Brexit matters

[radamfi]

There was some good news about reciprocal healthcare. Some non-insurable treatments will be available in the event of a No Deal, for example dialysis and oxygen, initially for a period of one year.

 

[Chester1]

I don't find it amazing at all from Boris and his motley crew as for all these fantastic trade deals so far there pretty much on the same terms as previous EU deals and the majority with smaller countries where we do a limited amount of trade.

FTAs are an example that shifting boundaries is not unique to brexiteers. A couple of years ago anti brexit sections of the media were convinced that the UK would be unable to roll over EU trade deals. It was British / English exceptionalism, brexiteers were too uneducated or thick to understand how international trade works, UK lacked the market size to get same access as the EU....

43% of UK exports will be affected by whether there is a deal or not. 11% will stay on same terms in rolled over trade agreements and 46% is done on WTO terms. My view on brexit was that it was a huge risk and ending up in a similar economic situation that we started in would be an achievement. Therefore I think it is important that the deals have been rolled over. Its removed one source of economic damage.

 

[Dave1987]

As Sadsprinter said, that Tory party has died. The tories have lost the wealthy metropolitan areas of big cities to Libdem/Labour and need to retain places like Blyth to stay in power, where a bonfire of workers rights will go down like a lead balloon.

Ow come off it. The core part of the Tories will be positively salivating over slashing workers rights under the guise of “making Britain more competitive”. I really cannot believe that they will not take full advantage of No Deal with a big majority to take an axe to workers rights. It’s going to be dog eat dog Britain going forward. The Tories are hardly renowned for bringing the nation together are they.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Dec 2020 ==

FTAs are an example that shifting boundaries is not unique to brexiteers. A couple of years ago anti brexit sections of the media were convinced that the UK would be unable to roll over EU trade deals. It was British / English exceptionalism, brexiteers were too uneducated or thick to understand how international trade works, UK lacked the market size to get same access as the EU....

43% of UK exports will be affected by whether there is a deal or not. 11% will stay on same terms in rolled over trade agreements and 46% is done on WTO terms. My view on brexit was that it was a huge risk and ending up in a similar economic situation that we started in would be an achievement. Therefore I think it is important that the deals have been rolled over. Its removed one source of economic damage.

Sorry isn’t Britain supposed to be the all powerful and conquering nation that was being held back by the EU? Isn’t “Global Britain” supposed to be leading the way with new trade deals that the EU couldn’t get? Not clinging on the coattails of the EU begging for similar deals that we already had before? This was sold as “Global Britain” breaking the shackles of the EU “holding us back” and showing how mighty we are. So far I’ve seen none of that. Just a buffoon playing fast and loose with people’s livelihoods.

 

[37424]

FTAs are an example that shifting boundaries is not unique to brexiteers. A couple of years ago anti brexit sections of the media were convinced that the UK would be unable to roll over EU trade deals. It was British / English exceptionalism, brexiteers were too uneducated or thick to understand how international trade works, UK lacked the market size to get same access as the EU....

43% of UK exports will be affected by whether there is a deal or not. 11% will stay on same terms in rolled over trade agreements and 46% is done on WTO terms. My view on brexit was that it was a huge risk and ending up in a similar economic situation that we started in would be an achievement. Therefore I think it is important that the deals have been rolled over. Its removed one source of economic damage.

Well those that have done the analysis seem to suggest that we will loose at least 30 to 40% of EU trade under No Deal obviously some stuff is low or Zero tariff under WTO but that of course doesn't account for companies that simply pack up and leave or go bust because its simply not viable for them in the UK anymore.

That leave's a large amount of business to make up, and your going need some spectacular trade deals to start making that up, obviously the Hard Brexiteers were counting on a US Deal although who's knows what they would have given away to get that besides Chlorinated Chicken, but then of course Biden is imminent. Then you also get the Brexiteers going on about a Canada/Australia/New Zealand axis but the combined population of those is about 68 million and even with us that's hardly a Block on the scale of the EU or the US, added to which of course two are on the other side of the world.

 

[Chester1]

Sorry isn’t Britain supposed to be the all powerful and conquering nation that was being held back by the EU? Isn’t “Global Britain” supposed to be leading the way with new trade deals that the EU couldn’t get? Not clinging on the coattails of the EU begging for similar deals that we already had before? This was sold as “Global Britain” breaking the shackles of the EU “holding us back” and showing how mighty we are. So far I’ve seen none of that. Just a buffoon playing fast and loose with people’s livelihoods.

I wasn't advocating for brexit, just pointing out that trade deals are one area were remainers were very negative and then shifted the goal posts when (surprisingly) the Government has done a good job (in relation to non EU negoiations). Its much smaller than the EU trade situation but had things gone badly, the damage of losing FTAs covering 11% of our trade would have been significant. There are plenty of bullets left for the country to dodge but its not insignificant that one predicted hit from brexit has been avoided.

Well those that have done the analysis seem to suggest that we will loose at least 30 to 40% of EU trade under No Deal obviously some stuff is low or Zero tariff under WTO but that of course doesn't account for companies that simply pack up and leave or go bust because its simply not viable for them in the UK anymore.

That leave's a large amount of business to make up, and your going need some spectacular trade deals to start making that up, obviously the Hard Brexiteers were counting on a US Deal although who's knows what they would have given away to get that besides Chlorinated Chicken, but then of course Biden is imminent. Then you also get the Brexiteers going on about a Canada/Australia/New Zealand axis but the combined population of those is about 68 million and even with us that's hardly a Block on the scale of the EU or the US.

Again, I am not advocating that altering the terms that 43% of our exports won't matter as its clearly massively important. However, its significant for FTAs for countries accounting for 11% to be rolled over and that some of the media and politicians have shifted the goal posts on that.

 

[yorksrob]

I do think that employment rights and environmental standards are an area worth compromising on. Quite apart from being generally sensible, It's hard to see any tsunami of votes arriving from a watering down of either.

 

[21C101]

I do think that employment rights and environmental standards are an area worth compromising on. Quite apart from being generally sensible, It's hard to see any tsunami of votes arriving from a watering down of either.

I think it is the principle of the thing.

Everyone is suggesting the wicked Tories are going to scrap workers rights.

But what happens if we do sign up to dynamic alignment and the EU subsequently has a bonfire of workers rights.

Do we really want to be in a position where a UK government would have to do likewise, with the UK electorate powerless to do anything about it. At least if the Wicked Tories do it they can be voted out next time.

There will certainly be areas where the UK rapidly diverges to higher standards not possible under EU rules, animal welfare and transfer of livestock for evample.

 

[yorksrob]

I think it is the principle of the thing.

Everyone is suggesting the wicked Tories are going to scrap workers rights.

But what happens if we do sign up to dynamic alignment and the EU subsequently has a bonfire of workers rights.

Do we really want to be in a position where a UK government would have to do likewise, with the UK electorate powerless to do anything about it. At least if the Wicked Tories do it they can be voted out next time.

There will certainly be areas where the UK rapidly diverges to higher standards not possible under EU rules, animal welfare and transfer of livestock for evample.

That's an interesting point.

I've always assumed that we were negotiating on minimum standards, rather than linking to potentially varying ones.

I'd certainly hope that we were negotiating above minimums.

 

[21C101]

That's an interesting point.

I've always assumed that we were negotiating on minimum standards, rather than linking to potentially varying ones.

I'd certainly hope that we were negotiating above minimums.

What the EU want is dynamic alignment on level playing field matters. That would mean that if the EU changed their law in the future, we would be obliged to change ours to match despite our government or us having no input into that law.

 

[Chester1]

That's an interesting point.

I've always assumed that we were negotiating on minimum standards, rather than linking to potentially varying ones.

I'd certainly hope that we were negotiating above minimums.

Farming of animals and animal welfare is one area were the consensus of UK politics is always likely to be in favour of higher standards than the EU. We banned Mink farming in 2003 but until the pandemic hit there were 10s of millions of Mink in farms in the EU and until we leave the single market we cannot ban the import of fur. For crops its the other way around. The UK is more likely than the EU to authorise GM crops.

The EU has demanded non regression but that would be not dropping below 31/12/2020. Dynamic alignment could force us to raise the standards in future and have the EU reverse the changes and be left with either copying them or being less competitive. This is particularly relevant to climate change were the EU politics are very messy.

I do think on average that the EU will want higher standards than the UK but its not a clear cut thing and one parliament shouldn't try to bind future ones to copy the EU. The talks seem to have switched to how to manage divergence not prevent it. Barnier talked this week about "rebalancing mechanisms".

Edit: by standards I mean the legal framework of industries. Product standards for incoming goods are different. Both sides would be able to ban import of goods they consider to be sub standard.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes,being attached to a system that can go up or down is obviuosly unsatisfactory.

I think that there's a lot to be said for modelling the agreement on what would be expected with other third party countries, then at least each side knows it's not being unfairly treated.

Aside from that, at least by agreeing minimum standards, both sides know that they can't be forced to accept lower ones.

 

[Chester1]

Yes,being attached to a system that can go up or down is obviuosly unsatisfactory.

I think that there's a lot to be said for modelling the agreement on what would be expected with other third party countries, then at least each side knows it's not being unfairly treated.

Aside from that, at least by agreeing minimum standards, both sides know that they can't be forced to accept lower ones.

Trade negoiations are an absurdly complex topic that the UK media doesn't do justice too. If you want good coverage then I would recommend www.rte.ie or www.politico.eu

I do partly buy the EU argument that the scale of EU - UK trade makes normal measures of management inadequate but their starting position was determined by politics not necessity. US - Canada is directly comparable to EU - UK and shows that dynamic alignment is not required to produce a fair trading environment. A lasting EU - UK FTA needs to stick to conventional dispute resolution mechanisms but ones setup to produce decisions quickly.

I suspect that the experience of negoiating with the EU will have put off many in the Government from relying on a trade deal with the US. The power imbalance means the concessions required will come at too higher political cost. There has been suggestions of an investment and labour mobility agreement next year and that might be a good place to stop. The Govermment's success at rolling over FTAs has shown that its much easier to get agreements with comparable or smaller countries than multinational blocks or superpowers. If we get a deal with the EU, we don't need anything with the US (unless we decide terms offered are satisfactory) and we should avoid any FTA with China while its led by a totalitarian regime. Joining the CPTPP should be our priority next year.

 

[najaB]

There will certainly be areas where the UK rapidly diverges to higher standards not possible under EU rules, animal welfare and transfer of livestock for evample.

Hahaha. Oh, wait - you were serious?

If the UK wanted to implement higher standards then we were perfectly free to do so while in the EU. The fact that we didn't speaks volumes about the direction our standards are likely to take.

 

[Chester1]

Hahaha. Oh, wait - you were serious?

If the UK wanted to implement higher standards then we were perfectly free to do so while in the EU. The fact that we didn't speaks volumes about the direction our standards are likely to take.

Not really. We were free to do so but with no way of preventing British businesses being under cut by cheap imports. If a decent FTA is agreed with the EU that should no longer be the case. Our minimum sizes on animal pens / cages etc are a bit higher than EU average but currently cannot be expanded further without an economic hit. There is momentum behind a cross party effort to ban fur (which single market members cannot do). The consultation on banning export of live animals for slaughter looks like it has been setup to produce a quick result to favour a ban (excluding chickens due to economic importance). Individual EU members cannot ban the export of live animals for slaughter. Culturally the UK is in a different place on animal welfare to much of southern and eastern Europe. There are pragmatic limits on that, especially under Tory Governments but the trend is very much that the UK supports higher standards.

 

[yorksrob]

Trade negoiations are an absurdly complex topic that the UK media doesn't do justice too. If you want good coverage then I would recommend www.rte.ie or www.politico.eu

I do partly buy the EU argument that the scale of EU - UK trade makes normal measures of management inadequate but their starting position was determined by politics not necessity. US - Canada is directly comparable to EU - UK and shows that dynamic alignment is not required to produce a fair trading environment. A lasting EU - UK FTA needs to stick to conventional dispute resolution mechanisms but ones setup to produce decisions quickly.

I suspect that the experience of negoiating with the EU will have put off many in the Government from relying on a trade deal with the US. The power imbalance means the concessions required will come at too higher political cost. There has been suggestions of an investment and labour mobility agreement next year and that might be a good place to stop. The Govermment's success at rolling over FTAs has shown that its much easier to get agreements with comparable or smaller countries than multinational blocks or superpowers. If we get a deal with the EU, we don't need anything with the US (unless we decide terms offered are satisfactory) and we should avoid any FTA with China while its led by a totalitarian regime. Joining the CPTPP should be our priority next year.

Thanks for the recommendations.

It's good that there's an international precendent in terms of Canada/USA. They also have a fairly liberal system of free movement between eachother, which is something that could be mirrored as well.

In terms of the USA, it's already been shown that there is very little to be gained from a new FTA. We should do eachother a favour and try to replicate what we have now. And in terms of communist China, absolutely nothing to be gained from greater involvement.

 

[Chester1]

Thanks for the recommendations.

It's good that there's an international precendent in terms of Canada/USA. They also have a fairly liberal system of free movement between eachother, which is something that could be mirrored as well.

In terms of the USA, it's already been shown that there is very little to be gained from a new FTA. We should do eachother a favour and try to replicate what we have now. And in terms of communist China, absolutely nothing to be gained from greater involvement.

I agree with a normal FTA. The Investment and Mobility agreement being considered is a different matter. It seems to be mimicing the non goods stuff in the Trans Pacific Partnership. The UK will be submitting a membership application early next year but Biden seems reluctant for the US to join in the next 4 years. The UK recently signed a similar deal with Switzerland which allowed high skilled workers to work in the other country for up to 90 days a year without a visa.

 

[alex397]

Well the new rules for most of the South East will certainly be a good distraction for Brexit. It will also help reduce the headlines about it, which the government will probably be relieved about.
I just hope it doesn’t reduce the scrutiny it really needs.

 

[SS4]

Well the new rules for most of the South East will certainly be a good distraction for Brexit. It will also help reduce the headlines about it, which the government will probably be relieved about.
I just hope it doesn’t reduce the scrutiny it really needs.

Almost as though the new rules were by design rather than necessity. There'll be basically no scrutiny over it - any sensible leader would have asked for an extension (and not left the papers for a ventilator scheme lying around) on talks.

Then again it would never have got to that point if they didn't want it to. Article 50 was invoked in January 2018 giving two years of talks yet they've stalled and stalled. This government wants no deal but don't have the balls to admit it so they're going to run down the clock and blame the EU for everything. I mean it's worked for the last 20 years so why not carry on?

 

[37424]

Almost as though the new rules were by design rather than necessity. There'll be basically no scrutiny over it - any sensible leader would have asked for an extension (and not left the papers for a ventilator scheme lying around) on talks.

Then again it would never have got to that point if they didn't want it to. Article 50 was invoked in January 2018 giving two years of talks yet they've stalled and stalled. This government wants no deal but don't have the balls to admit it so they're going to run down the clock and blame the EU for everything. I mean it's worked for the last 20 years so why not carry on?

I think your right and there should be a lot of people very angry about it, but I suspect they won't be because of being overtaken by covid even though the economic consequences for those sectors most affected will last long after covid, and because its gone on so long people have become fatigued and fed up of it, even though I think we are walking into a disaster.

As far as I can work out the main sticking point now appears to be fish with the EU offering some return of quota and a very long transition period to the system the UK wants, which seems reasonable to me, but not apparently to Johnson and co who want a much bigger quota returned immediately and a much shorter transition period, and if they don't get that then it will be no deal.

If that's how it pans out it is the most stupid and ridiculous thing a UK government has ever done in my view, I suspect we also going to end up with virtually a war with French Fishing fleet.

Also if I was a Business that trades with the EU, I would be utterly outraged we are less than 2 weeks away and don't know what terms we will be trading with the EU on.

 

[ainsworth74]

I see Brexit continues to go well and protects the sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom...



(Screenshot from Hermes website stating "Due to new government regulations introduced in January we can long ship parcels from Great Britain to Northern Ireland on this site. Please use international site instead.")

DPD appears to still be shipping to Northern Ireland but the requirements are certainly more significant than you might have expected just a weeks ago:

Northern Ireland​

Preparing your Northern Ireland shipments​

Please ensure any parcels destined for Northern Ireland include the same data as for EU destinations. You will need to supply information for the import declaration which is a requirement of the Northern Ireland Protocol, a fundamental part of the withdrawal agreement.

In summary, you will need to supply the following for your Northern Ireland shipments:

- EORI Number
- Product details and description
- Product values
- Country of Origin
- Commodity codes

DPD (UK) - Northern Ireland

www.dpd.co.uk

Honestly? How is any of this defensible? How on earth does this even begin to appear like the Brexit that was promised by Vote Leave, Boris, Farage, et al.?

 

[nlogax]

Honestly? How is any of this defensible? How on earth does this even begin to appear like the Brexit that was promised by Vote Leave, Boris, Farage, et al.?

Farridge should be put in front of a committee to answer / attempt to defend what this has turned into. He may not be an elected representative for anything anymore but so much of this is down to him.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I see Brexit continues to go well and protects the sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom...

View attachment 87377

(Screenshot from Hermes website stating "Due to new government regulations introduced in January we can long ship parcels from Great Britain to Northern Ireland on this site. Please use international site instead.")

DPD appears to still be shipping to Northern Ireland but the requirements are certainly more significant than you might have expected just a weeks ago:

DPD (UK) - Northern Ireland

www.dpd.co.uk

Honestly? How is any of this defensible? How on earth does this even begin to appear like the Brexit that was promised by Vote Leave, Boris, Farage, et al.?

Terrible. I reckon we would be back in the customs union within 10 years.

 

[Richard Scott]

Boris has proved to be the biggest liability in British politics, he's far too arrogant even by normal politicians standards. So a few fish seem to be a sticking point. How stupid, businesses are saying that they need a deal but this idiot just wants what he wants. The only solace I have is I didn't vote for him as could see him for what he was. He only ever wanted to be Prime minister and he didn't care how he got there and he doesn't care now.

 

[SS4]

Boris has proved to be the biggest liability in British politics, he's far too arrogant even by normal politicians standards. So a few fish seem to be a sticking point. How stupid, businesses are saying that they need a deal but this idiot just wants what he wants. The only solace I have is I didn't vote for him as could see him for what he was. He only ever wanted to be Prime minister and he didn't care how he got there and he doesn't care now.

Less than 50,000 people voted for our PM

 

[Spamcan81]

Boris has proved to be the biggest liability in British politics, he's far too arrogant even by normal politicians standards. So a few fish seem to be a sticking point. How stupid, businesses are saying that they need a deal but this idiot just wants what he wants. The only solace I have is I didn't vote for him as could see him for what he was. He only ever wanted to be Prime minister and he didn't care how he got there and he doesn't care now.

He's playing silly beggars with the negotiations, all designed to cause fluctuations in the market that can be exploited by his hedge fund backers. He doesn't give a fig about the UK fishing industry but with almost everything else agreed, it's a useful stick with which to beat the EU. Anyone who is prepared to trash 99.5% of the UK economy over fishing - which will suffer from a no Deal scenario as 60%+ of the catch is exported to the EU - should be charged with treason.

 

[VauxhallandI]

He knew that it would be a bad time to PM but his narcissism was just too much to resist it. Shows you how much of a loon he is.

I wonder how much the folks that voted for him because he was funny and used big words are laughing now.

 

[alex397]

So some countries in the EU have been able to shut down their borders to us - it’s almost as if they have sovereignty and control of their own borders!

 

[najaB]

So some countries in the EU have been able to shut down their borders - it’s almost as if they have sovereignty and control of their own borders!

Ah, but they don't have blue passports!

(What's that? Croatia. Really?!)

 

[eoff]

If Boris gets the no deal then can we expect a Belgian fleet (of one) again?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55190259

The British government had no desire to test in public the validity of the Bruges Charter and the legal power of personal decrees made by Kings and Queens in open court. To Victor and to the fishing crews of Bruges that was a tacit admission that the fishing privileges granted by a grateful Crown around the time that Sir Christopher Wren was designing St Paul's Cathedral remained valid around the time the Beatles were beginning to top the charts. And no-one in the UK, it seems, cared to contradict him.

Victor's son Paul says the fishermen of Bruges recognised his achievement: "He was a hero," he told us simply.

(this thread is very long, apologies if this was covered before).

 

[37424]

If Boris gets the no deal then can we expect a Belgian fleet (of one) again?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55190259

(this thread is very long, apologies if this was covered before).

I think the EU fleet will go war especially the French. the government seem intent on putting a lot of the EU fishing fleet out of business at the drop of a hat even with a deal that is acceptable to them, but then they also don't have problems potentially putting some UK businesses out of business at the drop of a hat so we shouldn't be surprised.

Given the escalating situation with covid and border closure any sensible government would put these talks on hold and extend the transition period until the summer but of course the country is effectively being held to ransom by the ERG group and Farage the disruptor and they won't stand for that.

Apparently Farage is angry that France has taken control or even taken back control of its borders