Avanti in crisis talks to consider OLR

[Carlisle]

Appointing any MD who struggles with some aspects of the job and then blames the staff is worthy of a few questions. Appointing an intelligent idiot, such as the previous MD at TPE, is also questionable. If Avanti does go OLR, those questions will be asked of FG, by their shareholders.

Going by your version of an ideal boss, it’s baffling how characters like Michael O’Leary have achieved any success at all

 

[Bletchleyite]

So Avanti are allegedly packing it in? Doesn't surprise me and I doubt it'll be the first First TOC this year, looking at the way TPE is.

First have just turned a bid away for undervaluing the company...perhaps if they got shut of the two troublesome TOCs it might be better valued!

OLR Northern has been a mixed bag. Things seem slightly better, although I've seen more cancellations than under Arriva. They've also done some Arriva-esque things, such as ordering hybrid 195s instead of bi-mode 331s.

One positive thing I've noticed re 195s is that they've permanently binned Northern Connect and are increasingly using them on urban stopping services where the high acceleration and low emissions bring the most benefit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Aug 2022 ==

Going by your version of an ideal boss, it’s baffling how characters like Michael O’Leary have achieved any success at all

I believe MOL pays pilots quite well, whereas cabin crew can be got cheap from abroad, and it carries a cachet that allow it to be paid very poorly with very poor conditions compared with other jobs yet still get people.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have read that Labour has Contacted Grant whatever and has asked for the complete restoration of the timetable or the stripping of avantis franchise?
Wish they'd do the same for Thameslink but we all live in a conservative area so we have to sit tight and watch our area get considerably worse

It was the Labour Mayors (Andy Burnham for Greater Manchester and Sadiq Khan for London) who asked Shapps to act.
They have no idea (or pretend not to know) of the longer-term resource and IR issues at Avanti.

Trenitalia (FS Group) will be furious if Avanti loses the ICWC National Rail contract including the HS2 aspects (was expected to be for 10 years).
DfT could always negotiate with FS to partner with "OLR" instead, just dumping the First Group element.
If FS are also removed, you can be sure they will ditch c2c, which they only invested in to get the Avanti franchise.

If nothing else, Avanti's performance weakens their hand in the negotiations for the new contract.
Whether DfT wants to terminate Avanti is a moot point.
I doubt they wanted such a large and important chunk of the railway to go unstable, but maybe the timing is just right to get the ECML and WCML intercity operations on the same commercial footing for GBR.

Arriva's Northern franchise was terminated and handed over to OLR primarily because it was financially unsustainable, not for performance issues.

 

[Clarence Yard]

According to Avanti, it’s normal practice for the OLR to be involved in these meetings incase there’s a disagreement and one party doesn’t wish to continue. When that happens the OLR will step in.

Which is what I said upthread.

OLR are always involved in the NRC process, just in case the negotiations fail. This just may another one of those, nothing special to see at all.

If it does goes OLR, that’s it. Neither of the current owners can then take it on solo without it going out to competitive tender.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There is no management fee with OLRs as well as no profit or performance fees.

But there is such a contract with SNC Lavalin who provide the OLR consultancy services to DfT.
You don't get high-powered technical management for peanuts.

 

[Efini92]

Which is what I said upthread.

OLR are always involved in the NRC process, just in case the negotiations fail. This just may another one of those, nothing special to see at all.

If it does goes OLR, that’s it. Neither of the current owners can then take it on solo without it going out to competitive tender.

Sorry I only tuned in on page 4.

 

[Clarence Yard]

No worries, the discussion has been fizzing off in several directions!

The one thing in favour of the existing owners is the political issue of yet another TOC going OLR. That’s something the Government might seek to avoid at all costs.

But if the DfT try to push their luck and extract extra value for that new NRC, the current owners may just tell them to shove it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But there is such a contract with SNC Lavalin who provide the OLR consultancy services to DfT.
You don't get high-powered technical management for peanuts.

Thats not a management fee charged as a % of the cost base though thats operating costs but i get your point that its not in house employees.

 

[John Luxton]

If LMS comes back, then we have all 4 back, right?

LNER
GWR
LMS
Southern

I didn't include the current southern trains as quite a lot of the former SR is South Western Railway

 

[yorksrob]

What improvements? I don't call removing services from timetables and then increasing capacity on the remaining services an improvement!

To be fair, apart from the missing services (such as Castleford - Huddersfield), Northern now seems to be one of the most reliable operators I use.

Shame they managed to degrade most of the 158 interiors though.

 

[Facing Back]

Ooh, the people of Holyhead will be having words with you...

On a more serious note, the latter would be an obvious choice, fi not for the charter company of a similar name.

lol both of them? What is more West Coast than Holyhead?

 

[Trainbike46]

lol both of them? What is more West Coast than Holyhead?

I suspect it was more related to the Bangor, Manchester and Southern Railway name

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I suspect it was more related to the Bangor, Manchester and Southern Railway name

Was not the original name the Chester and Holyhead Railway?

 

[krus_aragon]

Was not the original name the Chester and Holyhead Railway?

Indeed, but the BM&SR was Trainbike46's humorous suggestion at a replacement name for Avanti.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Indeed, but the BM&SR was Trainbike46's humorous suggestion at a replacement name for Avanti.

Does Avanti sound either Welsh or English? I have a personal view as to what European language it reminds me of.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does Avanti sound either Welsh or English? I have a personal view as to what European language it reminds me of.

It's supposed to be Italian, as is the colour scheme (ish).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It's supposed to be Italian, as is the colour scheme (ish).

Whilst on that matter, the word Pendolino did not sit well in a British situation to my way of thinking.

You see model types of cars carrying strange names, such as Vauxhall Astra.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whilst on that matter, the word Pendolino did not sit well in a British situation to my way of thinking.

You see model types of cars carrying strange names, such as Vauxhall Astra.

Astra is Latin! As for that matter is Nova (despite it having an amusing Spanish translation, hence why they chose the Corsa for that model when they standardised Vauxhall and Opel).

 

[irish_rail]

Surely stripping First of the franchise will just be counter productive. Fire the bloke who accused the staff of breaking the law , get a decent replacement in and move on.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely stripping First of the franchise will just be counter productive. Fire the bloke who accused the staff of breaking the law , get a decent replacement in and move on.

I take that and raise you SWR and TPE. Only GWR seems to be doing OK at present, which is a combination of investment and Hopwood being a good (though not perfect) manager.

 

[Trackman]

We’re unlikely to notice a difference. They’ll slap some paint the same colour as the bodyside underneath over “Avanti” and we’ll be left with “West Coast”

Is it confirmed that Avanti may go to the OLR, or is this Speculative? If so, you might want to consider asking the mods to move the thread

It would be full circle then, BR branded it as West Coast before VT took over.
---
All I've heard/read in recent days is calls for Avanti to be booted out, not like Avanti throwing the towel in which I think the OP was suggesting.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

I take that and raise you SWR and TPE. Only GWR seems to be doing OK at present, which is a combination of investment and Hopwood being a good (though not perfect) manager.

What’s going wrong at SWR? Seems to deliver the timetable/capacity metrics/costs as dictated by its funder the DfT quite well?

 

[Bletchleyite]

What’s going wrong at SWR? Seems to deliver the timetable/capacity metrics/costs as dictated by its funder the DfT quite well?

It's currently failing to get a fleet of trains into service, though I suppose that's more Alstom's fault.

It also wasted a fortune on 442s it never ended up using.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

It's currently failing to get a fleet of trains into service, though I suppose that's more Alstom's fault.

It also wasted a fortune on 442s it never ended up using.

It did end up using 442s however the pandemic stuck the nail in the coffin as they were no longer required in the medium term.

The new fleet issues are well documented however that is not stopping the TOC delivering its National Rail Contract commitments and unlike many TOCs is not struggling with traincrew related cancellations so is there really a problem?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

It's currently failing to get a fleet of trains into service, though I suppose that's more Alstom's fault.

It also wasted a fortune on 442s it never ended up using.

Bombardier’s strictly speaking. The faults were all there before the takeover.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It would be full circle then, BR branded it as West Coast before VT took over.

It still is West Coast in formal TOC ownership terms, either Intercity West Coast (ICWC) or West Coast Partnership (with HS2 operation in its sights) in its current guise.
The public names (Virgin Trains and Avanti) were just the branding chosen by the franchise owners.

 

[wilbers]

Andy Burnham talking about this on Newsnight now.

 

[krus_aragon]

Andy Burnham talking about this on Newsnight now.

Talking about the OLR option, or about Avanti's woes in general?

 

[Clarence Yard]

Andy Burnham wasn’t coming over as well as he ought to and he still thinks Avanti is a franchise! He doesn’t or won’t realise that the DfT signs off your timetable these days, even the emergency ones that he was complaining about. He could have skewered Shapps if he had said that he didn’t even know what his staff were agreeing to.

If you step back and look at all the DfT TOCs, the ones in trouble are the ones who were short of resources prior to COVID and whose recruitment and training has been badly affected since, partly due to COVID and partly due to the ongoing DfT cost controls and/or the TOC management.

TOCs like LNER or GWR, who received a boost to resources prior to the shutters coming down in March 2020 (in the case of the latter TOC, the current MD of TPE playing a big part in getting the extra staff authorised by the DfT) are in a relatively good position. You can have the best MD in the world but if your DfT minder is controlling the purse strings tightly, it is very hard to turn it round, as TPE has found out.

The “new” DfT 5 year business plan process (In BR days we used to call it “RailPlan”!) has also thrown up the need for TOCs to provide to the DfT a list of items that, to save money to meet a target, could be cut. On their own list, SWR had the 442 units and the DfT said yes, get rid. And that is what SWR did.

At the moment most TOCs are meeting their NRC commitments, even though their service may be inferior to that run pre-COVID, because of the DfT signing off those reduced timetables. Where it gets tricky for Avanti is their inability to even run those reduced timetables and the timing of their NRC award. That puts them deep into the danger zone of a decision being made for political expediency, if nothing else.

 

[WizCastro197]

Andy Burnham wasn’t coming over as well as he ought to and he still thinks Avanti is a franchise! He doesn’t or won’t realise that the DfT signs off your timetable these days, even the emergency ones that he was complaining about. He could have skewered Shapps if he had said that he didn’t even know what his staff were agreeing to.

If you step back and look at all the DfT TOCs, the ones in trouble are the ones who were short of resources prior to COVID and whose recruitment and training has been badly affected since, partly due to COVID and partly due to the ongoing DfT cost controls and/or the TOC management.

TOCs like LNER or GWR, who received a boost to resources prior to the shutters coming down in March 2020 (in the case of the latter TOC, the current MD of TPE playing a big part in getting the extra staff authorised by the DfT) are in a relatively good position. You can have the best MD in the world but if your DfT minder is controlling the purse strings tightly, it is very hard to turn it round, as TPE has found out.

The “new” DfT 5 year business plan process (In BR days we used to call it “RailPlan”!) has also thrown up the need for TOCs to provide to the DfT a list of items that, to save money to meet a target, could be cut. On their own list, SWR had the 442 units and the DfT said yes, get rid. And that is what SWR did.

At the moment most TOCs are meeting their NRC commitments, even though their service may be inferior to that run pre-COVID, because of the DfT signing off those reduced timetables. Where it gets tricky for Avanti is their inability to even run those reduced timetables and the timing of their NRC award. That puts them deep into the danger zone of a decision being made for political expediency, if nothing else.

Isn’t Avanti Still a franchise though? Until it expires and then the “New Contract Award” gets sent considering that Avanti does not go enter an OLR? Can’t expect someone who’s main job is to level up Manchester and Generally make it a better place to know what is franchised and what is not. But I’ve thought the Abolishment of Franchise happened when each franchise expired then they enter a new contract based agreement where on as you mentioned DfT decides Timetable (Thought they already do decide timetable without the abolishment of the franchising system) and so on (funding)

Please correct me if I’m wrong. I don’t really know too much about the new franchising end or now system as usual as shapps has messed that up too…