Current (autumn ‘24) passenger numbers

[Xavi]

It's noticeable in the figures that you quoted earlier that it's GWR's longer-distance routes that are performing worst.

Definitely not the case for Paddington - Devon / Cornwall as mentioned by Hopwood several time on LinkedIn.

My experience tells me there has been a significant increase in business users visiting London for 1/2 nights and travelling in the shoulder peak, midweek the car parks at the likes of Exeter St Davids are full. This combined with lower usage on the Swindon - London corridor reflects the move to hybrid working and business people being more willing to travel further when visiting London in exchange for a better work / life balance.

 

[The exile]

And that is on fast and lovely new trains on a fairly new track, within a company that had to throw away most of its last set of trains way quicker than would have happened on the UK only mainlines.

There the also the very serious point that this is a tax on economic activity in the north. We live in a very strange country compared to all our European neighbours where the capital is x8 bigger than the next city down.

Probably depends how you measure it. Greater London (1) is approx 4x Greater Manchester (2), while Greater Paris (1) is approx 5x Greater Lyon (2).

 

[Magdalia]

We live in a very strange country compared to all our European neighbours where the capital is x8 bigger than the next city down.

Probably depends how you measure it. Greater London (1) is approx 4x Greater Manchester (2), while Greater Paris (1) is approx 5x Greater Lyon (2).

The UK and France are different from most other European countries.

For example, the comparisons of Berlin/Hamburg, Rome/Milan and Madrid/Barcelona are all roughly x2.

 

[RT4038]

We live in a very strange country compared to all our European neighbours where the capital is x8 bigger than the next city down.

I think France is in a fairly similar situation?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think France is in a fairly similar situation?

The UK and France are the outliers - and France's railway reflects that even more than ours.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Definitely not the case for Paddington - Devon / Cornwall as mentioned by Hopwood several time on LinkedIn.

My experience tells me there has been a significant increase in business users visiting London for 1/2 nights and travelling in the shoulder peak, midweek the car parks at the likes of Exeter St Davids are full. This combined with lower usage on the Swindon - London corridor reflects the move to hybrid working and business people being more willing to travel further when visiting London in exchange for a better work / life balance.

I travelled down to Devon yesterday (via the Marches since you ask - the Mk 4 loco hauled services are very welcome upgrade). The car parks at Tiverton Parkway and Totnes (both sides of the line) were absolutely rammed - even the hideous multi-storey at Plymouth looked full. TW*T working is very prevalent now with folk spending long weekends in the West.

 

[Horizon22]

Unfortunately on GWR at least "modern" and "quality" don't go together. One of my last long distance GWR journeys was a most uncomfortable trip up the main line on a crowded IET, stuck in a seat with a base that had collapsed into the frame. Changing at Reading onto the 30+ years old turbo on the NDL was a big improvement in comfort.

IETs have the added benefit of also being “expensive”!

 

[Moonshot]

Anecdotal evidence from me both as train crew and passenger suggests numbers are still well down on pre COVID times......and as an example last week , a trip on Avanti out of Euston and I found myself in a carriage almost by myself.

 

[dk1]

Anecdotal evidence from me both as train crew and passenger suggests numbers are still well down on pre COVID times......and as an example last week , a trip on Avanti out of Euston and I found myself in a carriage almost by myself.

I used to often have that in peak hours under Virgin Trains banner.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Anecdotal evidence from me both as train crew and passenger suggests numbers are still well down on pre COVID times......and as an example last week , a trip on Avanti out of Euston and I found myself in a carriage almost by myself.

I think it does show how it depends on areas, with the change in travel patterns we are seeing some trains empty and others over capacity.

With capacity changes also with regards to new rolling stock and retired rolling stock it's really difficult to gauge now compared with 2019.

The only thing I do know is that passenger numbers are still growing substantially year on year alone with revenue so it would be very short sighted to decrease capacity any more than has been and areas do now need increased capacity. EMR and cross country across all their services for example

 

[Mindthegap38]

A friend who is prone to cynicism has suggested that the passenger statistics are based on the number of tickets purchased and that with the proliferation of split-ticketing, with multiple tickets for each journey, the figures are exaggerated. That can't be true, surely?

Which of course, points to the need for split ticket pricing to be normal pricing and freely available on all TOCs, apps, websites and ticket offices! God forbid!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Nov 2024 ==

I think the Bittern Line between Norwich and Sheringham is above pre-pandemic levels. Maybe the new trains were also a factor in increased passenger numbers?

Not a surprise, given the previous use of overcrowded 150/153s! A shining example, except for the signalling which goes down regularly!

 

[Krokodil]

Which of course, points to the need for split ticket pricing to be normal pricing and freely available on all TOCs, apps, websites and ticket offices! God forbid!

No, it points to the need for more reasonable through fares.

 

[Dr Day]

Anyone got any comparable data for other modes? Ie is it just a growing market for travel generally or is rail getting a bigger share?

 

[slowroad]

Latest data from DfT suggests little if any rail passenger growth over the last year. Excluding Elizabeth line, stuck at under 90% of pre -Covid.

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

 

[dk1]

Latest data from DfT suggests little if any rail passenger growth over the last year. Excluding Elizabeth line, stuck at under 90% of pre -Covid.

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

Would be good to see this broken down by operator/route to see whether there is much impact of the poorer performing operators and/or those still suffering from staff shortages/weekend disruption.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Would be good to see this broken down by operator/route to see whether there is much impact of the poorer performing operators and/or those still suffering from staff shortages/weekend disruption.

It also needs a bit of context, if operators are running 90% of services (also capacity) compared with Pre pandemic then give or take you're only going to get 90% of passengers.

 

[yorksrob]

Latest data from DfT suggests little if any rail passenger growth over the last year. Excluding Elizabeth line, stuck at under 90% of pre -Covid.

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

Which is already flawed because its discounting local journeys from Paddington and Liverpool Street which would have counted before the pandemic.

Funny that instead of regarding EL growth as a positive argument for rail, it chooses to skew the statistics to bolster a pro cutting narrative.

These statistics are therefore not worth the paper they're written on.

 

[ScotGG]

Exactly. DfT and Treasury in cuts mode and tailor to suit their aspirations.

It's still clear that when services are restored growth is seen. Axing turn up and go on National Rail in, for example, the London area hampers recovery compared to TfL modes.

 

[Snow1964]

ORR is publishing new annual data next Thursday (21st Nov) 09:30

Annual station usage
Regional Rail usage

Publication dates for statistics | ORR Data Portal

Our publication timetable provides details when we will publish official statistics, the statistical releases and other statistics that we publish.

dataportal.orr.gov.uk

 

[slowroad]

Which is already flawed because its discounting local journeys from Paddington and Liverpool Street which would have counted before the pandemic.

Funny that instead of regarding EL growth as a positive argument for rail, it chooses to skew the statistics to bolster a pro cutting narrative.

These statistics are therefore not worth the paper they're written on.

Nope. The comparison excludes the local journeys that were subsequently incorporated into the EL. So it is a fair comparison for the rest of the network. All explained in the methodology note.

 

[43066]

Nope. The comparison excludes the local journeys that were subsequently incorporated into the EL. So it is a fair comparison for the rest of the network. All explained in the methodology note.

But the point you appear to have missed is that those journeys were made by rail on the legacy routes that are now part of the EL (the only “new” bit is the core section), so why are those now being excluded, other than to distort the figures?

 

[yorksrob]

Nope. The comparison excludes the local journeys that were subsequently incorporated into the EL. So it is a fair comparison for the rest of the network. All explained in the methodology note.

The only way that a comparison excluding EL journeys would be remotely fair and consistent would be if every EL journey west of Paddington and East of Liverpool street (maybe excluding those wholly on the Abbey Road branch) were included in the NR figures.

Anything else would be gerrymandering.

 

[slowroad]

But the point you appear to have missed is that those journeys were made by rail on the legacy routes that are now part of the EL (the only “new” bit is the core section), so why are those now being excluded, other than to distort the figures?

Not missed. The point is to give a like for like comparison and exclude journeys that are transfers from London Underground and new journeys generated by the new travel opportunities.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2024 ==

The only way that a comparison excluding EL journeys would be remotely fair and consistent would be if every EL journey west of Paddington and East of Liverpool street (maybe excluding those wholly on the Abbey Road branch) were included in the NR figures.

Anything else would be gerrymandering.

Have you looked at how it has been done?

 

[Bald Rick]

It also needs a bit of context, if operators are running 90% of services (also capacity) compared with Pre pandemic then give or take you're only going to get 90% of passengers.

Not so.

But the point you appear to have missed is that those journeys were made by rail on the legacy routes that are now part of the EL (the only “new” bit is the core section), so why are those now being excluded, other than to distort the figures?

Because they weren’t being made on the National Rail network, and therefore the stats would not be directly comparable. It only excludes those current journeys that were not on the previous NR network, principally wholly within the core. For example :

excluded:
Paddington to Liv St
Bond St to Stratford
Farringdon - Custom House

Included:
Liv St to Ilford
Bond St to Southall

There is still fuzziness around some if it, not least the impact of growth (would that have happened without the Liz Line?) but it is reasonably accurate.

Government and ORR have no incentive to suppress the numbers, despite what some cynics might think. If they did, they would be suppressing them everywhere.

 

[yorksrob]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2024 ==


Have you looked at how it has been done?

Not so.



Because they weren’t being made on the National Rail network, and therefore the stats would not be directly comparable. It only excludes those current journeys that were not on the previous NR network, principally wholly within the core. For example :

excluded:
Paddington to Liv St
Bond St to Stratford
Farringdon - Custom House

Included:
Liv St to Ilford
Bond St to Southall

There is still fuzziness around some if it, not least the impact of growth (would that have happened without the Liz Line?) but it is reasonably accurate.

Government and ORR have no incentive to suppress the numbers, despite what some cynics might think. If they did, they would be suppressing them everywhere.

My error in that case.

It is somewhat misleading to state "excludes Elizabeth Line services" if it's not excluding a lot of them.

 

[43066]

Not so.



Because they weren’t being made on the National Rail network, and therefore the stats would not be directly comparable. It only excludes those current journeys that were not on the previous NR network, principally wholly within the core. For example :

excluded:
Paddington to Liv St
Bond St to Stratford
Farringdon - Custom House

Included:
Liv St to Ilford
Bond St to Southall

There is still fuzziness around some if it, not least the impact of growth (would that have happened without the Liz Line?) but it is reasonably accurate.

Government and ORR have no incentive to suppress the numbers, despite what some cynics might think. If they did, they would be suppressing them everywhere.

Okay thanks. Is that spelt out anywhere, it isn’t immediately obvious from a cursory reading of the footnotes linked to above (apologies in advance if I’ve missed something obvious) - and has the approach changed?

 

[Xavi]

Not so.



Because they weren’t being made on the National Rail network, and therefore the stats would not be directly comparable. It only excludes those current journeys that were not on the previous NR network, principally wholly within the core. For example :

excluded:
Paddington to Liv St
Bond St to Stratford
Farringdon - Custom House

Included:
Liv St to Ilford
Bond St to Southall

There is still fuzziness around some if it, not least the impact of growth (would that have happened without the Liz Line?) but it is reasonably accurate.

Government and ORR have no incentive to suppress the numbers, despite what some cynics might think. If they did, they would be suppressing them everywhere.

Very interesting how many of the Elizabeth Line journeys are within the new build central sections.

 

[Bald Rick]

Okay thanks. Is that spelt out anywhere, it isn’t immediately obvious from a cursory reading of the footnotes linked to above (apologies in advance if I’ve missed something obvious) - and has the approach changed?

Not sure where it is spelt out.

 

[Starmill]

a cheaper time than £250!

The point being that reasonable fares are avaialbel at relatively short notice.

Try getting from metropolitan London to metropolitan Paris and back next week by air or road and you’ll find that Eurostar at cheap times is by far the best value option, unless four of you share a car and happy to take 6 hours each way.

I do worry that some people get really stuck in the bubble when they're eligible for cheap tickets and have a decent salary - this really isn't a very in touch idea I'm afraid. I can depart London on Monday at 0700 and depart Paris on Wednesday at 1400, along with a wide choice of other times of day, next week, the whole round trip for £39.98 including all fees and taxes. That's without voucher codes or cashback. Journey time is only 8 hours, which is quite reasonable given you're stopped and on a ferry or Le Shuttle for 3 of those hours. The carrier is, of course, Flixbus - note these are the last few remaining seats so the price never goes above around £35 each way.

£103 is not a reasonable fare for a round trip to Paris at 10 days notice. £39.98 is.

Now that it's back, Eurostar Snap might produce some more sensible late-notice rates.

 

[Krokodil]

£103 is not a reasonable fare for a round trip to Paris at 10 days notice.

It's more reasonable for Paris than it is for Newcastle.