EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[bramling]

100 days to go and the hysteria appears to be mounting by the minute. I see we've moved on from the IRA and buying second homes in the hope there'll be an Irish reunification referendum to sham marriages to get a different passport.

I wonder what will be next!

Things seemed to have clicked into a rut for now.

May’s strategy is (finally and belatedly) to attempt to demonstrate that she’s serious about no deal. We then come to the “meaningful vote” (what’s the difference between a vote and a meaningful vote?), where given the lack of movement from the EU and how many MPs were alleged to be against it last week, it’s still hard to see MPs going for it.

Extending Article 50 risks exposing the government as incompetent and prolongs the situation, and I think a general election is unlikely because May knows the result could be carnage - either another indecisive nomansland result, or worse a Corbyn victory, or even worse Corbyn propped up by SNP.

Neither party seems to want a second referendum, as they both fear it could alienate substantial elements of their core vote - hard to say for which of the parties this is a worse risk. Add in the spectre of toxic voices like Campbell and Blair supporting this option and it becomes increasingly unpalatable, and in any case doesn’t offer a resolution as the result could likely be identical to last time, whilst if remain did win it could unleash serious division which could ultimately screw our political system for many years to come.

Will May hold her nerve and go for no deal? Or will she play for time like she’s often done before? Or will the EU cave in and offer something which is acceptable to enough MPs?

 

[Mag_seven]

Things seemed to have clicked into a rut for now.

May’s strategy is (finally and belatedly) to attempt to demonstrate that she’s serious about no deal. We then come to the “meaningful vote” (what’s the difference between a vote and a meaningful vote?), where given the lack of movement from the EU and how many MPs were alleged to be against it last week, it’s still hard to see MPs going for it.

Extending Article 50 risks exposing the government as incompetent and prolongs the situation, and I think a general election is unlikely because May knows the result could be carnage - either another indecisive nomansland result, or worse a Corbyn victory, or even worse Corbyn propped up by SNP.

Neither party seems to want a second referendum, as they both fear it could alienate substantial elements of their core vote - hard to say for which of the parties this is a worse risk. Add in the spectre of toxic voices like Campbell and Blair supporting this option and it becomes increasingly unpalatable, and in any case doesn’t offer a resolution as the result could likely be identical to last time, whilst if remain did win it could unleash serious division which could ultimately screw our political system for many years to come.

Will May hold her nerve and go for no deal? Or will she play for time like she’s often done before? Or will the EU cave in and offer something which is acceptable to enough MPs?

All this just because David "Call me Dave" Cameron was worried about losing Tory votes to UKIP!

 

[muz379]

Only an issue for people who holiday in Europe. Not an issue for the majority of us who do not go to Europe.

The passport issue is not just about Holidays though . Some of us might like the retain the right to live and work freely in Europe . You know particularly if leaving the EU actually doesn't turn out to be a good idea and results in significant economic downturn in the UK .

 

[birchesgreen]

Only an issue for people who holiday in Europe. Not an issue for the majority of us who do not go to Europe.

Yes and similarly the majority of us will not die if the medicines that people rely on can't get through, so why cares eh?

 

[nidave]

That annual ONS survey doesn't disprove the statement that "the majority of us don't go (on holiday) to Europe". All it does is list the most popular foreign destinations that UK residents visit for a holiday.

Add in all the non-EU destinations that UK residents visit for a holiday, and, most importantly, add in all those who holiday in the UK and its perfectly possible, nay probable based on a "simple search", that the majority don't go to the EU for a holiday. The ONS statitistics come from the International Passenger Survey, only surveying people travelling to and from the UK's ports of entry and exit. No domestic holiday travel is surveyed.

The following...
http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/artic...people-to-take-a-domestic-holiday-this-summer
... suggests more than half of UK residents had a domestic holiday in 2018.

The share of UK residents taking a holiday abroad from the United Kingdom was 15% in 2017 and forecast to be 17% in 2018.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/480160/share-of-britons-going-on-holiday-abroad/

Accusing people of not checking facts, then doing the very same is poor form. My stepfather was an ONS statistician. He conducted International Passenger Surveys until 2016.

He wasnt clear - onlty he can tell us what he really ment - I dont consider staying in the UK a holiday - but a break but that may be semantics.
Plus I am aware of where the stats came from - I read the link I posted. It was intresting.

Even so - Europe is the no 1 non UK holiday destination. But we are making it more expensive for these people. Plus considering a lot of EU nationals work in the local tourism industry and we will only let people who earn more than 30k come and work in the UK - how do you support the local companies without prices skyrocking. Who wants to do the work for a start - a lot of brits think cleaning a toilet is beneth them.

 

[furnessvale]

All this just because David "Call me Dave" Cameron was worried about losing Tory votes to UKIP!

So no referendum and 17.4m people would just have sat back smiling, sucking up everything the EU throws at us?

 

[DarloRich]

Will May hold her nerve and go for no deal? Or will she play for time like she’s often done before? Or will the EU cave in and offer something which is acceptable to enough MPs?

i honestly cant think anyone, outside of the most swivel eyed euro hating Tories, think no deal is a good idea. However that said we have to understand where the strength in negotiation lies. It isnt with us. Replacing May with Johnson or Mogg or Corbyn would not have delivered a better deal ( it may have resulted in a slightly different deal but not
]a vastly better one) . The bad deal on offer is about the best we can expect.

it is illustrative that reports from Euro-land of the negotiations suggest that while the technocrats were discussing the important operational minutiae of the withdrawal agreement May was most concerned, above all else, of shoe horning the phrase "an end to free movement" into the text. It shows, to me, the superficial nature of the entire Brexit process: Meaningless slogans afforded importance over detail, depth and accuracy.

We will suffer for this amateurish approach to something so important.

PS - I think we are heading for no deal and have been since May announced her deal. The problem is that due to amateurishness we aren't ready and have only ramped up the prep now, 100 days out. The bloody army are on standby to sort things out. The army. In Britain. FFS.

 

[Ianno87]

So no referendum and 17.4m people would just have sat back smiling, sucking up everything the EU throws at us?

Well, yes.

Until Cameron called the referendum, far less than 10% of the population considered EU and membership thereof a major issue in their lives. Wasn't a material issue until Cameron made it one.

 

[nlogax]

Replacing May with Johnson or Mogg or Corbyn would not have delivered a better deal ( it may have resulted in a slightly different deal but not
]a vastly better one) . The bad deal on offer is about the best we can expect.

Today's exchanges between the PM and Corbyn were particularly bitter with two weeks of festive shutdown about to begin and March looming large on the horizon. Corbyn is angry at May for running out the clock and delaying the vote until the new year - if it happens at all - while May is angry at Corbyn for not wanting to vote for it. I imagine she's also secretly angry at herself for just being so utterly incompetent. Who wouldn't be?

It's no clearer to me what it is that Corbyn and Labour actually want. Wishing for yet another election and the chance to get into power is all well and good but it won't fix the mess that the UK has created for itself. Any decent opposition would lay out a workable plan and let the electorate know what they plan to do. All Corbyn and co can magic up is an angry fog of bluster and half-baked soundbites.

 

[furnessvale]

Well, yes.

Until Cameron called the referendum, far less than 10% of the population considered EU and membership thereof a major issue in their lives. Wasn't a material issue until Cameron made it one.

Presumably far less than 10% considered MEMBERSHIP an issue so why all the fuss over leaving?

 

[nidave]

Presumably far less than 10% considered MEMBERSHIP an issue so why all the fuss over leaving?

What?
The fuss is over having the benefits of the EU being taken away from us - Lets try and put it a diffrent way (this is an analogy) You have food in your cupboard - you dont worry about someone coming and taking that away from you - or if you do its not something you dwell too much on - now lets say we had a vote and it was decided that I am going to take food from your cupboard for the next 50 years and you could do nothing about it as someone else told you it was "the will of the people" - I think you would not be happy and kick up a fuss.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It's no clearer to me what it is that Corbyn and Labour actually want. Wishing for yet another election and the chance to get into power is all well and good but it won't fix the mess that the UK has created for itself. Any decent opposition would lay out a workable plan and let the electorate know what they plan to do. All Corbyn and co can magic up is an angry fog of bluster and half-baked soundbites.

Basically they want at Labour Government. I suspect much of the Labour leadership has gone down with a severe case of optimism bias, and they think that (a) if we have an election now, they will win it, and (b) if they win it, the EU will happily renegotiate a perfect deal. Looking more objectively, I'd say neither looks very likely, especially when the EU have specifically ruled out renegotiating the deal.

I think the other thing that Corbyn et al are missing is that an election right now has the potential to tear both Labour and the Conservatives to bits - because with Brexit unresolved, both parties would have to say in their election manifestos exactly what they propose to do about Brexit. And there's pretty much nothing either party could put in their manifesto that wouldn't be instantly condemned and disowned by substantial parts of their respective MPs and memberships.

But it all seems a bit irrelevant because, barring something big and unanticipated happening, neither the Tories nor the DUP are going to vote for an election, and without the votes of at least some Tory or DUP MPs, an early election ain't gonna happen.

 

[DarloRich]

It's no clearer to me what it is that Corbyn and Labour actually want. Wishing for yet another election and the chance to get into power is all well and good but it won't fix the mess that the UK has created for itself. Any decent opposition would lay out a workable plan and let the electorate know what they plan to do. All Corbyn and co can magic up is an angry fog of bluster and half-baked soundbites.

Agreed - Corbyn is a waste of space other than to his cult. He thinks he can force an election that he thinks he can win. The strategy was described by his loyal toady Burgon ( who now seems to be the duty shadow minister) to be "ratcheting up pressure on Terresa May"

FFS. They are fiddling while Rome burns.

Basically they want at Labour Government. I suspect much of the Labour leadership has gone down with a severe case of optimism bias, and they think that (a) if we have an election now, they will win it, and (b) if they win it, the EU will happily renegotiate a perfect deal. Looking more objectively, I'd say neither looks very likely, especially when the EU have specifically ruled out renegotiating the deal.

I think the other thing that Corbyn et al are missing is that an election right now has the potential to tear both Labour and the Conservatives to bits - because with Brexit unresolved, both parties would have to say in their election manifestos exactly what they propose to do about Brexit. And there's pretty much nothing either party could put in their manifesto that wouldn't be instantly condemned and disowned by substantial parts of their respective MPs and memberships.

but: free Palestine

( PS I agree!)

 

[cb a1]

i honestly cant think anyone, outside of the most swivel eyed euro hating Tories, think no deal is a good idea.

Radio Scotland were interviewing the former director of Leave EU Scotland (or something like that). His view is that May's deal is pretty much what he believed the Leave campaign were asking for.

The leave campaign brings to mind the parable of the Blind Men and the Elephant with the 'No Deal' Brexit lot representing the bit just below where the tail joins the body.

 

[bramling]

Basically they want at Labour Government. I suspect much of the Labour leadership has gone down with a severe case of optimism bias, and they think that (a) if we have an election now, they will win it, and (b) if they win it, the EU will happily renegotiate a perfect deal. Looking more objectively, I'd say neither looks very likely, especially when the EU have specifically ruled out renegotiating the deal.

I think the other thing that Corbyn et al are missing is that an election right now has the potential to tear both Labour and the Conservatives to bits - because with Brexit unresolved, both parties would have to say in their election manifestos exactly what they propose to do about Brexit. And there's pretty much nothing either party could put in their manifesto that wouldn't be instantly condemned and disowned by substantial parts of their respective MPs and memberships.

But it all seems a bit irrelevant because, barring something big and unanticipated happening, neither the Tories nor the DUP are going to vote for an election, and without the votes of at least some Tory or DUP MPs, an early election ain't gonna happen.

This is why another election and/or another referendum are unlikely to happen - both parties know it will be a problem for them as they'll actually have to nail their cards to the mast. Unless an election is forced, and I think the only way that would happen is if the DUP decide that's what they want, and I can't see that happening (as things stand at any moment anyway).

Meanwhile todays Commons exchange was risible.

It's hard to tell if the current increased talk of no-deal is bluster, or whether the political establishment is now accepting that it's likely.

 

[Puffing Devil]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...haos-and-troops-on-standby/ar-BBR9FCP?ocid=sf

This was project fear - it's now project reality!

Treasury announces a £4.2BILLON spend on No Deal prep. 3,500 Troops ready to be on the streets - yes we're putting the army on the streets. Planes chartered to fly in cancer medicine. Social care reforms shelved. The NHS has become the biggest buyer of fridges in the world, when two weeks we were bleating about the odd fax machine?!

Did any of you Brexiteers vote for this sh!t? Are you happy with what you started? Want to go back to how we were?

 

[bramling]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...haos-and-troops-on-standby/ar-BBR9FCP?ocid=sf

This was project fear - it's now project reality!

Treasury announces a £4.2BILLON spend on No Deal prep. 3,500 Troops ready to be on the streets - yes we're putting the army on the streets. Planes chartered to fly in cancer medicine. Social care reforms shelved. The NHS has become the biggest buyer of fridges in the world, when two weeks we were bleating about the odd fax machine?!

Did any of you Brexiteers vote for this sh!t? Are you happy with what you started? Want to go back to how we were?

None of this is directly the fault of Brexit, but because of the poor way it's been handled. May has had how long to prepare for a potential no deal, the policy allegedly being "no deal better than bad deal"?

 

[Puffing Devil]

None of this is directly the fault of Brexit, but because of the poor way it's been handled. May has had how long to prepare for a potential no deal, the policy allegedly being "no deal better than bad deal"?

OFFS - we wouldn't be here if the vote had been to remain. Plenty of experts warned of this and the stance that would be taken by the EU if we voted out. May was on a hiding to nothing, the Brexit Secretaries have melted into the background when they realised that any deal would not be realised as promised.

A question @bramling Are you happy now, or do you want to rescind Article 50 and start again?

 

[nidave]

None of this is directly the fault of Brexit, but because of the poor way it's been handled. May has had how long to prepare for a potential no deal, the policy allegedly being "no deal better than bad deal"?

This is all the fault of brexit - no brexit -none of this would even be under discussion - so Yes this is directly the fault of Brexit

 

[bramling]

OFFS - we wouldn't be here if the vote had been to remain. Plenty of experts warned of this and the stance that would be taken by the EU if we voted out. May was on a hiding to nothing, the Brexit Secretaries have melted into the background when they realised that any deal would not be realised as promised.

A question @bramling Are you happy now, or do you want to rescind Article 50 and start again?

Anything which involves change involves an element of risk and difficulty, and it's how the change is managed which is all important. I don't think anyone really feels this has been well handled by May - and Labour have been no better, worse if anything using the issue as a way of scoring political points towards winning an election so Corbyn and co can get into power.

No I wouldn't rescind A50 and start again. We've spent two years bickering over all this already, it's time just to get on with it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

None of this is directly the fault of Brexit, but because of the poor way it's been handled. May has had how long to prepare for a potential no deal, the policy allegedly being "no deal better than bad deal"?

If the Government had started preparing for no-deal, wouldn't it have probably cost just as much, but just spread over the two years instead of over 3 months? After all, we'd still have the same problems of needing to stockpile medicines etc., and deal with sudden barriers to importing lots of products.

 

[nidave]

he PSNI will recruit an extra 308 officers and staff by April 2020 after getting £16.5m in Brexit funding from the Treasury.

The force bid for the additional resources in light of the potential challenges posed in policing the border after the UK's EU exit.

In May, Chief Constable George Hamilton confirmed that a business case was being drawn up.

The force was also asking for new vehicles and other equipment.

Mr Hamilton said the money would be invested in "policing with the community and keeping people safe".

Policing Board chair Anne Connolly said it was "welcome that the chief constable's bid for additional resources has been successful".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46623152

Is this part of the £4.2BILLON or extra money. At least someone is getting money to put more police on the streets

 

[nidave]

Anything which involves change involves an element of risk and difficulty, and it's how the change is managed which is all important. I don't think anyone really feels this has been well handled by May - and Labour have been no better, worse if anything using the issue as a way of scoring political points towards winning an election so Corbyn and co can get into power.

No I wouldn't rescind A50 and start again. We've spent two years bickering over all this already, it's time just to get on with it.

So again - No brexit - not having to put the army on the streets and not having to spend £4.2BILLON -= the NHS is current the worlds largest buyer of fridges to stock medicine.

 

[bramling]

So again - No brexit - not having to put the army on the streets and not having to spend £4.2BILLON -= the NHS is current the worlds largest buyer of fridges to stock medicine.

It all very well saying don't have Brexit, but this unfortunately overlooks the small matter that people voted for it, with the reasonable expectation that it would be competently delivered. Having a general election and/or a referendum doesn't provide a guaranteed way of taking this forwards - it's quite likely both of these would deliver identical results to the last ones.

Meanwhile the main focus of attention is on a sexism scandal...

 

[DarloRich]

It all very well saying don't have Brexit, but this unfortunately overlooks the small matter that people voted for it, with the reasonable expectation that it would be competently delivered. Having a general election and/or a referendum doesn't provide a guaranteed way of taking this forwards - it's quite likely both of these would deliver identical results to the last ones.

Meanwhile the main focus of attention is on a sexism scandal...

But that Brexit is a fantasy.

We should just stop. Ask again if we want to leave ( in full contemplation of the facts and risks and minus chancers like Farage and Banks) and then start again with negotiations. That would be mature and sensible so we wont do that. We will push on with meaningless slogans in the lead like "will of the people" taking back control" and "sovereignty". After all if leaving is so good ( and no one seems to be able to set out a cogent argument as to the benefits!) they would pi$$ a new vote!

We would laugh at other countries for such stupid self harm.

EDIT - I am annoyed people voted to leave. I think that is a mistake and one we will pay for and i think many were mislead by nefarious chancers with ulterior motives. I am more annoyed that people who should know better are messing about and making a bad situation worse in order to advance their own petty agendas. it is damaging our country and doing so for no reason. Pygmies the lot of them.

 

[Puffing Devil]

It all very well saying don't have Brexit, but this unfortunately overlooks the small matter that people voted for it, with the reasonable expectation that it would be competently delivered. Having a general election and/or a referendum doesn't provide a guaranteed way of taking this forwards - it's quite likely both of these would deliver identical results to the last ones.

Meanwhile the main focus of attention is on a sexism scandal...

Many people voted for a lie. Many people did not vote for the stupid spending now that could have gone to the NHS, amongst other underfunded services.

Let's have a vote now the truth is out and see if people want they are getting, not what they thought they were voting for.

 

[Puffing Devil]

I am aannoyed peoplevoted to leave. I think that is a mistake and one we will pay for and i think many were mislead by nefarious chancers with ulterior motives. I am more annoyed that people who should know better are messing about and making a bad situation worse in order to advance their own petty agendas. it is damaging our country for and doing so for no reason. Pygmies the lot of them.

Completely agree - when this is over hopefully we'll see a united middle ground party born out of this stupid mess and the self-serving MPs currently occupying the majority of the seats in the commons will be kicked out on are @rses.

 

[bramling]

Many people voted for a lie. Many people did not vote for the stupid spending now that could have gone to the NHS, amongst other underfunded services.

Let's have a vote now the truth is out and see if people want they are getting, not what they thought they were voting for.

In the grand scheme of things this spending is not that much. Perhaps we can take it out of the £39bn?!

 

[mmh]

Completely agree - when this is over hopefully we'll see a united middle ground party born out of this stupid mess and the self-serving MPs currently occupying the majority of the seats in the commons will be kicked out on are @rses.

There is a "middle ground" party which stood on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, yet people didn't vote for it. Why not?

 

[nidave]

It all very well saying don't have Brexit, but this unfortunately overlooks the small matter that people voted for it, with the reasonable expectation that it would be competently delivered. Having a general election and/or a referendum doesn't provide a guaranteed way of taking this forwards - it's quite likely both of these would deliver identical results to the last ones.

Meanwhile the main focus of attention is on a sexism scandal...

You really think you are going to get all the EU benefits by leaving the EU dont you? Oh, with the exception of those nasty nasty people coming over and working and taking up spaces on trains in the South east.