Exit strategy predictions

[Meerkat]

Would the return of a number of retired staff and bringing medical students to the front line not provide some of that holiday capacity?

They are the capacity, are only temporary, and if we don’t get the students back studenting soon then there will be a shortage later

 

[bramling]

Hairdressers might have to work outdoors!

Something to think about....
We keep mentioning keeping below NHS capacity but at some point soon we will have to reduce that capacity markedly so the staff can take a holiday - they simply can’t keep working at this intensity under this kind of mental stress

Absolutely. This has been in my mind for a while - it’s enough of an issue elsewhere, and must be even more so for the NHS.

A pretty heavy weight of responsibility has been placed on a relatively small proportion of the population in all of this, and eventually this is likely to buckle. I'd go as far as to say it's only really the lockdown which has prevented that from having happened already.

Something for the sunbathe brigade to ponder on. Personally I wonder if it might be necessary for some of the furloughed people to be given some essential tasks to carry out in return for their money.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Absolutely. This has been in my mind for a while - it’s enough of an issue elsewhere, and must be even more so for the NHS.

I doubt reducing capacity is really going to be an option. Though increased testing will mean those who are isolating may be able to return to work if it's proven they've just had a bit of the sniffles and not Coronavirus. Also in some non-medical roles further recruitment will ease capacity.

 

[bramling]

I doubt reducing capacity is really going to be an option. Though increased testing will mean those who are isolating may be able to return to work if it's proven they've just had a bit of the sniffles and not Coronavirus. Also in some non-medical roles further recruitment will ease capacity.

Just taking myself as an example, as of next month I start to have loads of annual leave booked. With some others in the same position and of course a substantial number of people off shielding, this will take our place to the point where we may have insufficient numbers of essential staff such that we cannot run a service. Now with planned holidays looking unlikely (especially May's) I would be amenable to cancelling annual leave, but only if I'm happy that everything is being done to make work as bearable as it is at the moment. That essentially means a continuation of the lockdown - I will absolutely point blank not be working with a repeat of that we had on "that weekend". Many at my place would be taking the same line.

 

[Mogster]

Just taking myself as an example, as of next month I start to have loads of annual leave booked. With some others in the same position and of course a substantial number of people off shielding, this will take our place to the point where we may have insufficient numbers of essential staff such that we cannot run a service. Now with planned holidays looking unlikely (especially May's) I would be amenable to cancelling annual leave, but only if I'm happy that everything is being done to make work as bearable as it is at the moment. That essentially means a continuation of the lockdown - I will absolutely point blank not be working with a repeat of that we had on "that weekend". Many at my place would be taking the same line.

In my corner of NHS lab services it seems most people who had annual leave booked for specific reasons, booked holidays away, have cancelled their leave and come into work. Mostly it isn’t altruism but a feeling that they’d rather save their annual leave for a time when they can “do something”. People vary widely it seems in how long they can entertain themselves in their homes for. This has helped ease the sickness problem for now. Of course we could then have another problem when many staff have large quantities of annual leave left by Christmas, we’ll see.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Of course we could then have another problem when many staff have large quantities of annual leave left by Christmas, we’ll see.

The Government has already said that people can carry their legal minimum entitlement forward to the next leave year, if that helps. Companies don't have to do it but they would benefit from not having a load of holidays in December.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just taking myself as an example, as of next month I start to have loads of annual leave booked. With some others in the same position and of course a substantial number of people off shielding, this will take our place to the point where we may have insufficient numbers of essential staff such that we cannot run a service. Now with planned holidays looking unlikely (especially May's) I would be amenable to cancelling annual leave, but only if I'm happy that everything is being done to make work as bearable as it is at the moment. That essentially means a continuation of the lockdown - I will absolutely point blank not be working with a repeat of that we had on "that weekend". Many at my place would be taking the same line.

I think you will probably find your contract allows leave to be cancelled and you would not have that choice. I've never worked on a contract that doesn't allow the employer to do that if needs must.

 

[Meerkat]

As NHS staff and families will be priority tested maybe they can be first guests as hotels etc open up.....

 

[bramling]

I think you will probably find your contract allows leave to be cancelled and you would not have that choice. I've never worked on a contract that doesn't allow the employer to do that if needs must.

I don't believe we have that condition. It can be denied at the booking stage, but once booked then it will be honoured.

 

[bramling]

In my corner of NHS lab services it seems most people who had annual leave booked for specific reasons, booked holidays away, have cancelled their leave and come into work. Mostly it isn’t altruism but a feeling that they’d rather save their annual leave for a time when they can “do something”. People vary widely it seems in how long they can entertain themselves in their homes for. This has helped ease the sickness problem for now. Of course we could then have another problem when many staff have large quantities of annual leave left by Christmas, we’ll see.

It's the same with us. Most would probably be quite happy to cancel leave, for the same two reasons.

*However*, there is a nagging feeling amongst some staff regarding the risk they're taking by being at work, this especially applies to those who are at the older end of the age range. The recent publicity regarding deaths with those absent of any underlying health conditions has stirred things up a little in this respect, and to be honest so has seeing Boris end up in intensive care at the age of 55. Likewise many staff they may consider themselves low risk but live with someone who might be older, again putting nagging doubts in the mind.

I think most people will help out *providing* they feel everyone is doing their bit to keep any level of risk exposure minimised as far as is reasonably possible. Having everywhere decked out with hoards of non-essential users does not reconcile with minimising the level of risk. As I've posted before, it's this which is causing quite a bit of anger to brew up. If everyone does their bit and follow the guidance as far as possible then likewise people at work will be happy to do their bit, in many cases going beyond in order to keep things ticking over. Likewise if we see a repeat of the national holiday play weekend then things will grind to a halt very quickly.

There will be a problem at some point with outstanding leave, and that will mean it's not going to be possible to just flick a switch and return to normal timetables. When things do start to be eased this is going to cause a big problem in respect of maintaining social distancing, such that I think the current push to minimise transport use is going to have to be continued for quite a while.

 

[Meerkat]

Can NHS staff sell their holiday?
They need a break so selling all of it would be unhealthy but they might appreciate the option.

 

[111-111-1]

The Government has already said that people can carry their legal minimum entitlement forward to the next leave year, if that helps. Companies don't have to do it but they would benefit from not having a load of holidays in December.

Obviously it depends on the nature of the business whether they need more staff in December. Where I am there is very few who want weeks off in November, December, also October, January and February except Xmas and New Years week (1/2 terms being a bit of an exception or Easter) so it would actually benefit them if people are using leave at that time so there are less people hanging around spare.


I think you will find a lot of companies being reluctant to allow staff to carry over annual leave it moves a problem into the future, when hopefully business gets better. Many are refusing to cancel booked leave or insisting on staff booking and using leave up.

 

[111-111-1]

I think you will probably find your contract allows leave to be cancelled and you would not have that choice. I've never worked on a contract that doesn't allow the employer to do that if needs must.

Employment law allows companies to cancel leave. Different notice periods depending on length of booked leave.

 

[bramling]

Obviously it depends on the nature of the business whether they need more staff in December. Where I am there is very few who want weeks off in November, December, also October, January and February except Xmas and New Years week (1/2 terms being a bit of an exception or Easter) so it would actually benefit them if people are using leave at that time so there are less people hanging around spare.


I think you will find a lot of companies being reluctant to allow staff to carry over annual leave it moves a problem into the future, when hopefully business gets better. Many are refusing to cancel booked leave or insisting on staff booking and using leave up.

We've had the same in that there's been a *reluctance* to cancel leave, however the exigencies of the now have outweighed considerations for the future in many cases. In other words parts of the operation have been under such strain *now* that there's been little option but to take the necessary actions and worry about the future when the time comes.

It's not going to help that the 12-week people will be expecting to take their leave when they return. *That* is going to cause an almighty amount of trouble and anger, guaranteed. Another reason why it's probably best to just let those who are working cancel their leave when they want it, as it will serve to keep relations sweeter. Imagine if someone at work is declined the opportunity to cancel two weeks leave now, on the basis that they might be needed to cover leave later for someone who is shielding? That would be more toxic than arsenic!

 

[yorkie]

...The recent publicity regarding deaths with those absent of any underlying health conditions has stirred things up a little in this respect,...

But it's a tiny proportion of cases.

Of course each of those cases is very newsworthy so the media are going to whip up a lot of hysteria about those cases.

Also it's not always clear if there was definitely not an underlying health condition; there was a high profile case reported a few weeks ago, where it was claimed there were no underlying health conditions but it then turned out there was.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also it's not always clear if there was definitely not an underlying health condition; there was a high profile case reported a few weeks ago, where it was claimed there were no underlying health conditions but it then turned out there was.

Though sometimes those might be minor and actually not the cause of death. I have very mild asthma, for instance, the only time it affects me is if I'm running, really (even cycling isn't high enough intensity to trigger it) - I would probably be put down as "underlying condition" but it would likely have had little impact.

 

[bramling]

But it's a tiny proportion of cases.

Of course each of those cases is very newsworthy so the media are going to whip up a lot of hysteria about those cases.

Also it's not always clear if there was definitely not an underlying health condition; there was a high profile case reported a few weeks ago, where it was claimed there were no underlying health conditions but it then turned out there was.

Not saying all this isn't true, but as you say with much publicity recently it's very much foremost in people's minds. Why take a risk when you don't necessarily *need* to?

To give a real-world example from my place. How would you feel if you were aged 63 and been advised by your doctor that you're starting to border on diabetes?

Yes you're right it's still the minority of deaths, and they *may* have had underlying conditions they didn't know about. But the latter could apply to all of us, and all this illustrates that there's still a lot of unknowns regarding all this. It's hardly surprising people are a little concerned that they might be playing Russian roulette with their life just through going to work.

It's this sort of thing

Coronavirus: What is the risk to men over 50?

While most people will have mild symptoms and recover quickly, some are more prone to getting sick.

www.bbc.co.uk

which is doubtlessly giving people the jitters. It doesn't apply to me as I'm still well below 50, but it does apply to someone in my household, and many colleagues at work. We've all now seen a high-profile example of someone in their 50s who had to spend several days in ICU.

 

[111-111-1]

They are going to have to open the barber/hairdressers within a month or max two!

Barbers and Hairdressers are one of those luxurys we see as nescesities, There are very few who really need for health or H&S reasons to have their haircut. The actual hairdressers and barbers I feel sorry for.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Barbers and Hairdressers are one of those luxurys we see as nescesities, There are very few who really need for health or H&S reasons to have their haircut. The actual hairdressers and barbers I feel sorry for.

And if they do need it for that reason (e.g. a tendency to overheat - that being the reason I have mine short and wear shorts in the middle of winter) then a pair of clippers ordered online will do the job - nobody needs it styling, a simple clipper cut will achieve the need and can be done on yourself, or have a family member do it.

 

[bramling]

Barbers and Hairdressers are one of those luxurys we see as nescesities, There are very few who really need for health or H&S reasons to have their haircut. The actual hairdressers and barbers I feel sorry for.

Excellent post.

At my place we have someone who's been doing haircuts. Clearly it's "at own risk" as there's no social distancing being followed in the process. From what I see the results aren't too bad, but I won't be partaking myself. If I get desperate I'll get my other half to have a go, if not I'll just grin and bear it. Pretty low on the priority list all things considered.

Like you say, I'm more concerned for the hairdressers. Especially as at the place I go to they all tend to be older, so may not be able to bounce back any time soon.

 

[brad465]

When it comes to haircuts at the moment, if getting it cut at home turns out bad the fact we're all in lockdown means this is arguably the best time to have a "bad hair period". Yes there's video calling and going to the shops, but wearing a hat will compensate, while there are no formal occasions to worry about an important hairstyle for a while.

 

[Mogster]

Can NHS staff sell their holiday?
They need a break so selling all of it would be unhealthy but they might appreciate the option.

There’s no provision for us “selling” or transferring leave unfortunately, we can buy more though but it’s calculated from grosse daily pay so it’s seen as a rip off. Some desperados do pay for it though We aren’t employed by the NHS directly though so our conditions are slightly different to hospital staff.

 

[Meerkat]

And if they do need it for that reason (e.g. a tendency to overheat - that being the reason I have mine short and wear shorts in the middle of winter) then a pair of clippers ordered online will do the job - nobody needs it styling, a simple clipper cut will achieve the need and can be done on yourself, or have a family member do it.

My point was that haircuts are seen as a necessity by many people, certainly in the hierarchy of freedoms they will want, and therefore are politically awkward and important in maintaining support for restrictions overall. After all those smug folk won’t want to look bad in the selfies of themselves in their big gardens self-righteously slating sunbathers in the park!

 

[bramling]

My point was that haircuts are seen as a necessity by many people, certainly in the hierarchy of freedoms they will want, and therefore are politically awkward and important in maintaining support for restrictions overall. After all those smug folk won’t want to look bad in the selfies of themselves in their big gardens self-righteously slating sunbathers in the park!

Some of us haven't had much time to enjoy our spacious gardens because we've been too busy at work! You know, that little activity which is keeping the country ticking over.

Seriously, I think it's hard to make a case for haircuts being essential - especially bearing in mind that it's pretty impossible to maintain social distancing whilst carrying it out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Seriously, I think it's hard to make a case for haircuts being essential - especially bearing in mind that it's pretty impossible to maintain social distancing whilst carrying it out.

And as I said because you can easily do your own (or a member of your family's) to the extent necessary using a pair of clippers purchased for £20 or so online.

 

[belladoona]

I think it may take some time to go back to normal, people are getting used to staying round home, And not shopping in town. I must say I don't mind being round the house and garden.

 

[9tfrizzco]

Mass mask wearing is of clear and paramount importance
Taiwan doesn't even have a lockdown or social distancing policy but they have managed to stay in control of covid-19
Back in january the government should have churned out masks and made it a massive media incentive
Reminder that wuhan was completely shut-down after 24 deaths. I actually totally believe chinese statistics and just think east asians are far more adept at dealing with crisis.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Mass mask wearing is of clear and paramount importance

It's really not. Don't assume that Asian culture (where you wear a mask if you've got the sniffles) knows better than the WHO.

 

[9tfrizzco]

Obviously particle filters prevent the spread of disease
There is not only worldly evidence that supports this simple fact , but also inherent conceptual evidence . You should take what WHO say by a pinch of salt, and not gospel truth

 

[bussnapperwm]

There is no clear exit strategy to the COVID-19 lockdown yet, but at some point, some restrictions are going to have to be lifted in the short to medium term to avoid long-lasting damage to our economy. There's been suggestions of schools reopening before the summer holidays and some non-essential retailers opening in the next few weeks, but there is no definite timescale for these so it leaves the door open to personal interpretation really, when do you think these restrictions will be lifted?

From my point of view, this is what I think will happen:

Exit strategy phase 1: (once new cases start to drop below 1,000 per day)

• Non-essential retailers including hairdressers and clothes shops can reopen if they limit the maximum numbers of customers in store at once to 15 (5 in smaller shops).
• Retailers adjacent to each other may be ordered to open on alternating different days to prevent an influx of customers queuing outside.
• Schools reopen to all pupils, but with different year groups in on different days of the week. Attendance will not be compulsory if students are in a high-risk category or have a key worker job to go to. Cancelled summer exams will not be reinstated.
• Citizens will be additionally be allowed to leave the house to buy non-essential goods, but only once per day and preferably at the same time as essential shopping and exercise.

Exit strategy phase 2: (once new cases drop below 100 per day)

• Lockdown to end for citizens not at high-risk or living with anyone in that category.
• Food outlets can reopen, but for takeaway and home delivery only.
• Sunbathing and having picnics in parks close to home will be allowed, but police patrols will be increased to ensure people are still observing social distancing rules.
• Some low-key sports matches can resume behind closed doors.

Exit strategy phase 3: (once an antibody test has been rolled out)

• All citizens who have had the antibody test and proven they are immune will be given an immunity certificate.
• Entertainment venues including pubs, gyms, clubs and cinemas can reopen if they only let in people who have and show proof of an immunity certificate.
• Anyone wishing to travel abroad must have an immunity certificate before doing so. Non-British nationals arriving in the UK must take the antibody test upon arrival or be refused entry.
• Lockdown will still apply to elderly and vulnerable citizens without an immunity certificate.

Exit strategy phase 4: (once a vaccine has been rolled out and is successful)

• Nobody will be allowed to leave the UK unless they have an immunity certificate or vaccine.
• Elderly and vulnerable will no longer need to shield.
• End to limits on how many people can be in a shop/venue at once.
• Work from home guidance relaxed.

Exit strategy phase 5: (once half the British population have had the vaccine or developed immunity)

• All social distancing guidance lifted
• Travel restrictions lifted.
• Nightingale hospitals to be reverted back to conference/entertainment venues.
• Massive 21st century Festival of Britain to take place.

That's all well and good, but say for example you have a school caretaker who lives with an asthmatic or a local government worker who suffers from diabetes who lives with someone who has to have injections which suppress their immune system. When would they be allowed to go out to work/do leisure things under your exit strategy?

Case in point: I'm a autistic local government worker who has diabetes, who lives with an Asthmatic sibling, another sibling who has Diabetes and ADHD and a mother who has arthritis and has to have injections for her arthritis.

At the moment I've been off work sick due to a leg injury, my one brother has been furloughed as he works in a restaurant and my other brother is off college.

When I come off sick, I want to be able to get to work (as being for being housebound for most of the last few months due to my injury - a haematoma which burst and had to require constant dressings - has really affected my mental health).

But under your plan, I'm not sure when I would be able to return to work/ride a few buses or trains to help me keep myself mentally balanced (and if it was stage 4, I certainly don't know how long I'd be able to cope before either ending up even more insane).