CP7 funding objectives published

[mcmad]

I was considering what we might have expected from a government seeking to cut spending and, since this SoFA does not include enhancements, it’s a hell of a result. There’s ample funding to maintain and renew the existing network.

There really isn't. Its a significant cut in funding and the impact of the 'maintenance holiday' that will result will be felt for a long long time, hopefully not through a significant incident.

 

[Xavi]

There really isn't. Its a significant cut in funding and the impact of the 'maintenance holiday' that will result will be felt for a long long time, hopefully not through a significant incident.

Wrong! All the doom stuff is misplaced. I will say it again, the SoFA does not include enhancements, which means it’s all for operations, maintenance and renewals.

 

[mcmad]

Wrong! All the doom stuff is misplaced. I will say it again, the SoFA does not include enhancements, which means it’s all for operations, maintenance and renewals.

I know, and its a significant cut in the funding for CP6 which also did not include enhancements, which means it’s all for operations, maintenance and renewals.

 

[Class 170101]

Wrong! All the doom stuff is misplaced. I will say it again, the SoFA does not include enhancements, which means it’s all for operations, maintenance and renewals.

Probably means there won't be any new enhancements funded in CP7.

 

[Xavi]

Probably means there won't be any new enhancements funded in CP7.

Agreed, I don’t expect anything significant other than the already announced ECML ETCS, MML electrification, Trans-Pennine upgrade and Old Oak Common GWR station.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Dec 2022 ==

I know, and its a significant cut in the funding for CP6 which also did not include enhancements, which means it’s all for operations, maintenance and renewals.

There is no cut! For the first 3 years of CP6 actual expenditure comparable with the £44bn SoFA was £20.4bn. How is that a cut even allowing for inflation?!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There really isn't. Its a significant cut in funding and the impact of the 'maintenance holiday' that will result will be felt for a long long time, hopefully not through a significant incident.

Where is your evidence of a mtce holiday?

 

[Clarence Yard]

Xavi, don’t compare apples with pears. NR expenditure isn’t straight line through a CP and COVID has disrupted the average yearly actual expenditure. Recorded CP6 actuals are probably the worst CP to use a base comparator..

Adjust the CP6 settlement figure to the base CP7 year price levels and then compare the two settlements.

It’s a cut.

 

[TeeMarkM]

DfT has today (1st December) launched initial funds and objectives for the 5 yearly Control period

Settlement for the next 5-year funding period for railway infrastructure in England and Wales

Providing details of objectives and funding available for railway infrastructure between April 2024 and March 2029.

www.gov.uk

Railways high level output specification 2022

What the Secretary of State for Transport wants the railway to achieve during control period 7 (2024 to 2029).

www.gov.uk

Railways statement of funds available 2022

Sets out the public funds government is making available for the railway during control period 7, 2024 to 2029.

www.gov.uk

Aaah it's here again, the five-yearly merry-go-round of high-level wibble, waffle and womble of big-sounding numbers. The fun starts now devilling the detail. Until then it all makes little sense; abstract and well...wibble etc.

 

[Xavi]

Xavi, don’t compare apples with pears. NR expenditure isn’t straight line through a CP and COVID has disrupted the average yearly actual expenditure. Recorded CP6 actuals are probably the worst CP to use a base comparator..

Adjust the CP6 settlement figure to the base CP7 year price levels and then compare the two settlements.

It’s a cut.

Yes, I am fully aware that expenditures are not straight line. Annual spending is reported in current terms and implementation of efficiencies and the effect of inflation means there will be year-on-year change.

Here’s the maths.

19-20 £6389m
20-21 £7364
21-22 £7613
22-23 estimate +10% £8375
23-24 + 4% £8710
CP6 TOTAL £38.5bn

Allowing 1.5% per year increase CP7 (inflation less efficiencies) and the CP7 total is £44.9bn (SoFA £44.1bn).

I do not consider that to be a cut. It’s actually a very good outcome given the current circumstances.

Please don’t question the future inflation- OBR forecasts are lower than my inflation assumptions - and let’s not use the Covid excuse.

Actuals have featured in every budgeting and planning exercise in my 30-year industry career and will have been part of DfT / NR CP7 negotiations too.

 

[Horizon22]

It's interesting how NR are getting a not appalling offer, but the TOCs are going to get potentially a dire time of it (and in many ways already are). Equally strange when it's all the same money effectively anyway.

 

[Glenn1969]

Given the current economic climate and 21/22 passenger numbers the SOFA was positive and could have been much worse. Providing inflation falls back to expected levels in 2023, it’s a good outcome, though I don’t anticipate CP7 enhancements (not part of this SoFA) to include anything significant beyond what’s already announced. Smaller schemes delivering best value will be the new norm.

Examples of the type of new enhancements to expect include Manchester Oxford Road (2 through platforms and middle turnback), Basingstoke freight capacity loop, Micheldever turnback and East Devon loop.

Inflation is not expected to fall back to its 2% target until late 2024 at the earliest according to what the Bank of England have been saying. Personally I think Russia will still be at war with Ukraine until the end of the decade at the earliest unless someone takes Putin out first. So god only knows what the effect on our economy and Government spending on things like railways will be !

 

[Xavi]

Inflation is not expected to fall back to its 2% target until late 2024 at the earliest according to what the Bank of England have been saying. Personally I think Russia will still be at war with Ukraine until the end of the decade at the earliest unless someone takes Putin out first. So god only knows what the effect on our economy and Government spending on things like railways will be !

Yes, the unpredictability of the economic outlook is one reason why SoFA was a good result. My expectation in my business forecasting was 10% lower. CP7 starts in 2024, and I’ve allowed higher inflation before then in this quick example.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Dec 2022 ==

It's interesting how NR are getting a not appalling offer, but the TOCs are going to get potentially a dire time of it (and in many ways already are). Equally strange when it's all the same money effectively anyway.

Yes indeed. I’m delighted that the regulatory asset base can be maintained for CP7 with the NR settlement. No railway, no trains whatever the TOC support.

 

[Snow1964]

Seems ORR has opened a consultation on Holding Network Rail to Account for CP7 on 13th April

Updating the holding Network Rail to account policy for CP7

Seeks feedback on an updated version of our 'Holding Network Rail to account' policy for control period 7.

www.gov.uk

We are consulting on an updated version of our 'holding Network Rail to account' policy for control period 7 (CP7). The policy:

• sets out how we will hold Network Rail to account for delivery of the commitments in our PR23 final determination and the obligations in its network licence
• explains how we will monitor performance, escalate and investigate potential issues and where necessary, take enforcement action.

Our PR23 policy framework consultation conclusions in December 2022 confirmed that we would refresh and update the policy for CP7. We would not however make significant changes to the underlying principles, tools and approach, reflecting that we consider them fit for purpose in the current context and ahead of rail reform.

Consultation on updating the holding Network Rail to account policy for CP7 | Office of Rail and Road

This consultation seeks feedback on updating the Holding Network Rail to Account policy for control period 7.

www.orr.gov.uk

 

[Snow1964]

Network Rail has published detailed CP7 for Western and Wales, and other areas

lots of long PDFs, so not quoting as really need to open on a decent size screen to view all the associated graphs, and tables etc

South West

Network Rail’s Western route puts passengers and freight at the heart of a new five-year plan for the railway

Network Rail today published its £5.2bn, five-year plan (2024-29, Control Period 7 - CP7) for the railway in the Wales and Western region, that sees £3.3bn investment in the Western route, that will focus on tackling climate change, improving train performance from current levels, investing in...

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

Wales and Welsh borders

Network Rail’s Wales and Borders route puts passengers and freight at the heart of a new five-year plan for the railway

Network Rail today published its £5.2bn, five-year plan (2024-29, Control Period 7 - CP7) for the railway in Wales and Western, that sees £1.9bn investment in the Wales and Borders route, that will focus on tackling climate change, improving train performance from current levels, investing in...

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

North West and Central

Five-year investment plan for ‘Backbone of Britain’ railway revealed

Passengers and freight at heart of £8.5bn railway investment in Network Rail’s North West and Central region over next five years Climate change resilience, passenger and worker safety and train performance recognised as fundamental to running a reliable and efficient railway Readying existing...

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

National

Passengers and freight at the heart of new £44bn, five-year plan for our railway

Network Rail today published its £44bn, five-year plan (2024-29, Control Period 7 – CP7) for the railway in England and Wales that sees increased investment in tackling climate change, improving train performance from current levels, investing in things that matter most to passengers and freight...

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

One common nugget is that EC4T (electricity costs for traction) has gone up 55% between CP6 and CP7 (£2.5 billion to £4.1 billion).
This cost is passed on to the TOCs.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

One common nugget is that EC4T (electricity costs for traction) has gone up 55% between CP6 and CP7 (£2.5 billion to £4.1 billion).
This cost is passed on to the TOCs.

Err.... these numbers are totals over 5 years, not per annum. Will be about £2-2.5m or so a day, about 1/3rd of which is the effect of fixed supplements (a panopoly of levies) and costs (standing charge equivalents). Another way of thinking about it, about 10% of the cost of your ticket goes on the leccy bill, with the rest left over to pay the staff, ROSCOs, cleaners etc... before DfT/Transport Scotland/TfL chip in their share.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

NR made a splash last time it did a deal with EDF for electricity (supposedly carbon-free), but that deal has either expired or is close to it.
Presumably the CP7 charges are from a new deal reflecting the present global price situation, though I haven't seen any details.

 

[Elecman]

NR made a splash last time it did a deal with EDF for electricity (supposedly carbon-free), but that deal has either expired or is close to it.
Presumably the CP7 charges are from a new deal reflecting the present global price situation, though I haven't seen any details.

Indeed it expires end of this year A new deal had been struck with another supplier for all NRs Electric

 

[stuu]

Slightly surprised to see there will be no high output track renewals in CP6. Wasn't that supposed to be a more efficient way of working?

 

[WatcherZero]

Yes, I am fully aware that expenditures are not straight line. Annual spending is reported in current terms and implementation of efficiencies and the effect of inflation means there will be year-on-year change.

Here’s the maths.

19-20 £6389m
20-21 £7364
21-22 £7613
22-23 estimate +10% £8375
23-24 + 4% £8710
CP6 TOTAL £38.5bn

Allowing 1.5% per year increase CP7 (inflation less efficiencies) and the CP7 total is £44.9bn (SoFA £44.1bn).

I do not consider that to be a cut. It’s actually a very good outcome given the current circumstances.

Please don’t question the future inflation- OBR forecasts are lower than my inflation assumptions - and let’s not use the Covid excuse.

Actuals have featured in every budgeting and planning exercise in my 30-year industry career and will have been part of DfT / NR CP7 negotiations too.

NR give the comparison as follows indexed for 2023/24
CP6 expenditure £40.80 bn, CP7 expenditure £44.08bn an 8.1% increase
Excluding electricity:
CP6 expenditure £38.16 bn, CP7 expenditure £40.02bn a 4.9% increase

Operations, Maintenance and Support +3.1%
Renewals -0.9%
Industry costs and rates +9.5%
Electricity costs +54%

Income
Passenger track access charges +1.1%
Station and depot charges +1.6%
Freight and Open Access Charges -4.8%
Property and other commercial income -11.8%
Schedule 4 (regional excess renewals charge) and Schedule 8 (Operator fines for poor schedule performance) income -66.9%
Traction electricity charges +53.7%
Network Grant +7.1%
Total CP6 £40.8bn total CP7 £44.08bn +8.1%

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/England-and-Wales-CP7-Strategic-Business-Plan.pdf

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2023 ==

Slightly surprised to see there will be no high output track renewals in CP6. Wasn't that supposed to be a more efficient way of working?

This is what the North West Business Plan says on the topic, pg 85:

High output and wheeled plant We currently do not have high output ballast cleaning and track renewal volumes included within our CP7 plan. However, we are continuing to work with Route Services and other regions to identify high output requirements across the business so that we can determine, and plan for, the high output system capability that we need in CP7.

And Page 127

Out (sic.) plans assume the ongoing operation in CP7 of one TRS and one BCS to support delivery of our WCML (N) programme and critical track renewals on the WCML (S)

Finally these are the headline (non routine) CP7 schemes on my patch North West and Central

South
* Rerailing track at high criticality sites at Denbigh Hall and Hanslope Junction to maintain performance on high use, high priority lines.
* Key signalling life extension works at Northampton and Willesden, alongside works to move recontrol to Rugby from Marston Vale and Stoke
* Rewiring the fire suppression system at London Euston
* Renewal of the 11kv DC cables on Euston-Watford DC network traction supply
* Replacement of 25kv oil filled breakers at Camden and Wembley
Central
* Signalling life extension works Worcester area, Marylebone, Aston, and Stourbridge.
* Renewal of level crossings at Gloucester and Stourbridge
* Earthworks schemes to address high risk areas into Birmingham and at Harbury and Ledbury.
* Renewal of Birminham New Street OHLE
* Replacement of 25kV oil filled life-expired circuit breakers (installed in 1958 – 1963) which are high-risk hazards.
* Renewal of London Marylebone trainshed
* Footbridge renewal at Wendover and staircase renewal at Tyseley station
North
* Crewe Hub.
* Critical track renewals on the approach to Manchester Piccadilly.
* Resignalling Crewe as well as Cumbria, Buxton, Great Rocks, Chester, and Stockport.
* Renewal of level crossings in the Silecroft area, Wigan – Stockport, and Deansgate Junction
* Earthwork to address flood issues at Ashton Heath, Worleston Embankment and Chorley Flying Arches.
* Targeted (small scale) schemes to improve station canopies, platform condition, station buildings, footbridges, and lift renewals and toilet refurbishment at Manchester Piccadilly and Liverpool Lime Street.
* Replacement of life expired and failing OHLE on WCML(N)
* Replacement of oil filled 25kv breakers in the Liverpool and Manchester areas installed between 1958-1963.
WCML (N) Programme
* Seperate planned major renewal and upgrade program spanning CP7 and CP8 last done in the 70's and to support introduction of HS2.
* Resignalling at Warrington and re signalling scope at Preston and Carlisle delivered in CP7 with ETCS switch on in CP8
* Overhead line renewals between Crewe and Preston, and north of Preston
* Essential track renewals between Crewe and Carlisle to accommodate greater traffic flows with HS2 trains alongside exiting traffic and to meet government freight growth targets.
* Accessibility and dwell time improvements at 13 stations.

 

[59CosG95]

Good to see that, on the Western Route newsflash, NR are looking to increase the resilience of the OLE between Paddington and Hayes & Harlington (read: Stockley Jn).

 

[LOL The Irony]

So what are they doing in the North West apart from (presumably) replacing the Ansaldo signalling and extending some of that new signalling around Cheshire?

 

[WatcherZero]

Literally two posts above yours!

 

[LOL The Irony]

Literally two posts above yours!

General maintenance shouldn't be a selling point of a control period.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So what are they doing in the North West apart from (presumably) replacing the Ansaldo signalling and extending some of that new signalling around Cheshire?

It's most unlikely the modern Ansaldo signalling will be replaced.
The "resignalling...Stockport" reference is actually to life extension of assets (presumably at the "Stockport 5" AB boxes).

• Key resignalling schemes are part of Crewe Hub and WCML (N) programmes, with additional expenditure focused on extension of assets in Cumbria, Buxton, Great Rocks, Chester, and Stockport.

 

[ABB125]

The list of schemes above confirms that Worcester will not be being resignalled, instead the existing semaphores will be life extended. Which presumably means no changes to the track layout.

 

[59CosG95]

Interesting to see that West Coast South also has "Replacement of level crossings with overbridges to reduce safety risk" as a key point for CP7.
What Level Crossings does the WCS route have left?
I've counted 13no. road crossings on the Marston Vale Line, but I'm unsure if that's what's being alluded to.
There are also, as potential candidates:

• Bushey Mill Lane LC (by Watford North)
• Aston-by-Stone LC
• Church Ln (Redhill Rd) LC
• Meaford LC, Stone
• Barlaston LC
• Wedgwood LC
• A Farm Xing nr Church Lawton, east of Alsager
• B5078 Radway Green Rd LC
• Mill Lane UWC (between Alsager & Crewe)
• Hall Drive/Lake View, Alsager (not an LC in the strictest sense, but an Ely-esque setup with an underbridge (low height) and farm crossing adjacent to each other)
• Road access to Crewe Arriva Traincare (over the Alsager line)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The list of schemes above confirms that Worcester will not be being resignalled, instead the existing semaphores will be life extended. Which presumably means no changes to the track layout.

dam sight cheaper to extend the life of mechanical signalling as long as its got AWS and TPWS than expend huge amounts of cost on resignalling the layout and its irony that mechanical signalling is seeing off both original MAS schemes of the 60's and there subsequent replacements.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What Level Crossings does the WCS route have left?

I am not aware of any level crossings on the WCML south of Rugby at all, so the Marston Vale and/or St Albans is probably it.

Renewal of MYB trainshed is interesting - I didn't know it was in poor condition, it doesn't look it!

 

[E27007]

Here is a link to a Government Web page. The Railway Act (2005) , the Secretary of State declares the objectives for NR for the CP7 5-year period April 2024 to March 2029

NR Control Period CP7 , Statement by the Secretary of State