December 2022 Timetable Changes

[FenMan]

the key issue is how much it costs to run.

And there's the answer. Reduce cost and hang the income side of the equation. My, the learning curve is so flat. How much are these people being paid to not understand the basics?

The fixed cost element of the railway is enormous. So the obvious thing to do is work on the worth of variable cost v variable income of running trains, not just on the line concerned, but also including longer distance revenues due to customers having frequent good connections at railway hubs. Chris Green understood this and went on to convince a cost-cutting Thatcher government he was right (and he was right). Do we seriously need to go through railway 1-0-1 again?

 

[Bald Rick]

So the obvious thing to do is work on the worth of variable cost v variable income of running trains, not just on the line concerned, but also including longer distance revenues due to customers having frequent good connections at railway hubs.

that’s exactly what is being done…

 

[infobleep]

There is a path for an excursion train from Guildford at 1417 towards Redhill which looks fairly permanent (although has lots of pathing) and would conflict with a train in the usual xx01 path from Reading.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:U66213/2022-07-16/detailed

I'm all for excursion trains but I don't remember the Tuesday evening trains needing the timetable to be changed to cater for them. Shame they can't timetable the excursion train so that these trains don't get changed like this, as it leaves an hours gap on trains from Guildford to Redhill and a 1 hour 33-minute gap for direct trains to Gatwick Airport.

One can change at Redhill but it involves a 15-minute wait and a change of platform. I will do it but it is slower, especially if going south of Gatwick Airport.

Of course when the fast trains use to depart around x10, I am guessing this problem didn't exist.

 

[FenMan]

that’s exactly what is being done…

Very poorly, on my local line. A key Reading evening departure that has been in the timetable since I was in my twenties (I'm 63) is missing. That means no more nights out in Reading and getting back at a sensible time, or risking a long-distance trip to Birmingham, the West Country or Wales when, if things go wrong, a two-hour wait at Reading beckons. I just use the car instead. Lose/lose.

 

[Express380]

Anyone know if there is going to be any changes to the GWR timetable please. Quite interested to see what changes (if any) are in store for the west.

 

[Birmingham]

Very poorly, on my local line. A key Reading evening departure that has been in the timetable since I was in my twenties (I'm 63) is missing. That means no more nights out in Reading and getting back at a sensible time, or risking a long-distance trip to Birmingham, the West Country or Wales when, if things go wrong, a two-hour wait at Reading beckons. I just use the car instead. Lose/lose.

Also from Reading, it’s notable how the useless expressing of Cotswold line services between London Paddington and Oxford creates a significant gap in Cotswold line departures from Reading in the PM peak.

I say useless as I understand this was to allow for the Bristol ‘SuperFasts’… which haven’t run since March 2020.

 

[TheBigD]

Is the December 2022 timetable change going to involve a recast of Lumo services on the ECML to reduce pathing time/following stopping LNER services/etc. or does that come later?

defintley not December. Nor May.

So the ECML rewrite that was deffered from May 2022 won't happen until December 2023 at the earliest?

 

[Kite159]

Also from Reading, it’s notable how the useless expressing of Cotswold line services between London Paddington and Oxford creates a significant gap in Cotswold line departures from Reading in the PM peak.

I say useless as I understand this was to allow for the Bristol ‘SuperFasts’… which haven’t run since March 2020.

Especially as all those passengers from Reading for stations on the Cotswold line crowd out the XC voyagers to change at Oxford.

GWR should bring back the Reading call on those trains, even if it's to pick up only.

 

[Barn]

No train should pass through Reading without stopping. It is the key hub in the region.

 

[30907]

Very poorly, on my local line.

think Bald Rick is working on work being done medium term?

 

[A S Leib]

No train should pass through Reading without stopping. It is the key hub in the region.

Could a situation similar to the Norwich 90 work (if enough demand to justify it returns), where, for example, there'd be an xx:00 from Paddington to Swansea running nonstop to Bristol Parkway then an xx:05 calling at Reading, Didcot and Swindon?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No train should pass through Reading without stopping. It is the key hub in the region.

I went through a decade around 1990 trying to get to Great Malvern in commuter hours from (variously) Slough and Reading.
I used to watch the 1700 Paddington-Hereford (first stop Didcot) charge through Slough/Reading, while I picked up the stopper/slammer to Reading, and then Oxford.
That was to eventually pick up the 1800 Paddington-Hereford (first stop Oxford) - a whole hour wasted on stoppers and changes.
Similar in the Up direction, although Reading was a bit easier.
The issue was that everything stopped at Reading off-peak, but just when you wanted it in the evening peak, it didn't.
This was in the days of class 50s on the Herefords.
I thought things had improved with HSTs on the Herefords, but it seems things have reverted to the 1990s again after the non-electrification to Oxford!

 

[Bald Rick]

Very poorly, on my local line. A key Reading evening departure that has been in the timetable since I was in my twenties (I'm 63) is missing. That means no more nights out in Reading and getting back at a sensible time, or risking a long-distance trip to Birmingham, the West Country or Wales when, if things go wrong, a two-hour wait at Reading beckons. I just use the car instead. Lose/lose.

it looks like you are taking your own personal circumstances as representative of the railway as a whole.

So the ECML rewrite that was deffered from May 2022 won't happen until December 2023 at the earliest?

who knows when it is going to happen? I don’t! But it won’t be May. Probably.

 

[FenMan]

it looks like you are taking your own personal circumstances as representative of the railway as a whole.

I see what's happening locally and to withdraw a train that has been in the timetable for 35+ years, creating a two hour service gap for passengers going to an evening concert, sports event or night out in Reading and beyond "because of the Treasury" is pretty dull. And I haven't mentioned the withdrawal of this service making long-distance connections scheduled to arrive in Reading after 9:00pm needlessly risky.

In my experience the service has been well-used, although I accept patronage east of Guildford could well be another matter. As people have said before on this thread, there is sufficient custom to make this service a trip to Guildford and back at least. It's (comparatively) rammed compared with the half-hourly evening virtual ghost trains on the nearby Ascot-Aldershot branch.

I get it people value their careers and that political winds are changeable. Go with the flow, keep your head down and keep the pension intact (I've been there and bought the T-shirt, while loudly stating the case that we were heading down the wrong track). I didn't get fired for pushing back, far from it. Where is today's Chris Green to take on the zero sum game bean counters when we need him?

 

[Bald Rick]

Where is today's Chris Green to take on the zero sum game bean counters when we need him?

I’ll ask him.

 

[CharlesR]

Anyone know if there is going to be any changes to the GWR timetable please. Quite interested to see what changes (if any) are in store for the west.

Here in Gloucester we have been promised 2tph Bristol for over 5 years now. Our MP is routinely telling us how "his work" will be implemented at the next timetable change, but then it doesn't end up happening.

With all the rolling stock issues I can't see it happening in December despite the promise

 

[Jrocks]

With all the rolling stock issues I can't see it happening in December despite the promise

I believe the MetroWest scheme has been scaled back slightly now. The need for additional trains is 'supposedly' not there. Add the fact that the 769s aren't working so there are no more Turbos released from reading, I wouldn't be supprised if it doesn't happen for a couple more years.

 

[JonathanH]

Here in Gloucester we have been promised 2tph Bristol for over 5 years now.

5 years takes you back before March 2020. That changed everything.

 

[D6130]

Where is today's Chris Green to take on the zero sum game bean counters when we need him?

....or Peter Rayner....or Gerry Fiennes for that matter!

 

[nw1]

Part of the problem is that currently SWR timetables aren't properly-thought-out ones, they're just 2019 timetables with arbitrary services deleted, leaving uneven service gaps and missing connections in many places.

If the assumption is that the reduced service level is going to be permanent for the foreseeable future, it would be better to revert to something more like the lower frequency but even-interval timetables from the early days of SWT.

Agree there. For example in the mid-late 90s there were 3tph from Waterloo to Guildford but they were even-interval 20-min frequency.

I think the problem is lack of staff and stock rather than demand, if I understand from previous conversations on this. There would be demand, I'm sure, for the full off-peak timetable from a few years ago (given off-peak traffic is not down), but SWR have a stock problem, and a staff problem like other TOCs.

But if that is the case, I would suggest rewrites to produce lower-frequency, but even-interval, timetables.

(As an aside, I don't think Portsmouth fasts have ever stopped at Clapham Junction, way back to 1986 or so when the semi-fasts gained the stop. Is there a specific reason for this?)

 

[Weekender]

5 years takes you back before March 2020. That changed everything.

I travel on this route regularly and nearly all services are”full and standing” between Cam and Dursley and Bristol. If the train has come from Worcester it can be difficult to get a seat at Gloucester.

 

[Mzzzs]

Does anyone know if there will be any changes to the Thameslink peak hour service between welyn garden city and Sevenoaks it’s always late in the morning along the ecml as well as the great northern stoppers into Moorgate are seem to be never on time during peak so I would assume something would be done to fix this?

 

[nw1]

I travel on this route regularly and nearly all services are”full and standing” between Cam and Dursley and Bristol. If the train has come from Worcester it can be difficult to get a seat at Gloucester.

I guess the issue is the lack of stock/staff for GWR, rather than the lack of demand - the demand is clearly there for a more frequent service.

 

[James90012]

I guess the issue is the lack of stock/staff for GWR, rather than the lack of demand - the demand is clearly there for a more frequent service.

The real issue is surely the reduction in income from the London commuter market. Whilst passenger numbers into places like Bristol have bounced back really well, the fact is those services will always require a subsidy to run and that would have previously been off set by revenue generated from London commuters.

It's harsh for Bristol, and I disagree with the fundamental way things are done at the moment but we are where we are. But unlike other posters, I strongly believe we shouldn't confine ourselves to that situation and should continue to make the case.

 

[RollingStock19]

defintley not December. Nor May.

There was some changes due for Lumo, I believe the first departure from London was due in Edinburgh at 0955 making the pre 10am arrival they set out for. I also believe some paths may have some tweaking such as the removal of running through Platform 4 at Darlington, and I believe the use of the York avoider in the southbound direction was to introduced. I hope they dont get pushed back to much.

 

[Nicks]

Seems SWR (announced yesterday) has deferred planned December 2022 changes - apart from targeted interventions whatever they are!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Seems SWR (announced yesterday) has deferred planned December 2022 changes - apart from targeted interventions whatever they are!

Yes it was announced in this press release about there 2022/23 business plan

https://www.southwesternrailway.com...h-western-railway-sets-out-key-business-plans

Over the past twelve weeks, SWR has seen its overall customer journeys stabilise at 70% of pre-Covid levels. While off peak travel has returned strongly to 100% of pre-Covid trips, commuters have been slower to return making just 53% of the peak journeys they did before the pandemic.

In light of these figures and the ongoing cost challenge facing the rail industry, SWR, Network Rail and the Department for Transport have decided to defer the timetable changes set out in the December 2022 consultation.

Instead, SWR will continue with its current service levels in December, with a limited number of targeted interventions to optimise services where demand has returned quickest. SWR and Network Rail will continue to monitor customer behaviour and act with agility to meet increased demand, subject to funding being agreed with the Department for Transport.

Commenting, SWR’s Managing Director, Claire Mann said:

“The Covid pandemic has fundamentally changed the way we work, play and travel, and the long-term future of the railway depends on it adapting to the new normal.

“Our new business plan does just this, striking the right balance between reducing the cost to taxpayers, who have subsidised the railway to the tune of £16 billion since the start of the pandemic, and delivering the improvements our customers want to see.

“Alongside our business plan, we have made the joint decision with the Department for Transport and Network Rail to defer our planned December 2022 timetable changes. While we know this will come as a disappointment to some of our customers, we cannot justify spending taxpayers’ money on a further timetable uplift while the number of commuter journeys sit at around 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels.”

Be good if other operators published their business plans as well

 

[nw1]

Seems SWR (announced yesterday) has deferred planned December 2022 changes - apart from targeted interventions whatever they are!

Sad. We're stuck with essentially a Covid emergency timetable yet again, though I don't actually think the Dec 2022 changes were that much of an improvement anyway.

With the stock, and presumably staff, problems that SWR are suffering, I can understand a reduced level of service is forced on them for the time being. However, it would be nice to see a bit more imagination with a rewrite to provide a reduced (compared to 2004-19) but more even interval service, such as sort out the irregularities on the Portsmouth Direct or give Eastleigh 2tph to Waterloo again. For example, they could look at what SWT offered in their early days in the 90s (essentially based on a 3tph rather than 4tph pattern on the main lines) and work towards something like that.

Even a restoration of something resembling the 80s pattern on the Direct (one fast, one semi-fast, and one stopping, looped at Guildford to allow the fast to overtake) would perhaps be an improvement on the mish-mash available now, in the sense that it would provide a more even-interval service to most stations on the line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jul 2022 ==

The real issue is surely the reduction in income from the London commuter market. Whilst passenger numbers into places like Bristol have bounced back really well, the fact is those services will always require a subsidy to run and that would have previously been off set by revenue generated from London commuters.

It's harsh for Bristol, and I disagree with the fundamental way things are done at the moment but we are where we are. But unlike other posters, I strongly believe we shouldn't confine ourselves to that situation and should continue to make the case.

If that's the case, there needs to be some kind of long-term solution to fix the problem.

Being controversial, perhaps encouraging people back to commuting might be one. Or government funding (not that we will get that at the moment, but perhaps by mid-decade).

I guess we need to accept the current era is pretty grim in every way, poor rail services are one (and not the worst) symptom of that, and just hope that from mid-decade onwards many aspects of life will improve.

 

[Birmingham]

The real issue is surely the reduction in income from the London commuter market. Whilst passenger numbers into places like Bristol have bounced back really well, the fact is those services will always require a subsidy to run and that would have previously been off set by revenue generated from London commuters.

That's interesting. How does that work for other operators all of whose routes must surely be loss-making as Bristol's are, like (probably) West Midlands Railway and Northern? Are West Midlands Railway routes subsidised by income from WCML commutes on London Northwestern Railway?

 

[JonathanH]

Are West Midlands Railway routes subsidised by income from WCML commutes on London Northwestern Railway?

I think it was suggested that the cross subsidy isn't necessarily between operations within one train operating company, it is also about overall DfT affordability. So, any surplus paid to the DfT is available to be paid back out as subsidy. If the DfT is paying out subsidy for services that used to pay a surplus, there is less money for paying subsidy for routes that needed a subsidy in the past.

Posters have indicated that the DfT and Treasury are desperate to get the subsidy back to the level they were paying in March 2020, if not less.