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3.8% Fare rise announcement delayed

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Watershed

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Given HM Government are effectively in control of every aspect of the running of the railway, do you think this increase will be across the board or to regulated fares only?

Ie given the decimation of commuting and the increase in leisure travel, could we see existing ’non regulated’ fares increase much higher, fares like super off peaks (in the cases where these are not the regulated) and advances etc which could well be the majority of all tickets purchased.

Already we’ve seen postings here noting the restricting of some of the lowest tier advances from sale.
They certainly haven't given any indication that that's what they intend to do. Ever since fares baskets were scrapped, unregulated fares have - in almost all cases - risen at the same rate as regulated fares.

Sadly, I would expect there to be more 'stealth' rises over the coming years. It's much easier to get away with than announcing them publicly.
 
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bakerstreet

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They certainly haven't given any indication that that's what they intend to do. Ever since fares baskets were scrapped, unregulated fares have - in almost all cases - risen at the same rate as regulated fares.

Sadly, I would expect there to be more 'stealth' rises over the coming years. It's much easier to get away with than announcing them publicly.

I wonder if any calculations have taken place to estimate at which point workers who have flexibility will be even less likely to travel when fares go up in this way.

I don’t know if the days of the railway’s (almost) guaranteed annual income from up front season tickets has gone forever, but they are not here now and this is the first time I think I can ever remember such a significant number of workers have been able to vote with their feet.

Given there is a desire to protect city retail and leisure, but alongside (mainly logical) messaging which makes many people think twice about journeys, this may all end up with a net reduction of income to HM Treasury.

I simply cannot predict what rail might look like in 5 years, let alone what it might cost!
 

jfollows

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I wonder if any calculations have taken place to estimate at which point workers who have flexibility will be even less likely to travel when fares go up in this way.
I've never really had to commute to work each day, maybe the closest is when I lived in Bath and worked in Bristol, but even back in 1994/5 I didn't go to the office every day. So a season ticket made no sense to me at the time, and instead I mixed driving to work (free parking at work) with getting the train after cheaper day return tickets were valid. So I was totally flexible then, the only real issue was that if I drove from home at 8am I'd get to the office at 9am whereas it felt like if I left at 8:30am I'd get to the office at 9:05am, so I generally didn't leave at 8am.
And presumably now far more workers are going to have the flexibility I had back then, and will be driven by similar considerations. But it'll be very hard to model and predict I also guess.
 

Bald Rick

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Given HM Government are effectively in control of every aspect of the running of the railway, do you think this increase will be across the board or to regulated fares only?

Ie given the decimation of commuting and the increase in leisure travel, could we see existing ’non regulated’ fares increase much higher, fares like super off peaks (in the cases where these are not the regulated) and advances etc which could well be the majority of all tickets purchased.

Already we’ve seen postings here noting the restricting of some of the lowest tier advances from sale.

It might be helpful to explain what this 3.8% increase applies to.

It only applies to regulated fares. All other fares, being unregulated, can be increased by whatever the TOC likes, albeit now that is subject to DfT approval (and most likely HMT too).

However don’t expect all regulated fares to increase by 3.8%. What it means is that the regulated ‘fares basket’ controlled by the TOC can increase by 3.8%. There can be, and is, some variation within that.
 

bakerstreet

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It might be helpful to explain what this 3.8% increase applies to.

It only applies to regulated fares. All other fares, being unregulated, can be increased by whatever the TOC likes, albeit now that is subject to DfT approval (and most likely HMT too).

However don’t expect all regulated fares to increase by 3.8%. What it means is that the regulated ‘fares basket’ controlled by the TOC can increase by 3.8%. There can be, and is, some variation within that.

Thanks @Bald Rick yes that’s useful. I suppose I was also wondering if the government has/can rip that up unilaterally.
Is the basket still a thing? I thought that might have ended.
 
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Bald Rick

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Thanks @Bald Rick that’s useful. I suppose I was also wondering if the government has/can rip that up unilaterally.
Is the basket still a thing? I thought that might have ended.

I think that changing the fares regulation needs primary legislation. Not sure though.

Government is very much in ‘net cost minimisation’ mode, so non regulated fares will be set to maximise revenue for minimal cost.
 

Meerkat

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The fare increase won’t be going on wages, most rail staff are earning less in real terms now then they were, as inflation has shot up and no wage rises for most since 2019.
Well actually it will be going on wages, as revenue has plummeted whilst the wage bill has not.
 

tbtc

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The majority of rail fares are set much higher than the cost of driving (regardless of if you use the 10-20p per mile cost of fuel or include fixed and other variable costs and call it 30-40p per mile).

So, really, there ought to be a substantial downward adjustment. Realistically, no government is going to bring fares down to continental levels, but even just resetting them to pre-privatisation levels (in real terms, using CPI not RPI!) would be a start.

Ah, so instead of a debate about whether 3.8% is the most appropriate or 2.5% or 5% or whatever you want to slash fares by three quarters or whatever?

How would the railway cope with people flocking to it to travel at ten pence a mile (without building hundreds of new lines/ thousands of new trains etc)?

And, are you saying that rail fares should be amended in line with the cost of driving (which is influenced by both the cost of petrol at the pumps/ electricity bills and the fuel efficiency of vehicles - e.g. petrol may go up in price over a decade but the average motorist may be able to drive further for £1 since their new car has better mpg than the previous one)? So if crude oil changes in price (which it regularly does) then we should amend rail fares in line with it?

(also, the "continental levels" thing has a lot to do with the cheaper standards of living in many other European countries - you can travel a hundred miles in Italy for less than a hundred miles in the UK but then wages are lower in Italy/ the cost of a pint of beer is cheaper/ the cost of a house is cheaper/ the cost of going to the football is cheaper... the price of a train ticket needs to be seen relative to other things in a country, rather than just taking the exchange rate, since some countries are cheaper in all regards)

And one of my pensions which I start collecting when I'm 65 is a civil service pension, which is increased annually by CPI, not RPI

I've no strong opinions about RPI/ CPI, but it made sense to switch to CPI for pensions since CPI doesn't take housing costs into account, so I can see why it's more appropriate for pensions (given that pensioners generally aren't paying rent/ mortgages or full council tax)

There's always the fun of seeing what's in the RPI basket this year:

"Microwave oven, in, Goblin Teasmade out"

"Punnet of strawberries, in, toasted sandwich maker out"

"I-phone, in, tinned prunes out" etc..

I find those articles interesting too - I know it happens every few months but I always enjoy reading them - I'd LOVE to see a similar thing with supermarkets (e.g. the size of a shop is the same size as before but there are lots of new ranges/ products, so what do they no longer sell - I'd be interested to see them publish this kind of thing)

I don’t know if the days of the railway’s (almost) guaranteed annual income from up front season tickets has gone forever, but they are not here now and this is the first time I think I can ever remember such a significant number of workers have been able to vote with their feet

I do worry about Government funding for railways, given that "income" will be a lot more volatile (rathe than being able to guarantee a certain amount of money for the railway), which could affect the viability of some projects (since we don't know what money will be coming through the farebox)
 

jfollows

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I've no strong opinions about RPI/ CPI, but it made sense to switch to CPI for pensions since CPI doesn't take housing costs into account, so I can see why it's more appropriate for pensions (given that pensioners generally aren't paying rent/ mortgages or full council tax)
I'll grant that I own my house without a mortgage, but (as a "pensioner") I'm most certainly paying full council tax, and I don't think that's unusual.

Mind you, my council tax is "only" increasing by 2.99% next year, it would seem.
 

Starmill

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I think that changing the fares regulation needs primary legislation. Not sure though.

Government is very much in ‘net cost minimisation’ mode, so non regulated fares will be set to maximise revenue for minimal cost.
It has been uncommon for 'unregulated' fares to be set with any other approach for some years.
 

Watershed

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Ah, so instead of a debate about whether 3.8% is the most appropriate or 2.5% or 5% or whatever you want to slash fares by three quarters or whatever?
In an ideal world, yes. But returning to the realm of the possible, a cut of something like 25% would at least undo the cynical use of RPI (plus 1% for several years) rather than CPI over the last 25 years.

And from thereon out, increases should be limited to CPI unless there are exceptional reasons justifying otherwise (and no, government advice and restrictions artificially killing off demand doesn't count in my book!).

How would the railway cope with people flocking to it to travel at ten pence a mile (without building hundreds of new lines/ thousands of new trains etc)?
The same way as the roads cope with people being able to drive at 10p per mile - i.e. through capacity being rationed according to demand.

But again, I don't think 10p a mile is a likely figure. If the average could even be reduced to something closer to 20p a mile that would be a good start.

And, are you saying that rail fares should be amended in line with the cost of driving (which is influenced by both the cost of petrol at the pumps/ electricity bills and the fuel efficiency of vehicles - e.g. petrol may go up in price over a decade but the average motorist may be able to drive further for £1 since their new car has better mpg than the previous one)? So if crude oil changes in price (which it regularly does) then we should amend rail fares in line with it?
Generally, public transport should be an affordable and credible option for as many journeys as possible. There are flows where it could never hope to compete with driving, but there are also lots of flows where it presents a good option but is so overpriced that people are put off.

Obviously fluctuations in the cost of petrol will always happen, but at current fare levels, petrol would have to increase two or threefold for it to come close to an even match.

(also, the "continental levels" thing has a lot to do with the cheaper standards of living in many other European countries - you can travel a hundred miles in Italy for less than a hundred miles in the UK but then wages are lower in Italy/ the cost of a pint of beer is cheaper/ the cost of a house is cheaper/ the cost of going to the football is cheaper... the price of a train ticket needs to be seen relative to other things in a country, rather than just taking the exchange rate, since some countries are cheaper in all regards)
Yes, the cost of living is undoubtedly lower in some of the comparator countries. But even when taking that into account, we are still talking about massive differences.

For example Rome to Bologna, a distance of 187 miles as the crow flies, costs £53 (€62) for a walk-up single valid at any time. London to Preston, a distance of 190 miles as the crow flies, costs £189 for the equivalent ticket.

Frankfurt to Hamburg, 248 miles, costs £102 (€120) for a walk-up single valid at any time. London to Newcastle, also 248 miles, costs £169 for an Anytime Single.

In all cases the generalised journey times of the routes are comparable, and there are also cheaper Advance-type tickets. But clearly journeys on the continent are priced much lower.
 

Meerkat

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Generally, public transport should be an affordable and credible option for as many journeys as possible
Why? As in why, when that would cost an awful lot of taxpayers' money?
For example Rome to Bologna, a distance of 187 miles as the crow flies, costs £53 (€62) for a walk-up single valid at any time. London to Preston, a distance of 190 miles as the crow flies, costs £189 for the equivalent ticket.

Frankfurt to Hamburg, 248 miles, costs £102 (€120) for a walk-up single valid at any time. London to Newcastle, also 248 miles, costs £169 for an Anytime Single.
Thats journalistic cheap shots. No one on a budget buys walk ups for those trips.
 

Watershed

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Why? As in why, when that would cost an awful lot of taxpayers' money?
Ah, the usual Treasury viewpoint. Because of course, public transport is a liability whose subsidy must be minimised at all cost - rather than an asset which can deliver benefits to the economy and society at large.

Unless and until public transport is a plausible option, people will continue to drive everywhere, imposing noise, traffic and pollution on society as they go.

Remember when, at the start of the first lockdown, roads were much less busy? Wouldn't it be nice for it to always be like that - but without the deleterious societal impacts of lockdown?

Thats journalistic cheap shots.
@tbtc suggested that train travel isn't really much cheaper abroad. I've shown a few examples proving otherwise.

Now of course, you can find counter-examples for every example. But the fact remains, the railways are much more heavily subsidised abroad than here. And as a result, fares are much lower.

No one on a budget buys walk ups for those trips.
When Advance tickets run out (or increase in price so much they're pointless), they do. Or if they don't know which train they want to catch. Or in any other number of circumstances.

And what is the point in having a high frequency service - 3tph London to Manchester for example - if you have to tie yourself to one specific train, or very limited Off-Peak times, for it to be remotely affordable?
 

Meerkat

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Ah, the usual Treasury viewpoint. Because of course, public transport is a liability whose subsidy must be minimised at all cost - rather than an asset which can deliver benefits to the economy and society at large.

Unless and until public transport is a plausible option, people will continue to drive everywhere, imposing noise, traffic and pollution on society as they go.
Strawman. You are trying to justify your solution, not defining the problem and comparing different solutions
But the fact remains, the railways are much more heavily subsidised abroad than here. And as a result, fares are much lower.
If they jumped off a bridge....... Just because the Europeans may (do you have the stats for that?) subsidise their services more it doesn't automatically follow that we should.
When Advance tickets run out (or increase in price so much they're pointless), they do. Or if they don't know which train they want to catch. Or in any other number of circumstances.

And what is the point in having a high frequency service - 3tph London to Manchester for example - if you have to tie yourself to one specific train, or very limited Off-Peak times, for it to be remotely affordable?
Now you are desperate. Who, on a budget, NEEDS to get from London to Manchester at short notice and with flexibility?
 

bakerstreet

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If they jumped off a bridge....... Just because the Europeans may (do you have the stats for that?) subsidise their services more it doesn't automatically follow that we should.

Depends on which examples you wish to follow. If you wish to follow an example of promoting greener more sustainable transport you might follow, if you wish to reduce road pollution and serious illness/premature death you might follow, if you wish public transport to be affordable and accessible to as many people as possible of all income levels then you might follow. Hardly a jumping off a bridge metaphor or analogy

Now you are desperate. Who, on a budget, NEEDS to get from London to Manchester at short notice and with flexibility?

It depends on your definition of ‘budget’ and London Manchester is but one example. But there are rather a lot of shorter peak journeys even just in the south where the proportion of a daily wage dedicated to a rail journey if you get a day of casual work, especially if you are on minimum wage, could be greater than 40 per cent. Minimum wage workers make the economy work however many cannot afford to live close to the cities they work in. And sometimes they don’t know where they will be required until the day (or perhaps the night before.)


And what is the point in having a high frequency service - 3tph London to Manchester for example - if you have to tie yourself to one specific train, or very limited Off-Peak times, for it to be remotely affordable?

Great question I’ve often wondered why be proud of such a clock face service and price out the benefits of same to many.
 
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Starmill

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Why? As in why, when that would cost an awful lot of taxpayers' money?
Driving costs an awful lot of public money too. Everything from the small scale fine particulate pollution resulting in lung conditions to the very large scale of storm damage worsened as a result of climate change. Are you going to insist on carefully controlling spending public money on those things too?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Thats journalistic cheap shots. No one on a budget buys walk ups for those trips.
So they just don't go. If there's no alternative cheaper tickets as is frequently the case, you can't travel... Or in reality you drive because it's cheaper.
 

Andrew1395

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Well actually it will be going on wages, as revenue has plummeted whilst the wage bill has not.
Well yes revenue contributes to all costs, as does government subsidies. My point was staff wont be getting a rise in wages, but will be at frontline of cost savings, both directly and indirectly.
 

Starmill

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Now you are desperate. Who, on a budget, NEEDS to get from London to Manchester at short notice and with flexibility?
The only ticket available at short notice is often the Anytime Single. If you need to travel urgently then you need to travel, regardless of your income.

Are you suggesting that anyone who can't afford to pay that should be systematically excluded? Bear in mind that the train will probably leave with large numbers of empty seats.
 

Haywain

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The only ticket available at short notice is often the Anytime Single. If you need to travel urgently then you need to travel, regardless of your income.
Or you use other means, like a coach. It's not like the train is the only option.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The same way as the roads cope with people being able to drive at 10p per mile - i.e. through capacity being rationed according to demand
How is roadspace rationed according to demand?
 

yorksrob

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Or you use other means, like a coach. It's not like the train is the only option.

Given how much we, as taxpayers, support the railway industry, I don't think a "shove em onto coaches" approach is desirable. As a publicly funded public service, there needs to be a change in policy (from government admittedly) to getting bums on seats. Having four seats running around empty just because the industry thinks it may get someone paying four times the usual fare for a walk up, isn't an efficient way of using expensively provided resources.
 

swt_passenger

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I'll grant that I own my house without a mortgage, but (as a "pensioner") I'm most certainly paying full council tax, and I don't think that's unusual.
I agree. I pay only 75% council tax because I’m a widower living alone, but there’s no automatic deduction for just being a pensioner.
 

Watershed

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How is roadspace rationed according to demand?
Because when there's more demand than the roads can handle, you get traffic jams. These put some people off whilst increasing journey times for most. It's self-regulating.

Now of course there are far more effective ways of rationing demand, which don't involve wasting people's time - for example the Congestion Charge.

But the principle that transport should be affordable, albeit you might face queues if you decide to travel at the same time as everyone else, is hardly novel. And there's no reason that principle couldn't be taken from the roads and applied to public transport, in answer to concerns about cheap fares causing overcrowding.
 

Haywain

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Because when there's more demand than the roads can handle, you get traffic jams. These put some people off whilst increasing journey times for most. It's self-regulating.

Now of course there are far more effective ways of rationing demand, which don't involve wasting people's time - for example the Congestion Charge.

But the principle that transport should be affordable, albeit you might face queues if you decide to travel at the same time as everyone else, is hardly novel. And there's no reason that principle couldn't be taken from the roads and applied to public transport, in answer to concerns about cheap fares causing overcrowding.
That is no more rationing than having to stand on a train is rationing. It's simply the downside of travelling at the busiest times.
 

Meerkat

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Depends on which examples you wish to follow. If you wish to follow an example of promoting greener more sustainable transport you might follow, if you wish to reduce road pollution and serious illness/premature death you might follow, if you wish public transport to be affordable and accessible to as many people as possible of all income levels then you might follow. Hardly a jumping off a bridge metaphor or analogy
I would be interested to see the stats that show the difference the Europeans higher subsidies (again, are they actually higher?) make. I have driven in Germany and Italy and I dont remember there being any shortage of traffic - quite the opposite.
 

Bald Rick

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And what is the point in having a high frequency service - 3tph London to Manchester for example - if you have to tie yourself to one specific train, or very limited Off-Peak times, for it to be remotely affordable?

But it’s not ‘very limited off peak times’ is it? As long as you don’t want to travel before 0930 in the morning, or in the evening peak period, Monday to Thursday only, you can travel on any train with an off peak ticket. London - Manchester that’s £66 single, or £44 with a railcard.

And lots of people do it.

That’s the point.
 

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Or you use other means, like a coach. It's not like the train is the only option.
Indeed, and rather more likely you go in the car you already have access to. That's what was being got at I think.
 

Watershed

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That is no more rationing than having to stand on a train is rationing. It's simply the downside of travelling at the busiest times.
They are both forms of rationing. The point is, people talk about cheap fares being a "problem" as if congestion on the roads isn't a problem. And as if people don't drive despite the congestion.

But it’s not ‘very limited off peak times’ is it? As long as you don’t want to travel before 0930 in the morning, or in the evening peak period, Monday to Thursday only, you can travel on any train with an off peak ticket. London - Manchester that’s £66 single, or £44 with a railcard.

And lots of people do it.

That’s the point.
Many only travel outside of those times because they are forced to by the pricing structure. The railway would deliver rather more public benefit if those typically empty 5pm intercity departures actually carried people rather than fresh air.

As for not before 09:30? Try again. The West Coast restriction doesn't let you get into London before 11:30. For a lot of stations that means you can't depart before 10:00 or 10:30.

Then on the way back, you can't leave London between 15:00 and 18:44. So for a day trip you have the choice of no more than 3.5 hours in London, or else sitting around for nearly 4 hours if you miss the boat. And of course the last departure that's isn't booked Slow Line or via Northampton is at 21:39 - earlier for most destinations. So that's a window of less than 3 hours the other side of the peak, unless you fancy trundling behind a stopper.

Now, of course, that's only 4 days a week. But that makes Friday the only day you fully utilise the service, without peak restrictions, or an early finish or late start.
 

JonathanH

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But it’s not ‘very limited off peak times’ is it? As long as you don’t want to travel before 0930 in the morning, or in the evening peak period, Monday to Thursday only, you can travel on any train with an off peak ticket. London - Manchester that’s £66 single, or £44 with a railcard.

And lots of people do it.

That’s the point.
Indeed, the impression is that so many people do it that they want to remove that limit on the fares charged.
 

Bald Rick

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As for not before 09:30? Try again. The West Coast restriction doesn't let you get into London before 11:30. For a lot of stations that means you can't depart before 10:00 or 10:30.

You can leave Manchester on the 0935. Which last time I looked is travelling after 0930?
 
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