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Boosting off peak passenger numbers?
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I’m exactly the same actually (albeit I’m in the fortunate position of not paying full price so don’t ever need to purchase advance tickets).
Obviously avoiding allocated seating is easier when travelling in Kent than in other areas.
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Careful… They might just decrease/eliminate peak fares and increase off peak fares across the board.
That would be a mistake IMO as off peak fares are already around the limit of what the majority of people will pay. The leisure market hasn't suddenly become more well off and able to pay higher fares (quite the opposite infact).
It's the premium market of expense account business travellers that has evaporated. Really the most efficient way to increase revenue would seem to be to reallocate some of the space formerly taken by the expense account lot, to the leisure travellers who are willing to pay something.
py_megapixel
Established Member
I do wonder if the government might now be regretting spending all that money on massive fleets for London services rather than spreading the investment more evenly across the country. If higher quality stock was used on Northern and GWR local services, for example, then comfort might be a selling point of rail and then the high fares would be justified. It's hard to argue that a rattly, noisy Sprinter with a refurbishment done on the cheap is especially comfortable though.
The sad thing is that any sensible Government (obviously not this lot) would be able to see beyond the partial decrease in revenue and see that increasing numbers of rail passengers contributes to a number of Government objectives:
-Enabling people to move around producing lower carbon emissions
-Enabling people to move around and generate economic activity
-Enabling people to spend the money created with quantitive easing on a product whose value is mostly sourced nationally, thereby reducing imported inflation.
-Regulated train fares can actually contribute to a reduction/control of potential inflation as part of the national basket of goods and services.
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The bigger rolling stock sin is in allowing servicable rolling stock to be scrapped willy-nilly removing less expensive ways to increase capacity - mk4's, 153's, 455's etc.
-Enabling people to move around producing lower carbon emissions
-Enabling people to move around and generate economic activity
-Enabling people to spend the money created with quantitive easing on a product whose value is mostly sourced nationally, thereby reducing imported inflation.
-Regulated train fares can actually contribute to a reduction/control of potential inflation as part of the national basket of goods and services.
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The bigger rolling stock sin is in allowing servicable rolling stock to be scrapped willy-nilly removing less expensive ways to increase capacity - mk4's, 153's, 455's etc.
Whilst I don’t like to pick you up on matter of fares, the correct ending to this sentence would be ‘for many people’.
If this was done, and the revenue management was done well, those trains would be departing full of people who could afford to pay the higher fare. Just like Saturday morning at half term easyJet flights London to Geneva are averaging £500 one way, but they will be full despite the average price for the previous weekend being a tenth of the price.
Whilst regret is probably the wrong word, the first half of the quote is correct. The second half, less so. I suspect it would rather have saved the money.
If trains are full it isn't just because the fares are affordable. Some people are placing value on being able to get to their destination for an event. Essentially some of those would travel whatever the cost (within reason). If the railway were to price journeys according to perceived demand, revenue would increase.
For example, why does Greater Anglia allow super off-peak day returns when West Ham are playing at the London Stadium? They could generate more revenue of they were blocked on such days. For a while First Great Western caught onto this by having groupsave barred days whenever there were major events on. The railway could make a lot more money pricing up fares when there is a reason for people to travel.
In the same bracket might be 'surge pricing' on Oyster and Contactless. The opportunities exist for the railway to generate a much higher yield at off peak times and potentially spread loadings.
Boosting off peak passenger numbers is more expensive for the operators than charging the existing passengers more.
Kite159
Veteran Member
Don't give them any ideas for surge pricing, as it will only work one way (with any periods of 'negative' surge where fares will be less being at times where nobody travels, the 5am train which calls at every grannys front door along the way and gets overtaken by the train an hour later)
"We see there has been a big event at Wembley, therefore for the next 2 hours after it ends, all oyster fares from Wembley Park, Wembley Central & Wembley Stadium will be tripled to try and spread loading"
Or for long distance routes:
"Ah it's Easter Monday and demand is high for Scotland - London services today, we will charge £200+ if you want a ticket for trains between89am & 6pm to try and encourage use outside those times"
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As for my route, SWR have reduced the number of cheaper advance fares (£8/£9 to London), instead the entry level is ~ £19, even at times when a railcard discounted super off-peak single is cheaper.
py_megapixel
Established Member
They can't keep the Sprinters going forever, just as they couldn't keep the other Mark 3 fleets going forever. Besides, a big fleet of reasonably comfortable regional trains is something Northern could reasonably be quite proud of and use in their advertising and so forth to really reinforce the message that the train is the comfortable way to travel. I'd hope this would have some effect on passenger numbers.
The Pacers were something of a scapegoat. "We're doing Pacer replacement [at long last]" largely allowed the government to claim they were "levelling up" the North's railway while still leaving Northern with one of the oldest fleets and several half-finished infrastructure projects.
But that’s exactly the point. It’s how the airlines work. And it’s why you get people standing from London to Edinburgh on Thursdays and Fridays.
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I quite agree, but they can keep going for a few more years.
py_megapixel
Established Member
No thanks. We don't need the railway ticketing system to be even more customer-unfriendly and confusing to navigate than it already is. Unfortunately rail has to compete with the car, and the car doesn't have a wildly varying cost depending on when you want to travel.
But which is more beneficial to society/the economy? Fleecing loyal customers or encouraging new people to give rail a try?
I'd like it to use the existing load-spreading mechanisms properly - Advances, and perhaps tweaking the validity of Off-Peak fares - before it does that.
If it does, then it should only apply in London. You can see in the published figures that the city's system is very often only in the 70-80% range of normal.
The following table demonstrates why this has such a devastating impact on overall UK revenue:
| City/region | 2019-2020 passenger journeys starting or ending in area |
| London | 1,069,920,000 |
| Liverpool | 105,646,000 |
| West Midlands | 104,984,000 |
| Manchester | 66,920,000 |
| West Yorkshire | 59,521,000 |
| South Yorkshire | 12,709,000 |
Peak travel vs Off-peak is - as far as the UK is concerned - a complete red herring. London lagging 10% is the equivalent of the country going without funding for almost the entire value of the next biggest passenger carrying area.
The cost of its infrastructure is even more enormous than the black hole it's leaving in the country's finances.
That the whole country will have higher fares to subsidise London's recovery is likely the reason DfT doesn't like to explain why revenue is hit vs passenger numbers. But it's simple maths!
That is interesting analysis. One thing I note when the July RPI was announced and the suggestion was made that train fares may increase below RPI in March 2023 was that TfL fares were not going to be held to a lower increase. (Of course, TfL fares were frozen for a number of years, but London and the South East is a place where off-peak fares could be increased or standardised at the levels on the higher priced routes, particularly in conjunction with the 2024 extension of PAYG.)
None but instead of discounts, how about taking the airline book and introducing incentives…
Spend X get Y.
Spend X on off peak fares, get off peak incentive Y.
the obvious one would be Y = First class upgrade.
even business savvy travellers will steer towards that perk.
If I was looking to increase revenue that's definitely where I would focus. Increasing costs around the country will only suppress their own recovery, whereas a £1 increase in London is equivalent to £8 gained elsewhere due to the volume of passengers involved.
It's a shame the city/region stats don't break down a bit further. I think it would be very insightful in any upcoming stats for 2022 as to where is doing well and where isn't. We know that London is a laggard, but I reckon two in that list are going to be over 100%. And I think one, or maybe two, may have tanked.
Why does the railway have to have airline style pricing?
Is it desirable for popular trains to only be available to people who can afford to pay higher fares?
oh I’m not saying it is desirable, only that it is a possible outcome.
It used too..
it was airlines that copied railways afterall.
Offpeak, 3,7 day apex fare, 14 day super apex etc.
before covid there was a myriad of discount fares, theyve all gone, the same way as the passengers did. Bringing back discount fares would bring back discount passengers imo.
However my thoughts is more around a frequent traveller program that rewards spend, with perks… even mcDonalds, starbucks etc has figured this one out as a way to recognise loyalty.
Railways has always had a mentality of being an essential service, post covid its struggling to recognise its essential nature has waned some what. Because it took passengers for granted it didnt need to care about loyalty… maybe its time the industry recognised it needs its passengers, rather than constantly chicaning them.
its competitor is the car and internet. As many cars were sold in covid in 2020/2021 its at least 3 years before people start to consider an upgrade.
The internet is a hard one to beat, when I go up the M40, thetraffic post covid is a magnitude less “company cars” than it used to be. Maybe corporate rail ticket plans is away through this, afterall the competitor is zoom and if railfare works out better than a company car it may find a middle ground.
To get more bums on train seats it has to be more attractive than alternatives.
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I think one idea would be to have rail companies advertise their Rover tickets (if they have them) more. For example, i think that the Southern daysaver rover ticket is a brilliant ticket as it can allow me to get on and off anywhere on their network in the same way a London travelcard works. Its cheap at £22 per person and anymore than 2 and up to 4 people can travel on the ticket for £45.
The problems are with it is that if it weren't for an old Geoff Marshall video on the topic i would have had no idea it existed, and secondly it has a frustrating rule that you have to wait up to 3 days in advance before you can use it even though you have the collection code right there with you right after purchasing it.
This is a real shame as such a ticket plays into ideas of being more spontaneous with train travel as if your bored with one location you can go somewhere else on the Southern network and there are plenty of locations such as the coast, historical cities, National parks, etc to choose from. But yet they haven't done any real promotions for this ticket type.
The problems are with it is that if it weren't for an old Geoff Marshall video on the topic i would have had no idea it existed, and secondly it has a frustrating rule that you have to wait up to 3 days in advance before you can use it even though you have the collection code right there with you right after purchasing it.
This is a real shame as such a ticket plays into ideas of being more spontaneous with train travel as if your bored with one location you can go somewhere else on the Southern network and there are plenty of locations such as the coast, historical cities, National parks, etc to choose from. But yet they haven't done any real promotions for this ticket type.
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