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2026 Local Elections Thread

thenorthern

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I'm not sure the Lib Dems are especially declining, it's more a case that they are concentrating their efforts in winnable areas. Look how well they did in west Surrey, for example - solid Tory territory up until very recently. Their new-found popularity in places like Surrey will be not insignificant in influencing the outcome of the next election, I suspect. Boris wouldn't have won in 2019 without Tory wins in Surrey, Wokingham, Oxfordshire and the like.

The Lib Dems are the obvious choice, for example, if you are socially liberal and economically centrist or even slightly centre-right, unless your MP is a One Nation Tory (and why the Tories are misguided with their right-wing trend under Badenoch).

My ward (not in Surrey) is a Tory-to-Lib Dem swing ward as it happens, and they have maintained their healthy lead, with the Tories still in 2nd place.

Debatable their projected national share was 16% which was 5th behind Reform, Green, Labour and Conservatives. In Wales they just only held onto their only MS in Wales. There projected national share is down on last year (I am aware Refrom UK is as well) and in the Westminster opinion polls they are getting around 11-12% which is not brilliant. Bear in mind, before the 2010 coalition they got 23% and in 2005 they got 22%. As I say I think we have reached peak Ed Davey.
 
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Andyh82

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Thanks. 27.1% then, so not quite as big a disaster as it looks.
Bear in mind in 5 party politics anyone who wins even if that was to be Labour will win with a much lower percentage than they would in 3 party politics, its basic maths.

People always say that ‘most’ people didn’t vote for the government, that will be even more the case in future
 
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An interesting result I've found by aimlessly clicking around several wards on https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/live/may-26 is in the Blackfen and Lamorbey ward in Bexley, southeast London. A Reform candidate lost by just two votes (less than 0.1% of the total vote) to a Tory candidate. This must surely be the smallest majority in this election.
 

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Andyh82

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It's time to see this as a major national crisis. Reform need to be stopped by all legal/ethical means: it will be a catastrophe if they win in 2029.

The other parties, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and Tories amongst others, need to work together to stop them getting in, by encouraging tactical voting and stepping aside in certain constituencies.

Bradford considerably more right-wing than Surrey. I never thought I'd live to see the day.
Before the last general election there were a lot of sites about tactical voting, some led by celebrities like Carol Vorderman aiming to ‘get the Tories out’. Some people were getting over excited about the prospect of the Tories being wiped out entirely (presumably wanting some sort of single party democracy where Labour get all the votes?!)

They never thought that if the Tories were wiped out, the right wing voters, outside their own echo chamber need someone to vote for, hence the rise of reform.

Maybe people should have given the Tories a slightly lighter kicking so they were still in a strong second place rather than a weak second place allowing Reform to gain momentum

Of course by now we should be riding high 2 years into a boring but competent Labour government and not the mess that has ensued
 

Snow1964

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I'm not sure the Lib Dems are especially declining, it's more a case that they are concentrating their efforts in winnable areas. Look how well they did in west Surrey, for example - solid Tory territory up until very recently. Their new-found popularity in places like Surrey will be not insignificant in influencing the outcome of the next election, I suspect. Boris wouldn't have won in 2019 without Tory wins in Surrey, Wokingham, Oxfordshire and the like.
It seems to be case that the Lib Dem's do well in certain parts of the country, mainly where Conservative is main opposition. Possibly upper middle business or educated ABC1 (whatever term you like, never hear them talk about class group)

Strong in Central southern England (took the 2 new Surrey councils and Portsmouth, kept SW London), got third of Hampshire. Also did ok in bits of Hertfordshire, Gloucestershire and South Manchester.

Last election did well in South West, South Midlands, and some parts Midlands-North borders. But this time very few seats being contested in these areas, so difficult to see what happening in their strongholds.
 

Trackman

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An interesting result I've found by aimlessly clicking around several wards on https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/live/may-26 is in the Blackfen and Lamorbey ward in Bexley, southeast London. A Reform candidate lost by just two votes (less than 0.1% of the total vote) to a Tory candidate. This must surely be the smallest majority in this election.
A few wards in Lewisham were extremely tight, including mine, Hither Green.
I don't expect all locals to read the full results, but if they did and didn't vote I bet they wished they had done now.
 

Tester

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An interesting result I've found by aimlessly clicking around several wards on https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/live/may-26 is in the Blackfen and Lamorbey ward in Bexley, southeast London. A Reform candidate lost by just two votes (less than 0.1% of the total vote) to a Tory candidate. This must surely be the smallest majority in this election.

I see that a Tory and a Reform candidate have the same surname.

It's possible that more than one voter managed to vote for the wrong Brooks!
 

Trackman

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I see that a Tory and a Reform candidate have the same surname.

It's possible that more than one voter managed to vote for the wrong Brooks!
I dont know if it was about 30 years ago or more, but ballot papers didn't indicate the party they belonged to - I had to remember their name.
 

45Fox

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An interesting result I've found by aimlessly clicking around several wards on https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/live/may-26 is in the Blackfen and Lamorbey ward in Bexley, southeast London. A Reform candidate lost by just two votes (less than 0.1% of the total vote) to a Tory candidate. This must surely be the smallest majority in this election.

I agree that's interesting, it would probably be fair to assume it went to a recount.

I can remember a couple of very close results in General Elections during the past 45 years.
One constituency in 1997 (possibly Salisbury? I've got an idea it was in that part of the country) was decided by 2 votes, if I recall correctly it was won by the Liberal Democrats; Leicester South in 1983 was won by the Tories with 7 votes over Labour.

*Edit* The 1997 one was Winchester.
 
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The Ham

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Bear in mind in 5 party politics anyone who wins even if that was to be Labour will win with a much lower percentage than they would in 3 party politics, its basic maths.

People always say that ‘most’ people didn’t vote for the government, that will be even more the case in future

The thing is, that only applies if that distribution is equal across all areas.

If you have 10 seats for a government it's possible for none of those 10 seats to be won by a party with 30% of the vote if there's 4 other parties where they do very well in 2 to 3 seats but hardly make it to 4th place in the others.

Seats 1, 2 and 3 won by Labour with 40% of the vote, whilst Reform get 32% and the others get the remaining 30% between the three of them.

Seats 4, 5 and 6 are one by the Tories on 37% of the vote, Reform get 30% and the remaining get 33% of the vote.

Seats 7 and 8 are won by the Lib Dems on 33% of the vote, Reform get 30% and the remaining 37% is spilt between the others.

Seats 9 and 20 are won by the Greens on 29% of the vote, Reform get 27% and the remaining 44% is split between the others.

With the "others" being at least 3 means that the share of the last circa 30% is around 10% each.

On the above Reform get 30% of the vote of the others average around 14% to 21% and yet Reform never win a single seat.

Obviously the above is highly unlikely, but does show how (especially where almost anywhere rural in southern England the local Labour candidate, used to at least, be unlikely to be in the top 2. Conversely, I suspect that the same is true but furthe Tories on much of the urban north) how a high vote percentage nationally doesn't (even with FPTP) equal a high number of seats.

With any other sort of voting, it's more complex, do Tories vote Green, Lib Dem, Labour or Reform? As others have pointed out the Tories used to be quite broad and so almost anything could be possible.

I agree that's interesting, it would probably be fair to assume it went to a recount.
I can remember a couple of very close results in General Elections during the past 40 or so years;
One constituency in 1997 (possibly Salisbury? I've got an idea it was in that part of the country) was decided by 2 votes, Leicester South in 1983 was won by the Tories with 7 votes over Labour.
I used to work with someone where they worked for a council and enjoyed doing the elections (particularly enjoyed reminding one parliamentary candidate that they weren't currently the MP, even though they were still a minister - knowing full well that even a pig with the correct colour rosette would win, my colleague got "told off" by the returning officer but in s way which meant that officially it happened but both knew it wasn't a serious matter) anyway one local election was so close it ended up, after several recounts being decided by tossing a coin.
 

45Fox

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My wife used to work with someone where they worked for a council and enjoyed doing the elections (particularly enjoyed reminding one parliamentary candidate that they weren't currently the MP, even though they were still a minister - knowing full well that even a pig with the correct colour rosette would win, my colleague got "told off" by the returning officer but in s way which meant that officially it happened but both knew it wasn't a serious matter) anyway one local election was so close it ended up, after several recounts being decided by tossing a coin.

My wife used to work for a council, she enjoyed the couple of times she worked at elections.

The official method for deciding a tied vote is "the drawing of lots", it never happened at any of the ones she was at, I would imagine it's quite rare, but I did ask her what this would actually involve; she hadn't been briefed on this but assumed it would be a coin toss, you've confirmed that. Many thanks.
 
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nw1

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Bear in mind in 5 party politics anyone who wins even if that was to be Labour will win with a much lower percentage than they would in 3 party politics, its basic maths.

People always say that ‘most’ people didn’t vote for the government, that will be even more the case in future

Does make "winning" harder than before though, hopefully, and a coalition more likely.
 

Tester

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I dont know if it was about 30 years ago or more, but ballot papers didn't indicate the party they belonged to - I had to remember their name.

I think it may have been longer than that.

I first voted in the mid 1970s and party names were on the ballot paper then, but I had heard about them not being so previously.

It would certainly have made the present example 'interesting'!
 

nw1

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Debatable their projected national share was 16% which was 5th behind Reform, Green, Labour and Conservatives. In Wales they just only held onto their only MS in Wales. There projected national share is down on last year (I am aware Refrom UK is as well) and in the Westminster opinion polls they are getting around 11-12% which is not brilliant. Bear in mind, before the 2010 coalition they got 23% and in 2005 they got 22%. As I say I think we have reached peak Ed Davey.

As I said, they are concentrating their effort on certain areas. Why spend resources fighting a seat which is more likely to be won by the Greens or Labour?

They will not form a government on their own, but they have a high chance of being part of a coalition and influencing it (more likely this time as there will surely be no "dominant" partner in the coalition, unlike the Tories in 2010). This is perhaps their strategy: aim to be strong in certain parts of the country, gain or hold many seats in the south of England, and join a coalition government.

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It seems to be case that the Lib Dem's do well in certain parts of the country, mainly where Conservative is main opposition. Possibly upper middle business or educated ABC1 (whatever term you like, never hear them talk about class group)

Strong in Central southern England (took the 2 new Surrey councils and Portsmouth, kept SW London), got third of Hampshire. Also did ok in bits of Hertfordshire, Gloucestershire and South Manchester.

Last election did well in South West, South Midlands, and some parts Midlands-North borders. But this time very few seats being contested in these areas, so difficult to see what happening in their strongholds.
Yes, I'd say that socially-liberal but economically-mixed-leanings areas are the Lib Dem strongholds. They are an acceptable party to vote for if you are socially-liberal and left-wing, and also if you are socially-liberal and economically somewhat conservative. This combination of demographics is perhaps mostly found in commuter areas around the big cities. Outside of the south, ISTR places like Hazel Grove and Cheadle are also Lib Dem strongholds, or at least Lib Dem/Tory swing seats.

Portsmouth is perhaps more of a surprise as it isn't obvious Lib Dem territory, but it is an area with complex politics. North Portsmouth trends right-wing but South Portsmouth much more liberal. It's also notable that the satellite towns of Portsmouth seem to lean firmly rightwards; there's a ring of Reform areas round Portsmouth (Fareham town, though not the rest of the borough, Gosport, Havant, and Waterlooville) before we then get back into more Tory or Lib Dem areas out in the countryside. None of these satellite towns have ever returned a Labour or Lib Dem MP, incidentally, even in the Blair years. I've always wondered why these towns lean so unambiguously rightwards. Their demographics do seem to be quite mixed, affluent commuter areas mixed with much less affluent areas.
 
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Horizon22

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Bradford considerably more right-wing than Surrey. I never thought I'd live to see the day.

Looking at it in simple “left-right” terms doesn’t really work. You also have the social/liberal axis as well as the reactionary/populist viewpoint versus the reformist/collaborative view of politics.

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Debatable their projected national share was 16% which was 5th behind Reform, Green, Labour and Conservatives.

By 1%.

One poll I saw had 2/3/4th all on 17%. That 16% is also higher than recent polls which all had the Lib Dems in the 10-12% mark.
 

nw1

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Looking at it in simple “left-right” terms doesn’t really work. You also have the social/liberal axis as well as the reactionary/populist viewpoint versus the reformist/collaborative view of politics.
Indeed, I am aware of that: my comment was somewhat flippant given the stereotypes of the two places in say the 1980s.

There are of course two axes, economic left/right and socially liberal/conservative. The Lib Dems' appeal is likely to be on the socially liberal side of the axis, irrespective of where you are on the left/right economic spectrum.

For example I would class myself as in the left/liberal quarter of the graph, and would happily vote any of Green, Lib Dem, or Labour - usually picking the one most likely to win. I might even vote Tory tactically to keep Reform out, but there is absolutely no way I would vote Reform even if my life depended on it!
 

Snow1964

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Looking ahead to where things are going forward
Appears 6 May 2027 elections are :

22 Welsh Councils (all seats)
32 Scottish Councils (all seats)

31 Metropolitan boroughs (28 one third, 3 all seats)
49 Unitary Authorities (14 one third, 35 all seats)

136 District Councils (38 one third, 98 all seats)

With plenty of those Metropolitan Boroughs in former Labour heartlands, will Labour be able to turn things around within a year.

Many of those Unitary authorities are in either (historically Conservative) or Liberal Democrat areas, so where will they go.

Will Reform still be popular in years time, (peaked last Autumn) and might have slipped further to say 20-24% popularity.

It has been suggested that many parties (Labour, Lib Dem, Green, Conservative) are around 16-18% nationally so how things go forward with 4-5 parties only few points difference is anyone's guess.
 

nw1

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With plenty of those Metropolitan Boroughs in former Labour heartlands, will Labour be able to turn things around within a year.

Many of those Unitary authorities are in either (historically Conservative) or Liberal Democrat areas, so where will they go.

Will Reform still be popular in years time, (peaked last Autumn) and might have slipped further to say 20-24% popularity.

It has been suggested that many parties (Labour, Lib Dem, Green, Conservative) are around 16-18% nationally so how things go forward with 4-5 parties only few points difference is anyone's guess.

I wonder whether writing off the Conservatives is a bit premature. I'm not their biggest fan by any means, but they are by no means the worst player around, and they seem to be holding up in a number of places, especially rural areas. Perhaps after Reform make a hash of running a number of councils, many on the right will come back to them?

I think Labour have likely troughed, I can see them doing poorly again but perhaps less so. Lib Dems similar to this year perhaps, and Greens up further. A lot might depend on just how much Trump influences the cost of living in the meantime, as in "Vote Reform UK, get Trump UK!"

Reform will hopefully slip further but perhaps still have a frighteningly large number of seats. I'd suspect (hope?) that people are more willing to vote for them in a local election than in a GE, where the future of the whole country is at stake, not just your borough.
 
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Snow1964

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Just spotted that Catherine West (the Labour MP threatening to start a Starmer replacement process tomorrow) is going to be on the Laura Kuenssberg TV show at 9am

For completeness, also Bridget Phillipson, James Cleverly, Richard Tice, Rhun ap Iowerth
 

Bantamzen

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It's time to see this as a major national crisis. Reform need to be stopped by all legal/ethical means: it will be a catastrophe if they win in 2029.

The other parties, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and Tories amongst others, need to work together to stop them getting in, by encouraging tactical voting and stepping aside in certain constituencies.

Bradford considerably more right-wing than Surrey. I never thought I'd live to see the day.
Unfortunately for Bradford it's back to the days of No Overall Control. The last time that was the case, a huge hole in the city centre appeared where a shopping centre was supposed to have been built in 2004, and was there for a decade, decimating the local economy. Reform & the Conservatives have been rumoured to have formed and alliance, something which is denied by the latter, which is a very bad sign. And honestly unless something massive changes, this is how I see the next General Election going, with a lame duck government struggling to get anything done.
 

nw1

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Unfortunately for Bradford it's back to the days of No Overall Control. The last time that was the case, a huge hole in the city centre appeared where a shopping centre was supposed to have been built in 2004, and was there for a decade, decimating the local economy. Reform & the Conservatives have been rumoured to have formed and alliance, something which is denied by the latter, which is a very bad sign. And honestly unless something massive changes, this is how I see the next General Election going, with a lame duck government struggling to get anything done.

That said, better a lame duck government than a Reform government, though neither is appealing.
 

The Ham

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That said, better a lame duck government than a Reform government, though neither is appealing.

Indeed, although whist there's been a lot of Criticism of the current Labour (national) government there's areas which they have made progress on (electricity prices falling a little in April, looking to see if they can break the mini between gas prices and wholesale electricity prices, etc.).
 

JonathanH

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I wonder whether writing off the Conservatives is a bit premature. I'm not their biggest fan by any means, but they are by no means the worst player around, and they seem to be holding up in a number of places, especially rural areas. Perhaps after Reform make a hash of running a number of councils, many on the right will come back to them?
The problem that the Conservative party has is that its supporter base tends to be perceived as being older people. As those older people die off and are not replaced by the next generation they will naturally decline. The shift to the right and loss of the 'one nation' wing also means that it has a much more narrow focus.
 
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Looking ahead to where things are going forward
Appears 6 May 2027 elections are :

22 Welsh Councils (all seats)
32 Scottish Councils (all seats)

31 Metropolitan boroughs (28 one third, 3 all seats)
49 Unitary Authorities (14 one third, 35 all seats)

136 District Councils (38 one third, 98 all seats)

All remaining non-metropolitan district councils and the non-metropolitan unitary councils in the remaining twenty areas of England where local government is being reorganised will not be holding elections on 6 May 2027 or on any date after that.

They will all be replaced by new unitary councils for which the inaugural election will take place on 6 May 2027. The new unitary councils will then take over on 1 April 2028.

The following twenty county councils and their district councils will be replaced by new unitary councils to be elected on 6 May 2027:

Devon, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Kent, East Sussex, West Sussex, Oxfordshire, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Lancashire.

The following 17 unitary councils will also be replaced:

Plymouth, Southampton, Portsmouth, Brighton and Hove, Medway, Thurrock, Southend-on-Sea, Peterborough, Stoke-on-Trent, Rutland, Leicester, Derby, Nottingham, North Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire, Blackpool, Blackburn with Darwen.

Surrey County Council and its eleven districts are being replaced on 1 April 2027 by two new unitary councils, East Surrey and West Surrey, which were elected on 7 May 2026.

The inaugural elections for new unitary councils in the remaining twenty areas where local government is being reorganised will make the local elections in England on 6 May 2027 a very important set of elections.
 
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Uncle Buck

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Indeed, I've never voted Tory in my life but the one time I would do is if it was a straight choice between them and Reform.
It seems your neighbourhood alone managed to keep them out!

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It does seem to be the case that the kind of places that go for Reform are those which, in Parliament, were Tory pre-1997, then Labour 1997-2010, then Tory 2010-2024, then Labour again since 2024 - irrespective of the part of the country or demographic make-up.

In other words, what have typically been Tory/Labour swing seats.
A similar observation is that the Greens tend to do well in the trendy/student-y area and that those would have been Tory in Margaret Thatcher’s day! Places like Glasgow Hillhead, Brighton Pavilion, Cambridge, Oxford.

One heck of a turnaround!
 

martin butler

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Just picking up from the post yesterday (by someonelocal to there), to confirm that Hastings is now controlled by the Green Party with 19 vs 13 for others.

Whilst Labour lost 10 and Reform gained 6, I'd suspect most of those 6 for Reform were more likely to be from the 4 Tories lost with many shifting to Green from Labour.

That might have been me, I live in St Leonards, yes, the greens now have overall control of Hastings council, Like most coastal towns, it has its problems, and no easy answers,

Our councillor who we elected 2 years ago, had done a good job, and genuinely cared about the area, she also lived locally and understood what needed urgent attention, and what could wait,

The councilor she replaced was more interested in playing labours ideological games, more interested in being a loyal Corbynite, and supporting Gazza etc, than supporting our area when we saw savage cuts, when costs were going through the roof, and so she got back in with a larger majority this time,

I think that Reform's wins will be short lived, they won on what? promises they can't deliver, and when reality hits hard, and they find there is no easy cuts, they will be found out, many will find local government too hard, and there's those who voted for them,

They will be expecting more than can be delivered, councils can't order deportations, can't order the coastline to be lined with machinegun posts, and barbed wire, can't order Starmer to be publicly beheaded on tower hill ( only joking) its boring things like bin collections, its about local services, not slogans.
 
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Ant1966

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As I said, they are concentrating their effort on certain areas. Why spend resources fighting a seat which is more likely to be won by the Greens or Labour?

They will not form a government on their own, but they have a high chance of being part of a coalition and influencing it (more likely this time as there will surely be no "dominant" partner in the coalition, unlike the Tories in 2010). This is perhaps their strategy: aim to be strong in certain parts of the country, gain or hold many seats in the south of England, and join a coalition government.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


Yes, I'd say that socially-liberal but economically-mixed-leanings areas are the Lib Dem strongholds. They are an acceptable party to vote for if you are socially-liberal and left-wing, and also if you are socially-liberal and economically somewhat conservative. This combination of demographics is perhaps mostly found in commuter areas around the big cities. Outside of the south, ISTR places like Hazel Grove and Cheadle are also Lib Dem strongholds, or at least Lib Dem/Tory swing seats.

Portsmouth is perhaps more of a surprise as it isn't obvious Lib Dem territory, but it is an area with complex politics. North Portsmouth trends right-wing but South Portsmouth much more liberal. It's also notable that the satellite towns of Portsmouth seem to lean firmly rightwards; there's a ring of Reform areas round Portsmouth (Fareham town, though not the rest of the borough, Gosport, Havant, and Waterlooville) before we then get back into more Tory or Lib Dem areas out in the countryside. None of these satellite towns have ever returned a Labour or Lib Dem MP, incidentally, even in the Blair years. I've always wondered why these towns lean so unambiguously rightwards. Their demographics do seem to be quite mixed, affluent commuter areas mixed with much less affluent areas.
None of these satellite towns have ever returned a Labour or Lib Dem MP, incidentally, even in the Blair years. I've always wondered why these towns lean so unambiguously rightwards
Having grown up in that area; I have a view (which may or may not be correct!). I think those areas are quite 'Socially conservative'. Leigh Park (allegedly the 'largest council estate in Europe' at one time, so local legend has it) is basically a Portsmouth overspill to rehome white working class Portsea Island residents after the war. It was built by PCC, not Havant. In that respect its probably most similar to the parts of Essex / Outer East London that re homed East Enders; and which were the heart of Thatcherism. Those parts of Essex always voted Tory (now they vote Reform). See: Norman Tebbit ('the Chingford Polecat'), Priti Patel etc.
Portsea Island itself is of course unique geographically; there is nowhere to build within the city 'Island' itself, its full of housing, so they had to expand elsewhere. Add in the large number of military families (especially in Gosport) and youve probably got a bias toward social conservatism. In our electoral system, a 10/20% bias is enough to ensure you always win!
Pompey really is unique. Its very different, for example, from their 'friends' and neighbours in Southampton only 20 miles to the West. Even the accents. Southampton has a slight West Country burr. Pompey is basically cockney.
 

Snow1964

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I think that Reform's wins will be short lived, they won on what? promises they can't deliver, and when reality hits hard, and they find there is no easy cuts, they will be found out, many will find local government too hard, and there's those who voted for them,
Yes, big difference between picking the most popular woes and saying will fix them vs actually being able to fulfill the selected mix of ideas within a budget.

Some of their soundbite policies actually conflict at a practical level
 

Ant1966

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Yes, big difference between picking the most popular woes and saying will fix them vs actually being able to fulfill the selected mix of ideas within a budget.

Some of their soundbite policies actually conflict at a practical level
Exactly this. In Basingstoke most of the Reform candidates (even those that won) didnt even turn up for the voting count and the results. Doesnt bode well for their commitment. Being a councillor is 90% boring, mundane stuff, deaing with loads of minor (albeit very important the to the indivduals concerned of course) issues, reading policies, attending meetings. A lot of time and effort, for very little reward. We have had some excellent local councillors (of ALL parties) and some pretty lazy ones. emains to be seen which camp the new Reform Cllrs fall into. My guess is some will be hard working, but most wont. We shall see.
 

Cdd89

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Indeed, I've never voted Tory in my life but the one time I would do is if it was a straight choice between them and Reform.
It seems your neighbourhood alone managed to keep them out!
I suspect Reform would proudly put your statement on their billboards!
 

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