I'm still puzzled as to how you can confidently say which unit is running on how many engines, considering a fair few of your "poor performers" are actually running on 5 engines, some of which were delayed yesterday and Tuesday due to trespass incidents and various other reasons. Do you sit on the platform and note every 222 and 810 that passes?
IF there are sets on 5 engines that are 'poor' performers then it suggests some of those engines are not developing full power - or maybe a driver has been instructed to treat the set with kid gloves? Sounds like you might know more about that. Just because a set might leave the depot with all five engines running does not guarantee they are all healthy or contributing to full traction power.
The calculations are simple.
From each station, a train accelerating away from the station will travel through several signal blocks as it accelerates to full speed. If you calculate the times from the first signal berth that the train enters and then the same time at a signal berth a few blocks along, you get to see that good sets are able to set a ballpark time between the two signal berths.
The time clusters for good sets (5 engines) , average sets (4 engines) and poor sets ( 3 engines) tend to be grouped with a clear time difference between each group.
If you analyse the signal berth data at each location for several locations northbound and southbound - then a good set will consistently be in the cluster of faster times, average sets the same etc.
So imagine a set starting at Nottingham stopping at East Midlands Parkway, Loughborough, Leicester , Market Harborough and Kettering.
The times from each station start can be calculated for a set of signal blocks departing each station. Usually a healthy set will ppoduce good times from every stop. So a pattern emerges of the state of each set on each diagram.
It is possible that in a certain location a good set will record a slower than normal time between one set of berths based on its performance during the day caused by congestion, maybe driver making a slower than nortmal start etc.
If a set starts to generate a slower cluster of times during the day, it can represent either a driver that doesn't like to use full power or a traction power derate. I don't believe the tightness of the timetable allows for drivers to deliberately choose to use anything less than full power unless torrential rain is causing wheelspin.
We can analyse the signal berth data to see if there are trains close in front - and that can identify slow starts where the driver had to leave the station on caution signals.
On some days, multiple sightings usually confirm the performance statistics!
As noted in my previous post, it was reported that unit 006 was reported as being sluggish and at least one engine out - confirmed by the the berth timings. This is not rocket science.
We know Hitachi are a proud company that don't like to admit their shortcomings. They would not comment on the GWR GU (engine) issues, even though this became and is a major issue under investigation. So we don't expect anyone from Hitachi/ EMR to openly come on here and tell us that any if the sets are in poor condition - even if the stats suggest they are not!
Also a disclaimer, the set numbers are based on RTT reported set numbers for each diagram. So it is possible that if RTT posts an incorrect set number it can be reflected in my data. But I do record the diagram numbers and this can be corrected if such a discrepancy comes to light.
As stated above, I am hoping the situation will improve as more 810's ease the pressure on the 222's and allow some more down time for the 222's to get some much needed fettling up.
At the moment, no more than 6 or 7 sets out of 19 or 20 in service each day are performing to a good standard.