Exit strategy predictions

[yorksrob]

That's an interesting point raised by @yorkie . In countries which have versions of an app already, are notifications reliant on a positive test outcome, rather than self-reported symptoms.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's an interesting point raised by @yorkie . In countries which have versions of an app already, are notifications reliant on a positive test outcome, rather than self-reported symptoms.

A logical step in minimising risk would be that they report, people are warned of the report and asked to isolate, then a test is carried out, and if negative they are notified that there is no need, but if positive they are then notified to arrange a test themselves.

Testing is key to this working.

 

[Mogster]

However back to whether a contact tracing app might work, there are some flaws detailed here:

Contact Tracing in the Real World – Light Blue Touchpaper

He makes some excellent points. Especially about the 10%-15% take up in Singapore an authoritarian country where people are used to doing as they are told.

I dont see how this is going to work in the UK and I’m not convinced it’s been the golden ticket in the Far East either.

On the bright side deaths and new cases seem to subsiding accross Europe and in the USA.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I personally reckon we will see they first stages of the exit strategy implemented early June.

The main issue with the lockdown the longer it continues is the effect on depression & mental health. The subject of hairdressers/barbers was discussed early on in this thread & although they are not regarded as essential services they are a key business that allows us to maintain our appearance & take pride in ourselves. If we are denied haircuts for months to come, a large portion of the population will start to look like Yeti's!!! This for me will then affect how we feel & ultimately lead to feeling depressed & down.

Gymnasiums are essential for a healthy lifestyle and I certainly miss going to my local gym. Again, its not just the exercise - its also a good environment that allows us to interact with other people. I have a feeling Gym's will remain closed for a while and sadly this will affect how people feel about themselves in not getting the exercise or socialising that they want. Many forum members may disagree but I do believe gyms can be managed safely if people clean equipment after they use it & ensure they have sweat towels at all times.

CJ

 

[Meerkat]

A logical step in minimising risk would be that they report, people are warned of the report and asked to isolate, then a test is carried out, and if negative they are notified that there is no need, but if positive they are then notified to arrange a test themselves.

Testing is key to this working.

I think the BBC said the plan was that you go orange when you report symptoms, and that status is reported to relevant contacts. You then get tested and a positive result gets a code which enables you to go red on the app which is then sent out to the contacts.

Gymnasiums are essential for a healthy lifestyle

They really aren’t!

 

[greyman42]

I personally reckon we will see they first stages of the exit strategy implemented early June.

The main issue with the lockdown the longer it continues is the effect on depression & mental health. The subject of hairdressers/barbers was discussed early on in this thread & although they are not regarded as essential services they are a key business that allows us to maintain our appearance & take pride in ourselves. If we are denied haircuts for months to come, a large portion of the population will start to look like Yeti's!!! This for me will then affect how we feel & ultimately lead to feeling depressed & down.

Gymnasiums are essential for a healthy lifestyle and I certainly miss going to my local gym. Again, its not just the exercise - its also a good environment that allows us to interact with other people. I have a feeling Gym's will remain closed for a while and sadly this will affect how people feel about themselves in not getting the exercise or socialising that they want. Many forum members may disagree but I do believe gyms can be managed safely if people clean equipment after they use it & ensure they have sweat towels at all times.

CJ

You make very good points. Great post.

 

[edwin_m]

Can someone comment on what I read on the BBC and pointed out earlier - can Bluetooth go through walls between terraced houses, floors between flats etc? If so then many people who haven't actually been in contact will be flagged up as having done so.

 

[scotrail158713]

Gymnasiums are essential for a healthy lifestyle

I’ve never had a gym membership and I’d say I’ve got a healthy lifestyle

 

[yorkie]

Can someone comment on what I read on the BBC and pointed out earlier - can Bluetooth go through walls between terraced houses, floors between flats etc? If so then many people who haven't actually been in contact will be flagged up as having done so.

From the link I posted above:

Contact Tracing in the Real World – Light Blue Touchpaper

...Bluetooth also goes through plasterboard. If undergraduates return to Cambridge in October, I assume there will still be small-group teaching, but with protocols for distancing, self-isolation and quarantine. A supervisor might sit in a teaching room with two or three students, all more than 2m apart and maybe wearing masks, and the window open. The bluetooth app will flag up not just the others in the room but people in the next room too...

 

[Mogster]

Same if you were sat in the pub or using public transport. Presumably everyone would be flagged within 6ft even if they were sitting at a different table in a booth behind or similar

Rapid reporting of test results to people with suitable devices sounds 100% doable however.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Same if you were sat in the pub or using public transport. Presumably everyone would be flagged within 6ft even if they were sitting at a different table in a booth behind or similar

Which is no bad thing, as there's a fairly high chance of spread in such a closed environment.

 

[Greybeard33]

It may sound Orwellian, but it can be implemented in a way that isn't. This topic is of great importance in Germany, since a police state is within living memory here.

The app detects 'contact' by communicating with nearby phones using the same technology used for wireless earphones and fitness tracking watches, and it stores a list of the devices. If symptoms then occur then the list of devices is sent to the provider who then notify the corresponding users. So "Big Brother" never has any movement tracking data, it just performs a mapping between device and user.

A group called Pan-European Privacy Preserving Proximity Tracing (PEPP-PT) is attempting to develop an app that addresses the Orwellian concerns.

A European consortium based in Switzerland plans to this week launch an opt-in location-detecting app to expedite contact-tracing those who have encountered coronavirus carriers.

The new group, named Pan-European Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing (PEPP-PT), promises a GDPR-compliant app that sounds a lot like Singapore’s TraceTogether service, but also offers considerable detail on how the service is designed to preserve privacy.

As outlined in an explainer: “All procedures, mechanisms, standards and code at PEPP-PT is continuously monitored by our security team. In parallel national national cyber security agencies and national data protection agencies inspect all of the above line-by-line on a regular basis and sign. We have always asked and continue to motivate security activities to get in touch to review and improve our code or procedures.“

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/06/pan_european_privacy_preserving_proximity_tracing_plan/

Brexit Britain is, of course, shunning this continental initiative and attempting to go its own way, as happened with ventilator procurement. I wonder which app will offer the better protection against Big Brother...?

 

[Mogster]

Which is no bad thing, as there's a fairly high chance of spread in such a closed environment.

If I’m sat at a table facing rear with someone sat directly behind me at another table facing front I’d say the chances of me being infected by them are next to zero. If they were sat at the same table directly facing me I’d say the chances were much higher. I don’t see how the app can differentiate though.

I’d be very interested to see how the whole system works on S Korea. I don't think it’s the ideal time for a field trip though...

 

[MDB1images]

I'm seeing enough non-Asians doing it for it to be noticeable! Generally older people so it may just be people who are more at risk taking more precautions, but it was interesting to see - I'll admit that saying everyone is doing it was probably an overstatement!

On the train I'd say I've seen a few extra passengers of all ages using them with them but the majority still not using them.

A lot of Chinese/Japanese on tourist trips have always worn them over the years, been a cultural thing for a while.

Like gloves I'm not too sure from the Coronavirus point of view how effective they are as the information is different from country to country and even the WHO advice, could do with worldwide clarity.

On a slightly less serious note my award for the most geared up passenger was a Gentlemen heading to Doha who had a full mask on along with one of those white police forensic suits complete with feet covered up!

 

[thejuggler]

5 live just had a public health professional on. The key is still testing. His analogy was if you don't know who has or hasn't had it you are trying to measure a piece of string without a tape measure.

The other issue is the test may not show who has had it due to the nature of the virus, some get it but show so few signs there may not be antibodies shown on tests, the issue then is can you catch it again?

Just announced France have just extended for another 4 weeks. I can see us following a similar pattern.

 

[Greybeard33]

For important teams you split them across floors. Awkward but means you don’t lose a whole team at a time.
I expect shop/office fitters are getting a lot of work putting in Perspex screening to separate floors into zones like big cubicles. Then insist on good separation, gel outside the toilets and by doors.
Obviously not foolproof but should be at a level where you reduce the number of people needing to isolate when one goes down.

Yes, this is a solution for offices. For construction sites and factory shop floors, maybe the workforce can be split into small teams who work together but maintain distance from other teams, so one team isolating does not affect output too much. On the railway, something will have to be done to limit staff mixing in depots, mess rooms etc., particularly for train crew and track gangs.

 

[Siemens Staines]

Can someone comment on what I read on the BBC and pointed out earlier - can Bluetooth go through walls between terraced houses, floors between flats etc? If so then many people who haven't actually been in contact will be flagged up as having done so.

Bluetooth has a range of about 10m in open space. The further the two devices are apart the higher the Bit Error Rate (BER) and when the BER gets too high the connection will be lost because the error correction algorithm cannot recover the data signal. 10m in open space is much further than the current 2m spacing for the virus so I do wonder if there is an idea to use the BER to work out how close people actually are, so if the BER is low the two devices must be close to each other.

The trouble is I am not sure Bluetooth BER is a hardware parameter that is routinely passed up to the operating system for use by an App, but I may be wrong about that. Irrespective of whether the App uses Bluetooth BER or a simple connection/no connection methodology there are other things can affect the quality of the signal and therefore range. One such is being sat in an electrically noisy environment such as an electrically powered train, so you can be sat right opposite someone and the BER could be be comparatively high. Conversely sat on a stationary train in a platform with another stationary train going in the opposite direction on the adjacent track then two people can be physically very close with a low BER, but with train windows between them there would be almost no chance of the virus being passed on (& zero chance if on sealed air-con trains).

So I am not sure how accurate this App will be but it will probably be better than nothing. Even if it erroneously flags connections when virus transmission hasn't occurred and misses some when it has then it should help towards reducing the R0. Just don't take the App as gospel Go/No Go which is how I fear many will treat it.

 

[yorkie]

I’ve never had a gym membership and I’d say I’ve got a healthy lifestyle

I think this is an interesting discussion but may be best in a thread of it's own, as there is a wider issue of the timeframe for different sorts of exercises being allowed. It's not off topic for this thread though but I think it could be a thread in it's own right if anyone wants to make one; I have some thoughts I would contribute.

That's all well and good, but say for example you have a school caretaker who lives with an asthmatic or a local government worker who suffers from diabetes who lives with someone who has to have injections which suppress their immune system. When would they be allowed to go out to work/do leisure things under your exit strategy?

School caretakers are still working* as they are key workers and schools are open* for key worker's children. I'm not sure what the position would be if they live with someone who is high risk, but it's a topic that would have already been raised as an issue by anyone who was in that position as they wouldn't have stopped working.

(* I'm sure there will be some exceptions; small schools may be closed with students sent to other nearby schools)

 

[Greybeard33]

Bluetooth has a range of about 10m in open space. The further the two devices are apart the higher the Bit Error Rate (BER) and when the BER gets too high the connection will be lost because the error correction algorithm cannot recover the data signal. 10m in open space is much further than the current 2m spacing for the virus so I do wonder if there is an idea to use the BER to work out how close people actually are, so if the BER is low the two devices must be close to each other.

The trouble is I am not sure Bluetooth BER is a hardware parameter that is routinely passed up to the operating system for use by an App, but I may be wrong about that. Irrespective of whether the App uses Bluetooth BER or a simple connection/no connection methodology there are other things can affect the quality of the signal and therefore range. One such is being sat in an electrically noisy environment such as an electrically powered train, so you can be sat right opposite someone and the BER could be be comparatively high. Conversely sat on a stationary train in a platform with another stationary train going in the opposite direction on the adjacent track then two people can be physically very close with a low BER, but with train windows between them there would be almost no chance of the virus being passed on (& zero chance if on sealed air-con trains).

So I am not sure how accurate this App will be but it will probably be better than nothing. Even if it erroneously flags connections when virus transmission hasn't occurred and misses some when it has then it should help towards reducing the R0. Just don't take the App as gospel Go/No Go which is how I fear many will treat it.

Smart electricity meters communicate with the remote display by ZIGBEE, which uses the same 2.4GHz frequency band as Bluetooth but is supposed to have a much better range. My remote display works in the hall, where it is the other side of a brick cavity wall wall from the meter in the garage. But if I move it into the kitchen, the other side of an internal door, the signal becomes unreliable. I understand other smart meter users have similar issues. 2.4GHz Wifi likewise struggles to penetrate internal walls and floors. I doubt there would be much Bluetooth signal from an adjacent flat/terrace/semi.

I believe the existing Asian apps use the phone's location services (Wifi + GPS) to determine proximity to other devices, rather than just relying on detection of a Bluetooth signal. These services are usually accurate enough to identify the individual property where the phone is located. Hopefully the UK app will be similarly sophisticated. When Google location history is enabled in my Android phone, the Google Maps Timeline keeps a spookily accurate record of my movements. I presume Apple devices are similar.

 

[Jozhua]

There is a much larger number of COVID cases than has been published by the government. Essentially though, I think this might be a good thing, as it means many more are immune than expected. To what extent though, no-one knows!

The Conservative estimate, taking case fatality rates (around 2%) seen in countries with higher levels of testing (16 per 1000), shows we have over half a million cases in the UK.

Then going with some earlier figures, which seem to hold up in US states who's testing hasn't been overwhelmed, seems to suggest 0.5-0.7%. In that case, 1-2 million have likely been infected.

It doesn't seem totally outlandish to think some are asymptomatic, some people's partners have fallen ill and they feel fine. A recent Oxford paper put the death estimate at 0.1-0.36% of actual cases. The 0.36% figure puts UK infections at 3 million, considering a lag time is possibly closer to 4.

If this is true (which would be a preferable outcome), coming out of lockdown may be less fraught, as many more people have immunity.

A successful antibody test could be a fantastic way of getting a realistic death rate estimate and containing the spread if it is as deadly as presumed.

 

[Siemens Staines]

Smart electricity meters communicate with the remote display by ZIGBEE, which uses the same 2.4GHz frequency band as Bluetooth but is supposed to have a much better range. My remote display works in the hall, where it is the other side of a brick cavity wall wall from the meter in the garage. But if I move it into the kitchen, the other side of an internal door, the signal becomes unreliable. I understand other smart meter users have similar issues. 2.4GHz Wifi likewise struggles to penetrate internal walls and floors. I doubt there would be much Bluetooth signal from an adjacent flat/terrace/semi.

I believe the existing Asian apps use the phone's location services (Wifi + GPS) to determine proximity to other devices, rather than just relying on detection of a Bluetooth signal. These services are usually accurate enough to identify the individual property where the phone is located. Hopefully the UK app will be similarly sophisticated. When Google location history is enabled in my Android phone, the Google Maps Timeline keeps a spookily accurate record of my movements. I presume Apple devices are similar.

Indeed, I had also initially assumed the App was just going to use WiFi + GPS which then have no real need to use Bluetooth at all. But the BBC article mentions that Bluetooth is being used to detect proximity between users. Primarily this seems to be a privacy concern so all that is known is that A was near B but not where A & B actually were.

Coronavirus: UK confirms plan for its own contact tracing app

App will send yellow and red alerts to those who have come into contact with a suspected carrier.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[edwin_m]

Indeed, I had also initially assumed the App was just going to use WiFi + GPS which then have no real need to use Bluetooth at all. But the BBC article mentions that Bluetooth is being used to detect proximity between users. Primarily this seems to be a privacy concern so all that is known is that A was near B but not where A & B actually were.

Coronavirus: UK confirms plan for its own contact tracing app

App will send yellow and red alerts to those who have come into contact with a suspected carrier.

www.bbc.co.uk

I doubt GPS would be accurate enough, especially in buildings and on moving trains.

 

[Mogster]

I thought phone gps and WIFI were only good for 5m-10m accuracy at best? Then there’s elevation data required if you’re in a multi floor structure.

If you use transport or go to an entertainment venue that circle could include a lot of people. Workplaces also.

 

[Huntergreed]

I thought phone gps and WIFI were only good for 5m-10m accuracy at best? Then there’s elevation data required if you’re in a multi floor structure.

If you use transport or go to an entertainment venue that circle could include a lot of people. Workplaces also.

Most phones have some way of measuring altitude/elevation so I imagine this would, with a bit of thought, be achievable.

I imagine public transport restrictions will remain and entertainment venues will remain closed until a vaccine is developed and widely spread.

 

[JonathanP]

I thought phone gps and WIFI were only good for 5m-10m accuracy at best? Then there’s elevation data required if you’re in a multi floor structure.

With apologies in case people aren't interested in the tech side - although GPS only offers 5m aboslute accuracy, providing a GPS device has a decent view of the a sky, the error is mostly systematic, not random. So GPS can be centimetre accurate - if you have a so-called "correction transmitter" mounted at a known point which broadcasts the difference between it's known position and the position it's own GPS receiver reports. The nearby mobile devices then use this difference to correct their own received position. Therefore for determining the distance between two devices it should be able to do a lot better.

The bigger problem would be lack of GPS reception at all inside structures, and the battery drain.

 

[Meerkat]

I believe the existing Asian apps use the phone's location services (Wifi + GPS) to determine proximity to other devices, rather than just relying on detection of a Bluetooth signal. These services are usually accurate enough to identify the individual property where the phone is located. Hopefully the UK app will be similarly sophisticated.

That involves a central body tracking everybody. That wouldn’t be popular.
The Bluetooth way doesn’t know where you are, just that you were near someone else.

 

[Domh245]

That involves a central body tracking everybody. That wouldn’t be popular.

That's where the news that Google and Apple are codeveloping a system that can be used by these sort of apps to determine where people (or at least, their phones) have come into close contact comes into play. When there's a service that can be pushed to almost every existing phone, and won't have been developed by governments, it's slightly more reassuring.

Coronavirus: Apple and Google team up to contact trace Covid-19

The companies plan to add contact tracing to their operating systems so no extra apps are needed.

www.bbc.co.uk

Apple and Google are jointly developing technology to alert people if they have recently come into contact with others found to be infected with coronavirus.

They hope to initially help third-party contact-tracing apps run efficiently.

But ultimately, they aim to do away with the need to download dedicated apps, to encourage the practice.

The two companies believe their

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Wow! A future where you'll only be allowed out of your home if you not only have a smartphone but allow it to track your every move! I'm not sure that's a society I would wish to live in, certainly not in the long term.

 

[edwin_m]

With apologies in case people aren't interested in the tech side - although GPS only offers 5m aboslute accuracy, providing a GPS device has a decent view of the a sky, the error is mostly systematic, not random. So GPS can be centimetre accurate - if you have a so-called "correction transmitter" mounted at a known point which broadcasts the difference between it's known position and the position it's own GPS receiver reports. The nearby mobile devices then use this difference to correct their own received position. Therefore for determining the distance between two devices it should be able to do a lot better.

The bigger problem would be lack of GPS reception at all inside structures, and the battery drain.

I'm guessing that the GPS receivers on phones are pretty simple compared with dedicated GPS equipment. Do they achieve the same accuracy and would they be able to take advantage of differential GPS?

 

[Bantamzen]

That's where the news that Google and Apple are codeveloping a system that can be used by these sort of apps to determine where people (or at least, their phones) have come into close contact comes into play. When there's a service that can be pushed to almost every existing phone, and won't have been developed by governments, it's slightly more reassuring.

Coronavirus: Apple and Google team up to contact trace Covid-19

The companies plan to add contact tracing to their operating systems so no extra apps are needed.

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh my days, Google & Apple co-operating? This really is the sign of the end of days....

Seriously, this seems like the best option, it doesn't rely on different countries having incompatible systems, giving a platform that would cover most of the globe. Of course there will always be security risks, this kind of application would be a magnet for hackers so would need robust encryption & protection. But if it gets us all moving a bit more I'm tentatively prepared to give it a go.

Wow! A future where you'll only be allowed out of your home if you not only have a smartphone but allow it to track your every move! I'm not sure that's a society I would wish to live in, certainly not in the long term.

It would be one of many methods, I don't imagine it would be the only test of being allowed out into the big world, but if you got a possible covid-contact governments could use it to prioritise testing. Makes sense if you think about it.