Just because a TOC does well and is well liked by by passengers and staff does not automatically mean it will retain it's franchise - look at GB Railways with their Anglia Railways franchise, won awards but lost to National Express who because of their Central Trains franchise had a reputation for poor service.
Therefore I don't think Virgin will automatically retain the ICWC franchise and there's a fair chance that another operator may win it.
No, that's the thing, isn't it, it's all based on what, like politicians, they promise for a brighter tomorrow. But what can you expect when it's politicians who make the decisions, and this, of course, is the way they always hope we'll think; never mind what we may have done in the past, look! This is what we promise we'll do in the future!
i think, if anyone was to ask me, the only way to make it more rational - i.e. based on past peformance, rather than empty promises, is to take it out of the hands of the career politicians and perhaps give it to some apolitical body to decide; but who could that be, since any such would be appointed by the Government. Nevertheless, I feel that this is what should be done, if we are to see that brighter tomorrow.