Brexit matters

[nlogax]

Imagine an entire deal being nixed at the final moment because the government didn't get everything it wanted for 0.12% of the UK economy.

That would be beyond embarrassing.

 

[21C101]

The government and media continue to obsess over fishing. It’s on the radio news bulletins, on news websites, and ITV Meridian News had a special Brexit edition last night, with fishing coming up a lot. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be talked about, as it still is an important point, but I’ve very rarely heard any of the media outlets challenging the views about fishing from government and the fishing industry - it’s rarely mentioned how small a part of the economy is, and I’d like to hear about other more important sectors. It gives the impression that fishing is one of the most important. It seems to me the government are just encouraging people’s patriotic emotions.

For example, here is a BBC News article . Fishing is mentioned three times.

It is quite usual for the big publicised row in major negotiations to be something totemic but of secondary importance to allow the really big thorny things to be discussed and concessions made on both sides without attracting much attention.

I suspect with fishing the result will be a time limited period of about 5 years when the EU gets much then same proportion as now but has to follow our rules (which for the latter for the sake of the environment and sustainability can't happen too soon.

 

[DarloRich]

I suspect with fishing the result will be a time limited period of about 5 years when the EU gets much then same proportion as now but has to follow our rules (which for the latter for the sake of the environment and sustainability can't happen too soon.

that would be a sensible outcome to secure a deal. Sensible does a lot of lifting in this context!

 

[Dave1987]

I find it amazing exactly how much of an economic hit old BoJo is willingly happy to take just for the sake of "sovereignty" and a larger catch for fishermen. They have already spent tens of billions of pounds on preparations for a potential no deal. They keep saying that leaving the EU will make us more prosperous in the very long term. I am wondering whether half these hardcore Brexiteer Tories will even be alive if we ever get to that stage and how many years it will take to pay off the enormous bill from the hit taken from leaving the EU. It could be 50 years before the bill is paid off for all this disruption I doubt many people will be alive that voted to leave by the time the UK sorts itself out post-Brexit. And all in the name of "Sovereignty" and fishing. And after this, the UK still has to start negotiating with countries to get trade deals in place the EU and Australia have reportedly been negotiating a free trade deal for around three years so far. So much for the "Australia solution" being absolutely fine. The Australians are clearly not happy with it.

 

[37424]

I find it amazing exactly how much of an economic hit old BoJo is willingly happy to take just for the sake of "sovereignty" and a larger catch for fishermen. They have already spent tens of billions of pounds on preparations for a potential no deal. They keep saying that leaving the EU will make us more prosperous in the very long term. I am wondering whether half these hardcore Brexiteer Tories will even be alive if we ever get to that stage and how many years it will take to pay off the enormous bill from the hit taken from leaving the EU. It could be 50 years before the bill is paid off for all this disruption I doubt many people will be alive that voted to leave by the time the UK sorts itself out post-Brexit. And all in the name of "Sovereignty" and fishing. And after this, the UK still has to start negotiating with countries to get trade deals in place the EU and Australia have reportedly been negotiating a free trade deal for around three years so far. So much for the "Australia solution" being absolutely fine. The Australians are clearly not happy with it.

I don't find it amazing at all from Boris and his motley crew as for all these fantastic trade deals so far there pretty much on the same terms as previous EU deals and the majority with smaller countries where we do a limited amount of trade.

I think Boris knows he won't get the deal he wants from the EU, and it will be No Deal, he is just running down the clock to get to as near to Jan 1st as he can now to limit dissent with the line we tried as hard as we could but the EU were just too unreasonable, and any lockdown restrictions in the new year for covid will be as much about limiting potential protests as it will be preventing the spread of covid, but maybe I am just being too cynical about it

Still Fishing is more important than the potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs that could go in other sectors

Even more entertaining will be the mini deals needed just to keep things moving with No Deal I doubt we will even able to agree on that

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Imagine an entire deal being nixed at the final moment because the government didn't get everything it wanted for 0.12% of the UK economy.

That would be beyond embarrassing.

You could also say that about the actions of the French government.

 

[nlogax]

You could also say that about the actions of the French government.

Top whataboutery there. Macron is out to gain re-election in 2022 and needs those north coast French votes. Johnson.. god knows what he thinks he's going to get out of this beyond a few of die-hard no-deal idiots applauding his nationalist posturing.

 

[21C101]

I don't find it amazing at all from Boris and his motley crew as for all these fantastic trade deals so far there pretty much on the same terms as previous EU deals and the majority with smaller countries where we do a limited amount of trade.

I think Boris knows he won't get the deal he wants from the EU, and it will be No Deal, he is just running down the clock to get to as near to Jan 1st as he can now to limit dissent with the line we tried as hard as we could but the EU were just too unreasonable, and any lockdown restrictions in the new year for covid will be as much about limiting potential protests as it will be preventing the spread of covid, but maybe I am just being too cynical about it

Still Fishing is more important than the potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs that could go in other sectors

Even more entertaining will be the mini deals needed just to keep things moving with No Deal I doubt we will even able to agree on that

I doubt hardline brexiters actually care any more about it than Michael Collins cared about the impact of Partition on towns and businesses around the border and even the less hardline ones likely consider it an acceptable price to pay on the "you can't make an omlette without breaking eggs" but would never admit this, hence the dancing around on it.

Heath and co certainly didn't give a whit for the jobs and businesses negatively impacted by joining. It was seen as an acceptable price to pay to reach the sunlit uplands.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Top whataboutery there. Macron is out to gain re-election in 2022 and needs those north coast French votes. Johnson.. god knows what he thinks he's going to get out of this beyond a few of die-hard no-deal idiots applauding his nationalist posturing.

Are you calling all the coatal fishing villages of Britain "dire-hard, no deal idiots"?

See, this is what I mean. I've noticed that remainers seem to defend the EU's negotiating tactics at every turn, which blasting British negotiating tactics as stupid/unfair/xenophobic etc etc. Johnson needs those fishing seats too for the next election. Imagine if he sold them out-Farage would only be too pleased to introduce himself and split the Tory vote. Germany doesn't care too much about fishing, and it would be embarassing to the EU if French fishing scuppered an important trade deal in Britain.

You must know how important fishing is symbolically to Britain, and you must know that fishing is one of the central pillars of euroscepticism in Britain. It may be a small part of the economy, but it carries huge emotional relevance.

 

[37424]

Are you calling all the coatal fishing villages of Britain "dire-hard, no deal idiots"?

See, this is what I mean. I've noticed that remainers seem to defend the EU's negotiating tactics at every turn, which blasting British negotiating tactics as stupid/unfair/xenophobic etc etc. Johnson needs those fishing seats too for the next election. Imagine if he sold them out-Farage would only be too pleased to introduce himself and split the Tory vote. Germany doesn't care too much about fishing, and it would be embarassing to the EU if French fishing scuppered an important trade deal in Britain.

You must know how important fishing is symbolically to Britain, and you must know that fishing is one of the central pillars of euroscepticism in Britain. It may be a small part of the economy, but it carries huge emotional relevance.

But he also needs votes in other sectors and other parts of the country that will be affected, I don't defend EU negotiating tactics by any means, but the idea we would get a simple straight trade deal with no strings attached was never going to happen, you only have to look at the non EU countries in the EEA and the conditions that apply to see that.

I don't particularly like the way the EU operates in this respect, but overall I think we are better off in it than out of it even with some strings attached, including throwing in some fish.

 

[nlogax]

Are you calling all the coatal fishing villages of Britain "dire-hard, no deal idiots"?

No. Well done at completely misinterpreting what I said though. Top job.

You're also entirely missing the point. Votes for supporting the fishing industry will be massively outnumbered by votes against Johnson from everywhere else that is ruined by a no-deal Brexit. Fishing means very little when it comes to his prospects. Brexiteers can't seem to get their heads around that. Why?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It wasn't that easy to misinterpret what you said because even if that's not what you meant, that's how it sounded when fishing communities support Johnson's stance.

At the end of the day-it goes back to sovereignty; a clean break equals, in theory, a rebirth in localism and a great shift away from internationalism. You probably disagree, many here do. We've been through this. It's just how people are wired and politicans aren't very good at understanding how and why the public are wired in such ways.

 

[simonw]

It wasn't that easy to misinterpret what you said because even if that's not what you meant, that's how it sounded when fishing communities support Johnson's stance.

At the end of the day-it goes back to sovereignty; a clean break equals, in theory, a rebirth in localism and a great shift away from internationalism. You probably disagree, many here do. We've been through this. It's just how people are wired and politicans aren't very good at understanding how and why the public are wired in such ways.

if brex it represent s a great shift away from internationalism, why are the government so keen to do new free trade deals around the world. Your posts highlights the fact that brexit means different things to different people and a significant percentage are likely to not get what they are hoping for.

 

[nlogax]

At the end of the day-it goes back to sovereignty; a clean break equals, in theory, a rebirth in localism and a great shift away from internationalism. You probably disagree, many here do. We've been through this. It's just how people are wired and politicans aren't very good at understanding how and why the public are wired in such ways.

I appreciate the theory you've put there but having lived in this country for most of my adult life I have zero faith in this becoming reality. We'll still buy goods from the EU because for so much of what we buy there's no alternative. For instance, our manufacturing base isn't going to return simply because we've pulled up the drawbridge and made things more expensive / difficult.

Brexit is, in essence, an attempt to ignore geography and to locally rewind the changes that the world has seen in the last forty years. It is not grounded in any reality that I recognize.

 

[Senex]

It wasn't that easy to misinterpret what you said because even if that's not what you meant, that's how it sounded when fishing communities support Johnson's stance.

At the end of the day-it goes back to sovereignty; a clean break equals, in theory, a rebirth in localism and a great shift away from internationalism. You probably disagree, many here do. We've been through this. It's just how people are wired and politicans aren't very good at understanding how and why the public are wired in such ways.

Yes, we've been through it all. And it remains hard to understand how a power-grab to Westminster in a centralised state equals a rebirth in localism, even in theory. After all, we've seen that there's an attempt even to restrict some of the powers of the devolved administrations and to retain in London repatriated powers that should go to the devolved administrations. That's before one even thinks of the English regions and the failure to devolve and real powers, with the money to back them up, to those. Sovereignty, to Johnson and his cronies, means all power to Westminster (and trying to by-pass parliament and rely on Henry VIII powers when "necessary").

 

[Sad Sprinter]

if brex it represent s a great shift away from internationalism, why are the government so keen to do new free trade deals around the world. Your posts highlights the fact that brexit means different things to different people and a significant percentage are likely to not get what they are hoping for.

Yes of course it does. I hardly doubt Dudley voted for Brexit to become "Singapore-upon-Thames", but the Telegraph set certainly seems to have done so.

I appreciate the theory you've put there but having lived in this country for most of my adult life I have zero faith in this becoming reality. We'll still buy goods from the EU because for so much of what we buy there's no alternative. For instance, our manufacturing base isn't going to return simply because we've pulled up the drawbridge and made things more expensive / difficult.

Brexit is, in essence, an attempt to ignore geography and to locally rewind the changes that the world has seen in the last forty years. It is not grounded in any reality that I recognize.

Yes, I don't believe the changes we have seen over the past four decades has been welcomed by most people outside of metropolitan areas.

Brexit at least highlighted the connection between deindustrialisation and a lack of feeling of place and purpose for ex-London areas. But yes, had we of had more support decades ago-even in the New Labour era-hell, even in the early Cameron era, Brexit might have been avoided.

 

[nlogax]

Brexit at least highlighted the connection between deindustrialisation and a lack of feeling of place and purpose for ex-London areas. But yes, had we of had more support decades ago-even in the New Labour era-hell, even in the early Cameron era, Brexit might have been avoided.

On that we can at least agree. I don't think anyone would contest that Brexit was the heatsink for pent-up frustration and anger about how parts of this country are run and managed, many or most of which owe nothing to our EU membership. That's a long-term series of British governmental failures going back to the 1980s and while I tend to stay away from what-ifs, things could and should have been very different for many areas of the UK.

What it immediately obvious is that Brexit won't fix any of it. As a response to nationwide problems it's a national flail executed with what appears to be our trademark national governmental incompetence.

 

[yorksrob]

According to the BBC this morning, there's a sticking point in that the EU side wants to ban all state aid, except that provided by the EU (through ESIF).

Since that wouldn't really be a level playing field, as we won't have access to ESIF funding, perhaps a sensible compromise might be that we agree not to spend more on state aid per capita than the EU. But we would get to choose what we spend it on.

 

[simonw]

Yes of course it does. I hardly doubt Dudley voted for Brexit to become "Singapore-upon-Thames", but the Telegraph set certainly seems to have done so.



Yes, I don't believe the changes we have seen over the past four decades has been welcomed by most people outside of metropolitan areas.

Brexit at least highlighted the connection between deindustrialisation and a lack of feeling of place and purpose for ex-London areas. But yes, had we of had more support decades ago-even in the New Labour era-hell, even in the early Cameron era, Brexit might have been avoided.

So I are effectively saying brexiters voted for something that will deliver something most of them don't want.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

So I are effectively saying brexiters voted for something that will deliver something most of them don't want.

That's not actually true. The political economy of the Conservative Party has now completely changed, the idea of wanting to retain control over state aid to create "national champions" would have been sickmaking to the Tory elite as little as five years ago. Labour will know it'll have to pursue a more interventionist economic policy in order to win back "Red-Wall" seats.

What Brexit did, was change the political will to protect British industry and bury the old metropolitan "let it rust, the Chinese do it better" mentality of the past few decades.

 

[Typhoon]

The government and media continue to obsess over fishing.

I think it goes back to the Referendum where Nigel made such a fuss about it with his 'Fishing for Leave' armada which was all about bolstering the UKIP vote. (The armada started in Ramsgate, not the country's premier fishing port but part of the constituency he fought in 2005 and 2015.)

Since then the Conservatives seem to be preoccupied with fishing and the need not to be outflanked by whatever flag Mr F is flying at the time. It now seems to be ingrained into the Party's psyche (backed by those ERG supporters who do not want a deal). Possibly Boris is now worried about losing face - the man who let the fishing industry down. That is the problem with having a Prime Minister who just wants to be liked. Put that against a President who wants to be liked (and an election to win), we have stalemate!

Of course Mr F has always championed the UK fishing industry, presumably why he was on the European Parliament Fisheries Committee and, surely, would have attended more than one meeting if he didn't have more pressing things to deal with (staging walk-outs, avoiding tax, writing books, paid lectures, meddling with various European elections). He seems to have left fishing behind as you can now find your way to financial success through 'Fortune and Freedom with Nigel Farage' (other financial advisors are, of course, available).

 

[najaB]

It seems to me the government are just encouraging people’s patriotic emotions.

No, that could never be it.

 

[Dave1987]

Get ready for a bonfire of workers rights if no deal is the outcome. Many things like the rights to a break after so many hours worked and the rights to parental leave were all enshrined in EU law. To make Britain more “competitive“ you can be sure stuff like that will be for the chop along with union laws etc.

 

[wireforever]

JR Mogg has just shotdown a SNP mp and told him Scotland will need to get bigger fishing boats after brexit happens in answer to to a question in Parliament.The previous poster mentions workers rights they will use the excuse of economic recovery after covid to scrap most of them

 

[simonw]

That's not actually true. The political economy of the Conservative Party has now completely changed, the idea of wanting to retain control over state aid to create "national champions" would have been sickmaking to the Tory elite as little as five years ago. Labour will know it'll have to pursue a more interventionist economic policy in order to win back "Red-Wall" seats.

What Brexit did, was change the political will to protect British industry and bury the old metropolitan "let it rust, the Chinese do it better" mentality of the past few decades.

You may hope for that. I see it highly unlikely, more a shredding of rights and standards in order to compete with china etc.

 

[najaB]

JR Mogg has just shotdown a SNP mp and told him Scotland will need to get bigger fishing boats after brexit happens in answer to to a question in Parliament.The previous poster mentions workers rights they will use the excuse of economic recovery after covid to scrap most of them

I can't find the original source, but I saw an image that showed the location of UK-registered boats as compared to our EEZ. Unsurprisingly, there were more UK boats outside UK waters than in.

 

[edwin_m]

I think it goes back to the Referendum where Nigel made such a fuss about it with his 'Fishing for Leave' armada which was all about bolstering the UKIP vote. (The armada started in Ramsgate, not the country's premier fishing port but part of the constituency he fought in 2005 and 2015.)

Since then the Conservatives seem to be preoccupied with fishing and the need not to be outflanked by whatever flag Mr F is flying at the time. It now seems to be ingrained into the Party's psyche (backed by those ERG supporters who do not want a deal). Possibly Boris is now worried about losing face - the man who let the fishing industry down. That is the problem with having a Prime Minister who just wants to be liked. Put that against a President who wants to be liked (and an election to win), we have stalemate!

Of course Mr F has always championed the UK fishing industry, presumably why he was on the European Parliament Fisheries Committee and, surely, would have attended more than one meeting if he didn't have more pressing things to deal with (staging walk-outs, avoiding tax, writing books, paid lectures, meddling with various European elections). He seems to have left fishing behind as you can now find your way to financial success through 'Fortune and Freedom with Nigel Farage' (other financial advisors are, of course, available).

There's also Gove, who seems to have been a lifelong Leaver mainly because he believes the EU was responsible for the collapse of his parents' fish-related business.

 

[yorksrob]

It sounds as though the EU want a transition period of several years from the current arrangement to one where quotas are decided bi-laterally on an annual basis as with Norway. This is something I would compromise on as the fishing industry is used to the status quo, and let's face it, we can wait another ten years.

 

[21C101]

Get ready for a bonfire of workers rights if no deal is the outcome. Many things like the rights to a break after so many hours worked and the rights to parental leave were all enshrined in EU law. To make Britain more “competitive“ you can be sure stuff like that will be for the chop along with union laws etc.

As Sadsprinter said, that Tory party has died. The tories have lost the wealthy metropolitan areas of big cities to Libdem/Labour and need to retain places like Blyth to stay in power, where a bonfire of workers rights will go down like a lead balloon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Dec 2020 ==

Yes of course it does. I hardly doubt Dudley voted for Brexit to become "Singapore-upon-Thames", but the Telegraph set certainly seems to have done so

I think for those who really thought about it and followed it for decades (in my case the disillusion set in by 1992 after Black Wednesday followed shortly after by Heseltines announcement of shutting down the viable coal mines (the latter of which to this day I think was the beginning of the end of Majors government). By 1997 I found myself voting for the Referedum Party.

Obviously "politics" was used involving fish Singapore on Thames and NHS buses to get various less interested factions on board and get it over the line in 2016 in the face of the government spending millions on pro EU propaganda brochures delivered into every home, causing considerable rancour.

The other thing is that it brought to an end the peculiar coalition of the Tories and Liberals from 1906 to 1915.

The liberal party split over Ireland with half the party forming a a separate Liberal Unionist Party then joining what was renamed the Conservative and [Liberal] Unionist Party. With the rise of Labour after the post 1918 universal Franchise both the Liberals and a faction of Labour then split from their party when the Labour Leader formed a National Government in coalition with the government. National Liberals continued to stand and take the Tory whip until final subsumation into the Tories in the 1960s. Heseltine first stood as a National Liberal.

Thatcher was in many ways a 19th Century Liberal.

2019 saw the final break with places like Bath that had been a safe Liberal seat in the 19th Century, a Tory/Liberal marginal by the late 19th Century, an safe Tory seat from the 1920s to 1997, then a Tory/Liberal marginal after 1997 became safe Liberal in 2019. Many similar such places elected "liberal" labour candidates.

Conversely seats that had not seen Tory MPs since the universal franchise with Labour weighing their vote and Torys lucky to retain their deposit started turning Tory. Like Mansfield that turned Tory by a wafer thin margin in 2015 becoming a safe seat by 2019.

It would be logical for Labour to split with the Starmerite wing to merge with the Libdems with the Corbynite wing following a similar trajectory to that of the Liberals in the 20th Century. But nothing in politics is logical. If it was it would have been the Tories not Liberals replaced wholesale by Labour after 1918.

 

[Intercity 225]

You could also say that about the actions of the French government.

Not necessarily, once you think a bit deeper Macron might be quite happy for fishing to lead to no deal because it could improve French interests overall. Let me explain:

Ever since the referendum there has been a slow drip feed of financial services moving from the City of London to financial centres in the EU. In a no deal scenario that's going to speed up and Paris would be a key beneficiary of this. Because fishing is such a tiny part of both the British and French economies the benefit of a boost to Paris/France in the financial services sector would far outweigh the loss of any fishing rights they currently enjoy.

This may be of little comfort to the fishermen of northern France but they could be easily compensated for the damages they've suffered by the French government using some of the additional revenue generated by the above. The EU also has a history of funding deprived areas and Macron would be capable of using his massive influence within the bloc to funnel further funds to his fishermen from the EU directly.

Whilst a no deal situation would undoubtedly be damaging to all parties in the immediate term, in the relatively short term the EU and particularly the French are better positioned than we are to recover quickly.

On top of all that his main rival in the upcoming French Presidency elections is likely to be Le Pen - a renowned Eurosceptic. A boost to the Parisian financial sector as a result of EU membership, EU recovery funds compensating the French fishermen who've lost out and a UK in chaos trying to handle a no deal scenario is likely to boost the very pro-European Macron's electoral chances in 2022.