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Avanti West Coast timetable

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Bletchleyite

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Clockface on the north Wales coast …. dream on!

It's actually the Avanti services that get in the way of it. Otherwise the service pattern is dead simple - one Holyhead-Chester-wherever and one Llandudno-Manchester, soon (supposedly) to change to Holyhead-Chester-*, Bangor-Manchester and Llandudno-Liverpool. Making that clockface would be dead easy, and it has been (or close to it) in the past.
 
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47827

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I suppose long term there is the question of whether there is much point in the direct London-Chester/Holyheads once HS2 makes Crewe-London much quicker. Perhaps more useful than the existing infrequent service would be a planned hourly clockface connection from a North Wales Coast to Birmingham via Crewe direct (as there used to be) to/from an HS2 service.

Very true with demand on through London links, although it will probably be guided by how much remaining revenue can be retained from those who make intermediate journeys not served by HS2 as well as people who want through trains at an affordable fare (which HS2 won't be for everyone remotely). Think frequencies will go down on many routes and it'll be potentially back to 3 or 4 trains a day maximum with a handful of Crewe terminators if they are responsible to keep a certain service level on the coast plus have staff and stock to do so (rather like the indefinitely extended covid timetables).
 

Nicholas Lewis

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DofT will be hoping that Hitachi don't deliver the 805's anytime soon as that will be another cost to hit the bottom line given a fair pendos will be sitting idle now.
 

Greybeard33

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Another operator running a nigh on 100% of planned service this week despite us being at the worst point in the pandemic forced to cull services from next week when in all likelihood by the following week restrictions will be removed and WFH guidance dialled back or pulled doesn't seem the right response to me. This will discourage passengers especially if overcrowding.
There was an Avanti representative in the GMCA Metrolink and Rail Services Subcommittee meeting this morning. He explained that the reduced timetable is being introduced because of the high level of Omicron staff absence, which has been causing short notice cancellations. The cuts will enable a reliable service. He also said that Avanti patronage this month has dropped to only 40-45% of the pre-pandemic level, compared with 65-70% in December, so they are confident there will be sufficient capacity. Where possible, they will look to put on additional services for special events (e.g. football matches). Although the reduced timetable is expected to be in place until 25 February, Avanti will review it week by week.

See webcast below, from 53:45:
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There was an Avanti representative in the GMCA Metrolink and Rail Services Subcommittee meeting this morning. He explained that the reduced timetable is being introduced because of the high level of Omicron staff absence, which has been causing short notice cancellations. The cuts will enable a reliable service. He also said that Avanti patronage this month has dropped to only 40-45% of the pre-pandemic level, compared with 65-70% in December, so they are confident there will be sufficient capacity. Where possible, they will look to put on additional services for special events (e.g. football matches). Although the reduced timetable is expected to be in place until 25 February, Avanti will review it week by week.

See webcast below, from 53:45:
They've cancelled very few services this week from EUS so far this week but maybe thats because staff are back covering which isn't sustainable. That said its pretty evident that SWR whose reduce service comes in next week as they've been more than able to deliver nigh on 100% everyday. The risk here is DofT won't let them increase services until they are convinced people are travelling some might say thats smart but if you want to get passengers back they need to be incentivised by a reasonable frequency of service.
 

Greybeard33

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They've cancelled very few services this week from EUS so far this week but maybe thats because staff are back covering which isn't sustainable. That said its pretty evident that SWR whose reduce service comes in next week as they've been more than able to deliver nigh on 100% everyday. The risk here is DofT won't let them increase services until they are convinced people are travelling some might say thats smart but if you want to get passengers back they need to be incentivised by a reasonable frequency of service.
Avanti said that the 25 Feb end date for the reduced timetable had been chosen because there were "rumblings" that the WFH guidance would be rescinded from that date, so patronage was expected to recover. Presumably the "rumblings" came from the direction of the DfT.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Avanti said that the 25 Feb end date for the reduced timetable had been chosen because there were "rumblings" that the WFH guidance would be rescinded from that date, so patronage was expected to recover. Presumably the "rumblings" came from the direction of the DfT.
I suspect that probably was view before Xmas given the modellers view of how Omicron would play out but as we can see an improved outcome is looking more probably now so that guidance may get rescinded well before then. I suspect DofT won't get told much earlier than joe public as they seem to be reacting to the situation at the moment and making changes at a few days notice. One would hope operators are pushing DofT to be allowed to have a recovery timetable ready to go as fast as they can resource it so they are prepared.
 

47827

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I suspect that probably was view before Xmas given the modellers view of how Omicron would play out but as we can see an improved outcome is looking more probably now so that guidance may get rescinded well before then. I suspect DofT won't get told much earlier than joe public as they seem to be reacting to the situation at the moment and making changes at a few days notice. One would hope operators are pushing DofT to be allowed to have a recovery timetable ready to go as fast as they can resource it so they are prepared.

Imagine they will look at absences over the remainder of January plus whether loadings increase before reinstating the mid December version.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Imagine they will look at absences over the remainder of January plus whether loadings increase before reinstating the mid December version.
Telegraph headline tomorrow indicating that restrictions won't be extended on 26th Jan and WFH guidance will be dropped as well. Will DofT get ahead of the curve or wait for overcrowding to occur before conceding reinstatingl trains.

1642202567073.png
 

Bald Rick

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Telegraph headline tomorrow indicating that restrictions won't be extended on 26th Jan and WFH guidance will be dropped as well. Will DofT get ahead of the curve or wait for overcrowding to occur before conceding reinstatingl trains.

There’s usually at least a three week lead time before making any major changes.

Besides, plenty of operators still have significant crew shortages.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There’s usually at least a three week lead time before making any major changes.

Besides, plenty of operators still have significant crew shortages.
AWT ran nigh on 99% of the planned schedule yesterday so presumably train crew are doing a lot of voluntary shifts which isn't sustainable.

Anyhow I get there is a lead time to make changes but if intention is to rescind WFH guidance I would hope that operators are tasked to reinstate services in a progressive manner at least, so they don't over commit, such that Dec 21 timetable is restored. I fear though this won't be the case and many of these reductions will now become permanent for sometime and it will take only a sustained level of demand to get DofT to accede to running more services. Risk of course is how much demand is driven by frequency and how comfortable your journey experience vs creating that environment in the first place to incentivise choosing rail.

Makes for interesting times if nothing else!
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Hopefully the reduction of the isolation period from 7 days to 5 days will help.
It will but if your managing train crew you can't rely upon staff having two negative LFT tests on day 4 & 5 so at best will only provide additional spare resources. What would be more interesting to know is what level of train vacancy levels they are working to as the service provision next week suggests it must be 30-40% which is way beyond reality of the current situation.

I maintain this is being used by DofT driven by HMT to save money which is understandable with lower fare revenue but in the long run they will undermine the earning potential of the TOCs if they don't react quickly enough hence my proposal taht they should have a plan in place now to progressively restore services.
 

philosopher

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Anyhow I get there is a lead time to make changes but if intention is to rescind WFH guidance I would hope that operators are tasked to reinstate services in a progressive manner at least, so they don't over commit, such that Dec 21 timetable is restored. I fear though this won't be the case and many of these reductions will now become permanent for sometime and it will take only a sustained level of demand to get DofT to accede to running more services. Risk of course is how much demand is driven by frequency and how comfortable your journey experience vs creating that environment in the first place to incentivise choosing rail.

Makes for interesting times if nothing else!
It does risk becoming a self fulling prophecy, fewer trains results in more people making fewer journeys or giving up on the railways for good, meaning demand never recovers, hence the reductions become permanent.

Of course, this could be what the DfT and / or Treasury want.
 

Bald Rick

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AWT ran nigh on 99% of the planned schedule yesterday so presumably train crew are doing a lot of voluntary shifts which isn't sustainable.

Friday perhaps, but not Saturday. Both my trains were cancelled due to lack of traincrew!
 

The Bear

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Anybody seen anything regarding December 2022 WCML timetable consultation or a proposed timetable?

I thought they would have started the consultation process by now.....
 

James90012

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Looks like it was planned last year with this webpage presumably live in error:


Key points here in case it disappears:

  • A phased introduction of additional Liverpool services as demand requires.
  • Hourly calls at Liverpool South Parkway.
  • Enhanced service levels at Trent Valley stations including Nuneaton, Tamworth and Lichfield Trent Valley.
  • Improved connectivity between stations across the routes through changes to calling patterns.
  • Additional calls at Rugby and Stafford.
  • Faster end-to-end journey times between London Euston and Birmingham
 

Geezertronic

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I've noticed that my usual train from Birmingham International to London Euston is now not running - the 0640 - so I have to catch the 0630 LNWR train and change at Rugby onto the 0659 Avanti train ex Lancaster to still reach Euston at the same time. Quite bad form that the morning Birmingham direct Avanti services are only now at 0618 and 0721 for me to reach Euston before 0900. The return leg tomorrow will be fun :( (Anytime Return so no fixed train)
 

Bletchleyite

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I've noticed that my usual train from Birmingham International to London Euston is now not running - the 0640 - so I have to catch the 0630 LNWR train and change at Rugby onto the 0659 Avanti train ex Lancaster to still reach Euston at the same time. Quite bad form that the morning Birmingham direct Avanti services are only now at 0618 and 0721 for me to reach Euston before 0900. The return leg tomorrow will be fun :( (Anytime Return so no fixed train)

I very much doubt there is much call to commute to London from Birmingham at the moment. Most such people (in so far as they exist) will be in high value office jobs due to the high cost, and they are presently mostly home working.
 

Geezertronic

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I very much doubt there is much call to commute to London from Birmingham at the moment. Most such people (in so far as they exist) will be in high value office jobs due to the high cost, and they are presently mostly home working.

But for those of us who do have to travel, there are not many options based on the new timetable vs the pre-COVID & previous timetables. The "via Birmingham" trains such as Blackpool and Edinburgh are often busier. Luckily I like to sit in the coach furthest away from Euston (train formation permitting) as that particular coach is not usually rammed. Be interesting to see tomorrow if the Lancaster train is busy or not.
 

Grumpy Git

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I'm currently heading towards Birmingham on a LNW service from Liverpool and have noticed a significant amount of northbound Pendolino traffic south of Stafford. I don't recall ever seeing any on previous trips.

Have Avanti re-routed any northbound services via Birmingham?
 

frodshamfella

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Liverpool has never exceeded hourly. Just a few business extras. More likely the majority of the Chester starters will not resume if medium term cuts are mooted and Holyhead will not get its full London service back, which is a great shame as most of them were viable Chester to London services with a varying seasonal/time of day levels of demand West of there. In effect Liverpool never got 2 trains an hour because the Wirral has always made up a big chunk the Merseyside to Euston market on the leg off Lime Street at least but they still got away with hourly services off Lime St due to new Chester/Coast starters taking up enough of the passengers that used to use Liverpool when that went hourly. Of course, for nearly 2 years now Avanti has got away with service levels going worse than BR/early Virgin days off Chester to London because most of the Liverpool to London trains haven't been as full as they should have been.
I've always found the Lime St to Euston service very busy, I get on at Runcorn. Avanti were promising 2 per hour. The second service I believe was to call at South Parkway, but maybe not Runcorn.
 

dk1

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I've always found the Lime St to Euston service very busy, I get on at Runcorn. Avanti were promising 2 per hour. The second service I believe was to call at South Parkway, but maybe not Runcorn.
Still the plan with class 807s.
 

dk1

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That would be marvelous and save me no end of time. When is this scheduled please?
I don’t think there’s any particular timescale as these things tend to slip. Once the first of the fleet are built & testing/commissioning starts on the WCML then perhaps more information will be released.
 

Bald Rick

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I'm currently heading towards Birmingham on a LNW service from Liverpool and have noticed a significant amount of northbound Pendolino traffic south of Stafford. I don't recall ever seeing any on previous trips.

Have Avanti re-routed any northbound services via Birmingham?

Nothing rerouted.

RTT suggests you went past only one, just south of Wolverhampton.
 

Grumpy Git

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Nothing rerouted.

RTT suggests you went past only one, just south of Wolverhampton.

OK, how odd. I could have sworn there were at least a couple. I must have been mistaken I suppose.

Why would I have never seen them before (going in the opposite direction) on this stretch of line?
 

seagull

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Have a feeling that service used to be a 10-coach (2x) Voyager, might be why?
 

Bald Rick

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OK, how odd. I could have sworn there were at least a couple. I must have been mistaken I suppose.

Why would I have never seen them before (going in the opposite direction) on this stretch of line?

Timing perhaps. The hourly services to Edinburgh / Glasgow have been going that way for about a decade.
 

172101

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There was an Avanti representative in the GMCA Metrolink and Rail Services Subcommittee meeting this morning. He explained that the reduced timetable is being introduced because of the high level of Omicron staff absence, which has been causing short notice cancellations. The cuts will enable a reliable service. He also said that Avanti patronage this month has dropped to only 40-45% of the pre-pandemic level, compared with 65-70% in December, so they are confident there will be sufficient capacity. Where possible, they will look to put on additional services for special events (e.g. football matches). Although the reduced timetable is expected to be in place until 25 February, Avanti will review it week by week.

See webcast below, from 53:45:
1A32 1215 MAN-EUS CAPE today due to 2 unit failures.
That means a gap of 80 minutes southbound.
So much for Avanti saying they will have extra drivers and stock to run a more reliable service!
 
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