Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

[Class 170101]

SWR stated in an Guardian article today that "rush hour arrivals have only recovered to 50% of pre-pandemic.

The tube was only 65% on Monday, while it was 95% last Saturday according to DfT stats.

While Northern is reporting passenger numbers at 125% at weekends.

Remember though Monday to Friday figures are larger than weekend figures in absolute terms (pre covid) so the railway is still carrying more passengers mid week than at weekends potentially.

 

[Ken H]

Remember though Monday to Friday figures are larger than weekend figures in absolute terms (pre covid) so the railway is still carrying more passengers mid week than at weekends potentially.

With a large overhead low variable cost business, if you lose a small part of sales, that has a big effect on the bottom line. So losing some season ticket business will hit hard.

 

[miklcct]

Remember though Monday to Friday figures are larger than weekend figures in absolute terms (pre covid) so the railway is still carrying more passengers mid week than at weekends potentially.

My experience on the Waterloo - Weymouth route is the exact opposite. The trains are always quiet in the traditional evening peak mid-week leaving London, but on weekends or Friday evening the trains are rammed. It was so bad before the May timetable change when there were only 5 fast coaches per hour (now restored to 10) to Bournemouth Friday evening compared to 20 off-peak.

I'm taking the same 15:05 from Waterloo "shoulder peak" (i.e. dividing at Southampton to a fast and a slow, but still maintains the usual calling pattern before on Monday - Friday) train on 31/5 (a weekday) and today 1/6 (the first day of a bank holiday). It was so quiet on 31/5 but today there are already more passengers than seats by Clapham Junction. Fortunately as a Saturday timetable is in place on a bank holiday all 10 coaches run semi-fast to Bournemouth so the train won't be overcrowded.

 

[GoneSouth]

Anybody quoting figures from this week should not the school holidays and double bank holiday which has encouraged a lot of folk to take the full week of work.

 

[Craig1122]

I can't see any difficulty in adding capacity outside peak hours. If trains run every 2 minutes in peak hours, just run them every 2 minutes when there is a surge demand expected.

If there is an issue in crew availability, then reduce frequency before the surge demand to preserve crews (e.g. if the usual headway is 15 minutes, cut it to 30 minutes while the concert is in place as long as the trains aren't full, such that there are enough crews to work trains every 5 minutes after the concert).

I'm a strong believer that more needs to be done to cater for this kind of peak but this certainly isn't as simple a solution as you suggest. It would take a huge amount of planning resource especially bearing in mind that concert and event times vary.

You need to put the spare trains somewhere when you cut the frequency. That takes time, staff and/or line capacity. Then the same when you bring them back out.

You need to make sure you've also aligned fleet maintenance planning. Just because you run a certain frequency during the traditional peak doesn't mean the stock to do it is automatically available at any time of day.

Cutting trains at 8pm doesn't necessarily 'preserve' crews to use at 10pm because if they've already started work then their working day is still ticking by whether or not they're on a train.

London Underground traditionally used this approach to run all night for new year. In effect the crews are released by running a much less frequent service than normal the following morning. However a line like the Jubilee with frequent events at the O2 and Wembley is basically timetabled with sufficient capacity for them every weekend. This comes back to what someone said up thread that the most effective approach is to increase your baseline of traffic such that events don't represent such a big percentage increase. That's why generally the South East seems to cope a bit better than regional services, because huge extra capacity is already there for commuting.

 

[bramling]

Given how quickly the tube seemed to bounce back initially, it’s interesting to note its recovery has tracked heavy rail a lot more closely than I would have realised.

Also interesting to note that recovery in heavy rail use now seems to be consistently ahead of that of LU.

I’m guessing it’s the high peak that’s still missing on LU, as any other time feels as busy as it ever was. I did a rare for me journey from High Barnet into London last month at 0745, and by East Finchley there were still only about 5-10 in each car. That said, a bit later and trains were certainly much busier. It seems London’s morning peak now resembles what we see in other cities - much more concentrated on the immediate hour before and after work.

I’m not as convinced as some are that it was ever really capable of doing this.

It isn’t like the road network is particularly wonderful when there’s events either. Only takes an accident or breakdown for motorways to grind to a halt.

 

[al78]

It isn’t like the road network is particularly wonderful when there’s events either. Only takes an accident or breakdown for motorways to grind to a halt.

The road network does have the advantage that a driver can divert around traffic congestion/incidents, and AA Roadwatch or Traffic England gives some clue as to where the traffic hotspots are before you head off. Satnavs are capable of re-routing in real time in the face of severe congestion. If you are on a train and it grinds to a halt you are stuck there.

 

[Bald Rick]

It isn’t like the road network is particularly wonderful when there’s events either. Only takes an accident or breakdown for motorways to grind to a halt.

or concerts at Knebworth, to use one very recent example local to both of us. The roads around it yesterday were packed; people had parked in all sorts of interesting places!

 

[Mike Machin]

The reliance of railways is so great in the UK that it is usually the only form of public transport in many rural places, where rural buses have largely become non-existent after deregulation. Unlike in Hong Kong where buses are always a backup option when the railway fails, if the railway fails here we are basically doomed that we can go nowhere.

I can't see the railway being irrelevant unless there are minibuses serving every village.

But, only 3% of journeys within the UK are made by rail. I live in a rural area, and my last train service departed in 1956. With commuting in serious decline, passenger railways are a now a specialist, minority-use niche form of transport.

 

[A0]

or concerts at Knebworth, to use one very recent example local to both of us. The roads around it yesterday were packed; people had parked in all sorts of interesting places!

Part of the problem of that is the A1M is *still* dual carriageway from Welwyn to Stevenage. That road used to routinely clog up at rush hour when I was driving along there 30 years ago......

Herts Police should have put a quasi "operation Stack" in place to allow non Knebworth traffic to keep flowing.

 

[miklcct]

But, only 3% of journeys within the UK are made by rail. I live in a rural area, and my last train service departed in 1956. With commuting in serious decline, passenger railways are a now a specialist, minority-use niche form of transport.

The motor car has always been the main form of transport in rural area since the 1950s. It's uneconomical to serve rural areas using railways.

However, railways remain a very important form of mass transport in all major cities, including London, Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, etc., and also between them.

 

[A0]

The motor car has always been the main form of transport in rural area since the 1950s. It's uneconomical to serve rural areas using railways.

However, railways remain a very important form of mass transport in all major cities, including London, Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, etc., and also between them.

*Mass* transport being the key point - so running half full trains isn't viable and is the reason why many of the crayonings for reopening should never and will never happen.

 

[bramling]

or concerts at Knebworth, to use one very recent example local to both of us. The roads around it yesterday were packed; people had parked in all sorts of interesting places!

Yes it’s been causing utter chaos quite widely.

I had to give it a wide berth this morning, which I successfully managed to do, but hardly happy at having to mess around at 0400 on a Sunday morning when one reasonably expects a hassle-free journey. I bet the rain didn’t help either, at one point it was biblical, had to correct a few developing skids at times.

 

[asw22]

What I have noticed is that some of the customer focus at Northern can be lacking sometimes (something which has shown on occasion since late 2015).

For example today, my train was cancelled due to "more trains than usual awaiting repair". During the hour that I waited for the next one, the three empty trains in adjacent platforms were left where they were (2 electric and 1 diesel unit, either of which can be used on an electrified line) - surely one of these could have been used as a spare and avoid passenger inconvenience?
I'm wondering how Northern will have enough units to cover a half hourly weekday service when they can't cover the equivalent Sunday hourly version.

 

[A0]

What I have noticed is that some of the customer focus at Northern can be lacking sometimes (something which has shown on occasion since late 2015).

For example today, my train was cancelled due to "more trains than usual awaiting repair". During the hour that I waited for the next one, the three empty trains in adjacent platforms were left where they were (2 electric and 1 diesel unit, either of which can be used on an electrified line) - surely one of these could have been used as a spare and avoid passenger inconvenience?
I'm wondering how Northern will have enough units to cover a half hourly weekday service when they can't cover the equivalent Sunday hourly version.

BIB - those units may have their own rosters later in the day, which taking them for your service could have meant subsequent cancellations ?

It also assumes that the crew for your service are trained on those - for example if your service was usually run using a Class 323 - there's no guarantee a Class 331 or 195 or 15x are cleared for the route, nor that the driver / guard have been trained on those.

 

[mrmartin]

The article is interesting as it assumes the railway is not already irrelevant to most of the population!

So I think those of us who are involved with the railway in some way (employees/regular travellers/enthusiasts etc) are somewhat inward looking as we look at the railway and see that it is busy. Official statistics show that pre covid only 2% of passenger journeys in Great Britain were made by train. The vast majority of those were in or to/from London (lets not forget that London Underground itself carries a similar number of passengers as the whole of the rest of the UKs railways combined). So for most people the railway is about as relevant as space travel and the only place in the country where it has some real importance is London.

Going forwards there is a real threat that the railway may become even more irrelevant. At some point possibly in the near future autonomous electric road vehicles will become fairly common. When that happens the cost of using taxis/private hire road vehicles via a ride hailing app will plummet. Currently the cost of using taxis and private hire vehicles is fairly high. The two big costs are the driver who has to be paid and the fuel. No driver to pay in an autonomous vehicle and EVs have much lower fuel costs. So the journey costs are likely to fall to about 10% of the current charges. That will make this option cheaper than most public transport options (and probably cheaper than using your own car) for the vast majority of journeys. It will also be much more convenient. When that happens the railway could well be seen as a quaint anachronism outside of large urban areas and ridership could plummet.

Perhaps these comments should be in the other thread about industrial action!

I don't disagree with your hypothesis but this would cause absolutely insane traffic congestion if it were to happen. If anything it could make the train more appealing; sure your fare might be 10% but it might take 8 hours to go down the M4 into London with this. I imagine also some level of road pricing would have to be introduced to cope with this.

 

[43066]

What I have noticed is that some of the customer focus at Northern can be lacking sometimes (something which has shown on occasion since late 2015).

For example today, my train was cancelled due to "more trains than usual awaiting repair". During the hour that I waited for the next one, the three empty trains in adjacent platforms were left where they were (2 electric and 1 diesel unit, either of which can be used on an electrified line) - surely one of these could have been used as a spare and avoid passenger inconvenience?
I'm wondering how Northern will have enough units to cover a half hourly weekday service when they can't cover the equivalent Sunday hourly version.

There might well be good operational reasons why those units weren’t available. Off the top of my head the list might include: units needed on other diagrams; technical fault awaiting attention; units out of mileage awaiting exam; no crew who sign the routes/traction.

It isn’t possible to simply produce a route and traction competent crew out of thin air and then have them take the nearest empty train into service.

 

[niggill617@gma]

There might well be good operational reasons why those units weren’t available. Off the top of my head the list might include: units needed on other diagrams; technical fault awaiting attention; units out of mileage awaiting exam; no crew who sign the routes/traction.

It isn’t possible to simply produce a route and traction competent crew out of thin air and then have them take the nearest empty train into service.

The spare crew probably went home after 6 hours.

 

[Robert Ambler]

or concerts at Knebworth, to use one very recent example local to both of us. The roads around it yesterday were packed; people had parked in all sorts of interesting places!

Wasn't helped by quite a few train service cancellations and then trespass incidents on both Friday (Huntingdon) and Saturday (Potters Bar) which bought the southern end of the ECML to a standstill for a while both evenings. Think quite a few who might have used the train opted to drive as a result

 

[Failed Unit]

Wasn't helped by quite a few train service cancellations and then trespass incidents on both Friday (Huntingdon) and Saturday (Potters Bar) which bought the southern end of the ECML to a standstill for a while both evenings. Think quite a few who might have used the train opted to drive as a result

The planning wasn't the best on that weekend with "Slam Dunk" at Hatfield the same weekend, both road (A1) and rail suffered. I feel rail got the majority of the negative publicity.

One thing that I find interesting is they tend to keep trains to their diagrams. For example Moorgate - Welwyn Garden City is about every 30 mins on a Saturday. Some trains arrived 2h+ late, their return service did the same. I know they probably have good reasons but they don't seem to cancel the 1405 and run the 1605 on time. (rather then run the 1405 2 hours late and cancel the 1605).

 

[InOban]

I don't disagree with your hypothesis but this would cause absolutely insane traffic congestion if it were to happen. If anything it could make the train more appealing; sure your fare might be 10% but it might take 8 hours to go down the M4 into London with this. I imagine also some level of road pricing would have to be introduced to cope with this.

The figure of 2% refers to all journeys. If you restrict it to journeys over, say 50 km, then the railway share is higher. Much higher.

 

[Craig1122]

Doesn't quite match with the apocalyptic predictions by some in this thread. This is with many timetables still cut and (as pointed out in other threads) various resourcing problems around signallers, stock and train crew. Demand is to an extent in different places and different times but imagine what this figure might be were a full pre covid service operating.

"In the week beginning 16 May, every day saw passenger numbers at between 86% and 92% of pre-Covid levels."

Establishing a secure connection ...

 

[AlterEgo]

Doesn't quite match with the apocalyptic predictions by some in this thread. This is with many timetables still cut and (as pointed out in other threads) various resourcing problems around signallers, stock and train crew. Demand is to an extent in different places and different times but imagine what this figure might be were a full pre covid service operating.

"In the week beginning 16 May, every day saw passenger numbers at between 86% and 92% of pre-Covid levels."

Establishing a secure connection ...

Any news on revenues?

 

[Craig1122]

Any news on revenues?

Not that I've seen covering the same period. I do think the two should be published together.

 

[Watershed]

Any news on revenues?

Everything I've heard has indicated they're around 5% behind. Which isn't bad, all things considered - although with two fares rises having happened in the meantime (plus a hefty dose of inflation), it means that 'true' revenue is rather further behind than that.

 

[Failed Unit]

Doesn't quite match with the apocalyptic predictions by some in this thread. This is with many timetables still cut and (as pointed out in other threads) various resourcing problems around signallers, stock and train crew. Demand is to an extent in different places and different times but imagine what this figure might be were a full pre covid service operating.

"In the week beginning 16 May, every day saw passenger numbers at between 86% and 92% of pre-Covid levels."

Establishing a secure connection ...

I think this is very good considering we some areas still have large gaps in their timetable.

 

[43066]

Everything I've heard has indicated they're around 5% behind. Which isn't bad, all things considered - although with two fares rises having happened in the meantime (plus a hefty dose of inflation), it means that 'true' revenue is rather further behind than that.

Indeed. The excellent recovery indicated by the figures merely confirms what has long been obvious to those of us at the sharp end and certainly exposes the “passengers will never come back” doom mongering of the past couple of years as utter nonsense. Of course those statements usually emanate from those with a particular axe to grind. Things are looking up: there’s every reason to suppose both the 2019 usage and revenue figures will be surpassed in fairly short order.

The great shame of the situation is that those figures could be better still if it wasn’t for swathes of the network (in Northern and TPE land) being held back by DfT intransigence in not allowing RDW deals to be renewed, thus preventing a more complete (and reliable) timetable from being operated.

 

[gazzaa2]

Indeed. The excellent recovery indicated by the figures merely confirms what has long been obvious to those of us at the sharp end and certainly exposes the “passengers will never come back” doom mongering of the past couple of years as utter nonsense. Of course those statements usually emanate from those with a particular axe to grind. Things are looking up: there’s every reason to suppose both the 2019 usage and revenue figures will be surpassed in fairly short order.

The great shame of the situation is that those figures could be better still if it wasn’t for swathes of the network (in Northern and TPE land) being held back by DfT intransigence in not allowing RDW deals to be renewed, thus preventing a more complete (and reliable) timetable from being operated.

Leisure travel is through the roof and people are returning to work etc.

Only blot is home working/hybrid working reduces the previous sky high demand for rush hour trains. But then cattle trucks into the office Monday-Friday, for a 3 hour round trip, on 6 thousand pound a year season tickets, or whatever, were never good for the passenger anyway. That is why people are eager to work from home and it makes for a more comfortable journey for those that can't, if they can get a seat on a train in the morning, or at least a bit of space.

Crush loaded trains were never something to celebrate and this is where we are at weekends now, more than 8am on a Monday morning, for example.

 

[HSTEd]

Crush loaded trains were what was paying for all this! At least in terms of money not provided by the state as subsidy.

 

[gazzaa2]

Crush loaded trains were what was paying for all this! At least in terms of money not provided by the state as subsidy.

But if the railway needs to force hordes of people into cattle trucks every morning and evening to be viable, and charge the customer an arm and a leg for the pleasure, then it's not really a good system. As proven by how many are desperate to work from home now, or drive, to avoid it. It's also a consequence of centralisation, particularly around London. If the wealth and jobs, and investment in railways, had been spread more around the country properly it might be different.

Imagine if all the airlines crammed hundreds of passengers onto 'crush loaded planes' and told the passenger it's the only way they can make money, like it or lump it.