Electric Car Nation

[D6975]

I don't think this is at all true.

In 2013, 34.5% of all cars licensed in the UK were diesel, and we are talking about four years ago. Every year since then diesel vehicles have massively outsold petrol so it wouldn't be surprising of the percentage is equal or even greater in 2017.

That said, with all of the hoopla about diesel vehicles earlier this year, that trend is now likely to reverse.

I've now found the DFT data for 2016, 39% of all registered cars are diesel. That isn't a case of most cars being petrol. More yes, most no.

Already happened. Diesels outsold petrol cars from 2011-14. 2015 and 2016 however saw a reversal, more petrols than diesels sold in these two years.

 

[northwichcat]

I don't think this is at all true.
...
I've now found the DFT data for 2016, 39% of all registered cars are diesel. That isn't a case of most cars being petrol. More yes, most no.

So you found the statistics and claiming I'm wrong but haven't provided any evidence :roll:

So 39% are diesel and 61% aren't diesel. How many of those 61% are either petrol only or hybrid with a petrol engine? Without that information you've proved nothing at all!

 

[Darandio]

So you found the statistics and claiming I'm wrong but haven't provided any evidence :roll:

So 39% are diesel and 61% aren't diesel. How many of those 61% are either petrol only or hybrid with a petrol engine? Without that information you've proved nothing at all!

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2016

I'm still not sure of your point. You claimed most cars are petrol and not diesel (without any evidence) and it is wrong. Having the information on what combination of petrol engine the 61% doesn't matter.

Unless you feel that 61% is what constitutes 'most', I don't.

 

[northwichcat]

Unless you feel that 61% is what constitutes 'most', I don't.

By your logic if there were 100 people in a room and 61 were men and 39 were women and someone said "Most of the people here are men" you would argue they are wrong. Either you don't understand the meaning of a basic English word or you don't understand how percentages work - or perhaps it's both.

For the benefit of others that document you've linked to indicates <1% of registered cars are electric or hybrid.

 

[PeterC]

Unless there is a step change in battery technology and charging times I think that this is going to make rail more desirable for longer journeys.

At the moment there are journeys that I drive because once I am on the road it is easier to carry on rather take a longish journey to a suitable railhead and change mode and then take a cab or bus at the other end. If I am going to be sitting around somewhere en route waiting for the car to charge I may as well be sitting down on a moving train.

 

[Dave1987]

Of course with the will it'd be easier to automate and electrify a branch line train than a bus, though the Luddites will soon chime in and claim it's impossible. And the unions won't be able to stop it, as it won't require any staff.

Such things already exist in Switzerland in the form of some quite long fully-automated funiculars, not to mention a huge number of automated airport transits. Reduces the cost of operation massively, and could well save some less economic branch lines, and could potentially make some extra ones feasible.

A good trial might be Stourbridge - one unit, self-contained, no level crossings, dedicated platforms making fitting PEDs easy etc. Little different from a slightly long horizontal lift, and when was the last time one of those wasn't automated?

Still trying eagerly to put all rail staff on the dole eh? Well as long as you are ok with paying all the benefits of rail staff in the future.

The Stourbridge Town bubble car is completely different to the mainline railway. Even that though it's doubtful you could have no staff at all.

And I very much doubt this 2040 ban will ever happen. Doubt the Tories will even be in power then to put it in place.

 

[Dave1987]

Unless there is a step change in battery technology and charging times I think that this is going to make rail more desirable for longer journeys.

Battery technology is no where near where it needs to be for all vehicles to be electric anytime soon. Batteries also degrade with charging and degrade even more when you try and force charge them quickly repeatedly. So you will need to get new batteries fitted every so many years. And just before you do change them the capacity of the batteries will have reduced because they are degrading so you won't be able to travel as far. This whole 2040 thing is complete nonsense.

 

[Dent]

If solid state battery technology fulfills the hype (charging time of a few minutes and much longer life than lithium batteries) then yes. Toyota claim they'll have a car on the market using this tech by 2022.

How big an if that is is of course the key factor.

How would the necessary current to charge significant numbers of batteries in "a few minutes" each be supplied? Remember that charging faster requires more current, which in turn requires higher peak generating capacity and thicker cabling to carry the higher current. Also charging batteries too quickly will shorten the battery life.

 

[cactustwirly]

Hydrogen is a bit of a red herring, it is dangerous to store and expensive to manufacture. I can't see it taking off, and batteries are useless for long journies.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Still trying eagerly to put all rail staff on the dole eh?

No, trying to save the branch lines, staff or no, in a background of a potential medium-term massive threat to their viability.

Your argument is rather like the Beeching era "have it with driver, guard, ticket inspector and station staff or don't have it at all". I think rural DOO could have saved branch lines back then (after all the buses that replaced them were OPO, so who gained?), and as I've said before destaffing (to potentially guard-only operation or in some cases even total automation) could save them again.

 

[Dave1987]

No, trying to save the branch lines, staff or no, in a background of a potential medium-term massive threat to their viability.

Your argument is rather like the Beeching era "have it with driver, guard, ticket inspector and station staff or don't have it at all". I think rural DOO could have saved branch lines back then (after all the buses that replaced them were OPO, so who gained?), and as I've said before destaffing (to potentially guard-only operation or in some cases even total automation) could save them again.

Branch lines aren't under threat. In fact lots and lots of them are suffering from their own success and actually need more capacity from longer trains. You are talking nonsense. There are many branch lines that do directly compete with bus services but all I will take is an upping of the speeds on the branch to make the bus unviable. I'd be more worried about the viability of bus routes than I would rail branch lines. Having fully electric lorries and buses is a distant dream. Rural DOO would not have saved the branches that closed you have absolutely no idea what you talking about there. I think you are just trying to have a dig at the unions as much as you can tbh. I'm still trying to work out how you can possibly think that branch lines are suddenly under threat so need a drastic cut in staff to save them.

 

[radamfi]

Having fully electric lorries and buses is a distant dream.

I've been on a fully electric bus today.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Branch lines aren't under threat. In fact lots and lots of them are suffering from their own success and actually need more capacity from longer trains.

They are at the moment, but I genuinely believe an austerity Government would have a go with electric buses being more "environmentally friendly" to try to get out of coughing up the subsidy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've been on a fully electric bus today.

My local route (the 7 in MK) is fully[1] electric. So are the Red Arrows in London now.

And there have been trolleybuses for well over 50 years.

[1] Well, it has a diesel heater, which is sort of ironic.

 

[najaB]

Hydrogen is a bit of a red herring, it is dangerous to store and expensive to manufacture...

I don't agree with you on either point. We've been safely storing high-pressure gasses for the better part of a century and a half and have learned a lot of the tips and tricks. And you don't 'manufacture' hydrogen, you split it off a larger molecule. I agree that producing it from hydrocarbon sources is expensive - both in terms of energy and carbon - but if you've got cheap/excess electricity from renewable sources then it's basically free.

 

[Dave1987]

I've been on a fully electric bus today.

In the middle of a city on a short route by any chance?

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the middle of a city on a short route by any chance?

https://www.arrivabus.co.uk/beds-and-bucks/services/7---bletchley-to-wolverton/

About 10-15 miles long I think, with a running time of just over an hour.

 

[Dave1987]

They are at the moment, but I genuinely believe an austerity Government would have a go with electric buses being more "environmentally friendly" to try to get out of coughing up the subsidy.

So you think there will be an electric bus on the Welsh valley lines or the Norfolk and Suffolk branches or on some of the Yorkshire branches? Back in the world of reality an electric bus would never do the mileage required over the terrain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So you think there will be an electric bus on the Welsh valley lines or the Norfolk and Suffolk branches or on some of the Yorkshire branches? Back in the world of reality an electric bus would never do the mileage required over the terrain.

Never say never. Battery (and supercapacitor) technology is improving all the time, and that is the only real limitation.

 

[Dave1987]

https://www.arrivabus.co.uk/beds-and-bucks/services/7---bletchley-to-wolverton/

About 10-15 miles long I think, with a running time of just over an hour.

So yes then that is a short run.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So yes then that is a short run.

If that's your interpretation of "short" then yes, but it certainly isn't mine. It's comparable to a good many branch lines.

 

[radamfi]

In the middle of a city on a short route by any chance?

According to

http://www.londonbusroutes.net/details.htm, the route I went on is 5 km long, not that short compared to the typical local service in a medium sized town. In the same city, however, there is a 14 km long bus route run with some fully electric buses.

 

[Dave1987]

A decent length bus route would be something like Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury-Bridgnorth-Wolverhampton, a distance of 60-70 miles over fairly undulating terrain. When buses can do that length on batteries then I will believe it's viable.

 

[najaB]

A decent length bus route would be something like Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury-Bridgnorth-Wolverhampton, a distance of 60-70 miles over fairly undulating terrain. When buses can do that length on batteries then I will believe it's viable.

With ultra capacitors and graphene batteries, they'll only have to do Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury (charge), Shrewsbury-Bridgnorth (charge), Bridgnorth-Wolverhampton.

 

[Dave1987]

If that's your interpretation of "short" then yes, but it certainly isn't mine. It's comparable to a good many branch lines.

You do realise that a lot of these branches have direct services to a main city or mainline connection station? I know of lots and lots and lots of branch lines that are 10 miles and over in length so 20 miles plus round trip. Multiply that by around 20 trips throughout the day how many times would you have to change the electric bus over to get a full charge? Probably 20 times. And you won't give the bus a full charge very quickly so you would need a fleet of 5-6 buses to operate 1 route! Or simply put the OHLE up and have one train shuttling up and down all day.

 

[Dave1987]

With ultra capacitors and graphene batteries, they'll only have to do Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury (charge), Shrewsbury-Bridgnorth (charge), Bridgnorth-Wolverhampton.

Believe it when I see it......

 

[najaB]

And you won't give the bus a full charge very quickly...

Subject to electricity supply limitation, that statement won't hold true for much longer. Ultra capacitors allow near-instant charge and graphene batteries are in the lab stage which allow nearly as fast charging with much higher capacities than capacitors. You're talking a few minutes (5 to 10) for a full charge.

 

[Dave1987]

Subject to electricity supply limitation, that statement won't hold true for much longer. Ultra capacitors allow near-instant charge and graphene batteries are in the lab stage which allow nearly as fast charging with much higher capacities than capacitors. You're talking a few minutes (5 to 10) for a full charge.

Again I will believe it when I see it.......

 

[HSTEd]

Subject to electricity supply limitation, that statement won't hold true for much longer. Ultra capacitors allow near-instant charge and graphene batteries are in the lab stage which allow nearly as fast charging with much higher capacities than capacitors. You're talking a few minutes (5 to 10) for a full charge.

The electricity supply limitation is the rub unfortunately.

I am pretty sure quick charging buses are not going to go anywhere - if electric buses take off it will be whole-day battery range, if we can get it.

 

[Greybeard33]

I don't agree with you on either point. We've been safely storing high-pressure gasses for the better part of a century and a half and have learned a lot of the tips and tricks. And you don't 'manufacture' hydrogen, you split it off a larger molecule. I agree that producing it from hydrocarbon sources is expensive - both in terms of energy and carbon - but if you've got cheap/excess electricity from renewable sources then it's basically free.

Renewable electricity will never be free - the "fuel" may be but there are considerable capital and maintenance costs. If there is excess generating capacity at certain times of day or in favorable weather conditions, it is more efficient, so cheaper, to store the surplus electricity in batteries near the point of use than to electrolyse water, compress/liquefy, store and transport the resultant hydrogen then turn it back into electricity in costly fuel cells, wasting much of the energy in the process.