First Group: General Discussion

[mbonwick]

Will be sold off piecemeal, with routes cancelled etc.

 

[overthewater]

I believe it will be within the next three weeks, around the same time as the Chester deal. Hopeful most of the drivers will join stagecoach.

 

[MK Tom]

Is that definite now that nobody's going to buy?

 

[mbonwick]

Nothing concrete has been said, but as I understand that has always been the plan - Northampton is just too small to have a realistic chance of selling as a going concern.

 

[MK Tom]

Nothing concrete has been said, but as I understand that has always been the plan - Northampton is just too small to have a realistic chance of selling as a going concern.

By which you mean the operation rather than the place itself? It never used to be small. Only a few years ago it included the 3, 5, 27 and the 202/3/4 services to Rugby.

I spoke to Uno and they said they have a desire to expand their Northampton operation into a full-size network but don't seem to have any plan to try to buy First's operation. Their plan seems to be to mop up some more contract routes for the time being. The thing is out of the First operation only the 2, 4/4A and 29/30 really carry enough traffic to be viable routes so I have a feeling the 23/28 will probably go out to tender if the simple de-registering does go ahead.

 

[robertclark125]

Not neccessarily. If First decide to de-register, it's possible that another operator, be it stagecoach, Centrebus, or whoever, running commercial routes in the town, may simply extend or divert existing routes to cover, or even may decide to re-register the whole route, and have a go at it themselves. If the 23 and 28 suffer from competition from existing stagecoach routes, the diverting or altering of their routes to cover would go ahead. Remember, a local council isn't gonig to throw vast wads of cash on a bus service when a commercial lternative already exists.

Incidentally, has anyone got a map showing the Stagecoach, Centrebus, and Firstbus services in Northampton, and the coverage tehrefore?

 

[A0]

Not neccessarily. If First decide to de-register, it's possible that another operator, be it stagecoach, Centrebus, or whoever, running commercial routes in the town, may simply extend or divert existing routes to cover, or even may decide to re-register the whole route, and have a go at it themselves. If the 23 and 28 suffer from competition from existing stagecoach routes, the diverting or altering of their routes to cover would go ahead. Remember, a local council isn't gonig to throw vast wads of cash on a bus service when a commercial lternative already exists.

Incidentally, has anyone got a map showing the Stagecoach, Centrebus, and Firstbus services in Northampton, and the coverage tehrefore?

This is probably closest:

http://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/...s/Documents/PDF Documents/Northampton Map.pdf

I don't think First has any area of Northampton to itself now - Stagecoach covers pretty much all the town in some form or another.

Centrebus only has a few bits and pieces, mainly contracts from taking over Judges.

In terms of Uno - they'd be mad to take over First Northampton. Old vehicles, high overheads, falling passenger numbers - no point in doing that.

What they are doing with the tie-in with the University (and taking over the routes the Uni had an interest in) makes far more sense. From there, they can look at the market and work out what they need to service - keeping the University as the key point - exactly how they developed in Herts.

 

[tbtc]

So despite the talk of £100 million, we might see First just abandoning North Devon, Northampton, East Lothian, Midlothian etc (and not making any money)?

 

[A0]

So despite the talk of £100 million, we might see First just abandoning North Devon, Northampton, East Lothian, Midlothian etc (and not making any money)?

Assume it's about stemming losses rather than making money - after all chances are they're going to make a loss on West Coast as well.....

 

[tbtc]

Assume it's about stemming losses rather than making money - after all chances are they're going to make a loss on West Coast as well.....

If they are just ditching bits of unprofitable business then fair enough, but when a private company talks of making large sums by selling off parts of their company then just gives them away then shareholders are going to be confused/ unhappy. Looks like a pretty confused "strategy".

 

[overthewater]

Uni would be best just to sit back operate the uni service and see what happens. Maybe at new year see where there could expand, I believe there plenty of scope for more services in the town, just look at Kings health?

 

[sonic2009]

Any news on Kidderminster or Redditch?

 

[Scania3379man]

And Wigan please, thank you.

Martyn

Any news on Kidderminster or Redditch?

 

[MK Tom]

This is probably closest:

http://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/...s/Documents/PDF Documents/Northampton Map.pdf

I don't think First has any area of Northampton to itself now - Stagecoach covers pretty much all the town in some form or another.

Centrebus only has a few bits and pieces, mainly contracts from taking over Judges.

In terms of Uno - they'd be mad to take over First Northampton. Old vehicles, high overheads, falling passenger numbers - no point in doing that.

What they are doing with the tie-in with the University (and taking over the routes the Uni had an interest in) makes far more sense. From there, they can look at the market and work out what they need to service - keeping the University as the key point - exactly how they developed in Herts.

Look at the bottom part of the map around Hunsbury. First operate the 12 and 28, so they still dominate that area around Camp Hill. Also at the top, the area covered by the 4/4A is pretty much their territory. Apart from that their routes are competed with (the 29/30 by Meridian's joke known as the 31 and the 2 by Stagecoach's 1 and 7. The 23 doesn't really count as it only runs on weekday peaks).

 

[robertclark125]

On a general view, First were looking to get £100 million from sales. The thing is, given how badly some of the areas that are rumoured to be up for sale may be doing, did First ever realistically expect £100 million? And the market wil ltry and drive the price as low as possible.

Putting it in two ways, you're not going to pay £12 for something you think you can get for £10. The second is that the quality of the vehicles in these operations, as well as the quality of the operations i.e. the income they bring in, could also make the 3100 million more hopeful than realistic. Or, if you are trying to sell a ford, you can't charge ferrari prices.

 

[tractor]

Has,anybody any information about what's going on in Kidderminster?heard rumors about first selling Kidderminster.

 

[tbtc]

On a general view, First were looking to get £100 million from sales. The thing is, given how badly some of the areas that are rumoured to be up for sale may be doing, did First ever realistically expect £100 million? And the market wil ltry and drive the price as low as possible.

Putting it in two ways, you're not going to pay £12 for something you think you can get for £10. The second is that the quality of the vehicles in these operations, as well as the quality of the operations i.e. the income they bring in, could also make the 3100 million more hopeful than realistic. Or, if you are trying to sell a ford, you can't charge ferrari prices.

I'd be interested to see where the £100m figure came from. Was that the assumed market value for certain depots (Dalkeith, Mussleburgh, Northampton etc), or is the £100m required to balance the books (or pay the bond for the WCML franchise!), so if they've not reached £100m from Devon/ East Lothian etc then does this mean they'd need to flog more?

Seems odd to say "we want to raise £100m" without knowing whether that's an absolute or relative amount.

 

[overthewater]

Has,anybody any information about what's going on in Kidderminster?heard rumors about first selling Kidderminster.

And Wigan please, thank you.
Martyn

At this moment of time there is NO details about what is going on at either places. Its believe there will be no official word from first about anything until after all Olympic duties are dealt with because there don't want bad press.

The Talk on the street is there will NOT be the first place to get any announcement, with that honer may be Chester, Northampton and First Scotland east, who knows. BUT some people who claim to be in the know, and say the list etc is all crap are wrong.....

I'd be interested to see where the £100m figure came from. Was that the assumed market value for certain depots (Dalkeith, Mussleburgh, Northampton etc), or is the £100m required to balance the books (or pay the bond for the WCML franchise!), so if they've not reached £100m from Devon/ East Lothian etc then does this mean they'd need to flog more?
Seems odd to say "we want to raise £100m" without knowing whether that's an absolute or relative amount.

There have already made £16.8Million, with only £83million to go..... But Land at which the depots sit can still bring in some cash either way

 

[robertclark125]

Of course, although we're in a recession, developers will still want land to develop, and are prepared to pay for it. Mind you, the surplus buses in areas like Barnstaple, they'll generate a few quid too.

 

[WatcherZero]

There have already made £16.8Million, with only £83million to go..... But Land at which the depots sit can still bring in some cash either way

The £14m London sale went through but I thought the competition commision blocked the North Devon £2.8m sale.

 

[overthewater]

The £14m London sale went through but I thought the competition commision blocked the North Devon £2.8m sale.

I think that amount relates to King Lynn being sold off.

 

[Volvodart]

The King's Lynn disposal figure has not been disclosed, but it is 15 buses (half of North Devon), so it is unlikely to have raised that amount.

 

[overthewater]

What else's has been sold?

 

[IanXC]

I only got a quick glimpse this morning, bit there appeared to be a number of apparently new, certainly newly painted, advert free, shiney double deckers at James Street in York this morning. Perhaps its a keeper after all?

 

[overthewater]

It take in about 13 days time ( a week on Monday) we will finally found out what's going on with first?

 

[tbtc]

The Falkirk area changes suggest that they have no plans to sell it off (why go through the pain of restructuring many/most routes inc pulling out of tenders when you are planning a sale?).

However, neighbouring places don't seem to be affected (other than the Falkirk - Livingston service being cut back to Bathgate - making the West Lothian operation more "stand alone"...).

 

[overthewater]

The Falkirk area changes suggest that they have no plans to sell it off (why go through the pain of restructuring many/most routes inc pulling out of tenders when you are planning a sale?).

However, neighbouring places don't seem to be affected (other than the Falkirk - Livingston service being cut back to Bathgate - making the West Lothian operation more "stand alone"...).

Its gets worse its believed there have lost all there council contract work in west Lothian

 

[robertclark125]

Its gets worse its believed there have lost all there council contract work in west Lothian

And that makes it difficult to work out if Livingston depot will go or not. If it does, First will definitley NOT get what they would've hoped for. As an aside, these firms that have the work, could then also start commercial oeprations in competition with First. Of course, we don't yet know who's won the tenders. It's thought Prentice westwood, EM Horsburgh, and Blue bus of shotts have won tenders. Of course, no one saw Stagecoach winning the 15 contract in Falkirk, so let's see what "surprises" there are!

 

[tbtc]

Losing/ handing back tendered work is the worst time to sell a business - much better to win tenders and then sell (with that guaranteed income stream).

If West Lothian were going then I just hope it gets a better operator to invest in the services, compared to the "death of a thousand cuts" its had over the past twenty years.

 

[overthewater]

And that makes it difficult to work out if Livingston depot will go or not. If it does, First will definitley NOT get what they would've hoped for. As an aside, these firms that have the work, could then also start commercial oeprations in competition with First. Of course, we don't yet know who's won the tenders. It's thought Prentice westwood, EM Horsburgh, and Blue bus of shotts have won tenders. Of course, no one saw Stagecoach winning the 15 contract in Falkirk, so let's see what "surprises" there are!

I doubt there will be many surprise, Also It believed EM have overbid for work and for the past week first may have won back something. I doubt EM could start Commercial work as there will be far to busy with there contracts