I'm afraid I'm in the "believe it when I see it" camp on this. Unfortunately when we see stuff like schools being closed after one day, or the debacle over Christmas, anything is possible. Unfortunately, I do sense that the media mood is largely negative - which means Boris needs to hold his nerve, meanwhile we wait to see what the devolved powers will do... Sturgeon is bound to see if she can find a "Scotland would be okay if it wasn't for England / The Tories / Boris" policy, and NI tends to align to RO, so a lot perhaps depends on what Drakeford decides to do.
Maybe, but don't forget restrictions mean even more cost, which will in the near future mean more cutbacks, tax increases etc, etc. The GE may still be three years away, the consequences of the vast cost are going to have to start to be paid for before then. That's why the Tories have started to get twitchy about ongoing restrictions, they will want to get at least some of the pain out of the way before the 2024 campaign gets under way.