HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

[Bletchleyite]

Excluding single 805s mopping up TfW's messes, it's very rare. But I never bother with a reservation unless I've got a bike, I just head straight to Coach C. Which on a 45 minute, 3tph shuttle is exactly how things should be - there should be no need to book anything, just board the next train and sit down. Taking HS2 to Birmingham shouldn't be any more complicated than taking the Elizabeth Line to Ealing Broadway.

Probably true to be fair. The Birmingham service has always been a fairly poor fit in the WCML franchise being a short run in a franchise that's mostly about longer runs. Even BR had it branded differently as ICS (InterCity Shuttle).

The idea of having different stock for that and the longer distance stuff makes a lot of sense to be honest. You can cram in the seats for a sub 1hr run, a layout like the 730/2 would be fine, even bin 1st or have it as a slightly nicer 2+2, and no catering (maybe just a free self service pushbutton coffee machine and a fridge of bottled water in 1st). But like for GWR (who didn't do that thanks to DfT) the longer distance services should be more about comfort even if a thin seat is used to get as many in as possible.

Liverpool could risk being the loser here, though, as I can't see them having two 8 car fleets, and 2x8 an hour would be fine for Liverpool, but with journey times the same as Manchester a high density unit wouldn't be appropriate.

As for length though I'd be looking for 12, not 10 car, and lengthen some platforms. Many would fit 300m anyway, most would fit 275m (11 car).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Lumo is looking like a good idea. Once GBR releases some current paths (in 10 years), if GBR supply of tickets is (euphemism alert) "managed", then another operator must surely have grounds to come in. You can't abstract business that GBR chooses to throw away.

The killer there is the 2-track WCML section through Shugborough tunnel.
Unless the "additional infrastructure" mooted involves a bypass of that area, freed up GBR paths won't help because HS2 trains will still be using Shugborough.

 

[Krokodil]

Of course the original plan was for a fleet of "captive" stock that was dedicated to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds services.

 

[HSTEd]

However they are also requiring compulsory reservations. Whatever is the point of a turn-up-and-go shuttle service when you have to make reservations for just one specific departure, and somehow predict just what time you are going to get to obscure Old Oak Common to catch the next one?

I expect compulsory reservations will not actually apply in practice in any case. It's an enormous bureaucratic headache that gains the railway almost nothing.

Especially as standees have some of the highest profit margin of any passengers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I expect compulsory reservations will not actually apply in practice in any case

With the various "trials" in place at the moment involving quota controlled tickets being the main thing (and other ones likely to be along soon) it's fairly likely that people will just be priced into de-facto compulsory reservation by almost all affordable tickets featuring that, rather than there being a Penalty Fare or similar issued if you board with an Anytime ticket and no seat reservation.

LNER is pretty much already there (unlike Avanti, though it's going that way given how quiet coaches G and U are on 11 car sets). Hardly anyone travels on LNER without a reservation now, particularly on the "trial" routes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Sep 2026 ==

Especially as standees have some of the highest profit margin of any passengers.

There won't be many if any standees. They aren't a regular feature on Avanti West Coast now unless there's serious disruption. I can't remember the last time I didn't get a seat on an Avanti train - the only time that really happened was the Friday first off peak trains, and that has been fixed by removing the Friday peak restrictions. Aside from that it might occasionally happen on a short form 10 to 5 on a Chester/North Wales service, but compulsory reservations (whether enforced or by pricing) don't fix that.

I don't know where you're based, but if it's on GWR most users of that service probably have no concept of just how little standing there is on the WCML and ECML, largely due to the Reading commuter thing. Apart from the Cornish services GWR is much more like a fancier, bigger Chiltern or WMT than a true intercity operation, it just has fancy trains with pointy noses. TPE is maybe comparable too?

 

[HSTEd]

There won't be many if any standees. They aren't a regular feature on Avanti West Coast now unless there's serious disruption. I can't remember the last time I didn't get a seat on an Avanti train - the only time that really happened was the Friday first off peak trains, and that has been fixed by removing the Friday peak restrictions. Aside from that it might occasionally happen on a short form 10 to 5 on a Chester/North Wales service, but compulsory reservations (whether enforced or by pricing) don't fix that.

I don't know where you're based, but if it's on GWR most users of that service probably have no concept of just how little standing there is on the WCML and ECML, largely due to the Reading commuter thing. Apart from the Cornish services GWR is much more like a fancier, bigger Chiltern or WMT than a true intercity operation, it just has fancy trains with pointy noses. TPE is maybe comparable too?

Historically the ECML, but I've been in TPE land for quite a while.

But I think disruption seems to be getting more common as I get older!

I'm not sure if the current Avanti/ICWC service experience is really the best comparator for future Birmingham-London operations though.
With a journey time of only ~45 minutes end to end, I can't help but feel that this would fundamentally alter the character of the service relative to now.

After all, thats more like the journey time from London to Guildford than any big 'intercity' journey today. Well apart from things like London-Peterborough but that might be the exception that proves the rule!

 

[stuu]

This was basically what they did with the APT when they thought having two unconnected units (you couldn't walk through the power cars) was actually a problem.

That sort of approach is a bit dated, though. These days you'd probably mostly do it on your phone with a TVM option for the few remaining refuseniks. Or just not buy until you know which train you're using - if the capacity is very high the prices can't be high or you won't fill it.

Yes I accidentally missed out that the idea would be to do this all on your phone, and, speculating, it could even be done automatically via the app once it knows you are in/near the station

 

[Bletchleyite]

Historically the ECML, but I've been in TPE land for quite a while.

Yeah, TPE isn't an intercity operation, it's a commuter/regional operation with trains with pointy noses (well some). The overcrowding on that isn't what it looks like on the intercity mainlines except GWR, and GWR's Bristol/South Wales services are more like TPE than LNER.

But I think disruption seems to be getting more common as I get older!

Disruption is a bit different to be fair. Unless you start "bumping" people like on planes and forking out a fortune on stuff like hotels, disruption will always mean standees.

I'm not sure if the current Avanti/ICWC service experience is really the best comparator for future Birmingham-London operations though.
With a journey time of only ~45 minutes end to end, I can't help but feel that this would fundamentally alter the character of the service relative to now.

I think there is already talk of better integrating the WMT and Avanti service on that particular route even pre HS2. It is different from the rest of Avanti. That said, it is not a route on which aiming for standees is appropriate (other than Euston-MKC and vice versa at commuter times to some extent, but even that's a bit far). Standing for 20 minutes max is the usual barometer for what is acceptable.

 

[Sorcerer]

With the exception of the Scotland via West Midlands services, London-Birmingham is arguably more interregional than intercity. The LNR Liverpool route isn't much longer in distance, and all trains between Manchester and Birmingham are part of CrossCountry's longer intercity journeys. If it weren't the capital and second city I've no doubt it would've been classed similarly to those two.

For HS2 it is interesting because while capital-second city seems like a common approach to high-speed rail (and often times even the first route), the distance between Tokyo and Osaka, Paris and Lyon, Spain and Barcelona, Rome and Milan, and Beijing and Shanghai are considerably greater than that of London and Birmingham (and no, despite Andy Burnham's gimmicks, Manchester is still not definitively the second city as of now).

 

[3RDGEN]

Lumo is looking like a good idea. Once GBR releases some current paths (in 10 years),

They will not be releasing any WCML paths north of Handsacre so there will be no spare capacity for LUMO to use, apart from extending their services to 10 car operation.

So the new HS2 units will replace the 390s and 807s completely, i.e. they will run services from Euston without touching HS2 track?

Makes perfect sense now we have the reduced HS2 network, initially use them on WCML to bed them in and release 80x's, then HS2 Old Oak to Birmingham Curzon Street and finally Old Oak / Euston HS2 - Handsacre - WCML for the current destinations.

 

[SynthD]

When they talk about seat reservations required, even if they are given last minute, will that apply in disruption too? Bletchleyite says there are only standees on Avanti in disruption, it's not clear to me if that is permissible in the HS2 tunnels.

 

[absolutelymilk]

They will not be releasing any WCML paths north of Handsacre so there will be no spare capacity for LUMO to use, apart from extending their services to 10 car operation.

Makes perfect sense now we have the reduced HS2 network, initially use them on WCML to bed them in and release 80x's, then HS2 Old Oak to Birmingham Curzon Street and finally Old Oak / Euston HS2 - Handsacre - WCML for the current destinations.

Indeed, but I assumed there would be a significant increase in total number of services once HS2 opened, e.g. three Birmingham services replaced by three HS2 services plus one classic line service. Obviously HS2 being faster will mean fewer trains are required per service, but I didn't think it would be such a big effect as to allow an increase in services with a reduction in full-length units (by my calculations, 66 down to 42.5)

 

[Sorcerer]

When they talk about seat reservations required, even if they are given last minute, will that apply in disruption too? Bletchleyite says there are only standees on Avanti in disruption, it's not clear to me if that is permissible in the HS2 tunnels.

Might depend on how transferable some of the disruption is. A service running via HS2 will be unlikely to absorb any demand on an LNR service south of Birmingham. Even so I don't expect to see them budging on compulsory reservations.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

Makes perfect sense now we have the reduced HS2 network, initially use them on WCML to bed them in and release 80x's, then HS2 Old Oak to Birmingham Curzon Street and finally Old Oak / Euston HS2 - Handsacre - WCML for the current destinations.

Have they abandoned or delayed the use of continental loading gauge stock on HS2? Given the short journey times, they could fit these out to commuter specification for an Old Oak Common to Curzon Street shuttle.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Have they abandoned or delayed the use of continental loading gauge stock on HS2? Given the short journey times, they could fit these out to commuter specification for an Old Oak Common to Curzon Street shuttle.

That went away long ago because it would be (thread crossover warning!) a microfleet for now.

 

[Sorcerer]

Have they abandoned or delayed the use of continental loading gauge stock on HS2? Given the short journey times, they could fit these out to commuter specification for an Old Oak Common to Curzon Street shuttle.

With Phase 1 alone it wouldn't be worth having captive stock built to continental loading gauge. I think at a minimum London-Manchester would be when you could start justifying a captive fleet.

 

[fishwomp]

They will not be releasing any WCML paths north of Handsacre so there will be no spare capacity for LUMO to use, apart from extending their services to 10 car operation.

True enough. The only other opportunity is in picking up the Wolves, New St, Coventry, Rugby etc business. At 1h20 from New St with airport and Cov stop, vs 49 mins on HS2, anyone coming from a connecting service into New St (eg. cross-city line, Walsall, might find a turn-up-and-go from the same station to be quite appealing for Euston - although I doubt that that speed and frequency will be on the cards at New St.

Old Oak might still turn out to be more of a draw in the long run than Euston, worth legging it across Brum instead of across London when you get there.

 

[Krokodil]

There won't be many if any standees.

At 3,000 seats per hour to Birmingham I very much hope not.

Yes I accidentally missed out that the idea would be to do this all on your phone, and, speculating, it could even be done automatically via the app once it knows you are in/near the station

I really resent the way that the suggested solution for every problem in modern life is an app. Why does everything need to be complicated to the extent that it then requires an app to be usable again?

You know what? Given that Curzon Street will be exclusively for the use of HS2 trains, and that Euston's platform gates will presumably know what train they apply to, I see no reason that the Birmingham trains at least can't become contactless. With 3,000 seats an hour to fill, fares can come down quite a lot (possibly around the Chiltern Super Off Peak price) which wouldn't be much more than a trip on Heathrow Express. Richard Parker's quip about how Birmingham would basically be Zone 5 could become a reality!

Yeah, TPE isn't an intercity operation, it's a commuter/regional operation with trains with pointy noses (well some).

InterRegio as the Swiss would call it.

That said, it is not a route on which aiming for standees is appropriate (other than Euston-MKC and vice versa at commuter times to some extent, but even that's a bit far).

From shuffling through the passenger loadings data, it seems to me that MKC commuters take up a significant amount of capacity on trains from further north, so Manchester passengers are being fleeced for some of the most expensive Anytime tickets in the country to leave space for the commuters. HS2 would solve this issue by segmenting the two markets properly and providing ample capacity for each.

With Phase 1 alone it wouldn't be worth having captive stock built to continental loading gauge. I think at a minimum London-Manchester would be when you could start justifying a captive fleet.

You'd really need Leeds too, hence why the captive fleet was pulled when the Eastern branch was shelved. Unless you can get a significant increase in capacity from the captive sets (i.e. if they were double-deck) then it wouldn't be worth bothering with the seperate fleet.

 

[Bletchleyite]

From shuffling through the passenger loadings data, it seems to me that MKC commuters take up a significant amount of capacity on trains from further north, so Manchester passengers are being fleeced for some of the most expensive Anytime tickets in the country to leave space for the commuters.

This resentment is misplaced. The reason Manchester-Euston Anytimes are so expensive is that this is more profitable. You get more by charging one person £350 than three people £100 each.

MKC commuters are just icing on the cake (almost all of them use WMT services anyway, particularly northbound). They are not what is driving it.

It's nothing like Reading - the volumes are small in comparison.

 

[HSTEd]

This resentment is misplaced. The reason Manchester-Euston Anytimes are so expensive is that this is more profitable. You get more by charging one person £350 than three people £100 each.

MKC commuters are just icing on the cake (almost all of them use WMT services anyway, particularly northbound). They are not what is driving it.

It's nothing like Reading - the volumes are small in comparison.

I think its probably due its own thread, but I am not convinced the West Coast Main Line pricing strategy (with it's extreme focus on market segmentation) is particularly sane in terms of minimising the net cost to the taxpayer overall. But as I said, probably due its own thread.

 

[Krokodil]

This resentment is misplaced.

It's not really resentment, it's not affected my journeys. Just an observation by looking at passenger loadings.

The point stands that HS2 will benefit both groups.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The point stands that HS2 will benefit both groups.

Absolutely. The growth of Milton Keynes is one of the key reasons for HS2 Phase 1. Removing some InterCity trains from the current WCML allow for an improved service calling at MKC of both middle distance and local services.

 

[Sorcerer]

You'd really need Leeds too, hence why the captive fleet was pulled when the Eastern branch was shelved. Unless you can get a significant increase in capacity from the captive sets (i.e. if they were double-deck) then it wouldn't be worth bothering with the seperate fleet.

Ultimately yes, I think the full HS2 would've made the most sense for a captive fleet, but I think at a bare minimum running between London and Manchester could've justified it as well albeit with fewer of them. Running to Crewe is the bare minimum the route itself should go for, but since it's not end-to-end it would be hard to justify a captive fleet since the captive end-to-end journeys would be London and Birmingham.

 

[gravitystorm]

Wilde doesnt see track work starting until 2030 which i find staggering

Yes, this is striking to me too. I'd love to see what the Gantt chart looks like for the civils remaining. Is there something in particular that's pushing the critical path so far out? Or are there lots of things that are preventing rail systems starting in 2029? They are reserving another 3 full calendar years to finish off what they are already working on. Maybe it's Birmingham Interchange? That's about the only thing along the line of route that stands out to me as being something that might prevent track laying from starting.

The section on Euston - I'm not sure whether to be happy that it's progressing, or concerned that they seem to still be in the planning-to-have-a-plan stage.

 

[SynthD]

Is there something in particular that's pushing the critical path so far out?

Lower yearly spending.

 

[3RDGEN]

Indeed, but I assumed there would be a significant increase in total number of services once HS2 opened, e.g. three Birmingham services replaced by three HS2 services plus one classic line service. Obviously HS2 being faster will mean fewer trains are required per service, but I didn't think it would be such a big effect as to allow an increase in services with a reduction in full-length units (by my calculations, 66 down to 42.5)

Can't see the need for a classic service to the West Midlands so 3 or 4 HS2 services per hour would give a significant capacity increase, the 390's are awful for seating capacity too. Given the HS2 stock can't work the North Wales route it's not clear if the 805's will be replaced, I would expect them to remain as now maybe running as 10 cars to Chester.

True enough. The only other opportunity is in picking up the Wolves, New St, Coventry, Rugby etc business. At 1h20 from New St with airport and Cov stop, vs 49 mins on HS2, anyone coming from a connecting service into New St (eg. cross-city line, Walsall, might find a turn-up-and-go from the same station to be quite appealing for Euston - although I doubt that that speed and frequency will be on the cards at New St.

Old Oak might still turn out to be more of a draw in the long run than Euston, worth legging it across Brum instead of across London when you get there.

The classic line fast lines should be filled with the current LNWR services allowing the slow lines to be filled with freight trains, that's the current selling point of the HS2 White Elephant.

Removing some InterCity trains from the current WCML

I would hope next to all the current InterCity services are removed bar the North Wales ones which are run with stock that will not be HS2 compatible and perhaps a Manchester service each hour. The North Wales can be doubled to 10 cars and provide connections at Crewe for the North West / Scotland. Milton Keynes / Rugby can be serviced by LNWR which will have near free run of the classic fast lines.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ultimately yes, I think the full HS2 would've made the most sense for a captive fleet, but I think at a bare minimum running between London and Manchester could've justified it as well albeit with fewer of them. Running to Crewe is the bare minimum the route itself should go for, but since it's not end-to-end it would be hard to justify a captive fleet since the captive end-to-end journeys would be London and Birmingham.

The other advantage of UK gauge sets is that you can "divert" onto the existing WCML in the event of engineering work on HS2.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Sep 2026 ==

Can't see the need for a classic service to the West Midlands

Presumably there's a big gap between London and Brum, and places like Watford, MK, Rugby and Coventry don't exist?

Of course there is a need for a classic line fast service, and two per hour is the main proposal post HS2.

 

[Falcon1200]

Having a non-standardised fleet with some units of the same class being longer than others doesn't half frustrate me. We already see some capacity issues from the mixing of nine and eleven-coach Pendolino trains when short formations occur,

Yes indeed - From personal experience on the WCML it is a complete lottery whether a 9 or 11 car Pendolino turns up on any given train.

 

[3RDGEN]

and places like Watford, MK, Rugby and Coventry don't exist?

Coventry will lose passengers to HS2 and the other three are that close to London, in time, why do they need a true InterCity service? We can't spend £100Billion+ on HS2 and then use the WCML as now, HS2 provides new fast line to Birmingham and Handsacre for the North West and Scotland, the classic fasts can be used by an expanded LNWR 110mph service pattern and the classic slows become freight lines in effect with the all stop LNWR's.

 

[HSTEd]

Presumably there's a big gap between London and Brum, and places like Watford, MK, Rugby and Coventry don't exist?

Of course there is a need for a classic line fast service, and two per hour is the main proposal post HS2.

I think a big chunk of Coventry (and probably Rugby) traffic will defect to HS2 from Birmingham International.
As to the residual service, I could see an argument for something like:

1. All stations to Watford Junction on the DCs on Overground
2. First stop Watford Junction (maybe with a stop at Harrow and Wealdstone) to Milton Keynes
3. First stop Milton Keynes, then all stations to Birmingham/Wolverhampton/Stafford via Northampton.

Services 2 and 3 would be run using a unified fleet of flat front rolling stock and the classic "fast" would cease to exist as such.