Current (autumn ‘24) passenger numbers

[Bikeman78]

Another article (from the Guardian) suggesting that numbers in London are around 90% of pre pandemic, although it isn’t quite clear where they’re sourcing those figures.

My commute sees lower numbers than 2019, anecdotally, albeit some services are busy. The longer haul trains I work are well above pre Covid loadings and have been for a long time now.

What are peoples’ experiences?

In no great rush to get back to the office? UK home workers may not have a choice

Supermarket chain Asda has joined the growing number of firms demanding staff return to the workplace. Does this signal the end for remote working or is it a new battle line?

www.theguardian.com

Recently I travelled on the 17:35 Victoria to Bognor Regis in the second of 12 carriages. Full and standing from Clapham, and that was a Friday. At the other end of the scale, I went on a single 455 on a peak Hounslow loop. Hardly anyone standing. In fact, it was more busy on the bit heading back in to Waterloo.

 

[InTheEastMids]

My recent experience

EMR IC are really busy all the time, the 810s can't arrive too soon, for this and other reasons.

All 4 XC services very busy (2 NE-SW voyager and 2 Birmingham-Stansted).

Had a few trips on GWR 80x at mostly off-peak times on both Paddington-Reading and return, and around Bristol-WSM area and they were generally OK but I wasn't using peak or shoulder services.

 

[Economist]

I drive intercity units from the south coast to the Midlands and back and four/five car single sets are regularly full and standing for at least half or the journey. At weekends we sometimes end up leaving people behind. Certainly this year passenger numbers seem to be very high, mainly leisure, student and business passengers.

 

[John R]

A friend who is prone to cynicism has suggested that the passenger statistics are based on the number of tickets purchased and that with the proliferation of split-ticketing, with multiple tickets for each journey, the figures are exaggerated. That can't be true, surely?

The quarterly figures produced give both passenger journeys and passenger kilometres travelled. The latest publication show both are up 7% on the previous year.

Obviously the latter figure will not be affected by split ticketing, so your cynical friend can use that instead. The fact that they have both increased by the same amount suggests that any distortion might not be as great as we sometimes think it could be.

 

[Pugwash]

You can get a return to Paris next week for £103…

Cheap fares are available quite a way out, but if you want to travel now and get somewhere at a specific time, then the cost of a train can be eye watering compared to getting in the car, particularly if there multiple passengers.

 

[Toller Station]

At weekends we sometimes end up leaving people behind. Certainly this year passenger numbers seem to be very high, mainly leisure, student and business passengers.

Interesting. I wonder whether the post pandemic trend of the work week being shorter, or at least shorter in offices (aka working from home) is driving some of this. it’s a pretty global trend for cities to seem far less busy on Friday’s which makes for a longer ‘weekend’. There was also the trend of many retiring early around the time of the pandemic. An aging population perhaps driving less? More people with more leisure time? That would suggest an uplift in associated data, like hotel stays, and whilst hotel pricing these days might suggest they’re busier I’ve not seen data supporting increases in occupancy. All of which leads to thoughts about whether there are changes in the use of the railways, for example more leisure travel and what that would suggest for the network in the future. You’d expect in those circumstances for those South Coast stations being a lot busier.
The comments on whether split ticketing was messing with the numbers were interesting and I wondered if the large numbers of train specific fares that are sold might also be distorting real usage. Presumably if your plans change and you can’t make the 1113 out of Thornaby your ticket sale still has you as a passenger? But as such fares are hardly new in the UK that presumably has little impact on short and medium trends?

 

[Horizon22]

Cheap fares are available quite a way out, but if you want to travel now and get somewhere at a specific time, then the cost of a train can be eye watering compared to getting in the car, particularly if there multiple passengers.

The same is true for almost any form of transport though, including air fares which are arguably even worse (i.e sometimes impossible to book) at very short notice.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Nov 2024 ==

Interesting. I wonder whether the post pandemic trend of the work week being shorter, or at least shorter in offices (aka working from home) is driving some of this. it’s a pretty global trend for cities to seem far less busy on Friday’s which makes for a longer ‘weekend’. There was also the trend of many retiring early around the time of the pandemic. An aging population perhaps driving less? More people with more leisure time? That would suggest an uplift in associated data, like hotel stays, and whilst hotel pricing these days might suggest they’re busier I’ve not seen data supporting increases in occupancy. All of which leads to thoughts about whether there are changes in the use of the railways, for example more leisure travel and what that would suggest for the network in the future. You’d expect in those circumstances for those South Coast stations being a lot busier.
The comments on whether split ticketing was messing with the numbers were interesting and I wondered if the large numbers of train specific fares that are sold might also be distorting real usage. Presumably if your plans change and you can’t make the 1113 out of Thornaby your ticket sale still has you as a passenger? But as such fares are hardly new in the UK that presumably has little impact on short and medium trends?

I would offer a theory is that now more people can WFH (work from home) more often that taking the train is not so much of the "chore" when it used to be Monday-Friday, 9-5 in the office every week. People don't have to take the train, so are more inclined to use it for leisure reasons. The other one is also that people get slightly more 'cabin fever' WFH and are more inclined to get away for the weekend as opposed to just resting at home. However - as has been stated - increasingly businesses are cutting down on days available WFH so the impact will reduce.

This is only part of it and there's a lot of different factors but I feel it has a part to play.

 

[dk1]

GEML seems to be winning on all fronts. Leisure travel is absolutely booming and commuters/business travel seems to be returning to a very healthy level. The car park at Manningtree which was enlarged for the second time just before the pandemic was almost full again today. Same goes for many others throughout the route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would offer a theory is that now more people can WFH (work from home) more often that taking the train is not so much of the "chore" when it used to be Monday-Friday, 9-5 in the office every week. People don't have to take the train, so are more inclined to use it for leisure reasons. The other one is also that people get slightly more 'cabin fever' WFH and are more inclined to get away for the weekend as opposed to just resting at home.

Certainly when I rail commuted daily (a horrible experience) I always used the car at the weekends for the change (despite having a season ticket I could have used). Similarly when I've done a long daily car commute I've gone for the train at weekends. A change is as they say as good as a rest.

 

[Snow1964]

Was sent following, apparently copied from GWR presentation about 2 months ago. Sorry don't have any links

North Somerset - London/Thames Valley -13.2% on pre covid
Swindon - Westbury (Transwilts) -10.4% of pre covid
Bristol -Westbury locals -2.3% of pre covid
Severn Beach line +1.3% of pre covid
Cardiff - South Coast (longer distance) +1.8% pre covid
Reading - Basingstoke +6.4% of pre covid
North Somerset locals +7% of pre covid
Bristol - South Wales +12% of pre covid
Bristol - Gloucester +13.2% of pre covid
Weymouth line +23.1% of pre covid

So majority of GWR services in Bristol area are higher than before covid (but not services towards London) on these unverified numbers

 

[Cricketer8for9]

Recently I travelled on the 17:35 Victoria to Bognor Regis in the second of 12 carriages. Full and standing from Clapham, and that was a Friday. At the other end of the scale, I went on a single 455 on a peak Hounslow loop. Hardly anyone standing. In fact, it was more busy on the bit heading back in to Waterloo.

Full to East Croydon or beyond?

 

[Adrian1980uk]

GEML seems to be winning on all fronts. Leisure travel is absolutely booming and commuters/business travel seems to be returning to a very healthy level. The car park at Manningtree which was enlarged for the second time just before the pandemic was almost full again today. Same goes for many others throughout the route.

Always difficult to gauge given the longer trains and more seats on the commuter stock but I suspect we are likely close to Pre COVID now if not above

 

[blueberry11]

I think the Bittern Line between Norwich and Sheringham is above pre-pandemic levels. Maybe the new trains were also a factor in increased passenger numbers?

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I think the Bittern Line between Norwich and Sheringham is above pre-pandemic levels. Maybe the new trains were also a factor in increased passenger numbers?

Definitely a factor, just by the fact the increased capacity enables more people to travel.

 

[Bald Rick]

Was sent following, apparently copied from GWR presentation about 2 months ago. Sorry don't have any links

North Somerset - London/Thames Valley -13.2% on pre covid
Swindon - Westbury (Transwilts) -10.4% of pre covid
Bristol -Westbury locals -2.3% of pre covid
Severn Beach line +1.3% of pre covid
Cardiff - South Coast (longer distance) +1.8% pre covid
Reading - Basingstoke +6.4% of pre covid
North Somerset locals +7% of pre covid
Bristol - South Wales +12% of pre covid
Bristol - Gloucester +13.2% of pre covid
Weymouth line +23.1% of pre covid

So majority of GWR services in Bristol area are higher than before covid (but not services towards London) on these unverified numbers

And in revenue terms, that -13.2% on the top line will outweigh all the positives below it multiple times.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Nov 2024 ==

GEML seems to be winning on all fronts. Leisure travel is absolutely booming and commuters/business travel seems to be returning to a very healthy level. The car park at Manningtree which was enlarged for the second time just before the pandemic was almost full again today. Same goes for many others throughout the route.

GA is largely unique in that it renewed its fleet during Covid. That will be a major factor in the growth - 1) shiny new trains that are more comfortable and with more space on them, 2) shiny new trains that are much more capable than their predecessors meaning that minor delays are easily recovered, driving improved punctuality, in turn driving increased custom.

 

[Fisherman80]

I regularly travel from Bingley to either Carnforth or Carlisle and in my opinion there does seem to be more people travelling compared to pre Covid.
The trains over the Settle to Carlisle line have been absolutely packed because Northern don't seem to be running as many 4 car sets and instead 2 carriage trains have become the norm lately. If I'm getting on a 2 car set from Bingley to Carlisle I can pretty much guarantee I will be sat on a tip up seat.
The Leeds to Morecambe trains seem to be always carrying a healthy number of passengers with most passengers getting off at either Carnforth or Lancaster.

 

[dk1]

And in revenue terms, that -13.2% on the top line will outweigh all the positives below it multiple times.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Nov 2024 ==



GA is largely unique in that it renewed its fleet during Covid. That will be a major factor in the growth - 1) shiny new trains that are more comfortable and with more space on them, 2) shiny new trains that are much more capable than their predecessors meaning that minor delays are easily recovered, driving improved punctuality, in turn driving increased custom.

And we also have superb and constant advertising promotions that fit the bill and catch the regional attention.

 

[Bald Rick]

And we also have superb and constant advertising promotions that fit the bill and catch the regional attention.

GA (and predecessors) have always had that.

 

[dk1]

GA (and predecessors) have always had that.

Very true. Close links with regional media (BBC Look East, ITV Anglia, and newspapers) have always helped.

 

[Bald Rick]

Very true. Close links with regional media (BBC Look East, ITV Anglia, and newspapers) have always helped.

And the same chap has been doing that for 30 years!

 

[dk1]

And the same chap has been doing that for 30 years!

He sure has

 

[Adrian1980uk]

He sure has

That's really the point though, greater Anglia have some very experienced people but also the stability of people remaining at the company for many years

 

[dk1]

That's really the point though, greater Anglia have some very experienced people but also the stability of people remaining at the company for many years

It was just a shame that things turned a little sour 2004-2012 in the NX days but great it got pulled back. Those certain few where a constraint throughout a maintained the good media links even at the most difficult times and commuter rebelions.

 

[Bikeman78]

Full to East Croydon or beyond?

Bit of both. Lots of people got on and off there. I'd say slightly better beyond Croydon but there were still people standing and only two or three empty seats that I could see.

 

[Magdalia]

I think the Bittern Line between Norwich and Sheringham is above pre-pandemic levels. Maybe the new trains were also a factor in increased passenger numbers?

Very true. Close links with regional media (BBC Look East, ITV Anglia, and newspapers) have always helped.

And the same chap has been doing that for 30 years!

Still in action less than a month ago.

Rail boss says growth proves not axing train lines was right move

Passenger growth is proving that the 1980s proposal to shut all but two lines in the East was wrong.

www.bbc.co.uk

A senior figure in East Anglia's rail network has spoken of his relief that a past proposal to close all but two rail lines in the region did not come to fruition.

The 1982 Serpell Report, which was commissioned by Margaret Thatcher's government, suggested that all lines be closed in the area, except the Great Eastern Mainline from Norwich to London and East Coast Mainline via Peterborough.

The recommendation was never adopted as the government tried to control British Rail's falling revenues and spiralling costs.

Jonathan Denby, the corporate affairs director for the train operator Greater Anglia, said: "I do remember it being really draconian and the most extreme of options with very little left."

Can anyone find a picture from 30 years ago?

 

[Class 170101]

GA is largely unique in that it renewed its fleet during Covid. That will be a major factor in the growth - 1) shiny new trains that are more comfortable and with more space on them,

Not entirely sure about the comfort factor of the Class 720s, room for improvement I'd say.

 

[Snow1964]

And in revenue terms, that -13.2% on the top line will outweigh all the positives below it multiple times.

Although it is complicated by the London trains IETs having roughly 20% of seats as First class, whereas it has been chosen not to provide it on the services that are busier than pre covid.

So are they choosing to forgo revenue by not offering the premium service and fares on the services which are growing in numbers. Possibly because they don't have enough of right type of trains for the growth.

If a line can get 120% of pre covid using 32-34 year old trains, what could it do with a modern quality offering ?

 

[DelW]

If a line can get 120% of pre covid using 32-34 year old trains, what could it do with a modern quality offering ?

Unfortunately on GWR at least "modern" and "quality" don't go together. One of my last long distance GWR journeys was a most uncomfortable trip up the main line on a crowded IET, stuck in a seat with a base that had collapsed into the frame. Changing at Reading onto the 30+ years old turbo on the NDL was a big improvement in comfort.

My subsequent regular trips to & from south Wales have all been in my car, which has a comfortable seat for the whole journey. GWR long-distance has joined XC on my personal "to be avoided" list since. I was originally a defender of the IETs, but their occasionally atrocious riding, and the disgraceful state of some / many of the seats, has completely put me off them.

Back on topic, I wonder if that affects passenger numbers (downwards) or do people simply put up with the lousy seats because they have no option? It's noticeable in the figures that you quoted earlier that it's GWR's longer-distance routes that are performing worst.

 

[The exile]

Was sent following, apparently copied from GWR presentation about 2 months ago. Sorry don't have any links

North Somerset - London/Thames Valley -13.2% on pre covid
Swindon - Westbury (Transwilts) -10.4% of pre covid
Bristol -Westbury locals -2.3% of pre covid
Severn Beach line +1.3% of pre covid
Cardiff - South Coast (longer distance) +1.8% pre covid
Reading - Basingstoke +6.4% of pre covid
North Somerset locals +7% of pre covid
Bristol - South Wales +12% of pre covid
Bristol - Gloucester +13.2% of pre covid
Weymouth line +23.1% of pre covid

So majority of GWR services in Bristol area are higher than before covid (but not services towards London) on these unverified numbers

Presumably “Weymouth line” means to and from stations between Frome and Weymouth, since “north” of there they are half of the “Westbury locals”

 

[modernrail]

Take Llanfairfechan as an example. It has grown by 77% compared with pre-covid. While it does seem a little busier, the splitting of tickets must have played a big part. The passenger km figures won't be affected, but the station usage and origin-destination figures (the former due out on the 21st) will be rendered meaningless.


Which is cheaper than you'll manage Newcastle on the same dates. Roughly a similar distance.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2024 ==


Outbound any departure from 1731 on Tuesday so right in the afternoon peak. For the return you do have to get the last one on Wednesday night (and it is now £5 than when Bald Rick looked) but the earlier trains are still much cheaper than comparable departures on LNER. If you want to go to Newcastle instead of Paris I'd recommend seeing a mortgage broker before you open LNER's app. Avanti to Carlisle is no cheaper than Eurostar either.

And that is on fast and lovely new trains on a fairly new track, within a company that had to throw away most of its last set of trains way quicker than would have happened on the UK only mainlines.

There the also the very serious point that this is a tax on economic activity in the north. We live in a very strange country compared to all our European neighbours where the capital is x8 bigger than the next city down. That is always going to mean lots of north south/north west travel is necessary for economic growth. It is absolutely pathetic that we have allowed a situation to arise where the travel costs between two areas we are trying to rebalance act as an instant block. Made even worse by the fact you can’t get on the train because most of the tickets have been sold well in advance. Or more infuriating as seems to be happening quite a bit at the moment - there are only higher priced fares available and the train is largely empty. This has happened to me on a few London to the north morning peak services recently with the guard saying they only had 40 people booked on the whole of one LNER service to York.