Aberystwyth to London

[the-gog]

From a friend of mine, and he got it from a very reliable source:

"Management have has a meeting with ATW staff at Shrewsbury regarding the above. Train to be formed of a........wait for it.........ex WSMR trainset."

Discuss.

 

[anthony263]

I was wondering when this would come up if it is true.

 

[the-gog]

Have you heard the same? I'm struggling to get any sort of confirmation from a 2nd source, but the feelers have been put out.

 

[anthony263]

No i hadn't realy heard this until it was mentioned here although there has been a bit of rumours flying about. Then again if it is true then i am not going to be surprised, but would such a service from Aberystwyth to London carry any more passengers than the wrexham service did?

I would be nice mind you to Go from London to Aberystwyth on a loco hauled train which may be popular during the summer months but i can't really see it being too popular during the winter (That said i hope i am wrong)

Finally i think the Class 67 or DVT would have to be fitted with ETRMS equipment to work from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth

 

[NightatLaira]

Reminds me of a similar idea I had 5 years ago... http://www.railwayscene.co.uk/showthread.php?thread=77

Makes me feel quite prophetic now


So I take it this service would be using Marylebone and the Chiltern route not Euston or Paddington?

 

[EltonRoad]

Hope this works. I remember as a teenager travelling on the Cambrian Coast Express between Shrewsbury and London (late 1980s). In the down direction there was a run-round at Shrewsbury and first class + buffet + DVT were taken off. In the up direction there was a run-round but first class + buffet + DVT + 86 electric were put on at Wolves. There was a footnote in the timetable, first class from Wolverhampton. I frequently used to photograph it just west of Shrewsbury, when you could be guaranteed a 37/4 and 5 or 6 InterCity Mark 2s. It would be great to see a similar service revived.

 

[The Planner]

So I take it this service would be using Marylebone and the Chiltern route not Euston or Paddington?

Would have to, the WSMR paths are still there and haven't been removed, just a case of getting the Aber departure/arrival to slot into the Shrewsbury times.

 

[466.networkers]

Any ideas of any potential/proposed paths for this service?
Could/would it go via Birmingham like the current ATW services?

 

[merlodlliw]

So this is Open Access then, I am very surprised, don't see any merit in the story,are people getting confused with WAG Express mark two.

Gareth Marston will know of any rumours,

 

[the sniper]

Wouldn't it make more sense for the WAG to just subsidise a VT Voyager service to Aberystwyth from Euston via the WCML, BHM and Shrewsbury? I know this would require the fitting of ERTMS to a Voyager (or are there portable units cleared for UK usage?), and there isn't exactly a plentiful supply of spare 221's*, but surely it would make more sense then ATW running LCHS up the scenic (i.e. slow) route to London?

*= With the four new 390's being brought in as nine car units, could one or two of these free a 221 or two from the Birmingham - Scotland route to run the Aber and Shrewsbury services?

EDIT: Just noticed WAG being involved was a figment of my imagination, which makes sense as we all know that the WAG don't pay for rail services that don't lead to their own capital.

 

[NSE]

I'm going to sound really stupid, but I've been browsing the forums and keep seeing this term 'WAG' croping up regarding Wales. What does it mean/stand for?

 

[matt]

Welsh Assembly Government

 

[NSE]

Welsh Assembly Government

Ahhh thank you very much.

 

[the-gog]

I know this would require the fitting of ERTMS to a Voyager (or are there portable units cleared for UK usage?)

None exist. After the difficulties in stuffing the ERTMS kit in a 158, trying to do the same on a Voyager would be next to impossible without a significant amount of very expensive work.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Hope this works. I remember as a teenager travelling on the Cambrian Coast Express between Shrewsbury and London (late 1980s). In the down direction there was a run-round at Shrewsbury and first class + buffet + DVT were taken off. In the up direction there was a run-round but first class + buffet + DVT + 86 electric were put on at Wolves. There was a footnote in the timetable, first class from Wolverhampton. I frequently used to photograph it just west of Shrewsbury, when you could be guaranteed a 37/4 and 5 or 6 InterCity Mark 2s. It would be great to see a similar service revived.

The million dollar question: do you still have the photos, and are they on the internet somewhere, or will they be at some point in time?

 

[MCR247]

*= With the four new 390's being brought in as nine car units, could one or two of these free a 221 or two from the Birmingham - Scotland route to run the Aber and Shrewsbury services?

Just the one atm

 

[anthony263]

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---The million dollar question: do you still have the photos, and are they on the internet somewhere, or will they be at some point in time?[/QUOTE]

There some photos of loco hauled trains and a hst at aberystwyth on fotopic somewhere, you may find some on flickr as well

 

[the-gog]

There some photos of loco hauled trains and a hst at aberystwyth on fotopic somewhere, you may find some on flickr as well

Yes, I know, I've scanned many of them, and have seen most, if not all, of what's already on Fotopic and Flickr. I was interested in what photographs EltonRoad had, as the area immeditaely west of Shrewsbury isn't represented that well.

 

[the sniper]

None exist. After the difficulties in stuffing the ERTMS kit in a 158, trying to do the same on a Voyager would be next to impossible without a significant amount of very expensive work.

Thanks for that. I did think fully installing it would be too time consuming/expensive.

Just the one atm

Indeed.

 

[merlodlliw]

No i hadn't realy heard this until it was mentioned here although there has been a bit of rumours flying about. Then again if it is true then i am not going to be surprised, but would such a service from Aberystwyth to London carry any more passengers than the wrexham service did?

No, the majority would be using it as a local service between Aber & Welshpool.

I would be nice mind you to Go from London to Aberystwyth on a loco hauled train which may be popular during the summer months but i can't really see it being too popular during the winter (That said i hope i am wrong)

Correct about the winter months

Finally i think the Class 67 or DVT would have to be fitted with ETRMS equipment to work from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth

Correct.

I can see some future kind of London service from Shrewsbury, but I do not see DB paying all the costs for an open access from Aber to London,WAG would not dare put a penny on subsidising any open access service,and politically never to London.
The largest town Aber has less than 20K including the Uni residents,the other 4 stations in Powys have small populations, I still think the chatter at Shrewsbury about 67s is the ATW training going on for the Wag Expresses which travel via Salop.
With DB pulling the plug on W/S I can not see them allowing ATW to spend £ millions running an open access service to a lesser populated area of mid Wales. An application would have to be made to the ORR & after the last fiasco where ATW was caught out fiddling the figures, they would have to be realistic this time.

Shrewsbury to London will occur I am sure from 2012/13. My opinion of course
I await Gareths comments,he will know what the score is.

Bob

 

[EltonRoad]

Yes, I know, I've scanned many of them, and have seen most, if not all, of what's already on Fotopic and Flickr. I was interested in what photographs EltonRoad had, as the area immeditaely west of Shrewsbury isn't represented that well.

The ones I took as a teenager were all at Meole Brace, west of Shrewsbury. Most are of the Sunday up service as it passed Shrewsbury in the afternoon. The photos are all 6 x 4s and I don't have a scanner unfortunately; and the photos are probably in my parents' loft! Will post them if I ever get them digitalised.

 

[TDK]

From a friend of mine, and he got it from a very reliable source:

"Management have has a meeting with ATW staff at Shrewsbury regarding the above. Train to be formed of a........wait for it.........ex WSMR trainset."

Discuss.

Your source - I have heard this elsewhere with the poster saying it was from a friend of a friend - unless you have evidence I feel that this is jusr rumour mongering - the meeting you refer to was regarding WAG 2 I believe
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

From a friend of mine, and he got it from a very reliable source:

"Management have has a meeting with ATW staff at Shrewsbury regarding the above. Train to be formed of a........wait for it.........ex WSMR trainset."

Discuss.

67 are not permitted on the Cambrian as it is RA5 so it's a no go with those locos, also who will fund the fitting of ERTMS? Not ATW that is for sure and before you post a phot of a 67 at Mach this was just a special agreement - there are heavy speed restrictions for any loco and I cant see the route being upgraded to RA8 just for an open access attempt from ATW, keep dreaming people
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

So this is Open Access then, I am very surprised, don't see any merit in the story,are people getting confused with WAG Express mark two.

Gareth Marston will know of any rumours,

Correct - the meeting was regarding WAG2 not Aber to London

 

[merlodlliw]

From a friend of mine, and he got it from a very reliable source:

"Management have has a meeting with ATW staff at Shrewsbury regarding the above. Train to be formed of a........wait for it.........ex WSMR trainset."

Discuss.

Gog, show this to your friend.

In a letter to Arriva, the ORR said it was concerned about the "financial viability of the project.
"We have assessed the business case put forward by ATW and remain concerned about the financial viability of the proposed new service.
"To generate a profit we consider there would be two options open to ATW: either to generate additional revenue; or to increase revenue abstraction.
"As discussed above, we consider it extremely unlikely that ATW would be able to generate sufficient new revenue to cover its forecast operating costs."

In my opinion No open Access Company will run London to Aber after this ORR report,especially DBs family.

All the inhouse talk of 67s at Shrewsbury was about the Wag Express services.


Bob

 

[brianthegiant]

None exist. After the difficulties in stuffing the ERTMS kit in a 158, trying to do the same on a Voyager would be next to impossible without a significant amount of very expensive work.

but interestingly, if they use a WSMR Loco/Mk3/DVT set, they could maybe add an ERTMS signalling tender car/ portable driver screen combo...avoiding most of the ERTMS retro-fit costs

Since such a tender/VDU setup is allegedly under development to enable continuation of steam services on the Cambrian post ERMTS commissioning, the difficulty would be if there are any conflicts between (weekend?) steam movements and (mid-week?) London services..

Is it the case that the threads with highest proportion of speculation are also the most fun?

 

[the-gog]

Gog, show this to your friend.

In a letter to Arriva, the ORR said it was concerned about the "financial viability of the project.
"We have assessed the business case put forward by ATW and remain concerned about the financial viability of the proposed new service.
"To generate a profit we consider there would be two options open to ATW: either to generate additional revenue; or to increase revenue abstraction.
"As discussed above, we consider it extremely unlikely that ATW would be able to generate sufficient new revenue to cover its forecast operating costs."

In my opinion No open Access Company will run London to Aber after this ORR report,especially DBs family.

All the inhouse talk of 67s at Shrewsbury was about the Wag Express services.


Bob

Pardon me for passing on a gen message, then. In future I'll know better to keep everything to myself, yes? What's that phrase, ah yes, "Don't shoot the messenger."

 

[merlodlliw]

Pardon me for passing on a gen message, then. In future I'll know better to keep everything to myself, yes? What's that phrase, ah yes, "Don't shoot the messenger."

No disrespect to you Gog, your friends informant appears to have got it wrong about why the ATW class 67 training is taking place, see also thread 21 about your friends informant from TDK

All we have done as you requested in thread one, discussed it.




Bob

 

[Gareth Marston]

A few points in response.

67's going to Aber were first raised by Andy Hamilton ex MD WSMR to my knowledge.

Pre WSMR demise Chiltern yes Chiltern were sniffing around Aberystwyth - not a daily service but looking at times of peak demand. Summer weekends, student goings and coming at Aber Uni.

Aberystwyth is more of a captive market than Wrexham despite population differences. Aber is 2hrs (at least) drive time to nearest dual carriageway. Cambrian Mainline is near 50mph average speed. i.e the poorer alternatives mean less competition. Cosmopolitan nature of Aber means linkages to elsewhere are of relative more importance to its populace.

Cambrian mainline has continued to grow at c7% per annum despite recession.

 

[merlodlliw]

A few points in response.

67's going to Aber were first raised by Andy Hamilton ex MD WSMR to my knowledge.

Pre WSMR demise Chiltern yes Chiltern were sniffing around Aberystwyth - not a daily service but looking at times of peak demand. Summer weekends, student goings and coming at Aber Uni.

Aberystwyth is more of a captive market than Wrexham despite population differences. Aber is 2hrs (at least) drive time to nearest dual carriageway. Cambrian Mainline is near 50mph average speed. i.e the poorer alternatives mean less competition. Cosmopolitan nature of Aber means linkages to elsewhere are of relative more importance to its populace.

Cambrian mainline has continued to grow at c7% per annum despite recession.

You are correct,AH did look at the routes to Aber & others, but dropped the idea due to cost.

Chiltern would have to run the service as an Open Access all the way,there is reason to believe something could be done for peak demand, but summer peak is only June to August, I recall the Saturdays only service Euston to Aber & Pwlhelli, using the Network SouthEast stock, but a daily service Open Access in my opinion would never break even.
Another point is Aber to London by car is just over 4.5 hours.Alas quicker.
I have not heard of the Chiltern Sniff around, but they will have discovered not a penny is available in Subsidy, mind you ATW would be the only objector
and since the marriage, they wont dare shout foul now.

I agree Aber is a captive market, whereas Wrexham with Smaller Glyndwr Uni & giant Yale college with its thousands of students plus very large town is only 15 minutes from a motorway, so not captive at all.

Although its not London, but Cardiff Bay where WAGs plan go, The staff at at Wags new offices at Aber must be envious of their counterparts at Junction,with its Wag Expresses direct plus the Company car to Valley for the flight.

If Ieuan Wyn Jones is still Minister of Rail after May(unlikely) he may well grant a direct train to Cardiff, to save Mid Wales politicians having to change at Shrewsbury. As for London from Aber by loco hauled 67, don't they have to run with two engines in case one fails, if was just a 67 & DVT on the single track, who comes to the rescue & how long if it should fail, the line is not like the ten miles between Wrexham & Saltney with rescue down the road
there may be passing loops on your line,a 158 can be piggy backed, a 67 needs a tow.

All in my opinion, what else can I think of at 0900 on a wet Sunday morning, I hope you get your hourly service, but all the silence is worrying.

Well after May we may have a new Rail Minister, who is understandable of how it works,listens to advice from expert Civil Servants, is not bluffed by ATW as Ieuan Wyn Jones as been, and more important is prepared to take blame, and not put the blame on Civil Servants at WAG, when it all goes wrong,

I must have started another discussion starter here.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Cambrian peaks are continuous throughout the year not just in the traditional Summer Saturday of years gone by.

Theirs a series of them - Start/End of term at Abr Uni, every half term school holiday and Easter. Weekends Fri/Sat/Sun are always busier in addition to the summer peak.

Remember Central Trains did run 170's to Aberystwyth for a while. Its not LHCS or 158's as options.

 

[tbtc]

Wrexham with Smaller Glyndwr Uni & giant Yale college with its thousands of students plus very large town

Wrexham is bigger, but people travel long distances to visit Aberystwyth, for both tourism and the University (rather than being a local college for local people).

Apart from supporters of Blue Square Premier Football teams, there's not a massive market for people from outside the "greater Wrexham" area to visit the town.

Aberystwyth would stand a better chance of sustaining a London service (as I've said all along).

 

[Greenback]

tbtc, you have a point. Aberystwyth will attract more people than Wrexham because it is on the sea, has a lot of students, has the National Library of Wales, and of course, has the steam railway.

No disrespect to Wrexham, but it is not really an attractive (or even unattractive) seaside town! And it's University does not have the same size, history or reputation as Aberystwyth's.