EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Railops]

Blimey, and there's me thinking we were still in the EU and will be so for at least the next two years :roll:

When did we leave...have I missed it??

Are you saying that an "immediate profound economic shock" wasn't forecast by Osborne ?
To list all the terrible treasury forecasts that haven't occurred in the first 6 months would take hours.

Nothing to do with still being in the EU and you know it, we were going to fall off a cliff - we haven't and Remoaners are devastated.

 

[northwichcat]

Britain ended 2016 as the strongest of the world’s advanced economies with growth accelerating in the 6 months after Brexit.

That can't be correct. Brexit is due to happen in early 2019 so the 6 months after Brexit will be middle of 2019.

Our economy has been very poor since 2008 so accelerated growth is really playing catch up. Like I mentioned earlier in the thread a new ASDA opened in the next town from me since the vote to Leave creating a lot of jobs but building work started before any referendum was confirmed to take place, so you can't say the new jobs were created despite Brexit! Walmart aren't exactly going to allow a brand new supermarket to be left empty because of a vote to leave the EU.
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Are you saying that an "immediate profound economic shock" wasn't forecast by Osborne ?
To list all the terrible treasury forecasts that haven't occurred in the first 6 months would take hours.

Nothing to do with still being in the EU and you know it, we were going to fall off a cliff - we haven't and Remoaners are devastated.

Have you missed that the value of the pound dropped to a record low following the vote. Then when Mrs May said we expect to leave in Spring 2019 the value started increasing again because she effectively postponed any 'profound economic shock' by 6 months by delaying triggering article 50 and given herself some time to prepare a plan. The plan which should have been done before the referendum and could have reduced the number of lies and contradictions that were made in the run up to the referendum and arguments about whether people knew what they were voting for.

 

[Howardh]

Are you saying that an "immediate profound economic shock" wasn't forecast by Osborne ?
To list all the terrible treasury forecasts that haven't occurred in the first 6 months would take hours.

Nothing to do with still being in the EU and you know it, we were going to fall off a cliff - we haven't and Remoaners are devastated.

Forecasts, as in "let's give the NHS £350m a week"?

Just remember, all the good economic news right now is because we are still in the EU and trading freely, we haven't left yet, and when we do all the figures until then are where the bar is being set.

Any downturn...any loss...after Brexit will (rightly or wrongly) be blamed on Brexit. Get your excuses in first - you've a hard act to follow!

 

[AM9]

Having listened to a lot of radio phone-ins last night and today it seems loads of Inners are now coming round to Outers. Even arch Inner Mark Carney has admitted he was wrong with his dire warnings of Brexit disaster.
I imagine another referendum today would see an increase in the Out vote.
Britain ended 2016 as the strongest of the world’s advanced economies with growth accelerating in the 6 months after Brexit.

Well maybe the fact that the growth is in new GBP which has been devalued some 20% since 23 June. How does it look when converted to USD or Euro?
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Having listened to a lot of radio phone-ins last night and today it seems loads of Inners are now coming round to Outers. Even arch Inner Mark Carney has admitted he was wrong with his dire warnings of Brexit disaster.
I imagine another referendum today would see an increase in the Out vote.
Britain ended 2016 as the strongest of the world’s advanced economies with growth accelerating in the 6 months after Brexit.

Well maybe the fact that the growth is in new GBP which has been devalued some 20% since 23 June. How does it look when converted to international currencies like the USD or Euro rather than counting our new low value GBP?

 

[miami]

Are you saying that an "immediate profound economic shock" wasn't forecast by Osborne ?

£300m a week worse off thanks to the collapse in the pound.
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Well maybe the fact that the growth is in new GBP which has been devalued some 20% since 23 June. How does it look when converted to USD or Euro?
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Well maybe the fact that the growth is in new GBP which has been devalued some 20% since 23 June. How does it look when converted to international currencies like the USD or Euro rather than counting our new low value GBP?

GDP Mar-Jun 2016: £466b @ $1.50/£ (value on referendum day) = $699b
GDP July-Sep 2016: £468b @ $1.30/£ (value at end of sep) = $608b
GDP July-Sep 2016: £468b @ $1.22/£ (value now) = $570b

GDP has dropped about 13% thanks to the referendum.

 

[AM9]

£300m a week worse off thanks to the collapse in the pound.
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GDP Mar-Jun 2016: £466b @ $1.50/£ (value on referendum day) = $699b
GDP July-Sep 2016: £468b @ $1.30/£ (value at end of sep) = $608b
GDP July-Sep 2016: £468b @ $1.22/£ (value now) = $570b

GDP has dropped about 13% thanks to the referendum.

Thanks for that, - very revealing. So now will the claims of 'World leading growth' etc., be considered as yet more fake news?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Are you actually admitting that we might leave then because as far as I can see most remainers simply don't accept the decision full stop.
Every time I see that horrible individual Farron on the tv I want to smash the screen as he represents the remain point of view which is to use any means possible to reverse the referendum.
Farron, Clegg, Salmon, Sturgeon are all in the same boat in that they want another referendum or to simply ignore the vote.
Every time you see a prominent remainer on the tv they always say - "Of course I respect the referendum decision - but" then give loads of reasons why they actually don't accept it whatsoever.

1 - You realise Farage and co would be the same if the result was the other way right? He even said as much himself.
2 - You also seem to be forgetting the referendum was just advisory. There is literally nothing to say the government have to act on it.
3 - Ignoring public opinion isn't always a bad thing.

 

[radamfi]

1 - You realise Farage and co would be the same if the result was the other way right? He even said as much himself.
2 - You also seem to be forgetting the referendum was just advisory. There is literally nothing to say the government have to act on it.
3 - Ignoring public opinion isn't always a bad thing.

In addition, there was no referendum on member of the single market. Staying in the single market along the lines of Norway is entirely consistent with the referendum result. Leading Brexiters told us during the campaign that we didn't have to worry about leaving the EU because we would still be in the single market.

 

[miami]

Thanks for that, - very revealing. So now will the claims of 'World leading growth' etc., be considered as yet more fake news?

No, because there are ways of interpreting it

Fake news is something that has no basis in rality. "Pound Soars" is dishonest, but it's not fake news. "Swarm of refugees" is hateful, but not fake news. "Boris Johnson becomes foreign secretary" is absurd, but not fake news.

Fake news would be something like "Theresa May to abolish parliament". "Nicola Sturgeon makes fishing illegal", etc.

 

[Johnuk123]

2 - You also seem to be forgetting the referendum was just advisory. There is literally nothing to say the government have to act on it.
3 - Ignoring public opinion isn't always a bad thing.

Yes I remember Cameron saying it was advisory and he may ignore the result.

 

[NSEFAN]

Yes I remember Cameron saying it was advisory and he may ignore the result.

Strictly speaking the only thing which will make us Brexit are political forces. The referendum act itself contained only instruction on how to hold the referendum, but not what the consequences of the outcomes should be. There is therefore no legal requirement for the government to invoke Article 50 at all, although there'd be a lot of upset people if they actively ignored the referendum result...

 

[Johnuk123]

Strictly speaking the only thing which will make us Brexit are political forces. The referendum act itself contained only instruction on how to hold the referendum, but not what the consequences of the outcomes should be. There is therefore no legal requirement for the government to invoke Article 50 at all, although there'd be a lot of upset people if they actively ignored the referendum result...

If they took it as advisory and ignored it then they would lose any credibility they might have had and you would see civil unrest on a grand scale.
It doesn't matter anyway as it's too late now and however much all the remainers want it ignored it won't be.

 

[NSEFAN]

If they took it as advisory and ignored it then they would lose any credibility they might have had and you would see civil unrest on a grand scale.
It doesn't matter anyway as it's too late now and however much all the remainers want it ignored it won't be.

I agree that the result won't be ignored, although because the exact outcomes were not specified there will be a lot of political fighting over what will happen as a result. EU membership may be binary as a statement, but legally it's complicated. There may be aspects in our relation with the EU that we'd like to hold onto, a big one being access to the single market.

 

[JamesT]

I'd be somewhat wary of doing a straight currency translation of GDP and declaring it's fallen. It very much depends on what proportion of the economy is dealing with other countries. If a company is solely dealing with UK suppliers and customers, does it care that what it's produced has fallen in dollar terms?

Before people jump in, I'm not saying it's all okay, but that it's somewhat more nuanced than the 13% fall figure.

Also, are these figures not normally compared with the same time the previous year like inflation, rather than an earlier period in the same year to avoid discrepancies? (e.g. Christmas makes December very different from March, whereas December 15 to December 16 should be comparable)

 

[EM2]

Are you actually admitting that we might leave then because as far as I can see most remainers simply don't accept the decision full stop.

I fully accept that we're going to leave. And I fully expect that the country will be plunged into chaos.
But hey, it's the 'will of the people', so get on with it and don't complain when you realise that the root cause wasn't the EU at all.

 

[AM9]

If they took it as advisory and ignored it then they would lose any credibility they might have had and you would see civil unrest on a grand scale. ...

Given the type of behaviour against non-UK residents shown in the immediate period after the referendum, I can imagine that to be true.

 

[northwichcat]

If a company is solely dealing with UK suppliers and customers, does it care that what it's produced has fallen in dollar terms?

How would that work?

Sales manager of British company takes the British built company car to British oil company BP to fill it up with diesel but BP are an international company whose prices are affected by factors outside of Britain's control. The sales manager then remembers he needs to fill out an expenses sheet. However, he can't do it on a laptop because there's no 100% British laptops and he can't even fill out a printed paper copy because the expenses sheet was created using a Microsoft product. He scribbles his expenses on a blank sheet of paper and hands it to the financial administrator but she has no access to the (American) SAGE system on a (part Chinese) computer and doesn't even have a (part Chinese) calculator so she gets out an abacus from 1930 to add up on. :roll:

 

[miami]

I'd be somewhat wary of doing a straight currency translation of GDP and declaring it's fallen. It very much depends on what proportion of the economy is dealing with other countries. If a company is solely dealing with UK suppliers and customers, does it care that what it's produced has fallen in dollar terms?

We spend more abroad than we send abroad. The fall in the pound means that the country is £300m a week worse off, based on our balance of payments.

Before people jump in, I'm not saying it's all okay, but that it's somewhat more nuanced than the 13% fall figure.

Yes, that's 13% wrt the dollar, a basket of currencies would be better, may only be 11%. International GDP is usually reported in dollars though.

Also, are these figures not normally compared with the same time the previous year like inflation, rather than an earlier period in the same year to avoid discrepancies? (e.g. Christmas makes December very different from March, whereas December 15 to December 16 should be comparable)

These were seasonally adjusted figures
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No, because there are ways of interpreting it

Fake news is something that has no basis in rality.

For those interested in fake news, and how it's different to the crap the express peddles, the NY Times has a story about how one fake news story made one chap thousands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/us/fake-news-hillary-clinton-cameron-harris.html

Mr. Harris started by crafting the headline: “BREAKING: ‘Tens of thousands’ of fraudulent Clinton votes found in Ohio warehouse.” It made sense, he figured, to locate this shocking discovery in the very city and state where Mr. Trump had highlighted his “rigged” meme.

“I had a theory when I sat down to write it,” recalled Mr. Harris, a 23-year-old former college quarterback and fraternity leader. “Given the severe distrust of the media among Trump supporters, anything that parroted Trump’s talking points people would click. Trump was saying ‘rigged election, rigged election.’ People were predisposed to believe Hillary Clinton could not win except by cheating.”
...

 

[Grimsby town]

Are you saying that an "immediate profound economic shock" wasn't forecast by Osborne ?
To list all the terrible treasury forecasts that haven't occurred in the first 6 months would take hours.

Nothing to do with still being in the EU and you know it, we were going to fall off a cliff - we haven't and Remoaners are devastated.

To be honest unless we triggered article 50 the day after the referendum, it was highly unlikely we'd see a 'fall off a cliff' style crash. The economy is almost solely being driven by consumer spending at this time. This is no surprise as 52% of people are probably fairly confident the economic effects of brexit aren't going to be that bad and some people who feel the economy is going to crash may be making purchase while the going is good.

However, we are now seeing the start of higher inflation which will erode consumer spending power and I wouldn't be surprised if consumer spending starts to grind to halt due to normal cyclical ups and downs before inflation is factored in.

Another issue is that inflation is eroding the probability of firms. Now usually the first things firms do is absorb those costs which we are seeing but if it looks like there is likely to be long period of inflation they will start to pass on the price to the consumer.

So we see a reduction in real consumer spending and therefore firms sales reduce. Again if firms believed this to be a short term phenomena they may choose to simply wide it out. However, with the uncertainty caused by brexit, firms will play if safe and start reducing costs by getting rid of workers.

Finally this reduces consumer spending even more and everybody is buggered as the economy goes into recession.

 

[cawky22]

Country is booming since the EU vote.
Unemployment lowest in ten years
Share prices climbing.
Why all the doom and gloom?

 

[Howardh]

Country is booming since the EU vote.
Unemployment lowest in ten years
Share prices climbing.
Why all the doom and gloom?

Yes, can Brexit match up to today's UK inside the EU success story??
We're setting a high bar, an above-par first innings total. Were gonna be comparing inflation, jobless, interest rates, share prices, tax rates etc from today and the next year or so to what they are 18-24 months after Brexit.

Good luck!!

 

[cawky22]

Country is booming because we are leaving the EU.

Confidence is sky high as we are on our way out. But more country's will follow.

The EU is doomed.

 

[Howardh]

Country is booming because
.

...we are still in the EU and continuing to trade fully with our European partners.

 

[cawky22]

Share prices shot up after the PM'S speech!

 

[EM2]

Share prices shot up after the PM'S speech!

Really?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38648388

The UK's benchmark share index lost ground as the pound surged following Theresa May's speech on Brexit.
The FTSE 100 share index had already been trading lower, but dropped further as the pound strengthened, and was down 106.72 points at 7,220.38 by the close.
For multinational firms on the FTSE 100, a stronger pound means profits earned overseas are worth less when they are converted back into sterling.

 

[Howardh]

Share prices shot up after the PM'S speech!

Will those prices be matched in 2019??

 

[miami]

Share prices shot up after the PM'S speech!

Actually they went down, FTSE100 down 106 points. And we've already explained the FTSE100 is actually down since june 24th the when you account for the collapse in the value of the pound, it just not as down as other investments price in GBP. Inflation is up, and with a weak pound I don't see that changing any time soon.

There are some brexit fans on this thread who make some valid points, I disagree with them, but at least they're often based on facts. Sadly you seem to be one of those daily express readers.

 

[47802]

Country is booming because we are leaving the EU.

Confidence is sky high as we are on our way out. But more country's will follow.

The EU is doomed.

Yes the Brexiters continue to make this point again and again ignoring the fundamental fact that we are still in the EU and the single market.

I notice that 2 banks were talking about relocating jobs today, and suspect that's just the tip of the Iceburg not just in the Financial Sector but many other sectors as well. Then there supposedly all these countries wanting to do trade deals with us, well there is New Zealand population slightly less than Scotland, and USA although when nut job elect finds out that current trading with the USA is more in our favour he might be less keen.

 

[Hornet]

"The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned the UK there is still likely to be "pain" ahead as Theresa May prepares to trigger the UK's departure from the European Union.
Christine Lagarde told the BBC the Brexit process would be complicated."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38671467

That would be this Christine Lagarde.

"Christine Lagarde convicted: IMF head found guilty of criminal charges over massive government payout
But former French finance minister, who faced potentially one year in jail, will not face any punishment"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ty-of-negligence-in-fraud-trial-a7484586.html

:roll: Crime, it seems, pays for the rich and powerful.

 

[AlterEgo]

"The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned the UK there is still likely to be "pain" ahead as Theresa May prepares to trigger the UK's departure from the European Union.
Christine Lagarde told the BBC the Brexit process would be complicated."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38671467

That would be this Christine Lagarde.

"Christine Lagarde convicted: IMF head found guilty of criminal charges over massive government payout
But former French finance minister, who faced potentially one year in jail, will not face any punishment"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ty-of-negligence-in-fraud-trial-a7484586.html

:roll: Crime, it seems, pays for the rich and powerful.

What does Lagarde's conviction have to do with her (fairly obvious) advice that Brexit would be complicated?