And events at TfL show that ignoring inflation will catch you out eventually, with rising costs and a stagnant fare box, giving dire consequences for the funding of the service. TfL has effectively lost control of its operation to DfT, in return for a bailout to cater for the Mayor's fares freeze and then the Covid downturn in usage.
TfL didn't have a stagnant fare box- Travelcards weren't frozen, regardless of the political headline. All their issues were due to Covid, just as it has been for everyone else in the transport industry.
Everything else has been political, trying to give Khan a bloody nose.
The TOCs haven't been lambasted for poor management, even though Covid is the biggest example of privatising profit and nationalising risk we've ever seen*.
(*I'm not saying it is wrong to bail out the TOCs- I agree with bailing them out- but I find it fascinating that TfL very publicly got "a bailout" but the TOCs' help hasn't even been publicly acknowledged)
Certainly seems to be a debatable point as to whether it has effectively been less hassle for the TOCs to be carting fresh air around whilst the Emergency Measures Agreements have been in place; those Open Access operators who weren't in receipt of such funding do seem to have promptly shut up shop.
I don't think "hassle" comes into it, but if you get paid regardless, why hurry back to a normal service?
If TOCs apply the permitted rise voluntarily, then they may be shooting themselves in the foot. As DfT aren’t a business, and the Treasury are basically the government’s expenditure controllers, I suggest it’s not their feet being machine gunned.
Regulated fares are only an issue for TOCs with a lot of season ticket holders- so the London commuter belt, and Northern. For everyone else, regulated fares stopped being relevant a long time ago. There's no scrutiny of Anytime and Advance fares, so they will be set at the maximum the market will tolerate.
Rail travel becoming a distress purchase- which the social distancing and mask rules guarantee- will only cause non-regulated fares to rise even faster.