Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

[HSTEd]

But if the railway needs to force hordes of people into cattle trucks every morning and evening to be viable, and charge the customer an arm and a leg for the pleasure, then it's not really a good system.

Ultimately without tearing down the system and all its working practices and starting again, its the system we are stuck with.
Even the dreaded three letter acronym causes massive industrial strife and rollouts of new systems that started years ago won't be complete in the lifetimes of almost everyone on this board.

The railway is ultimately moribund, and noone would accept the disruption and investment necessary to save it.

Imagine if all the airlines crammed hundreds of passengers onto 'crush loaded planes' and told the passenger it's the only way they can make money, like it or lump it.

The only reason they don't do that is because various civil aviation regulators won't let them!
And 30" seat pitch and 17" seat widths [Ryanair] produces a much higher density seating environment than pretty much anything on the railway!

~3 passengers per sq.m! It's higher than a rated load Class 700!

 

[NSEFAN]

Ultimately without tearing down the system and all its working practices and starting again, its the system we are stuck with.
Even the dreaded three letter acronym causes massive industrial strife and rollouts of new systems that started years ago won't be complete in the lifetimes of almost everyone on this board.

The railway is ultimately moribund, and noone would accept the necessary disruption and investment necessary to save it.


The only reason they don't do that is because various civil aviation regulators won't let them!
And 30" seat pitch and 17" seat widths [Ryanair] produces a much higher density seating environment than pretty much anything on the railway!

~3 passengers per sq.m! It's higher than a rated load Class 700!

Airlines are also not generally required to run loss-making services and routes in the way that railways are.

 

[mrmartin]

Crush loaded trains were what was paying for all this! At least in terms of money not provided by the state as subsidy.

In the short term yes. But in the longer term there will be enormous savings from not having to do eye wateringly expensive track realigniment and resignalling just to fit another few trains through in the peak. I wonder what the overall cost of these projects, additional peak only rolling stock etc has been over the past 10 years (say?) - I imagine it equalises the loss in fare revenue.

 

[Ken H]

In the short term yes. But in the longer term there will be enormous savings from not having to do eye wateringly expensive track realigniment and resignalling just to fit another few trains through in the peak. I wonder what the overall cost of these projects, additional peak only rolling stock etc has been over the past 10 years (say?) - I imagine it equalises the loss in fare revenue.

Investment that may now be wasted. Little can be recovered for reuse where its now needed.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Imagine if all the airlines crammed hundreds of passengers onto 'crush loaded planes' and told the passenger it's the only way they can make money, like it or lump it.

Wasn't something similar to that, part of both Ryanair's and Easyjet's business model(s) for many years?

 

[HSTEd]

In the short term yes. But in the longer term there will be enormous savings from not having to do eye wateringly expensive track realigniment and resignalling just to fit another few trains through in the peak. I wonder what the overall cost of these projects, additional peak only rolling stock etc has been over the past 10 years (say?) - I imagine it equalises the loss in fare revenue.

I'm not so sure.

The shear number of trains being run over these lines means they amortise pretty quickly.

As opposed to freight projects like the Werrington Flyover.

 

[takno]

Investment that may now be wasted. Little can be recovered for reuse where its now needed.

There isn't any sign that the improved capacity isn't needed. It can be used now to provide a robust, reliable and useful service throughout the week, with potentially lower staffing and maintenance costs. Even the most ambitious upgrades in London commuter-land have never been specced beyond just-about-coping with the peak, and much of it is essential to continuing to meet demand throughout the day.

 

[43066]

Leisure travel is through the roof and people are returning to work etc.

Only blot is home working/hybrid working reduces the previous sky high demand for rush hour trains. But then cattle trucks into the office Monday-Friday, for a 3 hour round trip, on 6 thousand pound a year season tickets, or whatever, were never good for the passenger anyway. That is why people are eager to work from home and it makes for a more comfortable journey for those that can't, if they can get a seat on a train in the morning, or at least a bit of space.

Crush loaded trains were never something to celebrate and this is where we are at weekends now, more than 8am on a Monday morning, for example.

Agreed with all of this. Staggered start times during the week leading to a smoothing of the traditional peaks and troughs, in favour of greater all day demand, is a good thing for all concerned. It’s also reflective of a trend that was observable long before covid.

Crush loaded trains were what was paying for all this! At least in terms of money not provided by the state as subsidy.

And there are plenty of crush loaded trains on the network today. Just not at the dates and times we had grown accustomed to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jun 2022 ==

The railway is ultimately moribund, and noone would accept the disruption and investment necessary to save it.

This statement is demonstrably nonsensical with reference to the current usage figures.

 

[bramling]

The planning wasn't the best on that weekend with "Slam Dunk" at Hatfield the same weekend, both road (A1) and rail suffered. I feel rail got the majority of the negative publicity.

One thing that I find interesting is they tend to keep trains to their diagrams. For example Moorgate - Welwyn Garden City is about every 30 mins on a Saturday. Some trains arrived 2h+ late, their return service did the same. I know they probably have good reasons but they don't seem to cancel the 1405 and run the 1605 on time. (rather then run the 1405 2 hours late and cancel the 1605).

On the latter point, it all depends on what the driver does - though with a crew depot at Welwyn one would expect some degree of “making up” to happen there.

Having said that, the current setup is that trains tend to do Welwyn - Moorgate - Stevenage via Hertford - Moorgate - Welwyn. This will have a bearing on things, as it makes it rather less practicable to just miss a trip out.

 

[Bald Rick]

Things are looking up: there’s every reason to suppose both the 2019 usage and revenue figures will be surpassed in fairly short order.

depends what you means by ‘short order’.

no chance of it happening this side of 2026.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jun 2022 ==

The great shame of the situation is that those figures could be better still if it wasn’t for swathes of the network (in Northern and TPE land) being held back by DfT intransigence in not allowing RDW deals to be renewed, thus preventing a more complete (and reliable) timetable from being operated.

of course it takes two sides to agree a RDW deal

for Northern, not running those services is unquestionably saving cash; there are very, very few Northern services that cover their marginal operating costs, let alone make a contribution to rolling stock leases, overheads or infrastructure costs.

 

[Failed Unit]

for Northern, not running those services is unquestionably saving cash; there are very, very few Northern services that cover their marginal operating costs, let alone make a contribution to rolling stock leases, overheads or infrastructure costs.

I know that back in Central Trains day one of the managers said the same thing about strengthing trains for the Lincoln Christmas market. "It is very difficult to make money when your are only getting £5 per return journey between Lincoln and Nottingham" That view was when they were using stock that would normally just be sat in Tyseley.

But just on that point, a 195 from Northern must cost more to lease then a pacer, but is it as bad on many of the regional services if the lease was £0 they would still stuggle to make any money?

I know that is the problem with regional serives, a rammed 2 car service is making less money then a half full 4 car service in the SouthEast. But it I do wonder how serial new stock franchises like the West Midlands manage to keep increasing their leasing bills to the extent they do with constantly refreshing thier fleet.

 

[Watershed]

I know that back in Central Trains day one of the managers said the same thing about strengthing trains for the Lincoln Christmas market. "It is very difficult to make money when your are only getting £5 per return journey between Lincoln and Nottingham" That view was when they were using stock that would normally just be sat in Tyseley.

But just on that point, a 195 from Northern must cost more to lease then a pacer, but is it as bad on many of the regional services if the lease was £0 they would still stuggle to make any money?

I know that is the problem with regional serives, a rammed 2 car service is making less money then a half full 4 car service in the SouthEast. But it I do wonder how serial new stock franchises like the West Midlands manage to keep increasing their leasing bills to the extent they do with constantly refreshing thier fleet.

The marginal operating costs almost pale into insignificance when you account for the relevant proportion of Network Rail's costs in maintaining the route. Northern are the only operator on many routes; if it weren't for their services, these routes could close.

Hence why even pre-Covid, Northern's level of subsidy was joint first with TfW, at 29p per passenger-km.

 

[gazzaa2]

Wasn't something similar to that, part of both Ryanair's and Easyjet's business model(s) for many years?

That's why I specified all, but at least those airlines would significantly drop the price for a standing ticket which was an optional choice for passengers on short flights on budget airlines. It's a false equivalence because you got what you paid for.

You weren't paying through the nose to stand in a vestibule for several hours from Glasgow to London on a weekend, or paying thousands on a season ticket to stand up every morning and evening for your rush hour commute on crush loaded trains.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

That's why I specified all, but at least those airlines would significantly drop the price for a standing ticket which was an optional choice for passengers on short flights on budget airlines. It's a false equivalence because you got what you paid for.

To be fair, you did so specify.

P.S. By standing ticket, presume you mean a standby ticket?

 

[Failed Unit]

The marginal operating costs almost pale into insignificance when you account for the relevant proportion of Network Rail's costs in maintaining the route. Northern are the only operator on many routes; if it weren't for their services, these routes could close.

Hence why even pre-Covid, Northern's level of subsidy was joint first with TfW, at 29p per passenger-km.

True. i suspect the “Joint line” is much more viable now it is a freight truck route. but I assume the train access charges are the same as if no freight was on the route. It is just network rail that get more income. (I pick that one as before the upgrade it was only open 8 hours so assume it cost too much for the passenger service to operate longer. )

 

[43066]

it all depends on what the driver does

It’s fair to say we’re an awkward and spiky bunch. What we do very much depends on how we’re spoken to, and whether the train we’re being asked to drive is pointing in the direction of home or not .

We don’t do “making up time” as a rule.

depends what you means by ‘short order’.

no chance of it happening this side of 2026.

“No chance”: that’s a mighty bold statement indeed, Mr. Rick. I’ll bet you a (metaphorical) pint in your St Albans boozer of choice that those figures will be surpassed within two years of now.

of course it takes two sides to agree a RDW deal

for Northern, not running those services is unquestionably saving cash; there are very, very few Northern services that cover their marginal operating costs, let alone make a contribution to rolling stock leases, overheads or infrastructure costs.

I understood they’d been unilaterally withdrawn…

It’s grim up north.

 

[Dr Hoo]

I'm not so sure.

The shear number of trains being run over these lines means they amortise pretty quickly.

As opposed to freight projects like the Werrington Flyover [Diveunder.]

Surely the point of the Werrington Diveunder (other loosely similar projects such as the Rugby re-modelling, Nuneaton North Chord, Trent Valley four-tracking and Reading re-modelling) is not really to 'benefit freight' directly, rather it is to free up fast passenger paths so that the 'sheer number' of amortising passenger trains can be increased. The ECML, WCML and GWML all manifest this policy.

 

[jayah]

There isn't any sign that the improved capacity isn't needed. It can be used now to provide a robust, reliable and useful service throughout the week, with potentially lower staffing and maintenance costs. Even the most ambitious upgrades in London commuter-land have never been specced beyond just-about-coping with the peak, and much of it is essential to continuing to meet demand throughout the day.

There is every sign the timetable is full of dead wood. Small, frequent services with few passengers are still the rule not the exception.

What has been cut has been uncoordinated and unstructured and the tide has gone out leaving holes and broken connection.

Pay is often debated. The truth is it is a small part of the cost base. Rolling stock and infrastructure maintenance costs are eye watering and the railway is massively over capitalised. The last thing it needs is even more track, signalling, pointwork carrying broadly the same income base.

Many of the frequency benefits only exist because connections are so poor.

 

[HSTEd]

Surely the point of the Werrington Diveunder (other loosely similar projects such as the Rugby re-modelling, Nuneaton North Chord, Trent Valley four-tracking and Reading re-modelling) is not really to 'benefit freight' directly, rather it is to free up fast passenger paths so that the 'sheer number' of amortising passenger trains can be increased. The ECML, WCML and GWML all manifest this policy.

Well that is one way of thinking about it.

Another view might be that the project exists to allow more very low performance freight trains to crawl across the junction. If those freight trains did not run the project would not be needed to "free up" fast paths.

 

[Bald Rick]

No chance”: that’s a mighty bold statement indeed, Mr. Rick. I’ll bet you a (metaphorical) pint in your St Albans boozer of choice that those figures will be surpassed within two years of now.

on an annual basis? Allowing for inflation? Bet taken!

I understood they’d been unilaterally withdrawn…

they have, and not by the train company.

 

[Bikeman78]

The only reason they don't do that is because various civil aviation regulators won't let them!
And 30" seat pitch and 17" seat widths [Ryanair] produces a much higher density seating environment than pretty much anything on the railway!

~3 passengers per sq.m! It's higher than a rated load Class 700!

I wouldn't know. I've never flown Ryanair and I have no intention of doing so. A 700 seems quite appealing by comparison.

 

[Moonshot]

depends what you means by ‘short order’.

no chance of it happening this side of 2026.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jun 2022 ==



of course it takes two sides to agree a RDW deal

for Northern, not running those services is unquestionably saving cash; there are very, very few Northern services that cover their marginal operating costs, let alone make a contribution to rolling stock leases, overheads or infrastructure costs.

Worth pointing out that for Northern, there is an actual RDW agreement on the table.......which has been politely declined. And rightly so.

 

[Falcon1200]

But then cattle trucks into the office Monday-Friday, for a 3 hour round trip, on 6 thousand pound a year season tickets, or whatever, were never good for the passenger anyway.

And not good for the railway either, given the resources needed to cope with peaks for a couple of hours in the morning and evening, five days a week, but under utilised the rest of the time.

Imagine if all the airlines crammed hundreds of passengers onto 'crush loaded planes' and told the passenger it's the only way they can make money, like it or lump it.

That is exactly what the airlines do ! Every single plane I have ever been on, whether low-cost carrier or not, had less seat space than any train.

What the railway does need to do now is recruit sufficient staff to provide the service, sort out somehow the myriad industrial relations issues, and adapt to the 'new normal' of travel patterns and demands. Probably not as simple as it sounds.....

 

[ar10642]

Indeed. The excellent recovery indicated by the figures merely confirms what has long been obvious to those of us at the sharp end and certainly exposes the “passengers will never come back” doom mongering of the past couple of years as utter nonsense. Of course those statements usually emanate from those with a particular axe to grind. Things are looking up: there’s every reason to suppose both the 2019 usage and revenue figures will be surpassed in fairly short order.

The great shame of the situation is that those figures could be better still if it wasn’t for swathes of the network (in Northern and TPE land) being held back by DfT intransigence in not allowing RDW deals to be renewed, thus preventing a more complete (and reliable) timetable from being operated.

All this talk of "excellent recovery" is about to be put in reverse by the extended strikes the RMT are threatening. Who in their right mind would be an advance ticket for this summer at the moment?

 

[bramling]

It’s fair to say we’re an awkward and spiky bunch. What we do very much depends on how we’re spoken to, and whether the train we’re being asked to drive is pointing in the direction of home or not .

We don’t do “making up time” as a rule.

Apologies I wasn’t quite clear, I meant “making up” as in incoming unit gets stepped up to a (hopefully right time or at least near to it) service for which there’s a driver ready and waiting due to pick up. Naturally only possible if the driver duties happen to facilitate.

As a point of interest, from a service recovery point of view Alexandra Palace or Finsbury Park on the up would be good places to have crew reliefs for the GN 717 services. Stuff could be renumbered with fresh crews without being too obvious to the passenger as everything would still go to Moorgate (apart from perhaps the odd train reversing at Drayton Park to recover time), and then you’d have everything right time and on path going north from Moorgate. The snag is of course there’s sidings at Welwyn so making it a good place for a crew depot.

As regards the smiley point, it would indeed be interesting from a curiosity point of view to have some download data fed into some kind of algorithm that could work out if run times happen to decrease slightly the further into a duty one progresses, especially for early turns!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jun 2022 ==

All this talk of "excellent recovery" is about to be put in reverse by the extended strikes the RMT are threatening. Who in their right mind would be an advance ticket for this summer at the moment?

Advance tickets must surely pale into insignificance compared to season ticket and commuting revenue. The car park at my local station, which is a reasonable barometer for things, has certainly found itself filling up more recently (albeit with a conspicuous drop on Mondays and Fridays, though the latter was the case pre Covid too), and the last few weeks have also found local roads back to being full of parked cars for people avoiding the station car park charges, something which had been very much absent during much of 2020 and 21.

 

[Taunton]

It’s fair to say we’re an awkward and spiky bunch. What we do very much depends on how we’re spoken to, and whether the train we’re being asked to drive is pointing in the direction of home or not

Indeed, though it's a good thing for all that many of us elsewhere in society have a different approach ...

The railway becoming irrelevant will be notably hastened by such a style. Today was I think the 6th morning, just in the first half of this year so far, 2022, that some of my staff have not been able to get in to work in the morning because of a strike on the Underground (March 1,2,3,4; June 6,7). Of course, nobody has been prevented from getting in by car. I'm sure it's a good giggle that after a 24 hour strike nothing can run in the following morning's peak either, thus causing disruption for two days.

 

[bramling]

Indeed, though it's a good thing for all that many of us elsewhere in society have a different approach ...

The railway becoming irrelevant will be notably hastened by such a style. Today was I think the 6th morning, just in the first half of this year so far, 2022, that some of my staff have not been able to get in to work in the morning because of a strike on the Underground (March 1,2,3,4; June 6,7). Of course, nobody has been prevented from getting in by car. I'm sure it's a good giggle that after a 24 hour strike nothing can run in the following morning's peak either, thus causing disruption for two days.

If one was a user of somewhere like Tufnell Park, finding the station closed is quite the common experience at the moment. Ditto plenty of small open-air stations seem to be unmanned most of the time. RMT can hardly be blamed for that - indeed with many stations running with multiple vacancies it seems they may well have a point that staffing numbers can’t realistically be further cut.

 

[Watershed]

If one was a user of somewhere like Tufnell Park, finding the station closed is quite the common experience at the moment. Ditto plenty of small open-air stations seem to be unmanned most of the time. RMT can hardly be blamed for that - indeed with many stations running with multiple vacancies it seems they may well have a point that staffing numbers can’t realistically be further cut.

I recently found Lancaster Gate station completely closed. No warning, nothing on the Line Status page, not even a notice at the station. Just closed shutters. It's very poor.

 

[bramling]

I recently found Lancaster Gate station completely closed. No warning, nothing on the Line Status page, not even a notice at the station. Just closed shutters. It's very poor.

Indeed. Whilst the whole political agenda is dominated by Johnson desperate to squat in no.10 for as long as he can get away with, none of these sorts of issues are receiving the scrutiny they deserve.

 

[miklcct]

I wouldn't know. I've never flown Ryanair and I have no intention of doing so. A 700 seems quite appealing by comparison.

There are some air routes from the UK which are only flown direct by Ryanair so you may not be able to avoid it no matter how bad the airline is!