One of the key drivers behind freedom of movement was a free market aspiration to emulate the US economy. The idea was that people should move from areas performing badly with high levels of unemployment to those where there was a shortage of labour to drive growth in Europe. It worked extremely well leading to large flows of money from west and north to south and eastern Europe. Margaret Thatcher was a key supporter of the idea along with the single market that it was a major part of. Funny how you don't hear Truss and Sunak speaking out in support of this Thatcherite policy..
This works fine in a country of 50 unified states with similar beliefs and history, mostly speaking one of 2 languages.
it doesnt work as well in 28 countries with 28 languages, on a continent of 2000 years of war, hatred and cultures aimed at getting one over the neighbours.
The winners were new comers to the EU who were prepared to ignore history, learn a new language and relocate, and forget the baggage. Its not worked for education shy, welfare state supported workers who refused to relocate away from government supported comfort zones In the west.
The UK has benefited the language of global business, “American”, which has far more spend power and none of the baggage of history. As an EU member we were the trusted gateway, benefitting a similar US culture and legal system, EU awareness and trust sharing a business language that both the US and EU could use to broker deals. This has benefitted our forex, our services sector, taxation and bringing immigrants cut out inflation and interest rates…weve never had it so good.
Now we are out, Ireland and Holland have taken much of this role. We are neither trusted nor needed by either side and will become like the Icelandics… a local office subsidiary to EU operations of those relocated businesses… its happened, its changing and neither Truss or Sunak can do anything about it, so there is no point talking about it.
The risk thats becoming apparent, is at some point the middle class, now lacking those international earning opportunities, will lose income to a point they cannot support further tax, to support the welfare state thats protected that reluctant lower end for the last decades… what then ?, as just like the weather, the governments money tree is losing its leaves faster than the drought… Those ones with money will relocate, those with talent will speculate and the losing side will be Inflation, interest rates and forex.. none of which the lower class understands, but will bear the brunt the most…
Weve been living in a Covid bounce this summer, people are consuming regardless the price, to compensate two years losees due to Covid. However once those funds are burnt, the credit cards are maxed and winter comes, things will change rapidly overnigh…
I fear end of October things will fare badly for the UK. Its the traditional months the money markets wake up, and set their positions before year end, right now what to they have to be bullish about the UK ?.. declining economy, no choice but to follow US interest rates to preserve forex, to preserve Energy imports and sustain inflation Linked debt repayments, and of course the collapse in balance of trade… the biggest risk to the UK is ability to afford private debt repayments, particularly the housing and unsecured debt markets as we head into an Energy crisis… a failure here could trigger a housing and ergo another banking crisis. The loss of cheap immigrant labour has contributed to inflation and interest rates.
Europe is not sharing our problems. Their economy hasnt changed, their freedom of movement hasnt changed, even their ability to freely sell to the UK hasnt changed… UK inbound tourism hasnt changed… nothings changed apart from energy prices, and their governments are shielding them from it, inflation exists, but is offset by high demand, indeed 6 mn immigrants from Ukraine is benefitting inflation and interest rates, just as it used to with us.
The UK cannot afford its lifestyle post Brexit.. public or private, quite simply we are bleeding cash, at some point a run on the £, revaluation of currency and runaway interest rates maybe on the cards. This triggers loss of confidence, runaway inflation, collapse in jobs and huge loss of personal wealth… This is what is economists call rebalancing the economy, which is somewhat different to the politicians definition. Thats why the BoE predicts 15 months recession.. but before the burndown cometh the crash that causes the fire… the BBC is trying its best to redirect the problem, but the UKs international creditors lenders dont listen to the BBC.