Brexit matters

[DC1989]

When's the referendum ?

 

[geoffk]

It looks like we've finally signed on the line to join the CTPP, which the Government has assured us will go a long way in mitigating the impact of losing free access to the EU single market.

UK-Asia trade deal to boost UK economy by 0.08%

The bloc includes nations such as Japan and Australia, but the UK's economy will only get a small boost.

www.bbc.co.uk

I've just seen this. We've not had a referendum on joining this bloc thousands of miles away, have we. And it seems that Parliament hasn't had a vote either, nor was it part of the Tory manifesto. I wonder what the impact will be on the UK's carbon footprint. "Anywhere but Europe" seems to be the trade policy now. (sent before I'd seen DC1989's post).

 

[najaB]

And it seems that Parliament hasn't had a vote either, nor was it part of the Tory manifesto.

Given that the Government's position is that 0.08% is bigger than 12%, I wouldn't be surprised for them to claim that the 2019 General Election was a referendum, or some similar such gaslighting.

 

[class ep-09]

Government did not mention about Trade Dispute Resolution Mechanism , where secret courts outside of UK, behind closed doors, can tell UK government to pay compensation for introducing rules that may minimise profits of big companies .

like rising the minimum wage for example ....



Out of 11 nations that deal is with , UK already had 9 of them .

Also - we accepted their rules without even Parliament having a vote .

Taking back control my ar...se.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've just seen this. We've not had a referendum on joining this bloc thousands of miles away, have we.

Why on Earth would we have a referendum? It's a trade pact. It's not a political/economic union like the EU with its own Parliament and laws etc.

And it seems that Parliament hasn't had a vote either, nor was it part of the Tory manifesto.

Umm, it kinda was. The manifesto didn't explicitly say mention the CTPP, but it did repeatedly refer to signing free trade deals with other countries.

Guaranteeing the full economic benefits of Brexit: Northern Ireland will enjoy the full economic benefits of Brexit including new free trade agreements with the rest of the world.

We will open new markets and support free trade and global growth.

Now, we will be able to tailor our trade deals to the needs of British firms and the British economy

 

[najaB]

Why on Earth would we have a referendum? It's a trade pact. It's not a political/economic union like the EU with its own Parliament and laws etc.

Yet we had a referendum on joining the EC...

 

[SargeNpton]

Yet we had a referendum on joining the EC...

No, we were taken into the EC - and later on had a referendum to see whether we wanted to stay in.

 

[najaB]

No, we were taken into the EC - and later on had a referendum to see whether we wanted to stay in.

Right, thanks for the correction. In any case, our joining was subject to debate in Parliament and the intention to join was a specific manifesto promise of Heath and the Conservatives:

If we can negotiate the right terms, we believe that it would be in the long-term interest of the British people for Britain to join the European Economic Community, and that it would make a major contribution to both the prosperity and the security of our country. The opportunities are immense. Economic growth and a higher standard of living would result from having a larger market.

But we must also recognise the obstacles. There would be short-term disadvantages in Britain going into the European Economic Community which must be weighed against the long-term benefits. Obviously there is a price we would not be prepared to pay. Only when we negotiate will it be possible to determine whether the balance is a fair one, and in the interests of Britain.

Our sole commitment is to negotiate; no more, no less. As the negotiations proceed we will report regularly through Parliament to the country.

1970 Conservative Party Manifesto - CONSERVATIVEMANIFESTO.COM

The full text of all Conservative Party manifestos from 1900 to the present.

www.conservativemanifesto.com

As an aside, the 1970 Conservative manifesto reads as if it was written in 2023 by Labour under Starmer, if you just swap every reference to Labour and the Conservatives.

 

[class ep-09]

Why on Earth would we have a referendum? It's a trade pact. It's not a political/economic union like the EU with its own Parliament and laws etc.

Because UK will be rule taker and we have right to know , what government is putting us in to

Umm, it kinda was. The manifesto didn't explicitly say mention the CTPP, but it did repeatedly refer to signing free trade deals with other countries.

Signing deals with other countries is not this same as signing deals with supranational organisations with its own courts - known as trade dispute resolution mechanism .

 

[cjmillsnun]

It looks like we've finally signed on the line to join the CPTPP, which the Government has assured us will go a long way in mitigating the impact of losing free access to the EU single market.

UK-Asia trade deal to boost UK economy by 0.08%

The bloc includes nations such as Japan and Australia, but the UK's economy will only get a small boost.

www.bbc.co.uk

Hmmm according to the ONS Brexit has a 4% negative on GDP.

0.08% is a drop in the ocean.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Because UK will be rule taker and we have right to know , what government is putting us in to

Did we have a referendum when we joined NATO? What about when we joined the WTO? Or when we joined the UN? Those are all organisations that involved us signing up to rules that are set by treaty or by supranational organisations.

The difference with the EU (Or the EEC back in the 1970s) is of course one of degree. The EU, as it exists today, has its own Parliament, actively makes laws and policies, raises and spends considerable sums of money, and in general has a massively greater impact on day-to-day life and politics in its member states than organisations like NATO or the WTO, as well as control of large swathes of public policy that are therefore out of the control of member Governments. That's why a large proportion of the population and the political establishment felt it appropriate to have a referendum about the EU, but almost no-one would seriously think it was a good idea to have a referendum on our UN membership or our WTO membership. CTPP membership is very clearly much more akin to WTO membership than to EU membership.

I think there are reasons to at least question how useful it is to join the CTPP, but to claim we should have a referendum on it just because we had one for the EU is frankly silly and infantile (unless you're someone who believes in Swiss-style referenda for everything ).

 

[najaB]

Did we have a referendum when we joined NATO? What about when we joined the WTO? Or when we joined the UN? Those are all organisations that involved us signing up to rules that are set by treaty or by supranational organisations.

None of those are good analogues. We didn't join any of them since we were founder members of each.

 

[Sm5]

So does this mean we will get a 0.08% pay rise ?

 

[VauxhallandI]

I just looked up my record and it has my trips from 2015 and 2018, but not in 2000 and 2003.

The note on the website says



The thing is, when I visited in 2015 I had a different passport to the one I used in 2018, so even though I put in my current passport number to retrieve the data, it still records the trip using my previous passport.

It is important to make sure that your exit from the United States is properly recorded, otherwise you could get accused of overstaying your Visa/ESTA.

No record for me yet Ive been twice in the last 5 months.

NB I guess you would need to run the report with your old passport number too if you had changed it.

 

[Fleetmaster]

"Anywhere but Europe" seems to be the trade policy now.

The EU can sign a trade deal with the UK anytime it wants. They don't want to, for reasons that seem to only make it more obvious that Brexit was a good idea.

People can whinge all they want about customs paperwork, the basic fact is, tariff free access to the EU without having to pay the Membership fees, is the steal of the century.

 

[JamesT]

The EU can sign a trade deal with the UK anytime it wants. They don't want to, for reasons that seem to only make it more obvious that Brexit was a good idea.

People can whinge all they want about customs paperwork, the basic fact is, tariff free access to the EU without having to pay the Membership fees, is the steal of the century.

Errm, don't we already have a trade deal with the EU? Called the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed by Boris at the end of 2020.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

People can whinge all they want about customs paperwork, the basic fact is, tariff free access to the EU without having to pay the Membership fees, is the steal of the century.

Not really. You seem to be forgetting that tariff free access to the EU comes with many conditions attached, of which the most obvious one is not being able to put any meaningful controls on immigration from the EU. To the many people in the UK who were very concerned about those conditions, tariff free access to the EU could scarcely be further from 'steal of the century'. It's more correct to say that it was something that had advantages and disadvantages, and it's a judgement call whether you feel the pros outweigh the cons or not.

 

[edwin_m]

The EU can sign a trade deal with the UK anytime it wants. They don't want to, for reasons that seem to only make it more obvious that Brexit was a good idea.

People can whinge all they want about customs paperwork, the basic fact is, tariff free access to the EU without having to pay the Membership fees, is the steal of the century.

Not really. You seem to be forgetting that tariff free access to the EU comes with many conditions attached, of which the most obvious one is not being able to put any meaningful controls on immigration from the EU. To the many people in the UK who were very concerned about those conditions, tariff free access to the EU could scarcely be further from 'steal of the century'. It's more correct to say that it was something that had advantages and disadvantages, and it's a judgement call whether you feel the pros outweigh the cons or not.

The previous poster appears to be referring to the deal we have now, which has tariff free access but with many strings attached. Although the decline in trade and predicted 4% hit to our economy from Brexit suggests that being a member, paying the fees, accepting the conditions and avoiding the paperwork as well as the tariffs is a better bargain. As discussed numerous times, the UK government could have put controls on immigration within the EU if it had wanted to, such as by insisting people can support themselves - and we even had and lost a deal to return "illegal migrants"...

 

[Fleetmaster]

Not really. You seem to be forgetting that tariff free access to the EU comes with many conditions attached, of which the most obvious one is not being able to put any meaningful controls on immigration from the EU. To the many people in the UK who were very concerned about those conditions, tariff free access to the EU could scarcely be further from 'steal of the century'. It's more correct to say that it was something that had advantages and disadvantages, and it's a judgement call whether you feel the pros outweigh the cons or not.

I think you're mistaking tariff free access (what we have now) with free movement of goods and services (what we had before). The former is free, the latter comes with conditions, namely freedom of movement and a massive membership fee.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2023 ==

Errm, don't we already have a trade deal with the EU? Called the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed by Boris at the end of 2020.

Not really a proper trade deal though is it? More of a quickie divorce, without the benefit of having actually been quick, and still not giving much clarity over what to do with the kids (Northern Ireland) or the money (city of London).

 

[geoffk]

The EU can sign a trade deal with the UK anytime it wants. They don't want to, for reasons that seem to only make it more obvious that Brexit was a good idea.

People can whinge all they want about customs paperwork, the basic fact is, tariff free access to the EU without having to pay the Membership fees, is the steal of the century.

But there are non-tariff barriers aren't there - ask any small business trying to export to the EU (those that haven't given up).

 

[Fleetmaster]

But there are non-tariff barriers aren't there - ask any small business trying to export to the EU (those that haven't given up).

Of course, you mean, ask any small business that exclusively exports/imports to/from EU markets.

I have absolutely no issue with a business going out of business or choosing not to do business if the only thing that made their business profitable was not having to do the paperwork that businesses who trade with non-EU markets have to do as a matter of routine.

They didn't get that benefit for free, it came at a cost, and if they never knew or never cared where or how it was actually being paid by UK plc, then I have even less sympathy if Brexit has torpedoed their business model.

 

[geoffk]

Of course, you mean, ask any small business that exclusively exports/imports to/from EU markets.

I have absolutely no issue with a business going out of business or choosing not to do business if the only thing that made their business profitable was not having to do the paperwork that businesses who trade with non-EU markets have to do as a matter of routine.

They didn't get that benefit for free, it came at a cost, and if they never knew or never cared where or how it was actually being paid by UK plc, then I have even less sympathy if Brexit has torpedoed their business model.

You're obviously a brexiter so arguing with facts is probably a waste of time. The cost of EU membership is dwarfed by the cost of brexit. The ONS estimated that the UK's net contribution to the EU was £11bn in 2018 (or around £3 per head per week, i.e. less than a pint of beer). In contrast, it reported that UK exports of goods to the EU fell by £20bn in 2021, compared with 2018, the last period of stable trade.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think you're mistaking tariff free access (what we have now) with free movement of goods and services (what we had before). The former is free, the latter comes with conditions, namely freedom of movement and a massive membership fee.

Ah fair enough. Yes, I thought you were talking about the pre-Brexit situation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2023 ==

As discussed numerous times, the UK government could have put controls on immigration within the EU if it had wanted to, such as by insisting people can support themselves - and we even had and lost a deal to return "illegal migrants"...

That's why I was careful to use the phrase meaningful controls in my post. Yes, as you say, the UK Government would have been allowed to put some conditions on free movement, but the circumstances for which they could do that were pretty limited. In practice, the UK Government was largely not allowed to impose significant controls on people who had job offers, and could not prevent vast numbers of people - particular from poorer Eastern European countries - from wanting to come here and being willing to undercut UK wages to do that. Therefore, because of EU laws, it was not reasonably legally possible within the EU for the UK to control EU migration sufficiently to keep numbers within the range that the UK Government considered sustainable or desirable. In that situation, saying that we couldn't put meaningful controls on migration seems reasonably accurate in practice.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2023 ==

You're obviously a brexiter so arguing with facts is probably a waste of time.

Wow, are you seriously trying to claim that anyone who supports Brexit is not interested in facts? Because it certainly looks like that is what you're saying.

The cost of EU membership is dwarfed by the cost of brexit. The ONS estimated that the UK's net contribution to the EU was £11bn in 2018 (or around £3 per head per week, i.e. less than a pint of beer). In contrast, it reported that UK exports of goods to the EU fell by £20bn in 2021, compared with 2018, the last period of stable trade.

That's not a reasonable comparison. In the first place, 2021 was not a period of stable trade. There were still Covid lockdowns for much of the year, and although the legal transition period had largely ended, we were still in the period of businesses adjusting to the new environment. And in the second place, exports are not directly comparable with net payments to the EU, and are only indirectly related to the standard of living. And more seriously, you appear to be comparing NET EU payments before Brexit with GROSS exports (rather than exports minus imports).

Having said that, I don't think anyone could deny that, at least in the short term, Brexit has caused at least some net loss to GDP.

 

[geoffk]

They didn't get that benefit for free, it came at a cost, and if they never knew or never cared where or how it was actually being paid by UK plc, then I have even less sympathy if Brexit has torpedoed their business model.

Many businesses had a business model predicated on EU membership because they believed it to be permanent. Even if they wanted to make contingency plans in 2016, they could not have known what plans to make as the impact of leaving the EU was never defined. As an example, Eurostar's business model was based on freedom of movement. British passports now have to be stamped in and out at St. Pancras so that there is a proof you have not exceeded 90 days stay in the Schengen zone and this has led to increased processing time - hence the withdrawal, for the time being, of stops at Ebbsfleet and Ashford as Border Force staff can't be spared. I think there's thread discussing this.

 

[class ep-09]

Wow, are you seriously trying to claim that anyone who supports Brexit is not interested in facts? Because it certainly looks like that is what you're saying.

If you call brexit drunken fantasies facts …

And indeed ,hard core brexit supporters are not interested in facts .

 

[GusB]

I have absolutely no issue with a business going out of business or choosing not to do business if the only thing that made their business profitable was not having to do the paperwork that businesses who trade with non-EU markets have to do as a matter of routine.

I find this point of view rather disgusting, to be honest. Less paperwork is surely a good thing, no matter which part of the world you want to trade with.

Effectively, you're saying that you're happy to see jobs lost in the name of your silly ideology.

 

[Fleetmaster]

I find this point of view rather disgusting, to be honest. Less paperwork is surely a good thing, no matter which part of the world you want to trade with.

Effective, you're saying that you're happy to see jobs lost in the name of your silly ideology.

What is remotely odd about that? Last I checked, even the EU still just about stood by the ideology that businesses who can't cover their full and complete costs should not be allowed to carry on trading. It's called capitalism. Disgusting perhaps, but proven to be better better any of the alternatives thus far.

 

[najaB]

Wow, are you seriously trying to claim that anyone who supports Brexit is not interested in facts? Because it certainly looks like that is what you're saying.

There is a difference between someone who has a well thought out rationale for being in favour of the decision to leave the EU and being a Brexiteer

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Apr 2023 ==

Even if they wanted to make contingency plans in 2016, they could not have known what plans to make as the impact of leaving the EU was never defined.

To be fair, they still can't make any plans in 2023, since we still don't know what laws and regulations are going on the bonfire next year.

 

[class ep-09]

There is a difference between someone who has a well thought out rationale for being in favour of the decision to leave the EU and being a Brexiteer

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Apr 2023 ==


To be fair, they still can't make any plans in 2023, since we still don't know what laws and regulations are going on the bonfire next year.

Exactly that , and in 2026 agreement with the EU is to be renegotiated .

 

[GusB]

What is remotely odd about that? Last I checked, even the EU still just about stood by the ideology that businesses who can't cover their full and complete costs should not be allowed to carry on trading. It's called capitalism. Disgusting perhaps, but proven to be better better any of the alternatives thus far.

Until we left the EU, it wasn't a cost that needed to be taken into account! You can't even accuse businesses of failing to plan properly, because we didn't know what we were getting until the very last minute.