3.8% Fare rise announcement delayed

[6Gman]

Ah, the usual Treasury viewpoint. Because of course, public transport is a liability whose subsidy must be minimised at all cost - rather than an asset which can deliver benefits to the economy and society at large.

Unless and until public transport is a plausible option, people will continue to drive everywhere, imposing noise, traffic and pollution on society as they go.

But people don't "drive everywhere".

Most people mix their travel choices based on (yes) cost but also convenience, journey time, the circumstances of the journey and a whole range of other considerations.

 

[Watershed]

You can leave Manchester on the 0935. Which last time I looked is travelling after 0930?

Yes and 10:32, the time of the first Off-Peak train from Rugby, is also after 09:30 .

But really it's more relevant what time you can get to London - only just before lunch.

 

[Starmill]

You can leave Manchester on the 0935. Which last time I looked is travelling after 0930?

You could do, but it's been an absolutely horrible train to travel on for years. While the 0915 has continued to run throughout with a large number of empty seats. Also an 1140 arrival at the earliest is rather restricted.

 

[infobleep]

It might be helpful to explain what this 3.8% increase applies to.

It only applies to regulated fares. All other fares, being unregulated, can be increased by whatever the TOC likes, albeit now that is subject to DfT approval (and most likely HMT too).

However, don’t expect all regulated fares to increase by 3.8%. What it means is that the regulated ‘fares basket’ controlled by the TOC can increase by 3.8%. There can be, and is, some variation within that.

Does this mean they could raise one fare by 6.8% and another by 0.8% to compensate? And 6.8‰ being sold in larger numbers than the 0.8% fare but both being equal in number of ticket types.

I'm using extreme examples here. Not saying they would go to that extreme.

 

[JonathanH]

Does this mean they could raise one fare by 6.8% and another by 0.8% to compensate? And 6.8‰ being sold in larger numbers than the 0.8% fare but both being equal in number of ticket types.

I'm using extreme examples here. Not saying they would go to that extreme.

That is exactly how it used to work before use of the fares basket was discouraged. It gave flexibility to have higher fares where there was too much demand and lower fares on routes where demand needed to be stimulated. However, applied over a long time, it can lead to significant anomalies. One in particular was on the East Grinstead and Uckfield lines which ended up with lower fares to London than the neighbouring main lines.

 

[Haywain]

They are both forms of rationing. The point is, people talk about cheap fares being a "problem" as if congestion on the roads isn't a problem. And as if people don't drive despite the congestion

That's nonsense; capacity is not the same as rationing.

 

[infobleep]

Just because the Europeans may (do you have the stats for that?) subsidise their services more it doesn't automatically follow that we should.

It automatically doesn't follow that we shouldn't do this either.

 

[Starmill]

That's nonsense; capacity is not the same as rationing.

Isn't it? Congestion is a form of rationing scarcity through journey times. On rails we just seek to do that more through prices. Indeed so we should do on roads too.

 

[infobleep]

But it’s not ‘very limited off peak times’ is it? As long as you don’t want to travel before 0930 in the morning, or in the evening peak period, Monday to Thursday only, you can travel on any train with an off peak ticket. London - Manchester that’s £66 single, or £44 with a railcard.

And lots of people do it.

That’s the point.

What rail card gets a single person without a disabled rail card a discount to Manchester when they are not under 31 or old enough for a senior rail card or eligible for some other specialist card? There isn't one. Perhaps there should be but that isn't for this discussion. I was just highlighting this.

 

[JonathanH]

What rail card gets a single person without a disabled rail card a discount to Manchester when they are not under 26 or old enough for a senior rail card or some other specialist card? There isn't one. Perhaps there should be but that isn't for this discussion. I was just highlighting this.

Is that relevant? The return off-peak fare without a railcard from London to Manchester is £94.50, the off-peak single is £66.10. That is low enough that people will still pay it for a visit to family or attending an event even if the more cost-conscious think it is expensive for more discretionary purposes.

PS 26 should be 31 in your comment.

 

[The Quincunx]

Does this mean they could raise one fare by 6.8% and another by 0.8% to compensate? And 6.8‰ being sold in larger numbers than the 0.8% fare but both being equal in number of ticket types.

I'm using extreme examples here. Not saying they would go to that extreme.

It used to be possible to raise individual regulated fares by up to 5% above the cap (3% for Southern from 2009), provided that the increase in the overall value of the basket did not exceed the cap. This provision was removed in 2015 at the same time as the cap went to RPI flat, as there had been some adverse comments about "excessive" permitted increases on certain individual fares. Now, no fare in the basket can be increased by more than the cap.

 

[Haywain]

Isn't it? Congestion is a form of rationing scarcity through journey times. On rails we just seek to do that more through prices. Indeed so we should do on roads too.

The effect might be similar but the cause is different. Capacity makes availability of space a matter of chance. Rationing makes it a matter of allocation.

 

[Jimini]

Yes and 10:32, the time of the first Off-Peak train from Rugby, is also after 09:30 .

But really it's more relevant what time you can get to London - only just before lunch.

Absolutely. The “off peak” options from the likes of Brum, Coventry and Rugby — even to Watford, let alone Euston, are ridiculous, compared to other interpretations at other TOCs of the “after 0930” rule.

 

[Watershed]

The effect might be similar but the cause is different. Capacity makes availability of space a matter of chance. Rationing makes it a matter of allocation.

Perhaps. But regardless of if you were to make the railway's policy "first come first serve" or "reservation holders only" - ultimately the notion that cheap fares cannot be allowed to happen, because there wouldn't be enough capacity if everyone travelled at the same time, is simply not true. And it's that which I've been debunking.

 

[infobleep]

Is that relevant? The return off-peak fare without a railcard from London to Manchester is £94.50, the off-peak single is £66.10. That is low enough that people will still pay it for a visit to family or attending an event even if the more cost-conscious think it is expensive for more discretionary purposes.

PS 26 should be 31 in your comment.

Your right I was thinking. Corrected it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2021 ==

It used to be possible to raise individual regulated fares by up to 5% above the cap (3% for Southern from 2009), provided that the increase in the overall value of the basket did not exceed the cap. This provision was removed in 2015 at the same time as the cap went to RPI flat, as there had been some adverse comments about "excessive" permitted increases on certain individual fares. Now, no fare in the basket can be increased by more than the cap.

I hadn't realised this. So why doesn't everything go up by the cap amount?

 

[Meerkat]

Then on the way back, you can't leave London between 15:00 and 18:44. So for a day trip you have the choice of no more than 3.5 hours in London, or else sitting around for nearly 4 hours if you miss the boat.

If you are going for a day trip to London, and only arriving just before lunch, why on earth would you be leaving before 7pm?!
London doesn't shut down at 5pm.....

it can lead to significant anomalies. One in particular was on the East Grinstead and Uckfield lines which ended up with lower fares to London than the neighbouring main lines.

So? Is that a bad thing if it matches the supply and demand?

It automatically doesn't follow that we shouldn't do this either.

True, but if you are spending a huge amount of money copying other countries' policies it might be wise to see if they actually work first!

 

[JonathanH]

If you are going for a day trip to London, and only arriving just before lunch, why on earth would you be leaving before 7pm?!
London doesn't shut down at 5pm.....

Children's bedtimes, last buses, work the next day etc

So? Is that a bad thing if it matches the supply and demand?

In principle it makes some sense. However, an individual doesn't generally have a true choice of journeys so it doesn't really manage supply and demand leading to accusation of taking advantage of a captive market. I think the issue is that it became overused and people felt that it was resulting in some routes being unfairly treated / overpriced.

 

[Watershed]

If you are going for a day trip to London, and only arriving just before lunch, why on earth would you be leaving before 7pm?!
London doesn't shut down at 5pm.....

Well let's say you're undertaking a typical leisure trip. If not visiting family or friends, you might go to a museum, the shops, the cinema etc. All things for which 3.5 hours is rather tight - especially considering that that's only the amount of time between arriving at and departing from Euston. But equally you won't necessarily want to have to stay until 7pm-ish, as that means you are unlikely to be home much before bedtime.

 

[alistairlees]

The irony is that, if you are travelling with children, then there is a superb value Family Return from Manchester to London with minimal restrictions really:
- travel out on a specified train, on Mondays to Fridays (reservations are compulsory)
- travel back on any train at any time within a month

It's £124.10 (was £99.00 until recently) for up to 2 adults and 4 children.

See https://www.brfares.com/!faredetail...pert=on&flow=1&multi=3&fare=8&rte=474&tkt=VVF

It is quota-controlled (by virtue of the outward leg), though.

 

[Meerkat]

Well let's say you're undertaking a typical leisure trip. If not visiting family or friends, you might go to a museum, the shops, the cinema etc. All things for which 3.5 hours is rather tight - especially considering that that's only the amount of time between arriving at and departing from Euston. But equally you won't necessarily want to have to stay until 7pm-ish, as that means you are unlikely to be home much before bedtime.

Well we are clearly a long way from a trip that a cash-tight person NEEDS to make, and by the sound of it also a trip for which a car is a very unlikely alternative.
So we get back to the question of what is the Taxpayer funding - should they be subsidising someone popping down from Manchester to look at a museum in London?

 

[Watershed]

Well we are clearly a long way from a trip that a cash-tight person NEEDS to make, and by the sound of it also a trip for which a car is a very unlikely alternative.
So we get back to the question of what is the Taxpayer funding - should they be subsidising someone popping down from Manchester to look at a museum in London?

How far do you go? You could just as well say "why should taxpayers subsidise people commuting into London?". Or "why are car drivers subsidised to pollute the environment?".

 

[Meerkat]

How far do you go? You could just as well say "why should taxpayers subsidise people commuting into London?". Or "why are car drivers subsidised to pollute the environment?".

And those are perfectly reasonable questions. I have previously suggested that we should look at which commuters are getting subsidised as giving taxpayers money to wealthy people so they can afford to live in a bigger house in a nicer area, whilst wrecking the housing market for the locals, is a bit perverse.

 

[infobleep]

If you are going for a day trip to London, and only arriving just before lunch, why on earth would you be leaving before 7pm?!
London doesn't shut down at 5pm.....

So? Is that a bad thing if it matches the supply and demand?

True, but if you are spending a huge amount of money copying other countries' policies it might be wise to see if they actually work first!

Definitely good to see how they go but at some point a call needs to be made as you can't wait for ever.

One might hope they are already doing this

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2021 ==

And those are perfectly reasonable questions. I have previously suggested that we should look at which commuters are getting subsidised as giving taxpayers money to wealthy people so they can afford to live in a bigger house in a nicer area, whilst wrecking the housing market for the locals, is a bit perverse.

Perhaps they need to also look at why some people are priced out of living in London and are thus forced to commute instead.

I personally don't drive and have never past my test, so rely on public transport. Should my journeys by subsiaedicd because I'm doing my bit by not driving?