Chris Gibb's HS2 proposal

[Bletchleyite]

In this week's Rail magazine (and also alluded to in this month's Modern Railways) is a proposal by Chris Gibb for an HS2 service pattern involving HS2 stock at 186mph and Pendolinos at 155mph using the line as a mixed traffic route far more like what you might see in Switzerland or Italy. This allows 11 trains per hour to run on HS2 (so the full WCML IC service as at present) without loss of capacity. The Pendolinos would be fully refurbished and get new traction packages, pantographs and I think wheelsets (going from memory). Note I've not quoted the article because I only have it in paper form (I don't subscribe to the digital services of either magazine) and it would take too long to retype the whole thing!

Anyone who does have access to RAIL's digital services can read the article here:

Gibb plans HS2 alternative with 155mph Pendolinos

Former Virgin West Coast manager Chris Gibb is putting forward a radical alternative to the cancelled HS2 route between Birmingham and Manchester, writes Peter Plisner

www.railmagazine.com

Former Virgin West Coast manager Chris Gibb is putting forward a radical alternative to the cancelled HS2 route between Birmingham and Manchester, writes Peter Plisner.

Gibb envisages maximum use of existing assets, including a major refurbishment of the Class 390 Pendolino fleet with a 155mph upgrade.

Gibb was chief operating officer at Virgin West Coast. He has pulled his plan together with the help of his many contacts...

The idea would be that Liverpools would use single HS2 units, as would a Manchester-Birmingham service. Euston-Birmingham would use 400m pairs of units. Euston-Manchester and Euston-Scotland would use 11 car Pendolinos. North Wales would remain classic line using 805s. Nothing was said about other residual classic services. Euston would get two (if I recall correctly) 400m platforms and Manchester could perhaps gain some later to allow those to go to 400m pairs.

This makes a lot of sense to me - indeed it's almost what I was calling for as what HS2 should be - a proper German/Swiss style fill-in Neubaustrecke in preference to something more self contained.

What do others think? The only obvious problem it seems to cause to me is the platform-edge doors at Old Oak.

 

[Thirteen]

No chance they'll go with Pendolinos, there is a reason they're using new rolling stock.

 

[HSTEd]

How much would this Pendolino reconstruction cost?

Is it realistically going to be any cheaper than buying new ones?


At this point, we probably need to work out some way of using the stranded HS2 Phase 1 in some sort of productive manner.

What do others think? The only obvious problem it seems to cause to me is the platform-edge doors at Old Oak.

Well if we just buy new Pendolinos instead that problem goes away.

 

[Sorcerer]

I like the idea of using Pendolinos as a secondary piece of rolling stock for HS2, but I think it would be more value for money to just order New Pendolino stock from Alstom that can run at 300km/h on HS2 and tilt on classic lines below 250km/h similar to Avelia Liberty. Of course running at just 250km/h non-tilt is still sufficient. But refurbishing the 390s specifically and giving them new traction packages, pantographs and wheelsets just seems like more of a hassle than just getting new stock that also meets modern crashworthiness standards.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How much would this Pendolino reconstruction cost?

Is it realistically going to be any cheaper than buying new ones?

I think it'd be worth reading the article to know more if you have access to either RAIL or last month's Modern Railways which had a shorter passage on it. Your local public library may well carry one of the two if you don't wish to purchase a copy.

It's important to note why I didn't post this in Speculative Ideas (though I understand if the mods wish to move it there as it may give rise to speculation: edit, they now have so speculate away!) - it isn't my proposal, it is one by a very respected person in the industry and so it will have been made with consideration of costs etc. It did however note that the condition of the Pendolinos is thought to be very good with easily another 20 years in them.

 

[Mag_seven]

This makes a lot of sense to me - indeed it's almost what I was calling for as what HS2 should be - a proper German/Swiss style fill-in Neubaustrecke in preference to something more self contained.

Which is more or less what HS1 is!

 

[HSTEd]

HS2 makes a pretty lousy Neubaustrecke given that it goes out of its way to avoid all the intermediate traffic centres, but I guess we have to deal with what we have!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The point about using Pendolinos on HS2 is that they would tilt on the northern lines and provide faster journey times than the non-tilt HS2 stock.
So a bit slower on HS2 (155mph was quoted) and a bit faster on the classic WCML (125mph).

Pendolinos have just had their mid-life refurb and should be good for another couple of decades use.
The rebuild looks fairly major though with most of the power train replaced, and it will all need re-certifying for both high speed and NR routes.
New Pendolinos are a problem because they would need a new TASS, which Alstom say they don't want to rewrite.
The solution would also reduce, or at least delay, the order for new HS2 trains which won't help Derby or Newton Aycliffe.
It may save money in an area the politics doesn't support.

Chris Gibb knows what he is doing, having had both WCML operator and route management experience.
He's up against some intransigent "world class" boffins on HS2 however, if they are still around after the Sunak butchery.

 

[Sorcerer]

New Pendolinos are a problem because they would need a new TASS, which Alstom say they don't want to rewrite.

Why would they need a new TASS? What is it about the old system that isn't compatible with potentially newer stock? All things considered I don't think manufacturers will ever consider tilting technology because the 397/805/807 stock is all being built without tilting technology to run on the current WCML as it is now, so I doubt they will ever return when HS2 reduces the number of curves with significantly greater speed. I understand Chris Gibb isn't a random railway enthusiast with pipe dream ideas, but railway expertise doesn't seem to be of much value to our current governments.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Pendolinos at 155mph

Why not at a higher speed like 186mph on HS2?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why not at a higher speed like 186mph on HS2?

Because the design speed of Class 390 Pendolinos is 155mph.

 

[cinders&ashes]

In this week's Rail magazine (and also alluded to in this month's Modern Railways) is a proposal by Chris Gibb for an HS2 service pattern involving HS2 stock at 186mph and Pendolinos at 155mph using the line as a mixed traffic route far more like what you might see in Switzerland or Italy. This allows 11 trains per hour to run on HS2 (so the full WCML IC service as at present) without loss of capacity. The Pendolinos would be fully refurbished and get new traction packages, pantographs and I think wheelsets (going from memory). Note I've not quoted the article because I only have it in paper form (I don't subscribe to the digital services of either magazine) and it would take too long to retype the whole thing!

Anyone who does have access to RAIL's digital services can read the article here:

Gibb plans HS2 alternative with 155mph Pendolinos

Former Virgin West Coast manager Chris Gibb is putting forward a radical alternative to the cancelled HS2 route between Birmingham and Manchester, writes Peter Plisner

www.railmagazine.com

The idea would be that Liverpools would use single HS2 units, as would a Manchester-Birmingham service. Euston-Birmingham would use 400m pairs of units. Euston-Manchester and Euston-Scotland would use 11 car Pendolinos. North Wales would remain classic line using 805s. Nothing was said about other residual classic services. Euston would get two (if I recall correctly) 400m platforms and Manchester could perhaps gain some later to allow those to go to 400m pairs.

This makes a lot of sense to me - indeed it's almost what I was calling for as what HS2 should be - a proper German/Swiss style fill-in Neubaustrecke in preference to something more self contained.

What do others think? The only obvious problem it seems to cause to me is the platform-edge doors at Old Oak.

Here's what might be the same article on modernrailways.com - although no mention of N.Wales in that. Would've thought direct Pendolino service from Euston would make sense once electrified.
https://www.modernrailways.com/article/hs2-white-elephant-red-arrow

A lot will also depend on what this alternative to HS2 phase 2 looks like, in terms of whether it goes via Crewe and what speed it's rated at (if a new line).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Here's what might be the same article on modernrailways.com - although no mention of N.Wales in that. Would've thought direct Pendolino service from Euston would make sense once electrified.

I agree North Wales would go onto HS2 post electrification, but the rule for HS2 does seem to be "absolutely no diesel" possibly due to risk assessments for the long tunnel. You might note indeed that the list of services above is only 10 but there are 11 paths...

 

[Trainbike46]

Here's what might be the same article on modernrailways.com - although no mention of N.Wales in that. Would've thought direct Pendolino service from Euston would make sense once electrified.
https://www.modernrailways.com/article/hs2-white-elephant-red-arrow

A lot will also depend on what this alternative to HS2 phase 2 looks like, in terms of whether it goes via Crewe and what speed it's rated at (if a new line).

I suspect Chris doesn't believe North Wales will actually get electrified - given it's only been promised by this government fairly recently, design work doesn't appear to have started, and the current government won't be in power beyon the start of July, I would suspect that it is unlikely to see wires anytime soon

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 May 2024 ==

Regarding HS2 beyond phase 1 - phase 2A should just be reinstated as-is, it wasn't that expensive in the grand scheme of things, adds a lot of extra capacity by avoiding pinch-points, and assuming Crewe gets included, will allow for splitting/joining there, further increasing capacity

 

[cinders&ashes]

The point about using Pendolinos on HS2 is that they would tilt on the northern lines and provide faster journey times than the non-tilt HS2 stock.
So a bit slower on HS2 (155mph was quoted) and a bit faster on the classic WCML (125mph).

Pendolinos have just had their mid-life refurb and should be good for another couple of decades use.
The rebuild looks fairly major though with most of the power train replaced, and it will all need re-certifying for both high speed and NR routes.
New Pendolinos are a problem because they would need a new TASS, which Alstom say they don't want to rewrite.
The solution would also reduce, or at least delay, the order for new HS2 trains which won't help Derby or Newton Aycliffe.
It may save money in an area the politics doesn't support.

Chris Gibb knows what he is doing, having had both WCML operator and route management experience.
He's up against some intransigent "world class" boffins on HS2 however, if they are still around after the Sunak butchery.

From the link I shared, suggestion is that, with ETCS, Pendolinos could achieve >125mph on the WCML northern section, presumably 140mph. Depending on what the Andys' HS2 Phase 2 replacement looks like, there could be a replacement line, which might be capable of supporting 155mph should upgraded/replaced Pendolinos be used on it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 May 2024 ==

I suspect Chris doesn't believe North Wales will actually get electrified - given it's only been promised by this government fairly recently, design work doesn't appear to have started, and the current government won't be in power beyon the start of July, I would suspect that it is unlikely to see wires anytime soon

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 May 2024 ==

Regarding HS2 beyond phase 1 - phase 2A should just be reinstated as-is, it wasn't that expensive in the grand scheme of things, adds a lot of extra capacity by avoiding pinch-points, and assuming Crewe gets included, will allow for splitting/joining there, further increasing capacity

Totally agree 2a makes sense - which is why we'll likely not see it happen £1bn already sunk into it and £1bn for upgraded Handsacre work means little is saved from binning 2a.
But likely we will count ourselves lucky to get the middle Andys option - a couple of diversions added to the WCML and pain points fixed.

As for N. Wales, Labour are promising a rolling programme of electrification rather than the piecemeal approach seen of late, don't think that will involve binning N.Wales electrification. The speed improvement that provides will offset some of that lost in HS2 phase 2 cancellation.

 

[Trainbike46]

From the link I shared, suggestion is that, with ETCS, Pendolinos could achieve >125mph on the WCML northern section, presumably 140mph. Depending on what the Andys' HS2 Phase 2 replacement looks like, there could be a replacement line, which might be capable of supporting 155mph should upgraded/replaced Pendolinos be used on it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 May 2024 ==


Totally agree 2a makes sense - which is why we'll likely not see it happen £1bn already sunk into it and £1bn for upgraded Handsacre work means little is saved from binning 2a.
But likely we will count ourselves lucky to get the middle Andys option - a couple of diversions added to the WCML and pain points fixed.

As for N. Wales, Labour are promising a rolling programme of electrification rather than the piecemeal approach seen of late, don't think that will involve binning N.Wales electrification. The speed improvement that provides will offset some of that lost in HS2 phase 2 cancellation.

do you have a link to labour promising a rolling programme of electrification? it doesn't appear to have made it into "Getting Britain Moving" - all they say is that there is a shortage of staff and skills for electrification, and:

It will also create a stable foundation for
innovation and problem-solving; allowing,
for example, electrification to be delivered
efficiently in due course and for investors
to understand the long-term outlook for
the industry.

Which very charitably could be interpreted as such a thing maybe, but it feels to fluffy and unclear.

On top of that, depending on how they prioritise lines North wales may be very far down the list - and it's not as if you can really cancel a project that hasn't really started yet!

 

[cinders&ashes]

do you have a link to labour promising a rolling programme of electrification? it doesn't appear to have made it into "Getting Britain Moving" - all they say is that there is a shortage of staff and skills for electrification, and:

Sorry I don't. Am certain I read that in numerous places prior to "Getting Britain Moving" but now the only places are either 3+ yr old or from think tanks and pressure groups.
Unless Starmer reinstates some of HS2 I don't see him offering less on rail infra than we have in the pipeline right now, hopefully the manifesto will be clearer than "Getting Britain Moving".

 

[HSTEd]

Sorry I don't. Am certain I read that in numerous places prior to "Getting Britain Moving" but now the only places are either 3+ yr old or from think tanks and pressure groups.
Unless Starmer reinstates some of HS2 I don't see him offering less on rail infra than we have in the pipeline right now, hopefully the manifesto will be clearer than "Getting Britain Moving".

How much do we actually have in the rail infrastructure pipeline?

Once HS2 Phase 1 completes I am not aware of any other major projects actually in the pipeline, and given the budgetary issues I doubt we will get much at all.

And I am not holding out much hope for the manifesto to be anything other than vague generalisations.
If they had any actual policy substance they probably would have released it by now!

 

[HS2isgood]

About services to North Wales, hauled Pendolinos could return.

 

[Bletchleyite]

About services to North Wales, hauled Pendolinos could return.

No chance I'd say. 805s have been specifically ordered for this. Non-stop to Crewe as they likely will be post HS2, the classic line route isn't too bad.

 

[Trainbike46]

How much do we actually have in the rail infrastructure pipeline?

Once HS2 Phase 1 completes I am not aware of any other major projects actually in the pipeline, and given the budgetary issues I doubt we will get much at all.

And I am not holding out much hope for the manifesto to be anything other than vague generalisations.
If they had any actual policy substance they probably would have released it by now!

Officially NPR is still in the pipeline! The last I heard is that it was continuing and definitely wasn't cancelled ( when Sunak cancelled HS2 phase 2)

There some smaller electrification and reopening projects as well

 

[BogiePicker]

How much life do we reckon is left in the Pendos?

 

[cinders&ashes]

How much do we actually have in the rail infrastructure pipeline?

As well as Wigan-Bolton electrification, Transpennine Route Upgrade, Hope Valley Line upgrade and Midland Mainline Electrification that are underway now, the below are all planned electrification works in the pipeline, mostly from the same Network North announcement as the N.Wales electrification:

• Hull-Leeds line electrification/upgrade
• Hull-Sheffield line electrification/upgrade
• Northern Powerhouse Rail - a mix of new and upgraded/electrified line from Liverpool to Leeds via Bradford and Manchester.
• Leeds-Sheffield line electrification/upgrade
• Hope Valley Line electrification
• Newark-Nottingham line to be upgraded (no mention of electrification, but of reduced journey times)

 

[Bletchleyite]

How much life do we reckon is left in the Pendos?

They're about 20 years old. Typical EMU life is about 40 years. I think we can consider them to be just finishing off their mid life refurb.

 

[The Planner]

The renewals allowing significant speed increases north of Crewe is doing some heavy lifting there.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Because the design speed of Class 390 Pendolinos is 155mph.

But surely the 390s will be most likely too close to life end, as HS2 will most likely be delayed as all major infrastructure work is

 

[Bletchleyite]

But surely the 390s will be most likely too close to life end, as HS2 will most likely be delayed as all major infrastructure work is

Gibb's plan is predicated on Phase 1 opening in about 5 years' time as planned. If it doesn't go as planned then that's another issue.

 

[HSTEd]

As well as Wigan-Bolton electrification, Transpennine Route Upgrade, Hope Valley Line upgrade and Midland Mainline Electrification that are underway now, the below are all planned electrification works in the pipeline, mostly from the same Network North announcement as the N.Wales electrification:

• Hull-Leeds line electrification/upgrade
• Hull-Sheffield line electrification/upgrade
• Northern Powerhouse Rail - a mix of new and upgraded/electrified line from Liverpool to Leeds via Bradford and Manchester.
• Leeds-Sheffield line electrification/upgrade
• Hope Valley Line electrification
• Newark-Nottingham line to be upgraded (no mention of electrification, but of reduced journey times)

Announcements does not mean that any funding has actually been allocated or that the project is committed.

The same project will be re-announced several times before anything actually happens.
It remains rather unlikely that Midland Main Line electrification will make it to Sheffield any time soon.

Most of these projects are extremely small or are almost completed.

 

[Nottingham59]

How much time would an enhanced ETCS Pendolino save compared to HS2 stock from Crewe to Glasgow?

And conversely, how much time would an HS2 train save compared to a 155mph pendolino from Crewe to Euston?

 

[HSTEd]

How much time would an enhanced ETCS Pendolino save compared to HS2 stock from Crewe to Glasgow?

A handful of minutes, probably.

Most of the speed improvements are relatively small, on the order of 10-15mph etc.