Brexit matters

[RT4038]

There is a labour shortage, but it's nowhere near as severe as it is in the UK. We are almost half a year into there being more job vacancies than jobseekers. This is almost unheard of in any developed economy.

Perhaps you need to correct the BBC, Financial Times, Sky News, etc.

For example:

Job vacancies outpace unemployment for first time

The unemployment rate falls to its lowest level for nearly 50 years between January and March.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't need to; neither you or I made any mention of 'records' , just of the situation of more job vacancies than jobseekers. I realise this may have been before your time, but when this occurred in the UK last, over a period of 20 years from about 1953 to 1973 (roughly), there was an (at the time) unprecedented level of immigration from the colonies/ex-colonies to fill these jobs.

Nowhere in the article does it say when the records began (possibly 1975 'nearly 50 years'), nor do we know that the measure of the records is the same as that 70 years ago.

What goes around, comes around. The country has been in this situation before for much longer than half a year. The position changed when there was an energy price shock. I would predict that the current position re unfilled vacancies will be changing quite soon, due to an energy price shock. The country survived then and will do again. We have had a standard of living bubble that was unsustainable, and an adjustment is coming.

 

[najaB]

I don't need to; neither you or I made any mention of 'records' , just of the situation of more job vacancies than jobseekers.

Ah, okay. You're the "don't spoil my rant with facts" kind of poster. Noted.

I realise this may have been before your time, but when this occurred in the UK last, over a period of 20 years from about 1953 to 1973 (roughly), there was an (at the time) unprecedented level of immigration from the colonies/ex-colonies to fill these jobs.

And there you have scuppered your own argument: there were people available to fill the jobs, they were just in a different part of the Empire. Both of my parents were among those people, and there was no need to fill out loads of paperwork and get a visa - as long as you had a job offer you hopped on a boat (he was lucky enough to have the Army pay for a flight!) and you showed up in London, ready to work.

Kinda like how EU FoM worked, actually.

 

[dosxuk]

Not Brexit, not the French or EU but our own bungling red tape driven foolishness supported by negative political rhetoric.

Surely some mistake?

Brexit meant we returned all the red tape to the Europeans and are only applying common sense to decisions nowadays.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Brexit meant we returned all the red tape to the Europeans and are only applying common sense to decisions nowadays.

Brexit meant *introducing* red tape. Have you spoken to anyone importing or exporting goods recently?

 

[najaB]

Brexit meant *introducing* red tape. Have you spoken to anyone importing or exporting goods recently?

That's "nothing but Remoaner grumbling", or some such rot.

 

[Cloud Strife]

That's "nothing but Remoaner grumbling", or some such rot.

I can give a good example: we used to buy some things from the UK that are used in the construction industry. We don't buy them anymore, because the previous situation where trucks would simply wait in the UK for a backload to PL (or nearby) no longer exists. You used to be able to get a truck from the South East to Poland for little more than the cost of fuel, but these days, prices have gone through the roof. The haulage companies aren't sending trucks into the UK, and the hassle with customs means that it's simply not worth sourcing products in the UK anymore. It hasn't resulted in any gain for the UK, because the trucks that do exist are still on Polish or Lithuanian plates, but there's simply far less of them.

End result? We now source the same thing from a supplier in Spain. I would rather deal with a British company for various reasons (not least language and culture), but there's no way I can justify spending 2-3 times more on delivery when compared to a supplier in Spain or France.

 

[RT4038]

Ah, okay. You're the "don't spoil my rant with facts" kind of poster. Noted.

It would be good if you stuck to the facts, and not put words into mouths, yes. So let's stop trading insults, shall we?

And there you have scuppered your own argument: there were people available to fill the jobs, they were just in a different part of the Empire. Both of my parents were among those people, and there was no need to fill out loads of paperwork and get a visa - as long as you had a job offer you hopped on a boat (he was lucky enough to have the Army pay for a flight!) and you showed up in London, ready to work.

Kinda like how EU FoM worked, actually.

The UK can have as many immigrants to fill jobs that it wants, or doesn't want. Now there is just no right of any foreign nationals (apart from ROI) to work and live here.

What goes around, comes around. When the unlimited wave of immigration occurred in the previous era, there was social unrest and disquiet amongst a proportion of the resident population [as your Parents will well know] and legislation was enacted to regulate the quantity and quality of the immigration. When immigration was uncontrolled again [albeit from a different place] (and the right exercised in any quantity) a similar disquiet grew, but the UK was unable to enact legislation to merely control this, apart from the Armageddon option, one of the factors contributing to Brexit.

As it happens, the UK is probably not going to need much immigration to fill these vacancies, as it appears an economic shock of energy prices is about to hit and will no doubt result in a shrinkage of the job market.

 

[najaB]

As it happens, the UK is probably not going to need much immigration to fill these vacancies, as it appears an economic shock of energy prices is about to hit and will no doubt result in a shrinkage of the job market.

Yay! Recession to the rescue of Brexit.

 

[nlogax]

Yay! Recession to the rescue of Brexit.

Covid and now energy prices and recession are masking whatever the true effects of Brexit are. I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever return to a pre-2020 point where we could make some serious like-for-like judgments on our economy before and after the event. Right now there are so many lukewarm takes from all quarters it's hard to take a serious gauge of anything.

 

[najaB]

Covid and now energy prices and recession are masking whatever the true effects of Brexit are. I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever return to a pre-2020 point where we could make some serious like-for-like judgments on our economy before and after the event. Right now there are so many lukewarm takes from all quarters it's hard to take a serious gauge of anything.

Indeed. The closest approximation we can get a the moment is to compare our economic performance with other 'similar' economies, and that makes grim reading. We're the only major economy where growth hasn't returned to it's pre-pandemic trajectory.

There is, of course, the caveat that similar doesn't mean same.

 

[JamesT]

Indeed. The closest approximation we can get a the moment is to compare our economic performance with other 'similar' economies, and that makes grim reading. We're the only major economy where growth hasn't returned to it's pre-pandemic trajectory.

There is, of course, the caveat that similar doesn't mean same.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/ shows we're slightly above the level we were before the pandemic, unlike Germany and Japan. The forecasts for this year look fairly good against the comparator countries.

 

[najaB]

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/ shows we're slightly above the level we were before the pandemic, unlike Germany and Japan. The forecasts for this year look fairly good against the comparator countries.

I could be reading this wrong, but I take this to be change in GDP growth rate quarter on quarter - which means we will be "doing well" on that measure precisely because our pandemic-related dip was bigger.

Also, they note in the text that:

For example, the UK takes a different approach to others in calculating output in the education and health sectors. This has resulted in the UK’s GDP growth figures being lower in 2020, and higher in 2021 (as this effect unwinds), compared with other G7 economies than they otherwise would have been.

 

[JamesT]

I could be reading this wrong, but I take this to be change in GDP growth rate quarter on quarter - which means we will be "doing well" on that measure precisely because our pandemic-related dip was bigger.

The first graph is labelled Q2 2022 compared with Q4 2019. The text mentions a quarter by quarter dip of 0.1% in Q2 2022, but we're up 0.6% on 2.5 years ago.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That's "nothing but Remoaner grumbling", or some such rot.

Talking of grumbling, it does rather amuse me that we have spent years (decades) complaining about unemployment and the awfulness of people who want to work being unable to find work. Decades with many people - especially on the left - dreaming of a time when we would have full employment and at least as many jobs being advertised as there are people looking for work. Now we have exactly that, and look what happens... everyone's complaining about it!

 

[AM9]

Talking of grumbling, it does rather amuse me that we have spent years (decades) complaining about unemployment and the awfulness of people who want to work being unable to find work. Decades with many people - especially on the left - dreaming of a time when we would have full employment and at least as many jobs being advertised as there are people looking for work. Now we have exactly that, and look what happens... everyone's complaining about it!

Not quite the same. When jobs are short, pay is suppressed, when labour is short, employers whinge about lack of workers and whinge when they have to pay more for them.

 

[RT4038]

Not quite the same. When jobs are short, pay is suppressed, when labour is short, employers whinge about lack of workers and whinge when they have to pay more for them.

That is a bit one sided - when jobs are short the workers whinge about the lack of jobs and whinge about the pay being suppressed; when labour is short, employers whinge about lack of workers and whinge when they have to pay more for them.
In summary, there is always someone whingeing.

 

[najaB]

In summary, there is always someone whingeing.

Not in a well-managed economy - one where labour supply and demand are closely matched.

 

[RT4038]

Not in a well-managed economy - one where labour supply and demand are closely matched.

Yeah right - like that is going to happen without interventions that will cause whingeing somewhere else. Employers and employees would still be whingeing anyway.

 

[Annetts key]

In summary, there is always someone whingeing.

Welcome to the “United” Kingdom

 

[Sm5]

There is a labour shortage, but it's nowhere near as severe as it is in the UK. We are almost half a year into there being more job vacancies than jobseekers. This is almost unheard of in any developed economy.

i lived in San Francisco in the 1990’s… surprisingly similar to today…
Bill Clinton used almost the exact lines you just said…

May 2000

Clinton proposes H-1B visa increase

The president also suggested other changes related to the foreign worker visas, including an increase in the fees for processing H1-B applications.

www.computerworld.com

California had exceptional inflation, and was suffering power shortages leading to brown outs, and massive price hikes for energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000–01_California_electricity_crisis


Just a few months later, in one night, the bubble burst, the tech companies evapourated (including some very big names).. phd grads were struggling to get jobs delivering Pizza.

March 2001

Understanding the Dotcom Bubble: Causes, Impact, and Lessons

Discover the dotcom bubble's rise and fall, its impact on tech stocks, and key lessons for investors. Learn why it burst and how it shaped the tech market landscape.

www.investopedia.com

precipitated by the Fed raising interest rates 1998 through 2001.. 4% - 6.75%

Of course by 2002, the US economy went so far backwards, it went from $1.25 for £1 to $2 for £1… within a year… the Euro, when first listed in 2000 at 0.83 ahead of its launch achieved parity with the $ for the first time and never fell back until 2022.

Historians looked backwards and concluded the US economy was in recession 6 months before Sept 11th, and the bear market started then. what came was inevitable and predictable, but ignored due to the illusion of confidence at the time. What started as a Tech stock shock in California went on to damage the US economy as a whole.

The UK has been imo a bear market since March 2022, and stocks arent performing, despite the illusion of happy ears over the summer. Energy and Housing will be imo the triggers for us, probably in October, taking Jobs, the £ and Interest rates with it.

ive seen it all before, and in the UK i feel de ja right now, and feel it coming here.

 

[Annetts key]

The “best” economic system that humans can think of, that is what we currently have, has lots of flaws, the biggest being that we know that it’s inevitable that there will be a crash/recession/adjustment call it what you like.

You often hear calls for increased productivity. But mostly, increased productivity comes from developing better tools (via better technology) or better technology enabling products to be manufactured faster or at a lower cost.

No government in a “western” market economy has control of “their” economy. The very same market forces that some right leaning politicians talk about as being beneficial are the very same that can cause market contraction when (not if) the population decides that money is tight.

The U.K. was already in trouble with regards to “our” economy. The latest rise in the so called “price cap” for gas and electricity for domestic users, combined with the existing factors (including the cost of energy to businesses, the lingering effects on world wide trade due to COVID19, and brexit) now will just speed us on our way to much darker times.

Unless a miracle happens and the new PM and the government they form can find answers (that work) to the many problems. I’m not holding my breath…

Yes, the various other factors are making comparisons between where we were before brexit and where were are now difficult, if not impossible. But brexit is definitely having a detrimental effect on small mainland U.K. businesses. And individuals like me. I regularly used to buy components from the E.U. single market area. But not anymore, as difficultly of trading and the price (VAT and “shipping” costs) now is very off putting. The U.K. does not benefit either, because I instead abandon projects.

 

[najaB]

i lived in San Francisco in the 1990’s… surprisingly similar to today…
Bill Clinton used almost the exact lines you just said…

True. But that was largely in one area of the economy - today it's pretty much across the board.

 

[Sm5]

True. But that was largely in one area of the economy - today it's pretty much across the board.

Its still illusionary.

If people stop ordering guff from Amazon, delivery drivers go spare, order pickers go spare, help desk goes spare. The algorithms coded by developers to research your spend go spare, the management using reporting go spare, the legal teams have less contracts go spare, the marketing budget goes, HR systems are less used, then those thousands of workers who buying £5-10 lunch stop spending, meaning less demand for bread, bakers, delivery guys, tomato pickers. The companies making that guff for Amazon are equally hit with all the above, and stock market traders who bet on sales of everything above, banks who value risk on loans to the above, tax receipts etc etc…

Each £1 spent is split into pennies and recombined with other orders and recycled many dozens more times in the economy.

Thats why reducing money supply is fallacy and depends on an economic system of growth / inflation.

If you want to take money out of the system, burn it… wars are a great way for this… once that rocket is launched those £’s to make it are not being recycled any more… theres no after market in destroyed weapons. But it does create a new market for reconstruction later.., leaving space for a recession in between events to rebalance.

 

[Gloster]

If you want to take money out of the system, burn it… wars are a great way for this… once that rocket is launched those £’s to make it are not being recycled any more… theres no after market in second hand destroyed weapons. But it does create a new market for reconstruction later.

Do not suggest this to Liz Truss. However, with the way she is behaving towards other countries, we will quite likely have a war anyway. And then she can say that the opportunity to open hostilities without the EU trying to stop us is another Brexit Bonus.

The worry is that I am only half joking.

 

[najaB]

And then she can say that the opportunity to open hostilities without the EU trying to stop us is another Brexit Bonus.

The worry is that I am only half joking.

I fully expect that the war will be with France.

 

[Sm5]

Do not suggest this to Liz Truss. However, with the way she is behaving towards other countries, we will quite likely have a war anyway. And then she can say that the opportunity to open hostilities without the EU trying to stop us is another Brexit Bonus.

The worry is that I am only half joking.

my fear of her, is speaking first without thinking, and more importantly not listening to her own advisors.

She comes across as a radio transmitter, no recieve, no listen, no discussion.
That to me is extremely Naive.

The Russians exposed her for what she is when they tricked her into discussing what they should do with cities she never heard of inside their own country.

Any half decent foreign minister would be studying history, geography as well as policy in any trip, and at a minimum have someone who understands the script with her, to give a nod, a nay, or defer before operating ones mouth and letting words fall out.

Now a journalist has embarrased her to the French.

Her exact words “judged not by words but actions”.. is a stolen quote from Biden talking about the Taliban… We might not be in best of places for tittle tattle with France currently, but we are a very long way from comparing the French to the Taliban.

it might mean a visit to Macron comes sooner though, and i reckon he’ll sweet charm her in a french way, and if from what ive seen so far, she’ll be unprepared, flustered and pretend to be an informed expert once again… but nothing will ever beat Boris on his ad-lib speech to the CBI when losing his script and starting talking about Peppa Pig… thats global comedy gold for decades.

Do we really elect them, and pay them to rule us ?

 

[AlterEgo]

it might mean a visit to Macron comes sooner though, and i reckon he’ll sweet charm her in a french way

Sir, this is a family forum!

 

[E27007]

Ah, okay. You're the "don't spoil my rant with facts" kind of poster. Noted.

And there you have scuppered your own argument: there were people available to fill the jobs, they were just in a different part of the Empire. Both of my parents were among those people, and there was no need to fill out loads of paperwork and get a visa - as long as you had a job offer you hopped on a boat (he was lucky enough to have the Army pay for a flight!) and you showed up in London, ready to work.

Kinda like how EU FoM worked, actually.

The EU FoM to the UK was wage and unemployment driven, in 2005, wages in Poland/ Romania /Bulgaria etc were a about fifth of the UK, an immigrant could earn in a week , a month of pay in Poland, the destruction of several economies , gave rise to major structural unemployment as high as 50%, within young people in the Southern Mediterranean states, Portugal, Spain in particular , , the UK became the repository for the unemployed of several states.

 

[najaB]

the UK became the repository for the unemployed of several states.

Who only had the right to stay if they found a job here.

 

[TwoYellas]

Who only had the right to stay if they found a job here.

The more the merrier I say. Human beans are human beans and this country has a commendable history of accepting people. All nations have parts of their history to be proud of and other aspects that are shameful.

Must admit it's a source of amusement to watch the hard brexiteer types constantly whinging about them 'comin' over here'. They'll never be happy and if they spent as much time on the real issues facing the world we might actually start getting somewhere in terms of solutions.