You're not alone.
I took a punt on Nat Ex when I thought they might win the ECML franchise. The graph says it all : (click to enlarge)
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Unlucky! I have it from a usually reliable source that First actually won the EC bid, but due to their then 'issues' on FGW the minister intervened and it went to the second placed bidder. Certainly NX had got the impression they had not won it.