Disposal Of IC225s

[Haydn1971]

There's still going to be fast services on the 'classic' mainlines, which will need more EMUs if anything. Main difference is that what were the 'top-link' express trains will be serving more of the intermediate populations.

Agreed, however there's 65x 5 & 9 car AT300s on the ECML that won't be needed to the same level of intensity (services north of Doncaster will largely be HS2 CC), and there's 57 Class 390s that won't be needed to anywhere near the same intensity and then there's the WC and EMT 22x fleets, that's 47 of the 105 units.

 

[fowler9]

Could the 91's not be used with 442's on fasts between Chester and the Liverpool Loop and Hunts Cross and Southport?

 

[RichmondCommu]

Could the 91's not be used with 442's on fasts between Chester and the Liverpool Loop and Hunts Cross and Southport?

I think someone's taking the ****! Just like you'll be doing to my team in the League Cup next week!

 

[causton]

I think someone's taking the ****! Just like you'll be doing to my team in the League Cup next week!

Indeed, anyone knows that line is DC so is perfectly fine for 442 operation

 

[RichmondCommu]

Well you've sidestepped my question there, I asked above, just how much of this section actually runs at 125mph or indeed even 110-115mph - I don't honestly know, do you ?

From I understand it's pretty much 110 - 125 from Leicester to Sheet Stores Junction and from Derby to Sheffield 110 with the exception of tight curves etc. Between Leicester and Wellingborough there plenty of tight curves but I think south of Wellingborough to Cricklewood is 110 - 125 all the way. I'm pretty certain that Long Eaton to Spondon is also 110 but of course the distance between the two stations isn't the that long.

Well no I wouldn't think that at all, the slow lines are going to be full of Thameslink services stopping every few miles, so not that ideal for an express service.

Fair enough however current Thameslink services still run along the fasts and that certainly doesn't stop EMT services running at 125 mph between Cricklewood and north of Bedford so what would change?

 

[fowler9]

Indeed. The 91's could be fitted with pick up shoes to give the 442's a bit more oomph between stops.

 

[Haydn1971]

From I understand it's pretty much 110 - 125 from Leicester to Sheet Stores Junction and from Derby to Sheffield 110 with the exception of tight curves etc. Between Leicester and Wellingborough there plenty of tight curves but I think south of Wellingborough to Cricklewood is 110 - 125 all the way. I'm pretty certain that Long Eaton to Spondon is also 110 but of course the distance between the two stations isn't the that long.

So you don't really know how much is 125mph running ? I'm not having a go, but please, don't come banging on about must be 125mph, can't run slow, customers will revolt when you don't really know what actual impact there really is on the route.

Fair enough however current Thameslink services still run along the fasts and that certainly doesn't stop EMT services running at 125 mph between Cricklewood and north of Bedford so what would change?

Ok, that's spinning my comment around, Corby is supposedly getting units that can't go any faster than 110mph, now your saying that Thameslink use the fast line, so we now have 100mph units on the 125mph MML ? Odd, as when I'm on the MML there seems to be a lot of Thameslink units on the slow lines...

 

[RichmondCommu]

Well that wouldn't necessarily be the case, firstly headline services could still run as diesel under wires, we don't know actually how much slower a loco hauled Mk4 set would be, a 5-6 car rake pulled by a Class 91 or similar may well be little different, a 8-9 car Mk4 rake would steal the headlines with a step change in seats - there's always a positive spin to be had from what others perceive as bad news.

Yes but that would make things even worse wouldn't it? Essentially you'd be announcing that after months / years of disruption not to mention noise at night the TOC won't be making use of those wires for the majority of it's services. The local media would have a field day.

In terms of creating extra capacity I honestly can't see how the 225's would make much difference given that EMT already runs 7 - 8 - 9 car trains during the 'peak' and of course it's HST's. I'm afraid the headlines will be "All This Money / Disruption For Slower Trains".

Not only that but why would it not be possible to order 8 car EMU's?

As I've said above, we all recognise that Mk4s aren't an ideal situation, but if no one can make the economics of new EMUs work, then it's gonna be a mix of "Class 387 Type" EMUs, Mk4s and 222 running under wires until a sensible cascade can be made... No ROSCO will fund EMUs that will run for less than a decade with no sensible home afterwards because of the HS2 impacts.

Who's to say that no one can make the economics of EMU's work given that sooner or later those cascaded trains would have to be replaced. Unless you live close to Toton (i.e. the western suBurbs of Nottingham) then HS2 will be of no use nor ornament to those living in the East Midlands. The DfT / Network Rail have already stated that MML timetable will stay as it is and so there is no reason to suggest that you couldn't get 30 years life out of a 125 mph EMU.
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So you don't really know how much is 125mph running ? I'm not having a go, but please, don't come banging on about must be 125mph, can't run slow, customers will revolt when you don't really know what actual impact there really is on the route.

The figures were quoted in Railway Magazine a while a go and I think you'll find that my estimates are pretty close to the actual speed limits. Given that Network Rail have spent millions in recent years upgrading the line to 125 mph would it not be madness to not make full use of it? And as a regular user of the route it doesn't take rocket science to work out how fast you're going.

Given that I use the line on a regular basis, I'm originally from the East Midlands and I know many people who regularly use the route I think I'm in a good position to know how the media / local population will react.
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Ok, that's spinning my comment around, Corby is supposedly getting units that can't go any faster than 110mph, now your saying that Thameslink use the fast line, so we now have 100mph units on the 125mph MML ? Odd, as when I'm on the MML there seems to be a lot of Thameslink units on the slow lines...

I think you'll find that Thameslink make use of all four lines with the limited stop services running on the 'fasts' where they can. In fact I know this for certain. And so if there is a mixture of 125 mph and 100 mph running at the moment why should that change with 110 mph units?

 

[Grimsby town]

While I don't mind the idea of Mk4's being used on the MML with a new locomotive, I believe that the economics to buy new EMU's, to replace the 222's at least will stack up. On the ECML the 800's will be used for new services such as Leeds to Stansted Airport. Similarly on the WCML I'm sure we will see new services although perhaps to a lesser extent.

Even then there are plenty of places for express EMU's to spend the remainder of their lives. Cross Country routes could be one such route. The East to West line another and it's been proposed that the 390's are used on an upgraded South Transpennine route.

 

[RichmondCommu]

For 125mph running, top-and-tail is likely the easiest way to achieve it with whatever locomotives you choose. I don't think there's much concern about two 67s?

OK so are you suggesting that the driver of a class 67 at the front of the train would be able to control a class 67 at the rear of the train in the same way that the driver of a HST does?

It's from 1 Jan 2020. But unless they get a derogation, they must either be amended to be compliant (and the EMT ones are the furtherest from compliant currently; need the doors to be sorted, call-for-aid buttons by the wheelchair spaces, universally accessible toilets, saloon doors wide enough for a wheelchair, and a PIS) or replaced.

So what are the chances of EMT getting a derogation for it's HST fleet?
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The reliability issues crops up a lot, but is there any evidence of is being a problem now and could it be possible to build a new fleet of electric locomotives that could go onwards for use elsewhere on the network.

As far as I know the class 91's are currently undergoing work at Doncaster which is why a class 90 has been drafted in. In which case one can only conclude that even after all these years the class 91's are still suffering from reliability problems.

In terms of buying a new fleet of electric loco's where could they possibly go after the MML other than for export? Especially given that DRS now have a fleet of brand new electrics competing for work (which could not be used on the MML as they are only rated at 100 mph.

 

[Bald Rick]

In the peak there are more Thameslink units (or, more strictly, coaches) on the fast lines than the slows.

 

[The Ham]

Let's for argument sake agree that HS2 will impact the number of people using the MML, what sort of drop off could we expect in terms of passenger numbers?

I would suggest that, although significant it wouldn't be as much as say on services to Birmingham. As such it would be reasonable to estimate a figure of 50% of the flow upon opening.

No opening isn't today, in fact it wouldn't be until phase 2 is open. Let's say that the project opens in stages then the earliest is likely to be 2027, but could be as late as 2033. As such that is easily 10 years of growth. 10 years at 5% per year is 168 for every 100 passengers now.

If we half the number of passengers upon opening then you have 84 passengers for every 100 now. As such, it would be possible to reduce capacity back to today's levels by just moving on a relatively small number of units.

As such buying 125mph units to cope with today's flows is fine, it's any extra capacity that you need to allow for. However, if some of the 222's remain and electrification only removes the need for them just after opening of HS2 then that solves that problem.

 

[edwin_m]

However, if some of the 222's remain and electrification only removes the need for them just after opening of HS2 then that solves that problem.

HS2 won't affect the MML destinations until Phase 2, currently planned for 2032. So under that scenario the Meridians would be almost 30 years old and would have spent over half their time under the wires either on partial journeys before about 2023 or on full journeys afterwards. I think it is better to buy some straight electric stock for MML and to transfer the 222s to somewhere like CrossCountry where there will be similar growth but no prospect of eliminating diesel working until much later.

 

[The Ham]

HS2 won't affect the MML destinations until Phase 2, currently planned for 2032. So under that scenario the Meridians would be almost 30 years old and would have spent over half their time under the wires either on partial journeys before about 2023 or on full journeys afterwards. I think it is better to buy some straight electric stock for MML and to transfer the 222s to somewhere like CrossCountry where there will be similar growth but no prospect of eliminating diesel working until much later.

MML services could be run by 125mph EMUs with some of the 222s being used to run services beyond the wires with the possible exception of a few services. In that case there would still be plenty of 222's for XC to use. Just 17 if the 222s would allow all the 220s that XC have to run doubled up. If XC were to have the 7 coach units then that would be the equivalent of a pair of 220sb as well, so that would be enough (23 trains) for all the services currently run by 221s to be effectively lengthened from 5 to 7 coaches.

That's without allowing for not all the services needing to be doubled up all the time or any other 222s. XC doesn't need all the 222s, as probably at some point during CP6, at the outside CP7, there will be enough electrification to run at least Manchester to the south coast by EMU. Probably followed soon after the capability to run services between anywhere between Southern Scotland and the south coast by EMU.

 

[RichmondCommu]

MML services could be run by 125mph EMUs with some of the 222s being used to run services beyond the wires with the possible exception of a few services.

However what services would be running beyond the wires? Off the top of my head I can't think of any.

 

[Iskra]

However what services would be running beyond the wires? Off the top of my head I can't think of any.

The summer Scarborough trains are the only ones that I can think of. One assumes EMT will stop running to Leeds once the HST's disappear as they won't need to access the depot there anymore.

 

[sprinterguy]

Agreed, however there's 65x 5 & 9 car AT300s on the ECML that won't be needed to the same level of intensity (services north of Doncaster will largely be HS2 CC), and there's 57 Class 390s that won't be needed to anywhere near the same intensity and then there's the WC and EMT 22x fleets, that's 47 of the 105 units.

I appreciate that this is straying off topic and dangerously into speculative territory, but the HS2 Economic Case doesn't suggest that any HS2 services will operate north of Newcastle on the ECML: All Scottish HS2 services will take the West Coast route. Granted that HS2 Ltd want to squeeze three HS2 services an hour (two from London, one from Birmingham) through the constricted York - Newcastle section, but I would suggest that this is likely to have a greater impact on the Birmingham - Scotland Crosscountry corridor than the existing ECML London - Scotland one. There will also still be a need to serve existing intermediate markets between Leeds/York - London, which could benefit from increased frequencies of stopping trains.

HS2 will also have limited impact on intermediate centre to centre traffic on the MML between Leicester, Nottingham/Derby and Sheffield, though it will be of greater benefit for end-to-end travel between London and Sheffield, so again there is an opportunity to bolster frequencies at intermediate stations by introducing more calls in existing services.

A reduction in frequency of Intercity services is, of course, envisaged for the WCML, but depending on how the franchise map looks post-2030 it is possible that spare Pendolinos could be redeployed on regional services over the route: Bear in mind that by the earliest date that HS2 opens in its' entirety the Pendolinos will be around thirty years old and coming up to withdrawal themselves. I appreciate that the effect of HS2 on WCML services is the most likely to result in units being released, though.
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Delays in projects to electrify existing mainlines is causing rolling stock cascade headaches - what chance do we have on building a new high speed railway coming in on time and budget.

Actually, the UK has got pretty good form with delivering new build rail infrastructure projects on time and on budget, once construction actually starts - HS1, Norton Bridge flyover, Borders Railway (actually a reopening, of course, but after 40 years of disuse not far off new build). The problems arise and costs escalate when infrastructure projects have to work around the existing network, frequent train services and unforeseen complications encountered when working with infrastructure that has been altered over a 175 year period.

 

[Haydn1971]

Yes but that would make things even worse wouldn't it? Essentially you'd be announcing that after months / years of disruption not to mention noise at night the TOC won't be making use of those wires for the majority of it's services. The local media would have a field day.

Do we know this for certain, no... I'm challenging the assertion that it would be worse, we don't actually know this for sure. The wires would used the whole length by loco hauled Mk4s, capacity would be increased by the Mk4s, headline journey times would remain via the 222 fleet.

In terms of creating extra capacity I honestly can't see how the 225's would make much difference given that EMT already runs 7 - 8 - 9 car trains during the 'peak' and of course it's HST's. I'm afraid the headlines will be "All This Money / Disruption For Slower Trains".

The Mk4s would simply resolve he Mk3 DDA issues instantly. There are currently 12x HST sets and 27x 222 units, the DfT plan to add 110mph EMUs on the Corby line, which would probably free up 4-5 Class 222s to strengthen current operations on the Nottingham/Sheffield routes, lets say that provides replacements for 2 HSTs, leaving a need for 10 Mk4 rakes to maintain current capacity.

EMT do run doubled up 222s, but in my experience, these are limited to a few services only in the morning and evening peaks.

Not only that but why would it not be possible to order 8 car EMU's?

It's possible, but the economics look very weak - you wouldn't be able to use them until 2022 at the earliest, the HST sets would need extensive work to get them past 2020, then in 2026, there will be a huge recast of WCML services that will free up dozens of 9/11 car Class 390s and a handful of 221s, that still have a decade or more of useful live in them. Not only that, but the civil engineering works fit better too, you would struggle to fit 8 car EMUs in at the Sheffield terminus currently, so something has to be done there to allow them to be turned around, I've seen units sat in platforms 5, 6 & 8 for well over half an hour at times (not at the same time). That, coupled with NT plans to increase frequency and length of trains, plus TPE looking to run six car 185s through the day makes Sheffield look a lot busier.

Who's to say that no one can make the economics of EMU's work given that sooner or later those cascaded trains would have to be replaced. Unless you live close to Toton (i.e. the western suBurbs of Nottingham) then HS2 will be of no use nor ornament to those living in the East Midlands. The DfT / Network Rail have already stated that MML timetable will stay as it is and so there is no reason to suggest that you couldn't get 30 years life out of a 125 mph EMU.

Where has that been stated ? There will of course be a demand for Sheffield to Derby/Nottingham/Leicester services, but given we are talking a point roughly 16 years from now, following two major recasts of the mainline timetables, I'm having serious difficulties believing that will be the case. Growth on these intermediate routes will eventually bring passenger numbers up on the MML, which will work very well with the release of some 390s in 2026, more units once HS2 reaches Crewe and dozens of released AT300s past 2032 once HS2 reaches York and beyond.

The figures were quoted in Railway Magazine a while a go and I think you'll find that my estimates are pretty close to the actual speed limits. Given that Network Rail have spent millions in recent years upgrading the line to 125 mph would it not be madness to not make full use of it? And as a regular user of the route it doesn't take rocket science to work out how fast you're going.

Given that I use the line on a regular basis, I'm originally from the East Midlands and I know many people who regularly use the route I think I'm in a good position to know how the media / local population will react.

I think you'll find that Thameslink make use of all four lines with the limited stop services running on the 'fasts' where they can. In fact I know this for certain. And so if there is a mixture of 125 mph and 100 mph running at the moment why should that change with 110 mph units?

All that this statement does is reinforce the reason why 125mph running isn't always possible on the MML, I've asked if there is any information on actual speeds of services along the MML, clearly some services will run at slightly different speeds depending on delay at stations, but all we have is a headline - yes, there's 125mph line in place - yeah great, but what's the actual speed of services.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

My gut feeling is that once the Midland Mainline is electrified, provided the remaining sections of non-electrified routes isn't excessive that they'd be better off going for a new build of IEPs. If they don't have any routes where 2 portions goto different destinations then all 11 or even 12 car

 

[Haydn1971]

As far as I know the class 91's are currently undergoing work at Doncaster which is why a class 90 has been drafted in. In which case one can only conclude that even after all these years the class 91's are still suffering from reliability problems.

That's a huge leap in faith, what work is been done ? For all we know it could be routine work like you would service a car - doesn't indicate there's a problem, it's preventative to reduce the risk of future problems.

In terms of buying a new fleet of electric loco's where could they possibly go after the MML other than for export? Especially given that DRS now have a fleet of brand new electrics competing for work (which could not be used on the MML as they are only rated at 100 mph.

There are 12 HST sets currently on MML, arguably, if you cascade the 4-5 222s from the Corby route once EMUs are deployed there, too maintain current levels you would need 10 Mk4 rakes. Given the timescales, there would be a need for a Diesel Loco to pull the Mk4s post 2020, as there will be no wires to Sheffield until 2022 at the very earliest, if not later.

Something similar to a Class 67 seem most likely, at £2-3m a unit, still much cheaper than a fleet of £2m per car EMUs even if you need 24 to top and tail.
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HS2 won't affect the MML destinations until Phase 2, currently planned for 2032. So under that scenario the Meridians would be almost 30 years old and would have spent over half their time under the wires either on partial journeys before about 2023 or on full journeys afterwards. I think it is better to buy some straight electric stock for MML and to transfer the 222s to somewhere like CrossCountry where there will be similar growth but no prospect of eliminating diesel working until much later.

HS2 won't impact on destinations on MML until after 2032, but it will enable 390s to be released to the MML in 2026, allowing the 222 fleet to move to XC.

 

[D365]

What style of rolling stock do you predict will replace the 390s on the West Coast once HS2 is off the ground?

 

[SpacePhoenix]

HS2 won't impact on destinations on MML until after 2032, but it will enable 390s to be released to the MML in 2026, allowing the 222 fleet to move to XC.

By that time won't both 222s and 390s be near to withdrawal?

 

[Haydn1971]

By that time won't both 222s and 390s be near to withdrawal?

By 2026 ? Really ?
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What style of rolling stock do you predict will replace the 390s on the West Coast once HS2 is off the ground?

I'll turn that around, when HS2 services Birmingham with captive HS stock, plus Crewe, Manchester and beyond witH Classic Compatible stock, how much of a need will there be for 9/11 car express stock on the WCML. Sure, some express services will still be needed, the 390s will continue to service these demands, but at least half the fleet won't be required, replaced with units more suitable for stoppers and semi-fasts for places that don't reap the direct benefit from HS2

 

[SpacePhoenix]

I'm still cautious about any of these ideas, until construction is actually started on HS2, until that time it could still get postponed or cancelled

 

[D365]

I'm still cautious about any of these ideas, until construction is actually started on HS2, until that time it could still get postponed or cancelled

It may be postponed but it won't be cancelled. Not unless the economic fallout from Article 50 is significantly worse than predicted and the government deciding that another round of austerity is all we need :roll:

At least by that time we'll have Hinckley Point at the ready to power up our shiny new trainset

 

[43074]

My gut feeling is that once the Midland Mainline is electrified, provided the remaining sections of non-electrified routes isn't excessive that they'd be better off going for a new build of IEPs. If they don't have any routes where 2 portions goto different destinations then all 11 or even 12 car

Splitting and joining at Leicester for Derby & Nottingham has certainly been talked about before, it was in the East Midlands franchise ITT in 2006 but Stagecoach decided to use HSTs on the Nottingham services that would be involved, run 5 trains per hour from St Pancras and accelerate the fast Sheffield services instead. Partly because Market Harborough would only have had 1tph which the local residents didn't like.

As for 11 or 12 car IEPs :roll: A mix of 5 and 8 cars would be a better mix. Bi-modes do make sense on the MML for the various diversionary routes though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

At least by that time we'll have Hinckley Point at the ready to power up our shiny new trainset

Indeed. Pleased to see that get the go; without a substantial non-fossil-fuel electricity generation capability, the case for any electrification, let alone HS2, is damaged.

 

[The Ham]

The summer Scarborough trains are the only ones that I can think of. One assumes EMT will stop running to Leeds once the HST's disappear as they won't need to access the depot there anymore.

However EMT are hardly going to keep a few units for just Summer services, as such it could well be that they become an all year service.

If that is the case then there could be a need for some 222s to stay on for a time and/or EMT could look at new direct services to other destinations.

There may not be need to access the depot at Leeds, however there could still be demand for services for stations between London and Leeds and Leeds that would otherwise would lose out. Something that at privatisation may have only had a flow of (say) 40 people on a service now which has a flow of 80 people on a service and so could justify keeping it, especially as it could even hit 120 people by the time HS2 opens. On its own that wouldn't be enough to justify a service, but combined with the London bound flows that could be enough to justify running it as a through service.

The question is what would be better a totally new fleet of 80x's or a new fleet of 125mph capable EMU's and retaining some 222s. I would guess that the latter would be cheaper, especially if there was doubt over the need for so many (non tilt) 125mph EMU's post 2032.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A new fleet of 80x, without a doubt. Some could be bi-mode for services past the wires.

Unlike the Pendolinos the Voyager derivatives really are not ageing well, and I would expect a very early scrapping date for them compared with other stock.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Unlike the Pendolinos the Voyager derivatives really are not ageing well, and I would expect a very early scrapping date for them compared with other stock.

Corrosion?