Not necessarily. There are 9 x 3 car 158s that haven't been converted to 159s. There is also the option to reform 3 x 2 car 158s in to 2 x 3 car 158s with a surplus driving cab in the middle. FGW have done this with some of their 2 car 158s and TPE did it in the past.
9 3-car 158s is a start, but not enough to replace all the 3-car 175s. You'd need to un-convert the ones that became 159s (you wouldn't be needing to take any of the orriginal 159s, with their higher-powered engines, away from SWT though I suppose).
Note that I said I would happily have all ATW's 175s swapped for 158s, provided capacity
and frequency of ATW services is not reduced. I'm not a huge fan of the artifical 3-car 158 tactic, it reduces the number of available units, which might limit service frequency. It is probablly a good idea that FGW have done it for Cardiff-Portsmouth though, although really it could probablly do with being 4-car (2x 2-car 158).
Also it is expected that Scotrail will release some 158s in the next few years as more electrification takes place. This leaves the option of having 3 car 175s replaced by pairs of 158s, as I suggested in the original post.
Would be nice, however that's 32 158s needed to replace all 3-car 175s with 4-car 158s, plus 11 2-car 158s to replace the 2-car 175s. Anyone have 43 class 158s but would rather have the 175 fleet? I doubt it, Scotrail wouldn't need to be given the 175s of course, since the 158s would be released by new EMUs (unless they send 170s to Northern and use 175s on routes like Edinbrough - Aberdeen), but how many 158s will Scotrail free?
By my rough maths, Scotrail will free up around fifty DMUs with their electrification (the 170s are the best units, and the 156s are needed on the GSW/WHL because 158s won't fit), so it's not a massive leap to imagine a decent number of 158s heading south, enough to share a few around the various TOCs who already have 158s.
50 158s coming south you say. Sounds good, except we can't really have them all can we? Personally, while 170s are the newest units, I'm not sure they are actually the best for Scotrail. That's because I feel they are more like outer-suburban units than regional express units (and a 158 is, in my opinion, the ultimate regional express unit at the moment) and there is talk on here that Scotrail want to electrify more of their suburban lines. 175s or 158s would I think be a better choice than 170s for Scotrail's long-distance runs. If it can be done I'd say give us Scotrail's 50 cascaded 158s and give them our 175s (perhaps with my suggestion of knocking off cabs on 2-cars so the 175 fleet is a mix of 3 and 4 car units) so that Scotrail can give the likes of Northern some 170s to keep their hands off the large number of ex-Scotrail 158s that we want in Wales.
This is what I think will happen, and should happen.
A bigger fleet of 158s would give ATW more flexibility, as would the ability to "drop" coaches (e.g. only two coaches west of Carmarthen, but four coaches on the busy Swansea/ Cardiff/ Newport section, or maybe splitting at Carmarthen to provide two coaches for Milford Haven and two coaches for Fishguard)
Exactly, the flexibility to split a 4-car train into a pair of 2-car trains (hence giving both destonations a direct service to the other end of the service) is why I'd happily see the back of 175s if (and it's a big if in my opinion) we can be given enough extra 158s to replace them.
Are ATW running 158s to Ebbw Vale at the moment, I'm sure one came in to Cardiff Central from there today. Anyway, ATW probably need more 158s irrespective of other stock in order to double Cambrian services.
I think ATW has a class 150 surplus of at least 1 unit (should be at least 2 surplus 150s once WAG 2 finally gives the 175 back). Hopefully the surplus is bigger than that so these can be used (mainly, hopefully exclusively, on the Maesteg line) to free 3 158s, for hourly Aberystwyth services and a single Swansea District Line diagram (Fishguard/Carmarthen to Cardiff in the morning, back to Fishguard on the current day boat train (releasing a 150 to plug some of the 2-hour gaps in Cheltenham services) and an evening service back to Fishguard) (2 extra 158s needed for Aberystwyth hourly I think, if you don't make any trips 4-car between Holyhead - Shrewsbury and west of Machynlleth).
Getting back on topic, but it could be worse for you if the class 165/166's where moved to ATW after the Great Western line has been electrified
Class 165/166 = outer suburban units. Hopefully all our routes which could perhaps be considered suburban (ValleyLines, including Maesteg, Ebbw Vale and Vale Of Glamorgan, Swansea - Swanline - Cardiff - Cheltenham and Wrexham - Bidston) will also be electrified soon after, and hopefully given 377s to work them. Hence, we would have no need of 165/166 units unless they can be cleared for the Swansea (currently freight-only) ValleyLines I propose since you might not get them electrified from the outset if you opened them.
That's not a bad shout actually, its a shame more 175 carriages can't be ordered. Maybe 172's could be ordered for Arriva or even Voyagers
Nobody should ever be allowed to order any more diesel Voyager family carriges, ever. Far too fuel-thirsty. However, if somebody does the decent thing and electrifies all the current Voyager routes then re-gearing the things to 100mph to save some fuel accelerating to that speed might make a 5-car Voyager on Manchester - Swansea (with a major refurbishment to put in much more legroom, with seats made to line up with the windows and maybe with some more tables thrown in) not be that bad an idea.
Would there be any merit in having an hourly express service from Cardiff - Manchester, and local stopping services Cardiff - Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury - Manchester?
The fast traisn would call only at Abergavenny, Hereford, Ldlow OR Leominster, Shrewsbury, Crewe and Stockport.
It might be possible to fit a couple of through Holyhead trains into the timetable as well.
On electrification of the Marches line, how does this sound?:
- Fast Hourly Swansea/Cardiff - Manchester electric service (similar to today's faster hour)
- All stations hourly Cardiff - Shrewsbury EMU service
- 2-hourly all stations Shrewsbury - Crewe EMU service
- 2-hourly Shresbury - Crewe EMU service calling at Nantwich and Whitchurch (hence giving them a roughly 2-hourly service, instead of two trains in the same hour then none in the other in one direction at the moment)
- Two or three (diesel unless Shrewsbury - Wrexham - Chester and the north Wales coast are also electrified) Holyhead - Cardiff express services each way per day.
One or both of the Shrewsbury - Crewe services could be extension of the Cardiff - Shrewsbury if it works out nicely, but the split might be useful to keep a fairly even spacing despite the difference in journey times with the fasts.
Would it be advantageous to reform the 175s into 2 coach and four coach trains and aim to double up on busier sections 2x2 carriage and have the potential of 2, 4 or 6 carriage trains splitting at cardiff, ie have a four coach train on manchester to milford made of 2x2 or even 4+2 splitting at Cardiff to reinforce the core of the route between Manchester and Cardiff. Also on Manchester to Llandudno you could then have a steady 4 coaches all day. With 158s moved from Scot Rail after electrification to cover the Holyhead to Cardiff route with joining and splitting as needed.
175s are not a flexible enough design to enable joining and spitting services. In my opinion corridor connections between units are vital to services using multiple units that join and split. If passengers get on the wrong unit then they can walk through into the right one if the units have corridor connections between them. A pair of 175s doesn't have corridor connections between the two units, so joining and splitting services wouldn't work well. That is why I think Wales would be better off with 158s if we can get enough rather than 175s, 158s are so much more flexible.
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