December 2020 Timetable Change

[HamworthyGoods]

Doubt it.

Indeed it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2tph Manchester and West Midlands becomes the base plan through to the summer timetable change. Post Lockdown 1 showed the demand didn’t return as strongly has hoped.

 

[Ianno87]

Indeed it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2tph Manchester and West Midlands becomes the base plan through to the summer timetable change. Post Lockdown 1 showed the demand didn’t return as strongly has hoped.

Business travel-wise, in person meetings are still going to be discouraged as long as social distancing is necessary.

In my employer, most 6/8 people-sized meeting rooms only have a temporary capacity of 2 to comply with distancing requirements, making most 'get together' meetings generally unviable.

 

[Mag_seven]

Indeed it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2tph Manchester and West Midlands becomes the base plan through to the summer timetable change. Post Lockdown 1 showed the demand didn’t return as strongly has hoped.

Until the government drops its "work from home where you can" guidance then nothing will change demand wise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doubt it.

The Brums and Mancs carried a lot of fresh air off-peak even before COVID. I'm not sure that 2tph evenly spaced of 11 car units with a few peak extras wouldn't suit better anyway.

 

[The Planner]

The Brums and Mancs carried a lot of fresh air off-peak even before COVID. I'm not sure that 2tph evenly spaced of 11 car units with a few peak extras wouldn't suit better anyway.

We have done this before, no one is going to touch the overall structure of the WCML anytime soon. It will sit as a 20/40 split not a 30/30.

 

[Watershed]

We have done this before, no one is going to touch the overall structure of the WCML anytime soon. It will sit as a 20/40 split not a 30/30.

I would imagine it will go back to 30/30 in the long (HS2 Phase 2a) term.

 

[The Planner]

I would imagine it will go back to 30/30 in the long (HS2 Phase 2a) term.

That is likely a given, but in the short term not a lot will happen. I suspect people are now scratching their heads over what they expected for Dec 22 and any re-write the 805/7 would instigate.

 

[Mag_seven]

It will sit as a 20/40 split not a 30/30.

I wonder could you expand on what you mean by that - % split of what?

 

[The Planner]

I wonder could you expand on what you mean by that - % split of what?

Minutes around the hour, not %

 

[matt]

He means the difference in departure times.

 

[Mag_seven]

Minutes around the hour, not %

Thanks - I get it now.

 

[Bald Rick]

The biggest saving in all this is crew (and particularly driver) diagrams

Saving crew diagrams doesn’t save money, unless they were worked by someone coming in on a rest day.

Avanti might revert to 3 per hour London-Manchester by the 14th of December anyway if things ease on the 3rd.

They won’t. Spring at best. (Informed Sources third law applies).

Establishing a secure connection ...

 

[Watershed]

Saving crew diagrams doesn’t save money, unless they were worked by someone coming in on a rest day.


They won’t. Spring at best. (Informed Sources third law applies).

Establishing a secure connection ...

There might be a minor reduction in required RDW but really I was referring to a reduced resource requirement, meaning that staff unavailability (particularly now with shielding formalised once again) doesn't immediately cause cancellations.

 

[Esker-pades]

That is likely a given, but in the short term not a lot will happen. I suspect people are now scratching their heads over what they expected for Dec 22 and any re-write the 805/7 would instigate.

There's a re-write currently being worked on to accommodate IETs and longer/heavier freight (amongst other things). That still (I think) works on the 3tph for both West Midlands and Manchester fasts.

 

[The Planner]

There's a re-write currently being worked on to accommodate IETs and longer/heavier freight (amongst other things). That still (I think) works on the 3tph for both West Midlands and Manchester fasts.

That is early days and can easily change. It has to work with the 3tph as that is why Avanti are pushing the non EPS linespeed increases.

 

[matt_world2004]

Does anyone know what's going to happen to TfL rail west. They promised four trains per hour to Heathrow back in May that didn't happen for obvious reasons . But will they plan on redoing the timetable to accommodate going to terminal 5 and will this result in more trains going to Heathrow.

 

[Ianno87]

Does anyone know what's going to happen to TfL rail west. They promised four trains per hour to Heathrow back in May that didn't happen for obvious reasons . But will they plan on redoing the timetable to accommodate going to terminal 5 and will this result in more trains going to Heathrow.

I'm guessing with the recent collapse in air travel demand due to you-know-what, it's not a massive priority for the time being.

 

[306024]

Does anyone know what's going to happen to TfL rail west. They promised four trains per hour to Heathrow back in May that didn't happen for obvious reasons . But will they plan on redoing the timetable to accommodate going to terminal 5 and will this result in more trains going to Heathrow.

Looking at Real Time Trains the permanent plan seems to be every 15 minutes to T2/3, with 2 trains per hour running to T5 after 20.00 Mon-Fri and all weekend, the remainder running to T4. There appears to be no platform available at T5 before 20.00 Monday to Friday due to the turnround times of the Heathrow Express service.

This is shown as the WTT service, so plenty of time for short term changes to be overlaid.

 

[Bald Rick]

Does anyone know what's going to happen to TfL rail west. They promised four trains per hour to Heathrow back in May that didn't happen for obvious reasons . But will they plan on redoing the timetable to accommodate going to terminal 5 and will this result in more trains going to Heathrow.

“Subject to Change”

 

[Fisherman80]

Thanks for the heads up.

Shockingly there's still no 10:19 departure from Leeds towards Lancaster. Very poor IMO.

I was thinking the same. A four hour gap is very poor between Leeds and Morecambe.
The 1019 Leeds to Morecambe was a service I regularly used but on a positive note all services apart from the early morning Skipton to Lancaster service start from Leeds,and also the 1918 Leeds to Lancaster and 2131 Lancaster to Skipton are reinstated.
It looks like the Settle to Carlisle services are back to normal,with all trains departing and terminating at Leeds once again.
Just having a quick look at other Northern routes,its disappointing to see the Bridlington to Hull trains still hourly apart from peak hours.

 

[yorksrob]

I was thinking the same. A four hour gap is very poor between Leeds and Morecambe.
The 1019 Leeds to Morecambe was a service I regularly used but on a positive note all services apart from the early morning Skipton to Lancaster service start from Leeds,and also the 1918 Leeds to Lancaster and 2131 Lancaster to Skipton are reinstated.
It looks like the Settle to Carlisle services are back to normal,with all trains departing and terminating at Leeds once again.
Just having a quick look at other Northern routes,its disappointing to see the Bridlington to Hull trains still hourly apart from peak hours.

Yes, it's good to see the S&C back to normal.

 

[Zooty]

I was thinking the same. A four hour gap is very poor between Leeds and Morecambe.

It's not great, but it's better than the four hour gap followed by a five hour gap that we have currently!

 

[josla1]

What’s the excuse for northern not running the 10 trains a day between Liverpool and Manchester airport via Warrington in line with TFGM service document? Or is the 10 trains included in the back working?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

What’s the excuse for northern not running the 10 trains a day between Liverpool and Manchester airport via Warrington in line with TFGM service document? Or is the 10 trains included in the back working?

That rather big global pandemic called Covid-19.

The railway is currently unable to plan for a full service to meet the usual requirements in part due to staff sickness/self isolation from the virus. By way of example below shows how impossible it is to plan for a full complement of staff as railway staff are not immune to it...

Covid-19 outbreak at Manchester Piccadilly train station as 53 staff sent home

It's understood a staff member took a test on Monday before arriving for his shift on Tuesday, only to receive the positive result later that day

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[AMD]

The "excuse" you will be looking for is that the December change uplift for Northern is only to 92% of base timetable - across the whole business - so there will still be some gaps in the overall service. As has already been stated upthread there are large issues around training (which didn't happen for nearly 8 months) and a proportion of staff self isolating at any given time; so there is no point promising 100% service when we know that it won't happen. As to which base services don't run, a lot of it is driven as to where (the depots) the issues are eg retirement and traincrew leaving to go to other operators will never be equal across the depots, which results in some routes apparently having more gaps than others.

 

[Ianno87]

What’s the excuse for northern not running the 10 trains a day between Liverpool and Manchester airport via Warrington in line with TFGM service document? Or is the 10 trains included in the back working?

That rather big global pandemic called Covid-19.

The railway is currently unable to plan for a full service to meet the usual requirements in part due to staff sickness/self isolation from the virus. By way of example below shows how impossible it is to plan for a full complement of staff as railway staff are not immune to it...

Covid-19 outbreak at Manchester Piccadilly train station as 53 staff sent home

It's understood a staff member took a test on Monday before arriving for his shift on Tuesday, only to receive the positive result later that day

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

And lack of current air demand suggests a service to Manchester Airport is hardly a priority.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If all trains which usually go to the Airport run, but many terminate at Piccadilly or Oxford Road for now, is that still sticking to the 92%, since the train ran at least on part of its booked route?

 

[Bald Rick]

If all trains which usually go to the Airport run, but many terminate at Piccadilly or Oxford Road for now, is that still sticking to the 92%, since the train ran at least on part of its booked route?

If you count it by train paths yes.

 

[CW2]

If you count it by train paths yes.

Ah yes, lies, damn lies, and statistics.
It's a bit like TPE running a Scarborough to Liverpol train as far as York and then claiming it as having "run" in their statistics.
TOCs should be quoting the percantage of timetabled miles run, not the percentage of paaths (part-)run.

 

[Bald Rick]

Ah yes, lies, damn lies, and statistics.
It's a bit like TPE running a Scarborough to Liverpol train as far as York and then claiming it as having "run" in their statistics.
TOCs should be quoting the percantage of timetabled miles run, not the percentage of paaths (part-)run.

But then that doesn’t cover where trains are short formed or long-formed, as many operators are doing. By that measure Cross Country are at around 60%. By vehicle miles they are at around 90%.

But if you go to vehicle miles, TPE and actually over 100%. c2c were at something like 140% over the summer.

No easy answer.