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Boosting off peak passenger numbers?

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Xavi

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Why not just have a sensibly priced super off-peak fare for every long distance flow ?
You could indeed go down that path although DfT / Treasury may frown at a universal National Railcard giving a further discount.

A balance between reducing the volume of fares, standardisation on all routes (of a type i.e. long-distance, regional, L&SE) and revenue optimisation will need to found. Something has to be tried and, IMO, waiting for GBR (if it ever happens) is just an excuse to do nothing.
 
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Bald Rick

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I don’t think a ‘national‘ railcard is likely to happen, at least not at a price that anyone here would be happy about.

What I think might happen is some sort of national loyalty scheme, based on spend. This might be an issue for open access (obviously) but I can see it happening.
 

yorksrob

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You could indeed go down that path although DfT / Treasury may frown at a universal National Railcard giving a further discount.

A balance between reducing the volume of fares, standardisation on all routes (of a type i.e. long-distance, regional, L&SE) and revenue optimisation will need to found. Something has to be tried and, IMO, waiting for GBR (if it ever happens) is just an excuse to do nothing.

I don’t think a ‘national‘ railcard is likely to happen, at least not at a price that anyone here would be happy about.

What I think might happen is some sort of national loyalty scheme, based on spend. This might be an issue for open access (obviously) but I can see it happening.

I didn't actually suggest a national railcard (on this occasion) although I would obviously approve. In its absense though, a network of super off-peak fares is a way of enabling sensibly priced longer distance travel.
 

JonathanH

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Why not just have a sensibly priced super off-peak fare for every long distance flow ?
I'm sure you wouldn't welcome the restrictions which might be journeys between midday and 3pm only, then after 8pm in the evening, seven days a week. Frankly that sort of thing is better done with book on the day advances.

The railway needs to manage loadings so that it doesn't gave to provide more capacity at times of the day when trains are already full. Advances, priced at a small discount to the regulated fare are the best way to do this.

The passenger numbers having returned to 85%, but revenue lagging behind, does suggest that the market could support a fairly sizable hike in off-peak fares. At a crude level if a 20% increase in off-peak fares only led to a 10% drop in custom, that would still lead to increased revenue.
 
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yorksrob

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I'm sure you wouldn't welcome the restrictions which might be journeys between midday and 3pm only, then after 8pm in the evening, seven days a week. Frankly that sort of thing is better done with book on the day advances.

Actually, when I used a super off peak to go to Cornwall (from Yorkshire) I found the restrictions reasonably easy to work around. Yes, it was more expensive than I usually pay, but the freedom to choose a route and break my journey at leisure was liberating.

Book on the day advances for "that sort of thing" might be better for you, but not necessarily everyone.
 

JonathanH

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Book on the day advances for "that sort of thing" might be better for you, but not necessarily everyone.
Better for the railway, not necessarily me.

Actually, when I used a super off peak to go to Cornwall (from Yorkshire) I found the restrictions reasonably easy to work around. Yes, it was more expensive than I usually pay, but the freedom to choose a route and break my journey at leisure was liberating.
I suspect you are referring to fares set by the East Coast operator, where the super-off-peak means something different (the same as off-peak returns elsewhere) from what it means, for example, on LNR services.
 

Xavi

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Albeit AIUI if you show up with an advance and want the train before/after, don’t you have to buy a whole new ticket and then claim a refund for the unused advance, which is more faff than crediting it towards a new ticket?
That would be the idea subject to availability on the preferred train and the passenger being happy with the additional payable / refund offered. It would be very much a digital system (making one QR code invalid and issuing another is simple) which is where the industry says it wants to go.

I first experienced something similar using the Southwest Airlines App in 2016 when I changed a Las Vegas to LA flight to San Francisco and got a refund for the difference.

I think we all agree on one thing: some ideas (probably better than those I’ve thrown into the mix) need to be tested, rather than persisting with the current complex mess!
 

yorksrob

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Better for the railway, not necessarily me.


I suspect you are referring to fares set by the East Coast operator, where the super-off-peak means something different (the same as off-peak returns elsewhere) from what it means, for example, on LNR services.

I think that they would have had an involvement in that one as I went via London.

There do seem to be similar, cheaper versions via the cross country route as well.
 

Hadders

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That bracket would need to be fulfilled by TOCs having the freedom to vary Advance fares and quotas.
TOCs would reduce the number of Advance fares and the number available at the cheapest tier if they were given the sort of freedom you desire.
 

JonathanH

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TOCs would reduce the number of Advance fares and the number available at the cheapest tier if they were given the sort of freedom you desire.
That has already happened and it doesn't appear to be reducing off-peak custom at the busy times. However, the removal of the cheapest tiers at less busy times does potentially seem to be leading to light loadings.
 

Hadders

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That has already happened and it doesn't appear to be reducing off-peak custom at the busy times. However, the removal of the cheapest tiers at less busy times does potentially seem to be leading to light loadings.
Which is why some form of fares regulation needs to be retained. The TOCs would love to abolish it but we should be very wary of any attempts to do so.
 

AM9

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I didn't actually suggest a national railcard (on this occasion) although I would obviously approve. In its absense though, a network of super off-peak fares is a way of enabling sensibly priced longer distance travel.
So long as those fares were subject to existing railcard discounts yes that's fine.
 

yorksrob

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Which is why some form of fares regulation needs to be retained. The TOCs would love to abolish it but we should be very wary of any attempts to do so.

Indeed. There needs to be more fares regulation otherwise anything beneficial to the passenger would continue to be whittled away.
 

Xavi

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TOCs would reduce the number of Advance fares and the number available at the cheapest tier if they were given the sort of freedom you desire.
No, you’ve missed the key point that TOCs would need total freedom to set price and volume. Under current contracts the only way to maximise profit is to maximise revenue. TOC private management understands discounted tickets have a role to play here (ask Lumo or Ryanair). DfT is hands-on at the moment and doesn’t get it at all - useless.
 

Hadders

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No, you’ve missed the key point that TOCs would need total freedom to set price and volume. Under current contracts the only way to maximise profit is to maximise revenue. TOC private management understands discounted tickets have a role to play here (ask Lumo or Ryanair). DfT is hands-on at the moment and doesn’t get it at all - useless.
I've not missed the point at all.

You cannot compare rail fares to the likes of Ryanair. They, and even Lumo, can choose to discontinue services at the drop of a hat if they aren't profitable. A rail franchise (run on behalf of the Government) cannot (and must not) be able to do that.

My fear is that at some point you end up with a train operating company that's a bit strapped for cash (happens pretty frequently, especially if they're coming towards the end of their contract). They then decide to cut the number of cheap advance tickets, none of it is at all transparent of course.

Let's look at London to Manchester. A passenger need never pay more than £98.10 return to travel at the weekend. The train companies would love to increase that but thanks to regulation they cannot. If they were able to increase the price we'd have all sorts of PR bluster about cheaper fares, and they would be some, but at inconvenient times like 05:30, 22:00 etc. The popular departures like 10:00 would become unaffordable.

Then there's the lack of flexibility with Advance tickets.
 

Xavi

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Indeed. There needs to be more fares regulation otherwise anything beneficial to the passenger would continue to be whittled away.
There would be full regulation under my proposal. Off-Peak fares have always been regulated and would continue to be so. Anytime fares would be brought under regulation by the maximum 50% uplift on an Off-Peak fare, and it would be mandatory for Advance fares to offer a reduction (you could say minimum 10%) over the cheapest walk-up fare on each service. You could introduce a minimum volume criteria for Advance fares too but leave the pricing (within the rules above) and additional volumes to TOCs.
 

yorksrob

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No, you’ve missed the key point that TOCs would need total freedom to set price and volume. Under current contracts the only way to maximise profit is to maximise revenue. TOC private management understands discounted tickets have a role to play here (ask Lumo or Ryanair). DfT is hands-on at the moment and doesn’t get it at all - useless.

There needs to be a country wide, reliable system of fares that aren't stupid money that the public can rely on. This can't be left to commercial freedom and needs to be regulated.

Around that, the train operator should have more freedom to offer what they want to get bums on seats.

IMO, the more regulated (and cheap for the passenger) the regulated structure is, the more freedom there should be for the operator with offers and AP. If on the other hand, walk-on fares are allowed to wither away through being priced out of the market, the remaining AP's need to be more heavily regulated to ensure there is a reliable offer to passengers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

There would be full regulation under my proposal. Off-Peak fares have always been regulated and would continue to be so. Anytime fares would be brought under regulation by the maximum 50% uplift on an Off-Peak fare, and it would be mandatory for Advance fares to offer a reduction (you could say minimum 10%) over the cheapest walk-up fare on each service. You could introduce a minimum volume criteria for Advance fares too but leave the pricing (within the rules above) and additional volumes to TOCs.

Those sound like sensible proposals. However, I would still say that what constitutes the super off peak fare in most cases for longer distance journeys, either needs to be retained and regulated, or needs to replace off-peak, as this represents the accessible fare for longer distance travel.
 

Xavi

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I've not missed the point at all.

You cannot compare rail fares to the likes of Ryanair. They, and even Lumo, can choose to discontinue services at the drop of a hat if they aren't profitable. A rail franchise (run on behalf of the Government) cannot (and must not) be able to do that.

My fear is that at some point you end up with a train operating company that's a bit strapped for cash (happens pretty frequently, especially if they're coming towards the end of their contract). They then decide to cut the number of cheap advance tickets, none of it is at all transparent of course.

Let's look at London to Manchester. A passenger need never pay more than £98.10 return to travel at the weekend. The train companies would love to increase that but thanks to regulation they cannot. If they were able to increase the price we'd have all sorts of PR bluster about cheaper fares, and they would be some, but at inconvenient times like 05:30, 22:00 etc. The popular departures like 10:00 would become unaffordable.

Then there's the lack of flexibility with Advance tickets.
Good point about volumes of advance fares - see my post above for a possible solution. However, why would a TOC cut the volume of Advance fares when such tickets maximise revenue? It’s the DfT that thinks discounted fares are bad despite all studies (rail and other transport) and experience proving yield management maximises revenue.

The point about Ryanair and Lumo is that without operating fares purely on the basis of revenue maximisation they wouldn’t exist in the first place. The rail industry (and DfT) should all be about revenue maximisation right now and the status quo is failing badly.

Have you read my post re how Advances should become more flexible, possibly offering the passenger savings when they switch train?

I believe a TOC could introduce Peak times at weekends, however, they choose not to.
 

Clarence Yard

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No, you’ve missed the key point that TOCs would need total freedom to set price and volume. Under current contracts the only way to maximise profit is to maximise revenue. TOC private management understands discounted tickets have a role to play here (ask Lumo or Ryanair). DfT is hands-on at the moment and doesn’t get it at all - useless.

Maximising revenue does not increase profit for operators. That ended in March 2020 when all franchises were effectively discontinued. The current contract arrangement for those TOCs is that they earn a fixed management fee and also a performance related management fee.
 

Xavi

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I would still say that what constitutes the super off peak fare in most cases for longer distance journeys, either needs to be retained and regulated, or needs to replace off-peak, as this represents the accessible fare for longer distance travel.
That would be my preference too, however, some of what I’ve considered leans towards getting DfT on board too, which almost certainly means nothing will change at all!
 

py_megapixel

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How does the railcard reward a regular customer. There is no prerequisite to purchase e.g. show proof of buying 5 tickets in the last 30 days. Once obtained the same fare if used 5 times or 200 over the validity period ?
The idea is that customers self-select. You price the railcard so that it only makes financial sense for the passenger if they make frequent journeys.

The regular customer ' reward ' traditionally is the season ticket or Carnet. Now there are flexible season tickets too.
Those only reward people who make the same journey regularly. Leisure travellers will do that to a massively lesser extent than commuters.
 

Xavi

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Maximising revenue does not increase profit for operators. That ended in March 2020 when all franchises were effectively discontinued. The current contract arrangement for those TOCs is that they earn a fixed management fee and also a performance related management fee.
Okay, I assumed some benefit from additional revenue earned would feature in the performance related management fees. Given the current need to increase revenue it’s certainly required and should be part of an addendum when (if ever!) a better fares structure is implemented.
 

yorksrob

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Indeed. Payment for whoever ends up running the passenger service needs to be performance related - not just in terms of running the advertised service, but also linked to generating additional passenger usage. I'd be surprised if such provisions weren't in the latest agreements but given DfT's recent track record perhaps not.
 

43066

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I think we all agree on one thing: some ideas (probably better than those I’ve thrown into the mix) need to be tested, rather than persisting with the current complex mess!

Completely agree it’s an overly complex mess! I’m just not sure any simplification will necessarily be along the lines that are seen on here as desirable. There have been recent threads about Avanti making cheap advances unavailable etc. in response to overcrowding.

The problem the industry is grappling with is the loss of season ticket revenue, but this won’t be addressed by making leisure travel cheaper/easier when it has already bounced back hard.

Good point about volumes of advance fares - see my post above for a possible solution. However, why would a TOC cut the volume of Advance fares when such tickets maximise revenue? It’s the DfT that thinks discounted fares are bad despite all studies (rail and other transport) and experience proving yield management maximises revenue.

I suppose the answer to that is that it makes sense to reduce cheap tickets if the same seats can be filled with people prepared to pay more. The DfT is primarily focussed on minimising subsidy so it follows they will be more in favour of a highly profitable railway than one that carries more people but costs them more.

I’m not saying I think that’s the right approach, but appears to be the way things are going.
 

kentrailman

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The issue with that is, why would anyone ever then buy anything other than an advance?!
I am probably an outlier but I tend to avoid advance tickets even if it means paying more, as I don't want to be allocated a seat. ( obviously seat allocation doesn't apply to all operators ) .
I prefer to choose where to sit and more importantly who or who not to sit near, particularly post covid when I often sit as far away as possible from people coughing and sniffling ! Paranoid maybe but there must be at least some others like me ?! ( e.g. women who don't want to be allocated a seat next to a man )
 

yorksrob

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Completely agree it’s an overly complex mess! I’m just not sure any simplification will necessarily be along the lines that are seen on here as desirable. There have been recent threads about Avanti making cheap advances unavailable etc. in response to overcrowding.

The problem the industry is grappling with is the loss of season ticket revenue, but this won’t be addressed by making leisure travel cheaper/easier when it has already bounced back hard.



I suppose the answer to that is that it makes sense to reduce cheap tickets if the same seats can be filled with people prepared to pay more. The DfT is primarily focussed on minimising subsidy so it follows they will be more in favour of a highly profitable railway than one that carries more people but costs them more.

I’m not saying I think that’s the right approach, but appears to be the way things are going.

Perhaps they need to bite the bullet and ditch peak fares so that business travel and some more discretionary commuting can bounce back harder.

Stupidly priced peak fares are the real outmoded concept.

The second bit is one of the reasons why there needs to be a change of Government
 

43066

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I might be an outlier but I tend to avoid advance tickets even if it means paying more, as I don't want to be allocated a seat. ( obviously seat allocation doesn't apply to all operators ) .
I prefer to choose where to sit and more importantly who or who not to sit near, particularly post covid when I often sit as far away as possible from people coughing and sniffling ! Paranoid maybe but there must be at least some others like me ?!

I’m exactly the same actually (albeit I’m in the fortunate position of not paying full price so don’t ever need to purchase advance tickets).

Obviously avoiding allocated seating is easier when travelling in Kent than in other areas :).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Perhaps they need to bite the bullet and ditch peak fares so that business travel and some more discretionary commuting can bounce back harder.

Stupidly priced peak fares are the real outmoded concept.

Careful… They might just decrease/eliminate peak fares and increase off peak fares across the board.
 

Trainbike46

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The passenger numbers having returned to 85%, but revenue lagging behind, does suggest that the market could support a fairly sizable hike in off-peak fares. At a crude level if a 20% increase in off-peak fares only led to a 10% drop in custom, that would still lead to increased revenue.
I don't think it does at all

Let's ask, why is revenue lagging behind?

My understanding is that it is because:
- Fewer anytime tickets sold to businesses
- Less passengers travelling first class
- More commuting outside of peak hours, less during peak hours
- More passengers are in the very price-concious leisure travel category - more people are travelling on advance tickets

How would any of those mean that the market could support a sizable hike in off-peak fares?
 

JonathanH

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- More passengers are in the very price-concious leisure travel category - more people are travelling on advance tickets

How would any of those mean that the market could support a sizable hike in off-peak fares?
That demand is likely to show some elasticity. People have reasons to travel.

A good number of them will still travel with fares hiked because the football matches still happen, they still have events to attend, family to see, shopping to do etc.

Yes, a 20% hike (or more) will put some people off but the number of people travelling wouldn't take that much of a hit and would buy some time on capacity.
 

Trainbike46

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Yes, a 20% hike (or more) will put some people off but the number of people travelling wouldn't take that much of a hit and would buy some time on capacity.
Do you have any evidence for this statement?


In addition, you didn't answer my question: How does the shift in ticket types sold, leading to revenue lagging behind, mean that the off-peak fares could be hiked?
 
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