Will Winter be as bad as last year?

[passmore]

If climate change deniers think their respective country is the world, why do climate change believers almost always think the opposite, yet still equate their country with the rest of the world?

 

[valenta]

I think that we will get a fair bit of all the described conditions.

 

[Stewart]

One count of poor communication does not a whole theory debunk.
The issue with climate change is that politicians have hijacked it for their own ends.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Is man releasing a lot of CO2 into the air?

I find a lot of climate change deniers think that Britain = The World. If we have a cold winter here in Britain then climate change is obviously a hoax - forget the heatwave in the Midwest and that the opening of the Northwest passage.

"One count of poor communication" is a laughable way to describe what was released in the emails. Scientists conspiring to keep sceptical papers out of journals, conspiring to hide data that showed a temperature decline, celebrating the death of a sceptical scientist, talking about refusing to comply with Freedom of Information Acts, etc.

10 years ago we were told that climate change will lead to snowless winters in the UK.

 

[90019]

Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Is man releasing a lot of CO2 into the air?

It is a greenhouse gas, but as far as greenhouse gases go, it's pretty crap. There are many that are much worse*.
Ones that are worse include Methane, Nitrous Oxide and even water vapour.


*I seem to recall something about CO2 being the least effective greenhouse gas, but I can't remember if that's actually true or if there are some that are less so.

 

[SS4]

It is a greenhouse gas, but as far as greenhouse gases go, it's pretty crap. There are many that are much worse*.
Ones that are worse include Methane, Nitrous Oxide and even water vapour.


*I seem to recall something about CO2 being the least effective greenhouse gas, but I can't remember if that's actually true or if there are some that are less so.

That is true, but I believe that sheer volume makes up for it though.

 

[90019]

That is true, but I believe that sheer volume makes up for it though.

To a point.
IIRC, the gas that has the largest part in the greenhouse effect is actually water vapour, and by quite a long way,

 

[table38]

Shhh... the Climate Change Industry really doesn't like anyone talking about Water Vapour.

Let's look at the Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases thought to contribute to Global Warming (contribution by %):

So CO2 looks like the major contributor, even taking into account that four fifths of atmospheric CO2 is naturally occurring.

But by a clever sleight of hand, we managed to accidentally forget about Water Vapour.

Anyway, it's not a gas is it, so we aren't misleading anyone, honest!

Just out of interest, what happens when we create a chart of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases and Water Vapour thought to contribute to Global Warming:

Incidentally, and perhaps inconveniently, atmospheric water vapour is over 99% of natural origin.

 

[SS4]

snip

[Citation Needed]

 

[table38]

[Citation Needed]

If only there was some sort of website where anyone could type in a phrase such as "water vapour contribution to global warming" for themselves

 

[SS4]

If only there was some sort of website where anyone could type in a phrase such as "water vapour contribution to global warming" for themselves

If only there was some sort of website which listed it's results by credibility instead of hits

 

[Stewart]

Shhh... the Climate Change Industry really doesn't like anyone talking about Water Vapour.

Let's look at the Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases thought to contribute to Global Warming (contribution by %):

So CO2 looks like the major contributor, even taking into account that four fifths of atmospheric CO2 is naturally occurring.

But by a clever sleight of hand, we managed to accidentally forget about Water Vapour.

Anyway, it's not a gas is it, so we aren't misleading anyone, honest!

Just out of interest, what happens when we create a chart of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases and Water Vapour thought to contribute to Global Warming:

Incidentally, and perhaps inconveniently, atmospheric water vapour is over 99% of natural origin.

Good post. And water vapour is one area even the otherwise-omniscient IPCC admits to having high uncertainty about, that is, they don't know the effect of clouds. I could advise them, clouds on a hot day cool things down, clouds on a cold day warm things up.

 

[Crossover]

I wouldn't mind if it snowed - it is fun to walk in and, to be honest, with the amounts we now get in the UK, not that bad to drive in as long as you are sensible (I know some people who have come a cropper to it by trying to "outrun the snow"!!(

What was the worst bit last year was the prolonged extreme low temperatures, to the point it snowed (lovely), hung about for a day, melted a bit and turned to slush, then we had 4 or so days at a time where the temperature never got above like -2C. Therefore it didn't melt and just got progressively worse. That is the point where walking becomes hard work and driving on ungritted roads becomes really difficult.

It also meant I spent the few days leading up to Christmas trying to sort family out where outlet pipes from combi-boilers had become frozen and blocked and stopped the boiler working and running round with water as mains pipes had frozen and again didn't unfreeze for a few days (and even then it transpired it had caused a burst). Looking back it gave me something to do(!) but I would rather not have it again this year.

Nor were they shut in the 1970s/80s when I went to school - apart from once when I remember it occurred due to the school boiler having failed. Nowadays, it seems we have not much more than a covering of snow and half the local schools are shut.

The school I was at (til 2007) didn't tend to close (in fact, I think the only time it was shut for me was for 2 days when they had a major electrical failure), but since I left, they seem to be closing more often for minor things.

I dare say "health and safety" may have a part to play....

 

[infobleep]

We will only get better prepared for snow if it snows more often. If it snows more often we will become financially viable to prepare for it. It seems no officials likes to talk about it not being financially viable to prepare for snow.

Of course this means I'm hoping it will snow more. I work as a contractor and if I don't work I don't get paid. Yet I still want it to snow. I would like to at least once enjoy being on a train stuck in snow. Well as long as it's one that isn't packed to standing squashed.

The problem last year was things like Soutg West Trains announcing they would be running a normal service tomorrow but there may be some disruptions due to snow. Next day massive snow fall as they try to run trains and can't really do so.

Surprisingly trains to Aldershot from Guildford seemed to be running better than those to London. So imagine a passengers surprise the next day, when due to snow an emergency timetable was introduced, with no trains running to Aldershot.

One's reaction might be, if they could run trains there yesterday when it was actually falling, why not today? I know they were consolidating their resources to keep the main routes open but on the face of it, it didn't look good and of course I saw no reasoned explanation for it suddenly closing. After all the trains seemed to be previously doing better on that line than the main one. So by that argument, the main lime should have been shut instead. I don't think announcing emergency timetables in advance would cost much if they are annoucing there may be disruptions. Depends when they drew up the timetable. May be it really was on the day it caused disruptions.

The only upside was that I had better connections from the west London line and got home 12 minutes quicker than usual! That and they seemed to suddenly be able to run fast trains stopping at Clapham Junction during the rush hour. At that point i wasn't travelling in the peak rush hour but this year I'm likely to be doing so, so it would benefit me. Perhaps it soild snow more often then!

 

[newbie babs]

Brrr-ace yourselves! Britain to shiver in -20C in WEEKS as councils stockpile extra grit

This was in the Mail online Thursday last week.

• 1.4million tonnes of salt has been ordered this year
• Britain is just weeks away from being in the grip of temperatures as low as -20C, forecasters have predicted.
• It comes as a survey from council leaders reveals local authorities are stockpiling thousands of tonnes of extra road salt this year in anticipation of another white winter.
• Britain is being warned to brace itself for wintery conditions and falling snow from the beginning of November.
• James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: 'I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December and January at present.
•
• 'I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter.
• 'Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
• 'I also expect November, December, January and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.'
• Research by the Local Government Association (LGA), which represents more than 350 councils in England and Wales, shows on average local authorities aim to have 1,500 tonnes more salt at the ready to treat roads and pavements than they did at the start of October 2010.
• Each council spread about 3,900 tonnes of salt, on average, last year, while this year councils are armed with about 4,900 tonnes.
• In total, an estimated 1.4million tonnes of salt is expected to be stockpiled this year.

 

[SS4]

Brrr-ace yourselves! Britain to shiver in -20C in WEEKS as councils stockpile extra grit

This was in the Mail online Thursday last week.

• 1.4million tonnes of salt has been ordered this year
• Britain is just weeks away from being in the grip of temperatures as low as -20C, forecasters have predicted.
• It comes as a survey from council leaders reveals local authorities are stockpiling thousands of tonnes of extra road salt this year in anticipation of another white winter.
• Britain is being warned to brace itself for wintery conditions and falling snow from the beginning of November.
• James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: 'I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December and January at present.
•
• 'I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter.
• 'Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
• 'I also expect November, December, January and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.'
• Research by the Local Government Association (LGA), which represents more than 350 councils in England and Wales, shows on average local authorities aim to have 1,500 tonnes more salt at the ready to treat roads and pavements than they did at the start of October 2010.
• Each council spread about 3,900 tonnes of salt, on average, last year, while this year councils are armed with about 4,900 tonnes.
• In total, an estimated 1.4million tonnes of salt is expected to be stockpiled this year.

*KLAXON* Selection Bias Alert *KLAXON*​

Birmingham is forecast to be about +17C which is more indicative. Quoting the Scottish Highland and Island temperature as implying it will cover all the UK is the reason for said alarm

Councils are getting prepared for winter and good on them I say. I could bet my left testicle that the Daily Mail would be amongst the first to criticise had local authorities not prepared.

 

[londonmidland]

Brrr-ace yourselves! Britain to shiver in -20C in WEEKS as councils stockpile extra grit

This was in the Mail online Thursday last week.

• 1.4million tonnes of salt has been ordered this year
• Britain is just weeks away from being in the grip of temperatures as low as -20C, forecasters have predicted.
• It comes as a survey from council leaders reveals local authorities are stockpiling thousands of tonnes of extra road salt this year in anticipation of another white winter.
• Britain is being warned to brace itself for wintery conditions and falling snow from the beginning of November.
• James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: 'I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December and January at present.
•
• 'I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter.
• 'Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
• 'I also expect November, December, January and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.'
• Research by the Local Government Association (LGA), which represents more than 350 councils in England and Wales, shows on average local authorities aim to have 1,500 tonnes more salt at the ready to treat roads and pavements than they did at the start of October 2010.
• Each council spread about 3,900 tonnes of salt, on average, last year, while this year councils are armed with about 4,900 tonnes.
• In total, an estimated 1.4million tonnes of salt is expected to be stockpiled this year.

I can't imagine it being minus 20! It's going to be plus 21 degrees in Leicester tomorrow! :P

 

[newbie babs]

You obviously didn`t read it correctly, it said "in weeks"

 

[londonmidland]

You obviously didn`t read it correctly, it said "in weeks"

I did read it. I just can't believe it, seems so cold!

 

[SS4]

You obviously didn`t read it correctly, it said "in weeks"

In 26 of them it will be hot

 

[newbie babs]

well last week in Sheffield it dropped 12degrees in a week so it`s possible, here last November was horrendous.

 

[SS4]

well last week in Sheffield it dropped 12degrees in a week so it`s possible, here last November was horrendous.

From unseasonably warm weather. Of course it could happen but it is rather unlikely. My issue is not with the temperature itself but the fact the article is applying the coldest parts of the UK and implying it will occur nationwide.

From wikipedia: Selection bias is a statistical bias in which there is an error in choosing the individuals or groups to take part in a scientific study. It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The term "selection bias" most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, resulting from the method of collecting samples. If the selection bias is not taken into account then any conclusions drawn may be wrong.

 

[newbie babs]

I must live on another planet where it snowed that bad last November I could not get into work, buses were stopped for two days, stuck in snow and planes were grounded.

The grit stopped working in Sheffield last November at minus 11,

Unlikely....!!!!!! I have lived long enough to know its very likely

 

[SS4]

Nonetheless I shall be very surprised if -20 is the UK average

 

[newbie babs]

did it say UK average

 

[Butts]

I wouldn't hold out to much hope that preperation by Councils will prevent disruption.

We get snow EVERY year and still get chaotic scenes on our roads , rail and airports.

 

[SS4]

did it say UK average

It hardly has to with all that implication!

Britain to shiver in -20C

Usage of the term Britain implies Great Britain. It would have been more than possible to say "Scotland" or "Highlands" or whichever area it was.
I have been kind by suggesting an average temperature - the headline itself implies that all of Great Britain will be -20C and shivering (because people obviously don't know how to dress up for cold :roll

Sensationalist claptrap. I will eat my woolly hat if it gets to -20 in London, Cardiff and Glasgow (the three capitals of Great Britain)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I wouldn't hold out to much hope that preperation by Councils will prevent disruption.

We get snow EVERY year and still get chaotic scenes on our roads , rail and airports.

Birmingham City Council did OK on the routes I travelled (albeit the A38 and A38(M)). We get chaos because we refuse to invest, my brother went to Helsinki and apparently it was less problematic there - but then Finland expects snow and budgets to counter it.
Council action in this, along with many cases, is damned if you do and damned if you don't

 

[Tomonthetrain]

(because people obviously don't know how to dress up for cold :roll

Sensationalist claptrap. I will eat my woolly hat if it gets to -20 in London, Cardiff and Glasgow (the three capitals of Great Britain)

Would you like ketchup with that hat?

In the event of snow it's shirt tie jeans wooly hat and hiking boots...and in the office a fan on the desk whereas everyone else will have the heating on and scarves/jumpers/coats/wooly hat! Hell camping in snow is good

 

[valenta]

Reduced to wathching a programme on BBC2 last night called "Will it snow," seemingly aiming to predict the likelihood of snow this year.
I think that I was already resigned to the fact at 9pm last night that in an hour I would be no further in understanding whether I should invest in a new sledge for my son, indeed I wasn't.
We must remember that many of the winter months last year (January and particularly February) were the mildest we had seen for some years. The events of the whole winter have been somewhat overshadowed by the period of exceptionally cold weather we had at the end of November going into December.
The cold weather is a result of a movement in the jet stream, something which is very volatile and we cannot predict. It usually does a good job of protecting the UK from exceptionally cold winds that we experienced last year from Siberia, and if this happens again we could be in for another particularly cold spell.
As for the various -20 degrees celcius stories in weeks, and the first heavy snowfalls in October, this is just another lot of tabloid drivel. We could not second guess an exceptionally cold snap until a couple of days before the event.

 

[valenta]

Well, winter has definitely hit some parts of the UK, thanks to our northwesterly wind. Newcastle has had no snow at the moment, and I think that this goes for the majority of the East of the country. Further snow is expected tommorow and Wednesday, with the met office issuing weather warnings of snow. There will be a brief intrerlude around Thursday with temperatures recovering slightly and a band of rain is expected to push across the country, and warmer air takes over. But this is very short lived - much of the warm air is ousted by northwesterly winds by Friday and by Saturday it will be feeling very cold again.
Many places remain very unsure of a white Christmas at the moment, the MO is predicting unsettled weather throughout the period, but whether the temperatures will be cold enough to deliver snow to lower levels is another matter.
Anyone willing to hedge their bets!?

 

[SS4]

Evidently not (assuming your definition of bad is cold)