Disruption threads

[Bald Rick]

This has been niggling at me for a while, and today something occurred that triggered me to start this thread.

There are often threads started on the forum about disruptive events as they happen. Sometimes they are quite large events - pretty much every OLE problem on the ECML or track fault on the GWML for example, and sometimes they are quite small. Today’s derailment on the HoW line being the example that triggered me. https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/heart-of-wales-line-closed-27-08-24.272993/#post-6914441. It is almost comically amusing that the only people affected on the train concerned were one passenger ‘and his dog’.

And yet, last week, there was the largest single point* unplanned disruption on the network in terms of trains cancelled and passengers delayed, and as far as the search facility allows me, not a single mention on the forum.

So why is it that some incidents that affect very few people generate lots of comments, and yet sometimes massive incidents don’t?


* ie not a multiple location but same cause issue as often caused by extreme weather.

 

[43066]

And yet, last week, there was the largest single point* unplanned disruption on the network in terms of trains cancelled and passengers delayed, and as far as the search facility allows me, not a single mention on the forum.

Where and when was that, out of interest?

 

[Sly Old Fox]

A derailment will always be a more ‘interesting’ reason for a thread than a (eg.) signal failure/ole failure.

 

[Bald Rick]

Where and when was that, out of interest?

SWML last Monday. Police incident at Raynes Park / New Malden. All blocked for hours, evening peak completely wrecked. Individual concerned ‘in discussions’ with the Met.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Aug 2024 ==

A derailment will always be a more ‘interesting’ reason for a thread than a (eg.) signal failure/ole failure.

Well that depends how you define interesting. But in the case of the derailment this morning, the OP didn’t know it was a derailment when the thread was started.

 

[Egg Centric]

So why is it that some incidents that affect very few people generate lots of comments, and yet sometimes massive incidents don’t?

I think you can easily explain it by the following simplified model:

• Fewer large incidents than little uns
• Same proportion of passengers affected by the little uns in relation to their scale. In other words, if an incident affecting X passengers happens with probability Y, an incident affecting 2X passengers happens ith probability 0.5Y
• Non passengers affected by incidents scale differently - some will be watching out for all incidents and so the magnitude makes no difference. Some will be affected as much by 1 passenger as by 10. IOW in the above "model" the 0.5Y is affecting 1.5X (or whatever) others
• Propensity to post probably scales in a complicated way but is highly related to being personally affected while decreased by "oh someone has probably already posted about this"
• The above is not really a model but you are more coherent than me and hopefully get the drift

 

[eastdyke]

So why is it that some incidents that affect very few people generate lots of comments, and yet sometimes massive incidents don’t?

Forum Rules? Someone has to start a thread for comments to accrue.

Service disruption threads

Having reviewed recent threads discussing disruption on the railway we would request that members do not post threads relating to fatalities and other incidents (such as broken down trains or signalling faults) on the railway unless they require advice on their alternative travel options and/or...

www.railforums.co.uk

And in the 'one passenger and his dog' Heart of Wales thread the OP was seeking travel advice.

 

[yorksrob]

Surely it depends on whether someone familiar with the forum happens to be affected.

 

[Magdalia]

I think you can easily explain it by the following simplified model:

• Fewer large incidents than little uns
• Same proportion of passengers affected by the little uns in relation to their scale. In other words, if an incident affecting X passengers happens with probability Y, an incident affecting 2X passengers happens ith probability 0.5Y
• Non passengers affected by incidents scale differently - some will be watching out for all incidents and so the magnitude makes no difference. Some will be affected as much by 1 passenger as by 10. IOW in the above "model" the 0.5Y is affecting 1.5X (or whatever) others
• Propensity to post probably scales in a complicated way but is highly related to being personally affected while decreased by "oh someone has probably already posted about this"
• The above is not really a model but you are more coherent than me and hopefully get the drift

To make the model a bit more complicated!

Someone has to start a thread for comments to accrue.

That means knowing about the event independently of this forum. That's likely to be because the original poster are making a journey themselves, or know somebody who is. Other things being equal, people on long journeys are more likely to experience impact of disruption than people on short journeys.

On top of that, original posters are a fairly small subsection of forum membership, which is not very representative of the rail travelling population as a whole.

Some discussions "go viral". These will tend to be those relating to routes where lots of forum members have an experience or interest in the route.

SWML last Monday. Police incident at Raynes Park / New Malden. All blocked for hours, evening peak completely wrecked. Individual concerned ‘in discussions’ with the Met.

By way of example, compare this incident with the recent dewirement at Hitchin. How many forum members would have been travelling on the SWML on a Bank Holiday Monday? Compare that with how many forum members would be using the ECML and/or Thameslink on a busy Friday evening?

Compare also how many forum members have experience or interest in the SWML with how many forum members have experience or interest in the ECML.

From a Fenland perspective I see this with the comparison of how much coverage there is on this forum of incidents on the Kings Cross route and incidents on the Liverpool Street route. I'm not surprised at all.

 

[The exile]

Surely it depends on whether someone familiar with the forum happens to be affected.

And whether they are the type that can be bothered to post (or have a bee in their bonnet about performance on their local line).

 

[Islineclear3_1]

SWML last Monday. Police incident at Raynes Park / New Malden. All blocked for hours, evening peak completely wrecked. Individual concerned ‘in discussions’ with the Met.

This came up on my news feed but thought nothing of it as I expected it to be reported on the forum - strangely it wasn't...

 

[MrJeeves]

If it's something I'm used to, like Thameslink points or signalling failures, I can't be bothered to start a thread.

If it's something that doesn't normally affect me or is particularly interesting, I'll do it, like the buffer stop collision in Brighton a few weeks back, or things breaking on the WCML.

Also, I won't bother going out and making a thread 2 hours after the disruption has started even if one doesn't exist already.

 

[swt_passenger]

Another thing that often happens is that events that are completely unrelated, maybe 250 miles apart, get added to the same thread. An example a couple of days ago started with wires down in Northumberland, but quickly included trespassers near Stevenage while still under the initial heading “ECML problems north of Newcastle”. The title was altered later to include other areas.

So perhaps there’s a level of incident where a forum member doesn’t want to start a thread, but will happily add to another, even if it’s clearly an unrelated problem?

 

[GordonT]

Would there be a case for Major Disruption to have its own dedicated section within the forum?

 

[Purple Train]

So perhaps there’s a level of incident where a forum member doesn’t want to start a thread, but will happily add to another, even if it’s clearly an unrelated problem?

Yes. For instance, things going wrong on the Elizabeth Line yesterday evening, with several cancellations and delays - but, as the job wasn't entirely stopped, I didn't want to start a thread. "Only" (in the context of disruption threads) took me an hour and a half (for a 45-minute journey) in the end, so it didn't particularly bother me.

 

[yorksrob]

And whether they are the type that can be bothered to post (or have a bee in their bonnet about performance on their local line).

Yes, that will have an effect as well (guilty as charged )

 

[J-2739]

Would there be a case for Major Disruption to have its own dedicated section within the forum?

I would support this.

 

[DarloRich]

So why is it that some incidents that affect very few people generate lots of comments, and yet sometimes massive incidents don’t?

i suspect the difference between the views of the enthusiast and the views of the professional. A little derailment on a secondary line creates a frisson of excitement while a dodgy set of points at Jones Road junction creating 27000 delay minutes will barely register.

The second has a larger impact on the network as a whole while the former is more interesting.

 

[Bald Rick]

By way of example, compare this incident with the recent dewirement at Hitchin. How many forum members would have been travelling on the SWML on a Bank Holiday Monday? Compare that with how many forum members would be using the ECML and/or Thameslink on a busy Friday evening?

Sorry I didn‘t make it clear - it was Monday 19th, not a BH. Well over 100,000 passengers affected, probably nearer twice that. Comfortably more than using the ECML and Thameslink on any evening!

 

[Big Jumby 74]

And yet, last week, there was the largest single point* unplanned disruption on the network in terms of trains cancelled and passengers delayed, and as far as the search facility allows me, not a single mention on the forum.

Many former colleagues got caught up in that I believe, and as you say, not a mention on here by all accounts.

SWML last Monday. Police incident at Raynes Park / New Malden. All blocked for hours, evening peak completely wrecked. Individual concerned ‘in discussions’ with the Met.

As per above.

i suspect the difference between the views of the enthusiast and the views of the professional. A little derailment on a secondary line creates a frisson of excitement while a dodgy set of points at Jones Road junction creating 27000 delay minutes will barely register.

The second has a larger impact on the network as a whole while the former is more interesting.

I would tend to agree with this statement.

On a wider note Bald Rick, some known to me have suggested to me there seems to be a case in more recent times, when (in certain parts of the country, SWR included) bad news stories (railway related) are being buried, or at least not being aired, be it on forums such as this, railway related press, local (area) newspapers or whatever. This may be purely down to complete boredom/apathy with the whole thing after so many problems, which I hope is the reason, and not a deliberate attempt by those in charge (TOC Management/Magazine Editors etc) to try to hide, either individually or collectively the truth of the current sorry situation? I only mention the latter as in my last years on the job there was a noted shift in the (new) Senior Management style, which openly said 'we only say Yes' (as in we never say no) to changes/new initiatives etc. That is fine, and I was very much a 'can do' person by approach, but there will always be some situations when trying to run a 21st century service, and everything that involves (thinking here this latest mobility/LNER case that is making the news as an example) on Victorian infrastructure, and the implications of that, will mean that certain things can't be done immediately, or in some cases will never likely be done (within the constraints - £xxm - that invariably come with the ask!).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2024 ==

Sorry I didn‘t make it clear - it was Monday 19th

As I thought, That was the day!

 

[Horizon22]

Various factors probably including (but not limited to):

• Time and day of the week of incident
• Type of incident (OHLE and weather issues seem to be big news here, police related incidents less so. 'Novel' incidents also lead to discussion)
• Location of forum members (and their knowledge of the area/incident and previous travel on that route)
• Type of route (intercity disruption spoken about more than metro/suburban routes)
• Views of the enthusiasts (very broad but depends what people are interested in on a volunteer forum)
• Quality of the information disemminated from the TOC (if there are more questions / discussion more likely to lead to a thread)
• Coincidence (is a forum member directly caught up in it?)
• Worthy of discussion (were there decisions/actions taken that didn't seem directly obvious and warrants more conversation)

 

[Donny Dave]

I'm guilty of some of those factors. To give some context about this, I live a few minutes away from Doncaster Station, and basically overlook the signal on South Yorkshire junction that gives access to the station. Even without looking at the departure boards in the station, or various apps, I can tell without looking if there is a normal service between Doncaster and Sheffield, as I can hear the trains arriving and leaving.

Any oddities in the service pattern I notice very quickly, such as yesterday when 2 separate incidents affected the route. The first was a failed train somewhere along the Hope Valley, with also a points failure somewhere between Meadowhall and Doncaster. However, when I checked, both problems had been cleared, with only residuals delays remaining. That wasnt worth posting about in my opinion.

 

[ainsworth74]

On a wider note Bald Rick, some known to me have suggested to me there seems to be a case in more recent times, when (in certain parts of the country, SWR included) bad news stories (railway related) are being buried, or at least not being aired, be it on forums such as this, railway related press, local (area) newspapers or whatever. This may be purely down to complete boredom/apathy with the whole thing after so many problems, which I hope is the reason, and not a deliberate attempt by those in charge (TOC Management/Magazine Editors etc) to try to hide, either individually or collectively the truth of the current sorry situation?

Just for the avoidance of doubt, and I'm sure this isn't what you were suggesting but I want to be clear, no TOC, the DfT, or RDG, or similar person/organisation has ever contacted us asking us to play down disruption or similar. And if they did, we'd refer them to the reply given in the case of Arkell v. Pressdram.

 

[Horizon22]

Just for the avoidance of doubt, and I'm sure this isn't what you were suggesting but I want to be clear, no TOC, the DfT, or RDG, or similar person/organisation has ever contacted us asking us to play down disruption or similar. And if they did, we'd refer them to the reply given in the case of Arkell v. Pressdram.

If anything TOCs would rather it was "played up" so that the information is as good as it possibly can be to prevent further issues (overcrowdings / strandings / additional staff questions etc.)

 

[Nottingham59]

It is almost comically amusing that the only people affected on the train concerned were one passenger ‘and his dog’.

SWML last Monday. Police incident at Raynes Park / New Malden. All blocked for hours, evening peak completely wrecked. Individual concerned ‘in discussions’ with the Met.

To misquote Lord Northcliffe: "Dog delays train" - not news. "Train delays dog" is news.

 

[Bald Rick]

And if they did, we'd refer them to the reply given in the case of Arkell v. Pressdram.

 

[Alfie1014]

My train from Crewe got held for a short time at Watford Jn on Monday by a trespass incident at Wembley. I overheard the train crew talking about it and it appears it was a near miss with 6 individuals on the Up Slow. The reaction was hopefully once the schools go back there should be a reduction in such incidents!

I too was surprised that the SWML incident didn’t get a mention on here not least as ‘normal’ social media was full of it at the time?

 

[SCDR_WMR]

I was very surprised to not see a thread on Saturday regarding the cattle on the line blocking the WCML south.

 

[800Travel]

Personally, I’m very appreciative for the disruption threads when they pop up. Especially when it’s for disruption affecting me, as the detail shared is far more helpful than National Rail and TOCs own websites. The thread someone linked above though seems to say you can’t post about disruption unless you require alternative travel advice unfortunately. I find it helpful to know what’s going on, even if I don’t require alternative travel advice!

 

[Mojo]

Would there be a case for Major Disruption to have its own dedicated section within the forum?

I cannot imagine the advantage of this - there is no way that the forum would ever or indeed could ever replace official industry disruption sources such as National Rail Enquiries and feeds from individual Tocs.

As per our Service disruption threads policy which was helpfully linked to above - the benefit of service disruption threads is likely to be extremely limited to three major areas; notably
1. Journey planning help for members caught in disruption,
2. Discussion surrounding why incidents happened or questions about incident response / management
3. Discussion concerning major incidents reported in the news (really a subset of my earlier point).

 

[800Travel]

I cannot imagine the advantage of this - there is no way that the forum would ever or indeed could ever replace official industry disruption sources such as National Rail Enquiries and feeds from individual Tocs.

As per our Service disruption threads policy which was helpfully linked to above - the benefit of service disruption threads is likely to be extremely limited to three major areas; notably
1. Journey planning help for members caught in disruption,
2. Discussion surrounding why incidents happened or questions about incident response / management
3. Discussion concerning major incidents reported in the news (really a subset of my earlier point).

It can't necessarily replace official sources, but it nicely complements them I think. Official sources just say kind of this has happened, we think disruption will be ongoing for X duration and lines will open after Y duration. The detail we get on here (this specific section of line is blocked, and on this line out of the 4 only. A rescue locomotive has now arrived. Network Rail is now on site to fix the signalling cables. They are about to run a train through to check it's now ok. They are about to give up possession etc.) is unparalleled in its depth and usefulness as it can help us have a better insight into the extent of the disruption, and if the stated durations are likely correct as they do sometimes change once the official sources realise the extent of the disruption. It's also good for collating things as people often link to TOC social media posts about the incident. Even just having greater insight into what is going on is helpful - it is stressful being caught up in major disruption, and the information some forum members are able to share may help members feel more comfortable as they then have more of a clue about what is going on - this is the case for me at least.