FGW Franchise

[The Ham]

With 7 x 9 coach sets chances are there will still be at least 5 services a day which will have more seats than at present (bearing in mind that the class 800's have 18% more seats than the current HST's). That's before even allowing for the fact that it is possible to run one set a day from Penzance to Paddington, back again and still have time to run it back up to Paddington in one day on the current timings and with an hour at each end.

Therefore there is a risk that just less than half the services (London - Cornwall services) which currently run as HST's would need to be run as 5 coach trains, however each of those services would still have about 59% of the capacity of a HST meaning that over the day there would still be a 91.5% of the seats that there are currently are over the same number of services (i.e. nine) without any services running with more than one set or any extra services.

Class 800 has 630 seats whilst HST has about 535 (assuming the 18% more capacity figure is right), therefore 5 x 630 = 3150 plus 4 x 315 = 1260 is 4410 vs 9 HST x 535 = 4815 .

To get to within 2% of the existing total there would just need to be 1 extra 5 coach set (either run as a pair with another or on its own), whilst 2 extra sets gets it to just over 4.5% more than at present.

I would have thought that Truro to Penzance (for example) probably wouldn't need to have more than a few percent more total seats over the day than at present for quite a long time (even allowing for growth), however add in a few more non London bound services (with the same type of trains) as well and I wouldn't think it would be a problem at all.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I keep seeing references to the fact that these will have larger fuel tanks because of the longer journeys to Penzance. Does this throw into doubt the ability of the class 800s to make it up to Inverness, considering the off-the-wires running from Edinburgh-Inverness will be similar (albeit a bit shorter than) to Newbury-Penzance.

Or is it that they'll need them because of the fact that their power packs will be more fuel hungry over that period?

 

[hwl]

I keep seeing references to the fact that these will have larger fuel tanks because of the longer journeys to Penzance. Does this throw into doubt the ability of the class 800s to make it up to Inverness, considering the off-the-wires running from Edinburgh-Inverness will be similar (albeit a bit shorter than) to Newbury-Penzance.

Or is it that they'll need them because of the fact that their power packs will be more fuel hungry over that period?

Add possibly more intensive diagramming so there is less opportunity to refuel during the day?

 

[33Hz]

Running at higher speeds on FGW?

 

[The Ham]

...all of the above and maybe even to allow for being able (just about within the current timings) to do the journey one and a half times a day (i.e. PAD - PZN - PAD - PNZ).

 

[33Hz]

If they think they can squeeze more power out of the engine, what chance it turning up on the ICEC fleet too?


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Running the North Downs Line as a diesel island cannot be a long term solution. The 165/166s that would be freed up by electrification would deliver significant value elsewhere particularly as, currently, they have quite a few useful years of service left in them.

As battery-tech is nowhere near being viable for the line and wiring places like Guildford and Reading-Wokingham is a long way off, will a 3rd rail infill be approved sooner rather than later?

(I appreciate the cost challenges regarding the remote locations of some of the sub-stations that would be needed between Guildford and Reigate).

Actually I would think this line is ideal for battery tech.

A class 165 has 350 bhp / 261 kW max output engines.

The longest unpowered section is the 17 or so miles between Guildford and Reigate. This takes 30 minutes to traverse.

So even if we assume an average power draw of 200 kW, pretty pessimistic I think, that's a battery of 100 kWh needed. Not much more than a Tesla car.

Charging back up on the Ash to Guildford section would need around ten minutes so about 600 kW. That means a 3 car unit would draw about 2400 kW over this section with charging and traction current (I'm not including dwell times in Guildford station which would ease things slightly).

Batteries like Toshiba's SCiB Lithium-titanate type can handle that kind of power level over thousands of cycles. A battery of that capacity made from the Toshiba modules would weigh 1.2 tonnes.

 

[hwl]

If they think they can squeeze more power out of the engine, what chance it turning up on the ICEC fleet too?


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Actually I would think this line is ideal for battery tech.

A class 165 has 350 bhp / 261 kW max output engines.

The longest unpowered section is the 17 or so miles between Guildford and Reigate. This takes 30 minutes to traverse.

So even if we assume an average power draw of 200 kW, pretty pessimistic I think, that's a battery of 100 kWh needed. Not much more than a Tesla car.

Charging back up on the Ash to Guildford section would need around ten minutes so about 600 kW. That means a 3 car unit would draw about 2400 kW over this section with charging and traction current.

Batteries like Toshiba's SCiB Lithium-titanate type can handle that kind of power level over thousands of cycles. A battery of that capacity made from the Toshiba modules would weigh 1.2 tonnes.

NBfL (Aka Boris bus) battery capacity is 75kWh for comparison

 

[jopsuk]

If they think they can squeeze more power out of the engine, what chance it turning up on the ICEC fleet too?

The design spec for the first wave 800s has been locked down. At this stage, best not to change it. The additional AT300 order gives a chance to revisit the design

 

[ScotGG]

EMUs confirmed as:
21 x cascaded 365s
29 x cascaded 387/1s
8 x brand new 387/2s ordered as add-on to the Gatwick Express order.

Source: Railway Gazette and verified by Tony Miles on wnxx.

Chance of additional stock for southeastern receding fast? It is supposed to get 377/1s in 2018 but now looking likely to have to give up almost as many 375s around then to East Midlands Trains.

 

[21C101]

at this rate? The main HST fleet post 2020 will be the ScotRail "Seven Cities" fleet.

Or Chilterns. Marylebone - Birmingham HST fleet or the coaches used with class 67s

 

[northwichcat]

Chance of additional stock for southeastern receding fast? It is supposed to get 377/1s in 2018 but now looking likely to have to give up almost as many 375s around then to East Midlands Trains.

You've posted the same comment in multiple threads. Southeastern were lucky to be able to get additional stock immediately (the 6 x 377s hired from Thameslink), other areas have to wait before getting a single carriage.

 

[Haydn1971]

The design spec for the first wave 800s has been locked down. At this stage, best not to change it. The additional AT300 order gives a chance to revisit the design

Indeed, the new stock will probably end up being a new class or sub-class

 

[hwl]

Chance of additional stock for southeastern receding fast? It is supposed to get 377/1s in 2018 but now looking likely to have to give up almost as many 375s around then to East Midlands Trains.

TSGN are meant to release them by the end of December 2017 and as the 700s won't all be delivered in one go they should get some before then. TSGN have already released most of the 319s they need to before the end of this year for example.

What is the provenance of the 375s heading to Corby services rumour or is it a good way to make SET justify how much extra stock they need?
Won't SET struggle to meet the franchise commitment for extra seats unless there is a net gain in stock (and seats) once other commitments are factored out?

 

[33Hz]

NBfL (Aka Boris bus) battery capacity is 75kWh for comparison

Interesting comparison, thanks.

Checking the SCiB datasheet, you can see that the cell can charge to 80% in 6 minutes, 95% in about 10 minutes and still has 90% of its capacity left after 10,000 cycles at 3C discharge rate. Here we are only talking about a 2C discharge rate so that's even kinder.

https://www.toshiba.com/tic/datafiles/SCiBBrochure2014Final.pdf


So in reality I'd use a 110 kWh battery to give these margins, but that's still well within a realistic design.

These Toshiba batteries have been used by Mitsubishi on their electric cars for almost 5 years, so this is a tried and tested product.

 

[ScotGG]

You've posted the same comment in multiple threads. Southeastern were lucky to be able to get additional stock immediately (the 6 x 377s hired from Thameslink), other areas have to wait before getting a single carriage.

Sorry about that. It was in 2 threads and I thought this might be more suitable. 6 extra now is a drop in the ocean of what is needed over the next 5-10 years without any concrete plans being announced, as solid announcements have been made for various other franchises. It's increasingly difficult to see where any additional stock can come from in the near future without new orders being announced as Scotrail, TfL, SW trains etc have recently done. In fact, the vast majority of franchises seem to have substantial plans coming soon even if they don't get an extra 6 now. Northern with its 120 carriages, East Coast etc. SE is left with vague nods towards what might happen.

hwl - the 375's going to Corby was in Modern Railways last month.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern with its 120 carriages, East Coast etc. SE is left with vague nods towards what might happen.

Until this morning FGW appeared to be in a worse position than Northern. Now they know exactly how many carriages they are getting, what formations of train they'll be in and approx. when they'll be arriving while Northern bidders are looking at options for 120 carriages and will have to go through the tendering process before an order can be placed.

I don't know how many 377s Southeastern will be getting but I can't see EMT needing all 30 x 375/6s for Corby services considering the service is hourly and takes 1 hour 15 end-to-end.

 

[PHILIPE]

I see the units available to FGW have almost been diagrammed already on the Forum.

 

[jimm]

Or Chilterns. Marylebone - Birmingham HST fleet or the coaches used with class 67s

Chiltern have no interest whatever in HSTs. They have a dmu fleet with plenty of life left in it and more on the way from TPE, several rakes of updated Mk3s and six brand new Class 68s to power them on lease - all of which should see them through nicely until the point where electrification of their routes comes due.

 

[plymothian]

I see the units available to FGW have almost been diagrammed already on the Forum.

Saves the planners work and time I suppose.

 

[freetoview33]

what about this possible 13 period extension after 2019. When would that take it up to?

 

[northwichcat]

what about this possible 13 period extension after 2019. When would that take it up to?

It's likely the next franchise will be expected to start on the same date as the optional extension starts. However, if there's delays in awarding the new franchise then the optional extension will be taken up. At least that's what the case is with TPE so I imagine it'll be the same with other franchises.

 

[BR67]

what about this possible 13 period extension after 2019. When would that take it up to?

13 railway periods = 12 months, so March 2020. (a Railway Period is 4 weeks)

 

[jimm]

I'm sure it's just some wriggle room in case DfT stuffs up yet another refranchising process, or gets overwhelmed by workload, given that SWT is also due for renewal come April 2019.

 

[po8crg]

Chiltern have no interest whatever in HSTs. They have a dmu fleet with plenty of life left in it and more on the way from TPE, several rakes of updated Mk3s and six brand new Class 68s to power them on lease - all of which should see them through nicely until the point where electrification of their routes comes due.

The only new rolling stock I can see Chiltern being interested in for their LHCS service are replacements for the DVTs that they can seat passengers in. There's a suggestion that the 442 end-cars might be able to be converted into mark 3 DTSOs, which would add seating without adding to the train (ie platform) length or the track access charges.

Whether you could run a 68 from the tiny cab in a 442 DTS[O] is another question, though.

 

[Flamingo]

I noted in the comments thread about it on FB it seems to be confirmed that buffets will be removed, replaced in both classes by at-seat service.

First Class already has an at-seat service on HST's, but can be restocked from the buffet, and other items can be fetched on demand.

A standard class trolley was used on the 7 car HST's a few years ago, but was replaced with the "mini-buffet" HST's when they were lengthened back to 8 cars.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So another inter-city domino has fallen to Hitachi and AT300.
The DfT has got its way again, and by-passed the Roscos (again).
At the same time the IEP looks better value by the day, with four incremental orders in place (GW1, EC1, EC2 and now GW2).
I suppose it was unlikely that a new order would go any other way, given the investment elsewhere on the GW route, but it is a surprise that new kit was on the agenda rather than the economy option of reworked HSTs or cascaded 222s.

That leaves just two inter-city routes to decide their long-term fleets - MML and XC.
It begins to look as though MML's Meridians are destined for XC.

365s for Thames Valley?
How long before we hear Oxford complaining about getting Cambridge cast-offs?

And it still leaves the whole 86-strong 319 fleet.
Northern can't possibly consume that many without a lot more wiring.

 

[northwichcat]

And it still leaves the whole 86-strong 319 fleet.
Northern can't possibly consume that many without a lot more wiring.

Indeed. And even if they release a considerable number of their existing EMUs that just leaves a lot of other EMUs available for operators to take on.

The other option is making them a number of them 3 car so they mainly run in 6 car formations and a load of middle cars rotting away somewhere.

Although, someone was moaning about Southeastern not getting enough extra carriages before

 

[21C101]

365s for Thames Valley?
How long before we hear Oxford complaining about getting Cambridge cast-offs?

And it still leaves the whole 86-strong 319 fleet.
Northern can't possibly consume that many without a lot more wiring.

Thames valley are going to really love getting carriages that are basically identical to the 165/6s other than lack of diesel engines.

Corby - put the remaining 319s on St Pancras to Corby services and maintain them at Cauldwell, possibly transferring the service to TSGN.

You could even run them through to Elephant and Castle offpeak.
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Chiltern have no interest whatever in HSTs. They have a dmu fleet with plenty of life left in it and more on the way from TPE, several rakes of updated Mk3s and six brand new Class 68s to power them on lease - all of which should see them through nicely until the point where electrification of their routes comes due.

Probably, but they might be very interested in the Mk 3 coaches within them so that all the fast Birmingham services can become Silver trains.

 

[Class377/5]

Until this morning FGW appeared to be in a worse position than Northern. Now they know exactly how many carriages they are getting, what formations of train they'll be in and approx. when they'll be arriving while Northern bidders are looking at options for 120 carriages and will have to go through the tendering process before an order can be placed.

I don't know how many 377s Southeastern will be getting but I can't see EMT needing all 30 x 375/6s for Corby services considering the service is hourly and takes 1 hour 15 end-to-end.

Bidders can have firm pens with builders just like with Scotrail. And remember is min 120, penthouse for bidets to chew over.

As for Corby, idea is 20x 375 (guessing the/6 units of course) while getting 25x 377s from TSGN for a net increase of 20 carriages.

 

[Chris125]

4-car trains for Cardiff-Portsmouth seemed inevitable, but 5? From Cardiff to London in 1 hour 45 minutes

"Higher capacity five-carriage Turbo trains will replace older vehicles on the popular Cardiff-Portsmouth route from 2017"

Whether you could run a 68 from the tiny cab in a 442 DTS[O] is another question, though.

I'd have thought the different door design, the modifications required for use with the current sets and the lack of an on-board generator would all count against their use.