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Could HS2 impact on MML electrification?
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It really isn’t!
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Killingworth
Established Member
Another thread, another day.
Glenn1969
Established Member
Will government approve wiring full length MML AND HS2b East?
Or is it likely to be one or the other ?
Or is it likely to be one or the other ?
zwk500
Veteran Member
HS2b East, if built, will be wired. Funding for MML and HS2b East will be independent of each other. Both will stand or fall on their own merits.
Glenn1969
Established Member
My point being I don't think both will be approved. And if it's true that NR are saying Sheffield by 2028 it's bad news for HS2b East which covers the same area in the East Midlands and Sheffield
ohgoditsjames
Member
Parts of the line will need to be wired anyway for HS2 so maybe the logic is to fully wire it now before HS2 is built.
adamedwards
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Assuming the full electrification to Sheffield goes ahead, are there any purely local EMT services which can then switch to EMUs from DMUs? I am assuming not many? I am assuming a Leicester - Derby - Sheffield local would be of limited value (and probably no paths anyway).
Nottingham59
Established Member
They can't be independent of each other. Neither investment will cover its costs, so you have to calculate the Benefit / Cost ratio (BCR). The benefits are driven mostly by time-savings of people on business trips, with some contribution from commuters. Any one business trip can go either via HS2 or via MML, but not both.
(But, of course, if they curtail the HS2b East just to East Midlands Parkway (EMD), then any electrification north of there will carry both. So I expect that someone is doing those calculations right now.)
Killingworth
Established Member
But if they electrified Nottingham - Sheffield, Sheffield - Leeds, Sheffield - Doncaster and Doncaster - Hull. Hang on. Time for more universally workable bimodes to use the patchwork of wires as they join up, or don't.
No routes for pure EMUs but quite possibly lots with scope for bimodes like the class 755.
I've listed the possible routes I can think of at the moment but the routes that cross from Derby to Nottingham could be reshuffled in the future as they have just been in the May timetable change.
Matlock to Nottingham could be electric from Ambergate to Nottingham and would avoid all the planning hassles of putting wires up through to Matlock.
The Newark Castle to Crewe would have wires from Nottingham to Derby and also Stoke to Crewe. [Forum bingo alert, could continue to Manchester Airport in the future]
The Leicester to Lincoln could be electric from Leicester to Nottingham assuming the slow lines are included.
The planned Derby to Norwich would be electric Derby to Nottingham and from Grantham to Peterborough.
I think there is enough routes there for them not to be a micro fleet.
(Edited as I got the amount of electrifcation in East Anglia wrong)
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ohgoditsjames
Member
Bimode could be used on the Liverpool - Manchester - Sheffield - Nottingham route too.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
It would only be electric between Liverpool and South Parkway, Trafford to Stockport, Dore into Sheffield and back out to Chesterfield, and for the last mile into Nottingham.
59CosG95
Established Member
That assumes the Erewash route remains unwired. Who knows - it may be!
ohgoditsjames
Member
A damn sight better than it is currently!
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All I would say is that depends on availability of maintenance access. If its both lines isolated on a two track railway rather than Adjacent Line Open Working then that will be more difficult to get and consequently more expensive as the only access suitable for OLE work might well be on Saturday and Sunday nights only.
59CosG95
Established Member
One of the pros of the MML's headspans is the dual insulators between the pairs of tracks to allow for isolating 2/4 lines at any one time. Not sure how often it's used in practice for ALO working though!
In reality, when Leicester is done, all 125mph bits turns on for electric, and the MML is fully wired to Sheffield, it will still be 1h50m or so, at best.
That's 55 minutes longer than to Manchester post-HS2, so I really can't see how MML can be a replacement for HS2 East. Leeds being the biggest driver anyway.
MML is for the South Midlands' outer commuting, and the East Midlands cities. Sheffield is a Northern city as an end point, and would become HS2 territory. The MML would still play a huge role, although perhaps stopping patterns would change a little, and all run more semi-fast. An electric train might be able to make 1 stop in the time a diesel does Leicester non-stop today.
That's 55 minutes longer than to Manchester post-HS2, so I really can't see how MML can be a replacement for HS2 East. Leeds being the biggest driver anyway.
MML is for the South Midlands' outer commuting, and the East Midlands cities. Sheffield is a Northern city as an end point, and would become HS2 territory. The MML would still play a huge role, although perhaps stopping patterns would change a little, and all run more semi-fast. An electric train might be able to make 1 stop in the time a diesel does Leicester non-stop today.
Nottingham59
Established Member
I agree. The problem with HS2 has always been that it has been designed as a separate system, and not part of the wider network. If it succeeds, it will undermine the business case for investment in the rest of the network.
zwk500
Veteran Member
It's part of the Network because it's a separate system. It takes the strain off the MML by removing the pressure on journey times and so opens up opportunities for better regional connectivity. The business case for intervention to the rest of the network will be about unlocking that regional benefit. It might even make electrification more affordable as the spec can be dropped to 100mph as there's no need to compete with the non-stop HS2 trains.
Nottingham59
Established Member
Doesn't that rather prove my point? HS2 undermines the business case for upgrading the OHLE south of Bedford.
zwk500
Veteran Member
I was talking about the Sheffield/Derby/Nottingham/Trent Jns area. That's where local connectivity will be more important. Leicester and Corby (and south thereof) the pressure on journey times will still be felt, although HS2 will help by reducing the need for the longer-distance services.
Travelling to France, Kent, Gatwick or Brighton from Derby is one change at present. Do I want to go to Euston and then have to walk across London to get to St Pancras - no thank you! It will not be any quicker or easier. MML electrification will improve these journeys. Sheffield and further North will benefit but not Nottingham and Derby. HS2 may make travelling to Scotland easier and quicker.
Nottingham59
Established Member
Better tell HS2 that, then, because the business case for whole HS2 programme is based on the time saved by business travellers travelling on HS2 instead of the MML (and the other classic lines). I don't know what percentage of the current Nottingham/Derby to London traffic was assumed to go via HS2, but I am prepared to wager that is was quite a substantial fraction.
quantinghome
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Nope. The "business case for the whole HS2 programme" is based on the time saved and capacity increase of HS2 instead of the WCML, ECML, cross-country and yes, some journeys on the MML and also capacity freed up on the WCML and ECML. I suspect the MML will see less change than the WCML and ECML given the need to provide regional links between South Yorkshire, East Midlands, South Midlands and London.
Then you can still use the Derby-London train. Seriously, no one is going to stop you doing this. But other passengers will doubtless find it quicker and more convenient to use the HS2 station at Toton. And Nottingham will benefit from much much quicker journeys to Leeds, York and further north.
End state HS2 time for Euston to Piccadilly is 1h11 (from the HS2 website) so the difference is 39 minutes, not 55. Although I take your point.
No it isn’t.
Nottingham59
Established Member
Well, I agree with that! The service pattern on the MML assumed for the HS2 business case hardly changes at all. The service pattern assumed in PFMv7.1 for phase 2b is virtually identical to the current new timetable. So if these trains are still running there will be no extra paths freed up by HS2, and no extra capacity in terms of paths, (Though plenty of extra capacity in terms of seats, if as I suspect most of these trains will be empty north of Kettering when the long-distance traffic will have switched to HS2.)
[Taken from HS2 PLANET Framework Model: PFMv7.1 Assumptions Report]
The ECML is modelled with a much reduced number of paths, so plenty of path-capacity freed up on the ECML by HS2. Though again, I don't see what traffic flows are going to use that spare capacity - but the ECML is outside the scope of this thread.
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so what is it based on, then?
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Glenn1969
Established Member
Except that if HS2b East is built surely all London to everywhere north of Leicester traffic and most East Midlands to Yorkshire traffic will be diverted to HS2?
Nottingham59
Established Member
Yes - that's the whole point. The diversion of this traffic to HS2 is likely to undermine any business case for further electrification on the MML
zwk500
Veteran Member
The service pattern you posted would benefit hugely from electrification given the number of stops each train has in it! The advantages in local connectivity, as well as providing places like Loughborough with really good London links, are well worth putting wires up.
59CosG95
Established Member
Is all traffic from London to Dover Priory funnelled through HS1?
Is all London to Birmingham traffic funnelled through the WCML?
No.
The existing services aren't going to go away on the MML, just as they haven't for HS1 or for HS2 Phase 1. Yes, some of the calling points may change a bit, but the need to provide communities with connectivity hasn't evaporated overnight.
You wouldn't run dedicated EMR Intercity services from Notts to Kettering, expecting all on board to change there for St Pancras. Some folk may get on that train at Leicester, wishing to go to London, and would be rather put out at a forced change.
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