Class 377/5 cascade to Southern

[JonathanH]

Weekend ridership over 100%, weekday ridership 80%.

Which one of those dictates the fleet size? 100% demand at the weekend doesn't require a larger fleet than 80% ridership on weekdays.

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder this is an updates thread; if anyone would like to speculate please create a new thread in the relevant forum section. Thanks

 

[physics34]

Which one of those dictates the fleet size? 100% demand at the weekend doesn't require a larger fleet than 80% ridership on weekdays.

True but 80% still means many services packed....if u take into account the reduced capacity.

More 377/5s required.
(Last line there to keep Admin happy )

 

[Park47515]

The update is simple. It's not happening.

 

[CFRAIL]

Im STILL confident the 379s will be involved in some kind of cascade maybe also involving the rest of the 377/5s. Southern will soon be 'desperate' for more stock. Depots have the space, even if they dont have the drivers. Weekend ridership over 100%, weekday ridership 80%. Bloody politics. Another alternative is to scrap the lightly loaded GX and have those 387s used more economically.

How about reduce the GX frequency to release some 387's?

Surely Southern will need more 377's as post covid demand returns?

 

[JonathanH]

Surely Southern will need more 377's as post covid demand returns?

There is no evidence that demand is increasing. It has increased to a fairly stable level - see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/saturdays-on-the-railway-in-general.239434/page-10#post-5953014

I'm not really sure what this thread is adding. Post 1 was simply a post saying that, as a driver, the OP was looking forward to driving Class 377/5s, because they are like 377/4s and they have a fond memory of 377/5s. The rest of the thread is repeated speculation from other threads about something that isn't confirmed to be happening yet. Post 34 goes as far to say it isn't happening at all.

 

[Southern Dvr]

There is no evidence that demand is increasing. It has increased to a fairly stable level - see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/saturdays-on-the-railway-in-general.239434/page-10#post-5953014

I'm not really sure what this thread is adding. Post 1 was simply a post saying that, as a driver, the OP was looking forward to driving Class 377/5s, because they are like 377/4s and they have a fond memory of 377/5s. The rest of the thread is repeated speculation from other threads about something that isn't confirmed to be happening yet. Post 34 goes as far to say it isn't happening at all.

All the evidence I need is what I see every day with my eyes when I arrive into platforms and see them full.

 

[PGAT]

Wether or not demand is increasing is debatable. What isn’t debatable is that Southern aren’t running enough services as they need to be. Southeastern are providing 4tph off-peak services which are 10 coaches and 12 in the peak for loads of stations that didn’t even reach 1 million annual passengers before covid. Meanwhile Southern are giving most busy stations the short end of the stick.

 

[Southern Dvr]

We can debate it if you want. I’m sitting up front, I see how many people are packing into short trains. I’m seeing the large gaps in service. I regularity when not on driving duties travel to meetings on the trains and again see how busy they are. Until recently Monday and Friday were noticeably quieter but not any more.

Another point that I’ve not seen mentioned. When we entered 2022 we still have covid and Covid restrictions. I would be sure this caused a dent in season ticket revenue around December when most people would renew just before the price hike. So I wonder if the DfT hadn’t destroyed the railways this year, would we have seen revenue increase as apparently covid isn’t a thing anymore?

 

[Busman]

All the evidence I need is what I see every day with my eyes when I arrive into platforms and see them full.

Agreed and as a passenger as well. I cannot bear reading the same old nonsense about 'Covid levels are not at the same levels', well, they are as good as dammit.

So yet again, we'll wait around for it to get to capacity levels again - and it will - before any action is taken and by then, as usual, it'll be too late and they will all be scratching their backsides working out stock movements, replacement stock etc.

 

[ScotGG]

There is no evidence that demand is increasing. It has increased to a fairly stable level - see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/saturdays-on-the-railway-in-general.239434/page-10#post-5953014

I'm not really sure what this thread is adding. Post 1 was simply a post saying that, as a driver, the OP was looking forward to driving Class 377/5s, because they are like 377/4s and they have a fond memory of 377/5s. The rest of the thread is repeated speculation from other threads about something that isn't confirmed to be happening yet. Post 34 goes as far to say it isn't happening at all.

Demand will naturally increase in some areas as a result of population rises.

Take one example: South Bermondsey. Thousands of homes either being built or approved within walking distance.

That rises demand even if everything else remained stable. Migration to the UK is at 500k a year.

As for Southern levels of reductions with Southeastern not seeing as severe a level, the plan seems to be to cut Southeastern rather than elevate Southern. Sod the wider economic damage.

 

[Southern Dvr]

Agreed and as a passenger as well. I cannot bear reading the same old nonsense about 'Covid levels are not at the same levels', well, they are as good as dammit.

So yet again, we'll wait around for it to get to capacity levels again - and it will - before any action is taken and by then, as usual, it'll be too late and they will all be scratching their backsides working out stock movements, replacement stock etc.

I don’t agree with the last bit.

The Tory government will either get the reforms it wants or put the railways out to pasture. Everyone needs to understand, they do not care about the travelling public because they know the public won’t be voting them in at the next election.

 

[43102EMR]

deleted

 

[DanNCL]

I wouldn’t be so sure about the last part anymore…

I am. The Tories are finished. Even matching the number of seats they won in 1997 would be a success for them.

Unless Labour makes a monumental screw up between now and the next general election, they'll be in power afterwards.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I am. The Tories are finished. Even matching the number of seats they won in 1997 would be a success for them.

Unless Labour makes a monumental screw up between now and the next general election, they'll be in power afterwards.

Dan you know I think your political knowledge is impressive but please don't lets turn another thread about trains into political debates

The update is simple. It's not happening.

Do you want to elaborate on that statement?

 

[WizCastro197]

I wouldn’t be so sure about the last part anymore…

I don’t agree with the last bit.

The Tory government will either get the reforms it wants or put the railways out to pasture. Everyone needs to understand, they do not care about the travelling public because they know the public won’t be voting them in at the next election.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...onservative-party.238681/page-34#post-5962990

This may be good for you.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2022 ==

Wether or not demand is increasing is debatable. What isn’t debatable is that Southern aren’t running enough services as they need to be. Southeastern are providing 4tph off-peak services which are 10 coaches and 12 in the peak for loads of stations that didn’t even reach 1 million annual passengers before covid. Meanwhile Southern are giving most busy stations the short end of the stick.

They've attempted to alleviate this my making more fast train eg. Dorking and Horsham trains, stop at more stations in London which is turn is also not great for those trains, aiding overcrowding in the end which is what was supposed to help. Southern don't have a stock shortage I guess, but they do now seem now to be motivated on saving stock and shortening trains. Hopefully 377/5s will come over here soon to reverse bad mistakes made last year.

 

[43102EMR]

I am. The Tories are finished. Even matching the number of seats they won in 1997 would be a success for them.

Unless Labour makes a monumental screw up between now and the next general election, they'll be in power afterwards.

Apologies I misread - thought it said “would” instead of “won’t”!

 

[Stephen42]

Do you want to elaborate on that statement?

The draft December Carriage Working Notice for Southeastern looks to have the same number of 377s as the current timetable. It doesn't sound like any more class 707s are arriving soon and if they did want to free up 377s doing it as part of the december timetable change seems the most convenient time.

 

[Park47515]

Dan you know I think your political knowledge is impressive but please don't lets turn another thread about trains into political debates

Do you want to elaborate on that statement?

Sure. There's no plan for the 377/5s to leave Southeastern.

 

[WizCastro197]

Sure. There's no plan for the 377/5s to leave Southeastern.

Source?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The draft December Carriage Working Notice for Southeastern looks to have the same number of 377s as the current timetable. It doesn't sound like any more class 707s are arriving soon and if they did want to free up 377s doing it as part of the december timetable change seems the most convenient time.

Until the 701s are sorted they aint coming

 

[WizCastro197]

Sure. There's no plan for the 377/5s to leave Southeastern.

There is, it was just put on hold, although I would like to know where you sourced such information?

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Well. At the moment. I don't see that Southern railway will be getting any more rolling stock. What will happen in the future? I don't know.

 

[WizCastro197]

Well. At the moment. I don't see that Southern railway will be getting any more rolling stock. What will happen in the future? I don't know.

Southern are to receive a few more 387s in addition to the 4 they already have. Although the number transferred won’t fill the void that will be left by 313s and the hole already left by 455s withdrawal.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Southern are to receive a few more 387s in addition to the 4 they already have. Although the number transferred won’t fill the void that will be left by 313s and the hole already left by 455s withdrawal.

Well. Those 387's are going to go to Gatwick Express unless I am wrong. Strange things may happen.

 

[43102EMR]

Well. Those 387's are going to go to Gatwick Express unless I am wrong. Strange things may happen.

Southern use several of the GX 387s on Coastway workings, so whilst they’re technically with GX, they’ll be advertised as “A Southern service using Gatwick Express carriages”

 

[MCR247]

Southern are to receive a few more 387s in addition to the 4 they already have. Although the number transferred won’t fill the void that will be left by 313s and the hole already left by 455s withdrawal.

Where are the 387s coming from?

 

[JonathanH]

Where are the 387s coming from?

There were indications that 3 387s would come from GWR, but they aren't now.
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/debranded-gwr-387s.240296/#post-5959243

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Southern are to receive a few more 387s in addition to the 4 they already have. Although the number transferred won’t fill the void that will be left by 313s and the hole already left by 455s withdrawal.

You’re a big fan of demanding sources, so I assume you yourself have one for this?

 

[JonathanH]

You’re a big fan of demanding sources, so I assume you yourself have one for this?

I suspect the source was the thread I linked but that thread also indicates that the move fell through, which the OP may not have caught up with.