Could HS2 impact on MML electrification?

[Bald Rick]

so what is it based on, then?

Significant additional capacity released on the WCML, MML and ECML
Regeneration and economic growth of the midlands and north
Journey time savings for existing passengers, of which business passengers make up a small fraction.

 

[edwin_m]

Except that if HS2b East is built surely all London to everywhere north of Leicester traffic and most East Midlands to Yorkshire traffic will be diverted to HS2?

Not necessarily. Toton will be about 53min from Euston via HS2, which will be fine for the drive-up catchment or, for example, accessing western suburbs of Nottingham by tram. But the tram is too slow to be competitive to get to the centre of Nottingham, and will be for Derby too if extended there. The quickest way to either city centre will be a connecting train service, which involves either finding extra capacity on a busy section of the network, or diverting existing services and slowing other journeys. This would give an end to end time of around 100min depending on how tight the Toton connections can be timetabled (and needs trains for both cities to use the same section of track so one will have to wait for the other).

A MML service with only a Leicester stop will get to Derby or Nottingham in around 90min, so only about 10min slower than the route via HS2. Many people will be willing to trade that extra time to avoid a change of train.

Ironically the fastest London-Nottingham/Derby service of all will be if HS2 is permanently truncated at East Midlands Parkway. Either city could then be reached in about 65min, and Sheffield (via Derby) would also be substantially quicker than today although somewhat slower than via HS2 and the Tibshelf connection.

 

[Nottingham59]

Journey time savings for existing passengers, of which business passengers make up a small fraction.

Business passengers may make up a minority of the total number of passengers carried, but the HS2 economic case puts such a high value on their time in the BCR calculations that the user benefits attributed to business users are twice the benefits attributed to commuter and leisure users combined, and three times the Wider economic impacts.

FULL HS2 NETWORK
Transport user benefits: Business 40.5 Bn
Transport user benefits: Commuter/Leisure 19.3 Bn
Wider economic impacts: 13.3 Bn
Other: -2.1 Bn
TOTAL: 71.0 Bn

[Taken from: Table 23: Transport user benefits by journey purpose, and Table 20: Estimated benefits of HS2 https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13412.htm]

The total benefit of HS2 full network was calculated at £71Bn, of which well over half was the value of time saved by business travellers.

You may or may not agree that business travellers should be given such prominence in the calculations, but without them the case for HS2 fails. And since most long distance business travellers currently on MML will divert to HS2, I can't see how the economic case for further electrification will succeed.

 

[Bald Rick]

Business passengers may make up a minority of the total number of passengers carried, but the HS2 economic case puts such a high value on their time in the BCR calculations that the user benefits attributed to business users are twice the benefits attributed to commuter and leisure users combined, and three times the Wider economic impacts.

FULL HS2 NETWORK
Transport user benefits: Business 40.5 Bn
Transport user benefits: Commuter/Leisure 19.3 Bn
Wider economic impacts: 13.3 Bn
Other: -2.1 Bn
TOTAL: 71.0 Bn

[Taken from: Table 23: Transport user benefits by journey purpose, and Table 20: Estimated benefits of HS2 https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13412.htm]

The total benefit of HS2 full network was calculated at £71Bn, of which well over half was the value of time saved by business travellers.

You may or may not agree that business travellers should be given such prominence in the calculations, but without them the case for HS2 fails. And since most long distance business travellers currently on MML will divert to HS2, I can't see how the economic case for further electrification will succeed.

Transport User Benefits is not the same as benefits due to journey time savings. The latter is a subset of the former.

 

[Nottingham59]

Transport User Benefits is not the same as benefits due to journey time savings. The latter is a subset of the former.

Yes, I know. But most of those benefits still accrue to the user. If that user goes via HS2, then those benefits will not be available to justify MML electrification. Which is where we came in....

Ironically the fastest London-Nottingham/Derby service of all will be if HS2 is permanently truncated at East Midlands Parkway.

Yes, I think that's true. Designing HS2 as an integral part of the existing network, rather than a stand-alone overlay would have given a far better outcome overall

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes, I know. But most of those benefits still accrue to the user. If that user goes via HS2, then those benefits will not be available to justify MML electrification. Which is where we came in....

Well that depends a) how much benefit electrification gives to journey times on the MML (answer, not much) and b) how soon it would be electrified compared to HS2 eastern branch opening (answer, at least 10 years).

 

[NotATrainspott]

Yes - that's the whole point. The diversion of this traffic to HS2 is likely to undermine any business case for further electrification on the MML

If there are going to continue to be train services along the MML, then what is going to power them? Diesel is out of the question. Bio-diesel and other artificial, lower-carbon fossil fuels also seem unlikely. If it's not full electrification, then it's either batteries or hydrogen, and hydrogen is also fairly dubious. So really, we're talking about electrification with varying degrees of battery use. The MML does not strike me as the sort of route that you'd want to leave reliant on battery power. It's a mainline route, not a rural branch line.

 

[Class 170101]

Whilst HS2 might have an impact on MML wiring surely to maintain connectivity Leicester to Toton HS2, Toton HS2 to Derby and Toton HS2 to Nottingham will need to be wired anyway as well as HS2 Erewash Valley link to Sheffield to enable through HS2 trains?

At this point only Market Harborough to Leicester and Derby to Chesterfield (and Nottingham to Erewash Valley HS2 / MML connection) remain unwired which seem like silly little bits to me to leave un-wired.

At this point I would bring in another major topic and that is climate change conference at COP26 later this year. I think that might have more bearing than HS2B Eastern which the BBC has got hold of. MML wires hopefully before HS2B Eastern by 2040.

HS2 leg to Leeds will go ahead, says Shapps

The eastern branch of the planned high speed rail network will be completed, the transport secretary says.

www.bbc.co.uk

HS2 leg to Leeds will go ahead, says Shapps

The HS2 high speed rail network's eastern leg, linking Birmingham to Leeds, will go ahead and could even be delivered earlier than planned, the transport secretary has said.
But further work was needed on how to integrate it with plans for northern powerhouse rail, said Grant Shapps.
The HS2 network is due to be built in stages, with the final leg to Leeds completed by 2040.