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Brexit matters

21C101

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Why on earth should feelings be the reason to make such a monumental change, rather than actual facts?? That is just ridiculous! Especially when those feelings have been stoked up by misinformation (some of the things that get some Brexiteers angry are things that don’t really have anything to do with the EU, or are not factual, like when it comes to immigration or fishing).

Interesting you mention Russia. I’d love to know how much they have influenced all this, but we’ll probably never know.

Im sure some of the EU countries will lose out with some things with no deal, but I’m sure those Italian farmers you mention have lots of other countries they are selling to!
Because we are animals governed by instinct. Yes we humans uniquely temper it with reason, but only to a certain extent, and the biggest decisions are those most driven by instinct not reason as any registrar of marriages or estate agent can tell you.
 
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Dave1987

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I think at the end of the day, its not about benefits, its about feeling. Britain should never have joined the EU-we joined at the wrong time for the wrong reasons. We never bought into it, never felt like it was a key pillar to a peaceful, democratic society like the EU members themselves. We joined it because A-in 1975 the country was in a mess and something had to change and B, we continued our membership to enhance British global power-which isn't a very communitarian reason. Our close relationship with the EU is an illusion; every British government since 1945 has without fail chosen the US as our closest ally and neglected Europe for defence matters. Trade is important but means little when the arch-objective of the EU is federalism rather than trading.

Our relationship with Europe would heal quickly. Britain and Europe need eachother, no one would benefit from such a schism particuarly the East Europeans who live in the shadow of a laughing Russia. If we leave with no deal, the domestic political consequences have the potential to turn nasty on the continent. Imagine all those Italian farmers not being able to sell to Britain because of French fishing demands? It's not a long-game the EU needs to play.

Besides, as I said, there is no benefits to Scottish Independence. And no Eu membership doesn't count unless Scotland wants a GB tarriff border/huge deficit reduction/pain of setting up own currency and bank and risking reduction of precious exports to England-yet Scottish Independence is currently supported by 56% of the Scottish electorate. And yet, English remainers often blow kisses and throw roses and Scottish seperatists when they display exactly what they loathe in Brexiteers. There is something inate inside people that makes them vote for things that economically will do harm but psychologically makes their lives more meaningful.

Yes I've heard a lot about how we can stick the proverbial two fingers up at Brussels and go do an awesome trade deal with the US. But there are big issues with that. The US is not our big friend on the other side of the pond. Post-war they demanded we paid back all our war debts. One of the reasons the UK was in such a bad state in the 50's and 60's was because we had to pay back our debts to the US. Whereas the US poured money into Europe to rebuild it! Now the reasons the US are talking about a trade deal is purely to eye up bits of the NHS for the healthcare giants and to enable them to sell us hormone-fed beef and chlorinated chicken. It is nothing really to do with them being our friends against a big bad nasty EU. We have to remember Britannia does not rule the waves any more. We are not this all-powerful all-conquering nation any longer. We are a small nation on the northwest corner of Europe that has punched above its weight for many years.
 

Typhoon

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I gather a Tory MP (Sir Roger Gale) has said that No Deal Brexit would be a major failure by Boris Johnson and he should resign in that case, apperently he is a bit of a Remainer which surprised me as I thought Boris had got rid of them all except Teresa May.
Roger Gale is a pretty decent bloke (he's my MP). I don't agree with him on everything but he does at least come up with a reasonable argument. Boris would struggle to get rid of him because he repeatedly voted for Teresa May's deals and stuck up for her deals when Boris was putting the boot in (first clip below) so he actually has a better record on voting to leave (post referendum) than Boris; he is also not an ardent remainer (his view appears to be that the EU was the least worst option - interview with Ian Collins, second clip below, but has always said that post referendum we have to leave because that is the way the vote went - which some of those booted out did not).

He is 77 so may not be around much longer, sadly, (although he has a sizeable personal vote amongst the more mature - by age - constituents). Doubtless he will be replaced by some waste of space who will visit the constituency once in a blue moon and do whatever they are told.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g14IoGPxZfs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9juRap_dYso
 

adrock1976

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What's it called? It's called Cumbernauld
My view is that the best deal possible was the one we already had before leaving the EU.

For example, we (the UK) opted out of the Working Time Directive and were never part of the Schengen Zone.

All of the mess we are in today is caused by David Cameron trying to out-garage Nigel Farage and trying to avoid a backbench revolt among the Eurosceptic MPs.

Eventually, I can see only England and Wales being part of what would be left of the UK, as Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Gibraltar all voted to remain in 2016.

The economic fallout will be unknown for a while, but with what is going on with Brexit and the pandemic, I have casted my mind back to a former workmate's comments in my first job back in 1993. I have started a new thread at https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...d-possibilities-post-brexit-and-covid.212283/
 

21C101

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The whole trade deals businessis a bit of a distraction. WTO (formerly GATT) is basically a worldwide trade deal.

"No Deal" Brexit pre GATT would have been far harder.

As it is all the disruption and chaos forecast if there is no deal in the most gloom laden forecasts is a mere fraction of the disruption and chaos already caused by Corona and the world hasn't come to an end.

I'm a little surprised no one has yet accused Brexiteers of concocting Corona in a cave somewhere watched by Farage stroking a cat....

In the end people would get more upset if the Post Office stopped painting Post Boxes red than they will about a couple of percent knocked off GDP.
 

simonw

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The whole trade deals businessis a bit of a distraction. WTO (formerly GATT) is basically a worldwide trade deal.

"No Deal" Brexit pre GATT would have been far harder.

As it is all the disruption and chaos forecast if there is no deal in the most gloom laden forecasts is a mere fraction of the disruption and chaos already caused by Corona and the world hasn't come to an end.

I'm a little surprised no one has yet accused Brexiteers of concocting Corona in a cave somewhere watched by Farage stroking a cat....

In the end people would get more upset if the Post Office stopped painting post Boxes red than they will about a couple of percent knocked off GDP.
WTO is not a trade deal. Trade deals are more than just about tariffs.
 

najaB

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Our relationship with Europe would heal quickly. Britain and Europe need eachother, no one would benefit from such a schism particuarly the East Europeans who live in the shadow of a laughing Russia. If we leave with no deal, the domestic political consequences have the potential to turn nasty on the continent. Imagine all those Italian farmers not being able to sell to Britain because of French fishing demands? It's not a long-game the EU needs to play.
Italian agricultural exports to Germany and France are around €13B as compared to €3.5B to the UK.

They'll survive.
 

dosxuk

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The whole trade deals businessis a bit of a distraction. WTO (formerly GATT) is basically a worldwide trade deal.

One that countries are obsessed with setting up better deals to avoid.

As it is all the disruption and chaos forecast if there is no deal in the most gloom laden forecasts is a mere fraction of the disruption and chaos already caused by Corona and the world hasn't come to an end.

It's looking likely to be April by the time the covid disruption to shipping will be sorted out. It's almost time for Chinese New Year which always causes some issues, but this year there will be no opportunity to stockpile ahead of that because the entire system is already struggling.

Add to that a no-deal Brexit and every shipment needing to be inspected and fully documented, using protocols and paperwork that isn't fully defined yet, on systems that are not likely to work at the required level for months yet, and you're looking at complete chaos. The Government aren't just throwing money around like confetti hiring portaloos, trying to arrange for extra ferries and setting up travel permits for Kent for no reason. They're doing that because they think there is a reasonable chance those facilities will be needed.

I have friends in the food supply chain, they're are extremely worried about our prospects for getting any imported fresh food into the supermarkets for at least the first few months of next year in the event of a no deal. There are already major problems with getting things into the country, even ignoring things like whether the labelling requirements will change with no deal meaning stuff that is already here will become illegal to sell after Jan 1st.

Remember "Project Fear" was invented by the leave side.
 

21C101

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"like whether the labelling requirements will change with no deal meaning stuff that is already here will become illegal to sell after Jan 1st."

A one line act of parliament will sort that if it occurs. Not sure that is the best argument against brexit given that such an act is no longer complicated by having to align with EU law after Jan 1st.

I'm sure there will be some disruption, particularly if the EU set out to cause it, but I doubt it will be anywhere near as bad as those bigging it up make out.
 

najaB

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I'm sure there will be some disruption, particularly if the EU set out to cause it
The EU aren't going to set out to cause unnecessary disruption as it's not in their interest.

They are also not going to treat us any differently to any other third country, absent a deal. If application of the rules intended to protect their market ends up causing disruption in the UK then that's our problem.
 

dosxuk

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"like whether the labelling requirements will change with no deal meaning stuff that is already here will become illegal to sell after Jan 1st."

A one line act of parliament will sort that if it occurs. Not sure that is the best argument against brexit given that such an act is no longer complicated by having to align with EU law after Jan 1st.

I'm sure there will be some disruption, particularly if the EU set out to cause it, but I doubt it will be anywhere near as bad as those bigging it up make out.

It's not an argument against Brexit, it's a real world example of the disruption that will be caused by not setting out the new rules and requirements with enough time for business to adapt. When exactly is such a one-line act going to get passed through Parliament? There's not very many sitting days left between now and the 1st Jan, and we don't even know if we'll need anything yet.

It's absolute lunacy to have such a momentous change of rules without time for adaptation. The Government know this, that is why they were talking about August being the deadline.
 

najaB

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I'm sure there will be some disruption, particularly if the EU set out to cause it
Returning to that statement, I think it's an insightful look into the psyche of a Brexit-supporter.

The EU has rules intended to secure its borders and protect its industries from unfair competition. The fact that these rules exist can be no surprise to the UK government as they are the rules that we helped to formulate, and which we're continuing to enforce until the end of the transition period.

We chose to leave the EU, at least partially so that we could set our own rules to secure our borders and protect our businesses from unfair competition.


The UK government was given an extended period, both before and after invoking Article 50 to agree a bespoke set of rules that would apply between the UK and EU so that we would avoid having to follow those third-country rules.

We chose to leave the EU, we failed to negotiate a bespoke agreement before an arbitrary deadline that we set - yet it's the EU trying to cause trouble. :rolleyes:
 

alex397

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Because we are animals governed by instinct. Yes we humans uniquely temper it with reason, but only to a certain extent, and the biggest decisions are those most driven by instinct not reason as any registrar of marriages or estate agent can tell you.
Where is the logic in cutting ties with our biggest trading partner on ‘gut instinct’? Or any major decision affecting a whole country for that matter. Big decisions like this need to be based on facts, not emotion. It’s completely ludicrous to do so otherwise.

My friend who has bought a house looked at the price, location in relation to the station, how close it was to good schools and his parents, and whether he would have enough room for future children. He didn’t just buy it because it looked nice and just felt right - he and his partner did a proper analysis to see if it was suitable for them. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail, as the saying goes!
 

Journeyman

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It really depresses me to see the EU viewed as a foreign enemy. Our membership brought enormous benefits, and the UK had a massive hand in designing the rules of the single market - rules we're suddenly complaining about being unfair, but that in future we'll have no control over.

We're about to find out just how much we've lost.
 

21C101

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Where is the logic in cutting ties with our biggest trading partner on ‘gut instinct’? Or any major decision affecting a whole country for that matter. Big decisions like this need to be based on facts, not emotion. It’s completely ludicrous to do so otherwise.

My friend who has bought a house looked at the price, location in relation to the station, how close it was to good schools and his parents, and whether he would have enough room for future children. He didn’t just buy it because it looked nice and just felt right - he and his partner did a proper analysis to see if it was suitable for them. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail, as the saying goes!
And do you think him typical?

Most buyers don't even get a proper survey done.

As I said we are animals and exceptional in the animal kingdom in applying any reason and logic at all, and the more important the decision, the more instinct tends to dominate it in most, but not all people.

Take an off the wall scenario; if there were ever serious talks about reuniting the UK and R of Ireland, the biggest rows would be about things like the colour postboxes were painted and what cipher was moulded into them. Fish is similarly talismatic. Following logic makes us comfortable so we usually do it with day to day matters but following instinct makes us happy. If it didn't there would be no bookmakers.

Indeed if only logic and economic considerations applied then I doubt that Ireland would ever left the UK. Ireland suffered decades of economic hardship after independence, far worse than anything we are likely to see post Brexit even under the gloomiest scenarios, but few would have it any other way.

Ironically if Ireland had not broken away, we would still be in the EU, as their votes would have seen remain through to victory in the referendum.
 

21C101

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Isn't it a condition of being able to get a mortgage? That effectively makes it compulsory. I had to get one on a new build.
To get a mortgage a perfunctory survery is required. It is cheap and superficial, and will only find the obvious and to my mind barely worthy of the word survey. Few pay for a proper structural survey which will cost several hundred more pounds. Most get away with it, some have their life ruined.
 

Journeyman

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To get a mortgage a perfunctory survery is required. It is cheap and superficial, and will only find the obvious and to my mind barely worthy of the word survey. Few pay for a proper structural survey which will cost several hundred more pounds. Most get away with it, some have their life ruined.

You're very critical and judgemental of other people's decisions, aren't you?
 

najaB

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Few pay for a proper structural survey which will cost several hundred more pounds. Most get away with it, some have their life ruined.
I'm Scotland comprehensive home reports have been mandated for at least five or six years.

Not sure what any of this has to do with Brexit though.
 

Journeyman

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I'm Scotland comprehensive home reports have been mandated for at least five or six years.

Not sure what any of this has to do with Brexit though.

It's just an attempt to paint Remainers as idiots. If only we had grammar schools and National Service, eh? That'd show 'em.
 

alex397

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It really depresses me to see the EU viewed as a foreign enemy. Our membership brought enormous benefits, and the UK had a massive hand in designing the rules of the single market - rules we're suddenly complaining about being unfair, but that in future we'll have no control over.

We're about to find out just how much we've lost.
Indeed, it is depressing. Most people probably are not this extreme, but hearing some of the war-like talk from some people and some sections of the media, is incredibly frustrating. Sure, we can leave the EU, but the EU should be seen as an ally, not an enemy. It really isn’t constructive.

No doubt many will realise what we are losing, but some will continue to have their fingers in their ears.
 

edwin_m

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Because we are animals governed by instinct. Yes we humans uniquely temper it with reason, but only to a certain extent, and the biggest decisions are those most driven by instinct not reason as any registrar of marriages or estate agent can tell you.
That instinct evolved to achieve survival as hunter-gatherers, and our development over the last few thousand years has been too fast for it to evolve further. So instinct still has a place in personal relationships and domestic-scale activities like marriage and house purchase, but isn't a good way of dealing with the bigger issues in modern society that hunter-gatherers never had to face. A particularly pertinent example is the instinct to be suspicious of the other tribe who may be after your woolly mammoth or worse. In a modern society this exhibits as wars and religious/racial intolerance. Where the other tribe may have the technology to obliterate you in four minutes, it's really better to stay friends.

Arguably a definition of civilisation is the ability to act rationally rather than on the basis of instinct.
 

Journeyman

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Indeed, it is depressing. Most people probably are not this extreme, but hearing some of the war-like talk from some people and some sections of the media, is incredibly frustrating. Sure, we can leave the EU, but the EU should be seen as an ally, not an enemy. It really isn’t constructive.

No doubt many will realise what we are losing, but some will continue to have their fingers in their ears.

I think we've poisoned the well too much to ever rejoin, but I hope that after a period of isolated misery, we might realise closer ties are a good thing. I'd settle for CU/SM membership again, and I've a feeling business will be clamouring for it before long. I don't think this government would ever do it, but let's hope a future government might.
 

37424

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The whole trade deals businessis a bit of a distraction. WTO (formerly GATT) is basically a worldwide trade deal.

"No Deal" Brexit pre GATT would have been far harder.

As it is all the disruption and chaos forecast if there is no deal in the most gloom laden forecasts is a mere fraction of the disruption and chaos already caused by Corona and the world hasn't come to an end.

I'm a little surprised no one has yet accused Brexiteers of concocting Corona in a cave somewhere watched by Farage stroking a cat....

In the end people would get more upset if the Post Office stopped painting Post Boxes red than they will about a couple of percent knocked off GDP.
Except of course we will have sectors that have been generally less affected by covid more affected by Brexit, so we can have a nice even bigger selection of sectors that are affected by Covid or No Deal, along with companies that export and import having to deal with all the new paperwork and trying to get goods in and out of the country without delays, and of particular concern will be food and medicine. If we reach as point of No Deal then we even have to agree with the EU how to keep transport moving from the 1st of Jan.

As for being more upset about Red Post Boxes I would imagine that it would be mainly Brexiteers that would be more upset about that.
 

najaB

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I think we've poisoned the well too much to ever rejoin, but I hope that after a period of isolated misery, we might realise closer ties are a good thing.
I don't think so. The feeling I get from speaking with European friends is that they think we've gone a little funny, but they expect us to get over it at some point.

We won't be able to rejoin in the terms that we had before leaving, that much is certain.
 

37424

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I don't think so. The feeling I get from speaking with European friends is that they think we've gone a little funny, but they expect us to get over it at some point.

We won't be able to rejoin in the terms that we had before leaving, that much is certain.
I don't think there is any chance we will rejoin for many years, but if we end up with No Deal I think we will end up with some deal eventually even if we have to wait for a change of Government.
 

Journeyman

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I don't think there is any chance we will rejoin for many years, but if we end up with No Deal I think we will end up with some deal eventually even if we have to wait for a change of Government.

The implications of no deal are horrific, and will rapidly create public outrage, as soon as people realise it's not "like it was in 1973". I think the government would be forced back to the negotiating table in weeks.
 

GusB

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The most significant issue in Brexit isn't the EU.
Er... Brexit is all about us exiting the EU. How on earth can you say that it isn't?!
It is Class. Not the old divide between the Aristocracy and Landed classes and the rest, but a new divide between a merchant and managerial technocratic upper middle class, that is much bigger than the old aristocracy and landed gentry were, and the rest.
Ah, so you'd rather go back to the "know your place" days where the peasants doffed their caps to the people who seemingly deserve their higher status due to birthright, rather than those who perhaps managed to get there by their own efforts. Never mind going back to the 1950s - we're going back to the 1750s here.
I think at the end of the day, its not about benefits, its about feeling.
Of course it is. That Great British Feeling of having conquered the World, stripping it of resources and putting down its native populations in the name of "empire". Dividing entire continents according to our own rules and totally disregarding the civic structures that existed before we decided they should be "civilised" according to our own views. The thing is, even back then when we had an empire it was entirely about benefits; the benefits to our own nation at the expense of other people around the world, many of whom still have to deal with the consequences of our desire to Rule the Waves.

Now we feel that it's our right to Waive the Rules and sod everyone else. I'm sorry to say this, but the days when our possessions were marked in pink on the globe are over. There's no going back. Britain is no longer as great as some of us would like to think. We're a small island at the western edge of the european continent and we need to accept that we are no longer the global power that we once were.

I really don't wish to derail the thread by mentioning Scottish independence, but
Besides, as I said, there is no benefits to Scottish Independence. And no Eu membership doesn't count unless Scotland wants a GB tarriff border/huge deficit reduction/pain of setting up own currency and bank and risking reduction of precious exports to England-yet Scottish Independence is currently supported by 56% of the Scottish electorate. And yet, English remainers often blow kisses and throw roses and Scottish seperatists when they display exactly what they loathe in Brexiteers. There is something inate inside people that makes them vote for things that economically will do harm but psychologically makes their lives more meaningful.
There are benefits. For a start, it gets us away from this constant nonsense about being "too wee, too poor and too stupid" to be able to govern our own affairs. Brexiters constantly bang on about Sovereignty while seeking to deny it to a part of the UK which has expressed its desire to have more autonomy. I heard it all during the 2014 Indyref campaign - how can they possibly exist without the rest of the UK? The answer is that we'll do just fine.

There is something inate inside people that makes them vote for things that economically will do harm but psychologically makes their lives more meaningful.

Isn't this what Brexit is all about? Yeah, we told those pesky foreigners that we didn't want freedom of movement, but despite the economic consequences we're happy to do stuff that hurts us economically in order to Take Back Control. If the Scots wish to make that sort of sacrifice, it's really no different to what you've been banging on about.
 

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