nr758123
Member
Also a two vote margin (Lib Dem incumbent over Reform) in Saddleworth South, Oldham borough.
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2026 Local Elections Thread
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And encourage other liberal and left-leaning voters to vote Tory to keep them out?
Good for the country, self-defeating for them.
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I've seen the result for Basingstoke Central. If there is ever a clear illustration of why first-past-the-post is not true democracy, the results of this ward are it.
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On a turnout of 39%.
Reform got in on 27.5% of the vote, or 10.7% (!) of the electorate. Even if we use the somewhat misplaced "people too lazy to vote get all they deserve" argument, they obtained barely more than a quarter of those who actually voted. Between them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens got 52.5%: this is clearly not a right-leaning ward, so to get a hard-right party seems entirely inappropriate. Perhaps under a second-preference system either Labour or the Conservatives might have won - and perhaps that is a good illustration of why the two big parties need to be thinking about ditching FPTP.
From the Daily Echo: Hampshire County Council elections 2026: Full list of results
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Ha! That is true in respect of encouraging tactical voting, although wasn't what I was getting at.And encourage other liberal and left-leaning voters to vote Tory to keep them out?
Good for the country, self-defeating for them.
My point was that Reform's biggest challenge will be persuading voters on the right that they are meaningfully different to the Tories. The Tories will double down on their own anti-immigrant rhetoric, meanwhile Reform will be perceived to soften due to not promising to shoot all immigrants on sight (eg the Restore/Lowe split).
Anyone who considers Conservative and Reform policy-equivalent will vote Conservative on grounds of competence. The more those of us on the left act terrified of Reform, the more it helps Reform scoop up right-wing votes.
Or, will all those willing to vote Reform be already voting Reform anyway?
If you're right-wing but in the traditional, more moderate, low-taxation, prudent-economy type of way with a bit of "strong law and order" thrown in, but with no strong views on immigration or even mild anti-immigration views, you'll presumably stick with the Tories as the safer and more competent party of the two. You're not going to switch to Reform now.
If anything, it's likely that bad performance of Reform councils and increasing awareness of the effects of Trump will IMO swing people back from Reform to the Tories.
As a separate issue, where I think the Tories are misguided (from their own POV) is keeping to the right, I suspect they would have more success in drifting back towards the centre again.
Also though, the more that those on the left do act fearful of Reform, the more likely they are to vote for "anyone but Reform" - even the Tories - and influence others to do the same. Essentially for me the 2029 battle is Reform versus not-Reform and needs to be fought that way. Assuming Reform can be stopped from entering government, the individual parties can then go their own way again afterwards.
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britishrail375
Member
Great spot, though if we want to be pedantic the margin in Bexley is a smaller percentage of the total vote than the margin in Oldham. Excellent find, nevertheless.
Absolutely; they were the party for young people when I voted for them in the 1980s, but 1997’s election was much as 2024’s in that most voters abandoned them. It took them a long time to come back. And people of my age were the young voters in the 1980s but are old voters now. Presumably many of them continue to vote Conservative, although I haven’t voted Conservative since the early 1990s. I could only consider voting for them if they were the ‘one nation’ wing you mention, but that was comprehensively discarded in the last ten years.
All that said, I could see myself voting for a Conservative in local elections, although in fact my opinion is that they fouled up when last in power in Cheshire East, so it’s unlikely for me.
I think this is a very valid point. A voter who wants a party who is economically and socially centre-right has basically no options in England; the Lib Dems are socially left, and the Tories are socially hard-right. In many ways, those voters' best choice would be Starmer, but that is obviously not a sustainable strategy for Labour.
That's an interesting observation - not denying it but it's interesting.
I'm a bit younger (couldn't vote until '92) but my perception - a bit later, more like late 80s and early 90s - was that the Tories had a lot of appeal for those of about 30 or 35 upwards, so relatively young, but weren't popular amongst the late-teens and twentysomethings.
One also gets the impression that a lot of young people of the early-mid 80s (student age, twentysomethings) were left-leaning, being sympathetic to the striking miners, CND, and so on. But as someone comfortably below voting age at this time, I can't really speak first hand - my opinions are probably shaped by popular culture rather than personal experience, as I didn't know any twentysomethings personally in let's say 1985.
Presumably though the Cameron Tories must have had a fair amount of appeal to the relatively young (30-somethings in 2010) who wouldn't be as old as all that now.
What's odd is that the Reform, a party with very antiquated views IMO (far more than the Tories) can appeal to young people. Farage acts like he was born in 1864, not 1964, and If the Tories are stuck in the 1980s, Reform are stuck in the 1880s!
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gg1
Established Member
Are there figures anywhere for national turnout, I've only seen ward level figures?
For those councils I've looked at where a comparison to the previous election is available, turnouts are up across the board, substantially so in a number of wards. My suspicion is a significant chunk of the Reform vote is people who don't usually vote in local elections.
weeklycommuter
Member
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- Messages
- 1,039
The South end of Portsea Island has the University of Portsmouth with thousands of students. Thirty to forty years ago this area was strongly Conservative with the Labour vote in North Portsmouth. Stephen Morgan MP won Portsmouth South for Labour in 2017 and the wards at the South end of Portsea Island have in recent years elected Labour and Liberal Democrat councillors.
I one up you with this 1 vote victory in Essex!
Attachments
I wonder how many recounts went on there!
THC
Member
There were three recounts in total - eight hours from opening ballot boxes to the presiding officer confirming the result.
THC
ChrisC
Established Member
In the Nottinghamshire County Council elections in May last year, after numerous recounts, there was a 1 vote victory in my local council ward with the result as follows:
Conservative 1,271
Reform 1,270
Labour 502
Lib Dem 233
Green 184
I felt so good having voted Conservative!
There has always been a huge Conservative majority in my local council ward in the past but surprisingly quite a well respected local farmer stood as the Reform candidate and I did fear he would win.
Unfortunately Nottinghamshire did end up with a Reform Council with a large majority. Although, I have to say, that unlike in places like Kent, they have not been as bad as I had expected during their first year.
317 forever
Established Member
This looks like there will be more seats up for grabs next year than this year.
I remember year 1995 and every 4 years subsequently being an especially busy year for local elections in the 4 year cycle.
I agree. I wasnt referring to Portsea Island in my comments about 'Socially Conservative areas', but Havant, Fareham, Gosport etc. (In response to previosu posters question). Sorry, should have made that clearer!
317 forever
Established Member
That in itself would make Reform too futuristic for Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg
Gloster
Veteran Member
Reform won Shanklin Central by one vote. Reform - 356, Conservatives - 355.
britishrail375
Member
Fascinating, we've found two places with one vote majorities - Shanklin Central and Tiptree, Colchester. As a percentage of the total vote, Tiptree is closer than Shanklin, but you've both beaten me... I wonder if anyone else can find another ward with a 1 vote victory, and perhaps as a bonus with a smaller overall percentage of the vote!
I think there have been ties in the past with the councillor elected on the toss of a coin.
From 2022:
Elections 2022: What is it like to win a seat by coin toss?
Two candidates explain how their fate in the local elections was decided by the toss of a coin.
www.bbc.co.uk
Uncle Buck
Member
I quite agree. I’m sure Netanyahu is on the phone to the ayatollahs suing for peace as we speak, having heard that the Greens came three seats short of overall control in Tiddlesbury District Council…
I think there have been ties in the past with the councillor elected on the toss of a coin.
From 2022:
Elections 2022: What is it like to win a seat by coin toss?
Two candidates explain how their fate in the local elections was decided by the toss of a coin.
Yep either that or lots. It’s obviously rare but might happen once per cycle.
Uncle Buck
Member
I think you are missing something there. Between Brexit and the tightening of the rules, about four million people were admitted to this country in the space of a few years. That is an unbelievable share of the population. I would have thought it was unique outside of mass migration of refugees into neighbouring countries. It casts no aspersions on the immigrants themselves to say that that is absolutely abnormal.
Many pundits are saying that Starmer has tried to appease voters on the right who will never vote Labour, but in doing so has only succeeded in alienating Labour’s left-wing base. They seem not to realise that this is the mirror image of Boris Johnson’s government. They were loathed by left-wing voters, who would never vote for them, but by admitting immigrants at such a scale alienated their supporters. This is why the Tory vote collapsed in 2024 and why Reform has emerged to challenge them, just as the Greens are now challenging Labour.
Gloster
Veteran Member
There are instructions of what to do on the Electoral Commision’s website. Effectively, lots are drawn by a method chosen by the returning officer, e.g. the names of the tying candidates are written on two separate bits of paper, put in a ballot box, mixed around and then the returning officer, who can’t see into the box, pulls one out. This drawing of lots only applies to deciding who is elected: it doesn’t apply to failed candidates further down the result.
London's council results were interesting, Havering going to Reform was a given although it does cover up a sobering reality that they've hit a hard ceiling in terms of winning over voters in the outer boroughs.
Council elections aren't an indicator of how Mayoral elections will go but if I were someone at Conservative HQ, I would be seeing a path to winning and it's not appealing to the Reform voter, it's the Lib Dem voter in South West London.
Council elections aren't an indicator of how Mayoral elections will go but if I were someone at Conservative HQ, I would be seeing a path to winning and it's not appealing to the Reform voter, it's the Lib Dem voter in South West London.
weeklycommuter
Member
- Joined
- 2 Feb 2019
- Messages
- 1,039
The Liberal Democrat victories in the two new unitary councils East Surrey and West Surrey also show this.
However, in that case those at Conservative HQ need to speak to their party leader as current Conservative policies will definitely not appeal to Liberal Democrat voters either in South West London or anywhere else.
Uncle Buck
Member
You’re right, but in that case they will need to get out of the ludicrous position of wittering on about “latte-drinking London elites” etc etc.
The Tory Party has always been the party of the broad middle class; the established lot, the upwardly mobile, and those who aspire to join them. Yet their leader sneers at “the sort of people who want to save the church roof” (actual quote) and they subscribe to the “Somewheres vs Anywheres” nonsense that virtue can only be found in declining places and anywhere with a Waitrose is some kind of Sodom and Gomorrah undermining the national character.
They seem to regard places like Scunthorpe or Bolsover, which they won in 2019, as their heartland. That has never been their heartland! Places like Surrey and Oxfordshire are! Absolutely clueless!
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I see you beat me to it!