HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

[MichaelDono]

Will HS2 use FRMCS or GSM-R given the new planned entry into service? I would have assumed GSM-R will be far too obsolete to install new by this point although that would seem to conflict with the planned ETCS system version of v2.1 (i.e. akin to baseline 3.6.0) which I think doesn’t fully support anything but GSM-R?

Perhaps there’s an expectation of a fully FRMCS compatible version “backdated” to a system version which is otherwise seen as mature?

 

[The Planner]

Will HS2 use FRMCS or GSM-R given the new planned entry into service? I would have assumed GSM-R will be far too obsolete to install new by this point although that would seem to conflict with the planned ETCS system version of v2.1 (i.e. akin to baseline 3.6.0) which I think doesn’t fully support anything but GSM-R?

Perhaps there’s an expectation of a fully FRMCS compatible version “backdated” to a system version which is otherwise seen as mature?

I expect interoperability will play a part, why have something different if nowhere else on the WCML does?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

HS2 spend of £24Billion was approved under the spending review last year, approx £6Billion per year, as such there is no more money to do extra works until 2029. If you work on continuing at that spend rate beyond 2029 then you see where 2036ish comes from, it's money and resources which HS2 is taking from everywhere else.

For sure budget is being artificially constrained but given the reported progress on civils works its hard to comprehend that they need to spend another 10B to finish the civils and even if its that much that would still leave a few billion for railways systems. The other fact is all these contracts have been let, many for several years now, so HS2 is paying for those project teams. Yes they slow down spend but then they will suffer contractual consequences from delayed start of works and prolongation of works now along with inflationary impacts. Be interesting to know how much extra that has added to the overall cost.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2026 ==

For sure budget is being artificially constrained but given the reported progress on civils works its hard to comprehend that they need to spend another 10B to finish the civils and even if its that much that would still leave a few billion for railways systems. The other fact is all these contracts have been let, many for several years now, so HS2 is paying for those project teams. Yes they slow down spend but then they will suffer contractual consequences from delayed start of works and prolongation of works now along with inflationary impacts. Be interesting to know how much extra that has added to the overall cost.

In another example of what delaying this project is costing is that HS2 are now letting a £1B contract to maintain the assets that have already been constructed !!

https://www.constructionenquirer.co...terim-assets-safeguarding-works-job-on-radar/

HS2 has launched early market engagement on a £1bn programme of maintenance and safeguarding contracts to look after completed sections of the railway before systems installation work begins.

Project reset forces need to maintain and protect existing main works assets ahead of rail systems work starting

The proposed Interim Maintenance Contracts are expected to be worth £1bn over 10 years from December 2027 through to the end of 2037.

The move reflects changes emerging from the Government’s HS2 reset programme and will create a dedicated capability to manage infrastructure handed over by the main works civils contractors before the High-Speed Rail Systems teams mobilise.

Core duties will cover land management, environmental and landscape maintenance, temporary facilities management and civil engineering infrastructure upkeep.

 

[yorksrob]

I've read a concerning interview in Modern Railways June 2026 with Chris Gibb, who has been let go from the DfT for criticising the proposed train lengths. To quote from the interview (I won't quote too much as I don't want to steal MR's thunder), Mr Gibb states:

"You can have 43×10 coach trains, or 54×8 coach trains, or anything between 43 and 54. Whichever way you cut it, it's about a third less capacity than today. 684 vehicles today will be replaced by 432 vehicles".

If this is the case, it will be a disaster - the whole point of HS2 was supposed to be to increase capacity, not reduce it.

I guess the question is how can HST in it's current stub can be altered to actually increase capacity and how can the Government/DfT be persuaded (shamed into) making sure that when HS2 is completed, the WCML see's the large capacity increase that is the project's raison d'etre.

 

[Sorcerer]

I guess the question is how can HST in it's current stub can be altered to actually increase capacity and how can the Government/DfT be persuaded (shamed into) making sure that when HS2 is completed, the WCML see's the large capacity increase that is the project's raison d'etre.

Either change the order so that the replacement units can be 250-300m long (275 minimum for Manchester) and abandon any hope of 400m long trains before 2050, or commit to completing the entire project so the current order can help increase capacity in the long-term while also abandoning any hope of 400m long trains before 2050. For full WCML capacity relief, the route needs to at least go as far as Crewe or you will still have major bottlenecks.

 

[yorksrob]

Either change the order so that the replacement units can be 250-300m long (275 minimum for Manchester) and abandon any hope of 400m long trains before 2050, or commit to completing the entire project so the current order can help increase capacity in the long-term while also abandoning any hope of 400m long trains before 2050. For full WCML capacity relief, the route needs to at least go as far as Crewe or you will still have major bottlenecks.

Indeed.

I'd be in favour of extending the line further North as a conventional TGV type route.

Could they build some 400m long and others shorter ?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

For full WCML capacity relief, the route needs to at least go as far as Crewe or you will still have major bottlenecks.

I most definitely agree.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Either change the order so that the replacement units can be 250-300m long (275 minimum for Manchester) and abandon any hope of 400m long trains before 2050, or commit to completing the entire project so the current order can help increase capacity in the long-term while also abandoning any hope of 400m long trains before 2050. For full WCML capacity relief, the route needs to at least go as far as Crewe or you will still have major bottlenecks.

The entire order needs to re thought as a small captive HS2 fleet + Pendolino replacement. Yes it will a variation and cost buts whats a few more million now to get the right solution to serve this side of the UK.

 

[yorksrob]

If they get it wrong (as they seem to be heading) it will be a lot worse. But how many politicians and civil servants will still be in place by then !

To be fair to Dr Beeching, he appeared on TV to defend his policies in the 1980's. Will the current crop do the same.

 

[JonathanH]

The whole thing is a bit ridiculous. The Pendolinos appear to remain reliable trains, and although they are a little claustrophobic inside do a good job in transporting passengers quickly between destinations. They certainly don't appear to be life expired. Is the HS2 rolling stock order being pushed back as far in time as it can be?

 

[class26]

I've read a concerning interview in Modern Railways June 2026 with Chris Gibb, who has been let go from the DfT for criticising the proposed train lengths. To quote from the interview (I won't quote too much as I don't want to steal MR's thunder), Mr Gibb states:

"You can have 43×10 coach trains, or 54×8 coach trains, or anything between 43 and 54. Whichever way you cut it, it's about a third less capacity than today. 684 vehicles today will be replaced by 432 vehicles".

If this is the case, it will be a disaster - the whole point of HS2 was supposed to be to increase capacity, not reduce it.

I guess the question is how can HST in it's current stub can be altered to actually increase capacity and how can the Government/DfT be persuaded (shamed into) making sure that when HS2 is completed, the WCML see's the large capacity increase that is the project's raison d'etre.

But if comparing todays seat numbers by the numbers the new trains will offer we need to remember some existing services will remain on the WCML to serve such destinations as Coventry etc etc so it isn`t such a simple calculation if I have understood it correctly

 

[yorksrob]

But if comparing todays seat numbers by the numbers the new trains will offer we need to remember some existing services will remain on the WCML to serve such destinations as Coventry etc etc so it isn`t such a simple calculation if I have understood it correctly

The way I've read Chris Gibb's article is that there won't be additional services remaining on the WCML.

There will be fewer services overall.

 

[class26]

There will be as places such as Coventry, Rugby, Milton keynes will still require fast services

 

[Nottingham59]

Either change the order so that the replacement units can be 250-300m long (275 minimum for Manchester) and abandon any hope of 400m long trains before 2050, or commit to completing the entire project so the current order can help increase capacity in the long-term while also abandoning any hope of 400m long trains before 2050.

Just build 400m platforms in Manchester on the site of the already-designed HS2 station, and construct a viaduct to connect those platforms to the lines to Stockport. It's quire possible to do that without compromising any future tunnel from Piccadilly out to the Airport.

Then build 400m platforms at Crewe, Preston, Carlisle as originally planned.

For full WCML capacity relief, the route needs to at least go as far as Crewe or you will still have major bottlenecks.

Continuing to Hixon would relieve almost all the capacity constraint at Colwich.

 

[The Planner]

Just build 400m platforms in Manchester on the site of the already-designed HS2 station, and construct a viaduct to connect those platforms to the lines to Stockport. It's quire possible to do that without compromising any future tunnel from Piccadilly out to the Airport.

Then build 400m platforms at Crewe, Preston, Carlisle as originally planned.



Continuing to Hixon would relieve almost all the capacity constraint at Colwich.

Platforms A and B are planned there now at Picc.

 

[Nottingham59]

Platforms A and B are planned there now at Picc.

Do you know where will these be located? There's space on the existing deck for long platforms Zero and Minus One, where the good sidings used to be. Are they any plans published? How will they accommodate traffic arriving from Guide Bridge and Marple?

 

[The Planner]

Do you know where will these be located? There's space on the existing deck for long platforms Zero and Minus One, where the good sidings used to be. Are they any plans published? How will they accommodate traffic arriving from Guide Bridge and Marple?

On the deck next to P1. They will just join the Eastern lines I expect.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Public Accounts Committee had HS2 in session on 14th September

Public Accounts Committee Oral evidence: Delivering HS2 and Euston

Some observations Ive lifted from the transcript

Wilde doesnt see track work starting until 2030 which i find staggering

At the end of the day, we want the civil engineering completed in 2029, and I want to start laying the track in March 2030, which means the civil engineers need to complete their work to the right quality and allow the systems to mobilise.

The DfT Director General Major Rail Projects Group acknowledges that something has to be done about train lengths and its under discussion with rolling stock supplier. Resolution of this has no time limit but they indicate sometime next year.

It is absolutely true that, if we had no mitigation, shorter trains would give us less capacity, but that is not where we are planning to end up. There are a couple of guiding principles in terms of the wider reset and the work we are doing, and this is the lens through which we look at all key decisions. One is that we can deliver on the Secretary of State’s requirement to do so as soon as we can and at the lowest reasonable cost.
The second is that we create a piece of infrastructure that properly integrates into the wider network. That is absolutely essential. The third bit is to make sure that we do not block off the ability to expand the network and to have trains in the future. Those three things are the guiding principles.
That requires us to have rolling stock that can manage all those things and work on the captive network between, eventually, Euston and Birmingham, as well as then to go beyond Birmingham.

The Euston section revealed nothing of substance just telling us they're putting a new team in place to build the station.

HS2 were pressed on delay to land sales on the cancelled sections which haven't yet started. DfT reps did state that some 200 properties would be excluded from Birmingham to Manchester section to support Northern Powerhouse Rail.

 

[williamn]

Depressing observations from Chris Gibb, formerly of HS2:

“they are negotiating to increase the fleet from 432 carriages to 530 carriages. This will provide a fleet of 60 trains, of which 25 will be 250m (ten-carriages) for Glasgow and Manchester to London services. This fleet will replace the 644 Class 390 and 807 vehicles, in part to provide depot space to maintain the new trains. Washwood Heath's contract and planning permission will be varied to have 250m facilities. Will 530 carriages replace 644 carriages and provide more seats and faster journeys on all routes? With no kitchens, limited luggage space, tewer tables etc. there may be a tew more on some routes, but no room for growth. So compulsory reservations will be used to suppress and constrain demand. The two extra carriages will be unpowered, so the weight will add up to eight minutes to the remaining Glasgow to London hourly journey, and they will not tilt.

Even with ETCS and £200m spent on track changes they will be much slower than a new tilting train would be on that route, which would not only run up to 140mph but could be twelve-coaches long: enough seats for passenger volume growth to drive real economic growth in Scotland and Manchester. It won't be possible to easily add either more services or carriages later: this plan will use up all the track capacity on HS2”

 

[Sorcerer]

Depressing observations from Chris Gibb, formerly of HS2:

“they are negotiating to increase the fleet from 432 carriages to 530 carriages. This will provide a fleet of 60 trains, of which 25 will be 250m (ten-carriages) for Glasgow and Manchester to London services. This fleet will replace the 644 Class 390 and 807 vehicles, in part to provide depot space to maintain the new trains. Washwood Heath's contract and planning permission will be varied to have 250m facilities. Will 530 carriages replace 644 carriages and provide more seats and faster journeys on all routes? With no kitchens, limited luggage space, tewer tables etc. there may be a tew more on some routes, but no room for growth. So compulsory reservations will be used to suppress and constrain demand. The two extra carriages will be unpowered, so the weight will add up to eight minutes to the remaining Glasgow to London hourly journey, and they will not tilt.

Even with ETCS and £200m spent on track changes they will be much slower than a new tilting train would be on that route, which would not only run up to 140mph but could be twelve-coaches long: enough seats for passenger volume growth to drive real economic growth in Scotland and Manchester. It won't be possible to easily add either more services or carriages later: this plan will use up all the track capacity on HS2”

Having a non-standardised fleet with some units of the same class being longer than others doesn't half frustrate me. We already see some capacity issues from the mixing of nine and eleven-coach Pendolino trains when short formations occur, so having mixed-length 895s will just invite the same problems. I know not every service needs a long train but no rail planner ever said "I regret having this much capacity".

 

[HSTEd]

If they ran Birmingham services as a no frills shuttle, that would probably allow significant increases in passenger capacity with a reduced number of vehicles.
Probably not sensible to offer a buffet on a service of 45-ish minutes anyway!

But I expect that would only save a few dozen vehicles. Today's 11-car pendolino capacity is probably comparable to a 200m short-distance optimised set, and they could potentially do a loop in only two hours compared to more like three today.

Six sets of eight is 48 vehicles, compared to nine sets of eleven for 99 vehicles.

 

[absolutelymilk]

Depressing observations from Chris Gibb, formerly of HS2:

“they are negotiating to increase the fleet from 432 carriages to 530 carriages. This will provide a fleet of 60 trains, of which 25 will be 250m (ten-carriages) for Glasgow and Manchester to London services. This fleet will replace the 644 Class 390 and 807 vehicles, in part to provide depot space to maintain the new trains. Washwood Heath's contract and planning permission will be varied to have 250m facilities."

So the new HS2 units will replace the 390s and 807s completely, i.e. they will run services from Euston without touching HS2 track? That doesn't sound ideal! Minor pros are that it might make things easier in terms of standardisation, and potentially the 807s could be used for open access WCML services?

 

[fishwomp]

That doesn't sound ideal!

Look on the bright side. This means that for the next 8 years, there will be reasonably sufficient rolling stock. Possibly longer (who calls these people doomsayers?)

Minor pros are that it might make things easier in terms of standardisation, and potentially the 807s could be used for open access WCML services?

Lumo is looking like a good idea. Once GBR releases some current paths (in 10 years), if GBR supply of tickets is (euphemism alert) "managed", then another operator must surely have grounds to come in. You can't abstract business that GBR chooses to throw away.

 

[The Planner]

So the new HS2 units will replace the 390s and 807s completely, i.e. they will run services from Euston without touching HS2 track? That doesn't sound ideal! Minor pros are that it might make things easier in terms of standardisation, and potentially the 807s could be used for open access WCML services?

That was always going to happen as it makes sense. Use them on WCML services prior to HS2 and iron out any kinks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lumo is looking like a good idea. Once GBR releases some current paths (in 10 years), if GBR supply of tickets is (euphemism alert) "managed", then another operator must surely have grounds to come in. You can't abstract business that GBR chooses to throw away.

That's all a bit Spanish, isn't it? Hard to criticise people competing with RENFE when it chooses to throw away business by offering a grossly undercapacity service and masking that by way of compulsory reservations.

As for 807s they'd be ideal in number and length to move to Manchester Airport-Scotland and boost capacity there a bit. The 5s get very busy.

 

[Taunton]

If they ran Birmingham services as a no frills shuttle, that would probably allow significant increases in passenger capacity with a reduced number of vehicles.
Probably not sensible to offer a buffet on a service of 45-ish minutes anyway!

However they are also requiring compulsory reservations. Whatever is the point of a turn-up-and-go shuttle service when you have to make reservations for just one specific departure, and somehow predict just what time you are going to get to obscure Old Oak Common to catch the next one?

 

[Bletchleyite]

However they are also requiring compulsory reservations. Whatever is the point of a turn-up-and-go shuttle service when you have to make reservations for just one specific departure, and somehow predict just what time you are going to get to obscure Old Oak Common to catch the next one?

Compulsory reservations does not mean "compulsory booking three days in advance", it just means they only sell the seats. When was the last time you didn't get a seat on an Avanti West Coast service? I can't remember the last time I didn't, and we're talking about having more seats (by cramming them in a bit for the short journey), not fewer.

Buy your ticket when you know which train you'll take and it's not a great issue - as long as they don't go for a punitive pricing scheme, but if there's lots of capacity why do that?

There are services on which compulsory reservations would be an issue in that sense such as the Manchester Airport-Scotlands, which do actually "sell out" regularly, but most Avanti services do not.

At present, two Pendolinos an hour are providing plenty of capacity for Euston-Birmingham (the third semifast isn't of interest for those passengers, that's for intermediates, unless they actively price onto services with known spare capacity). Up it to three or even four and high density 8 car units would be plenty at any time of day.

 

[stuu]

I did see a confidential report some years ago around ticketing. One of the suggestions was that people would buy a ticket and then check in at the station and be allocated a seat on the next available train

 

[Bletchleyite]

I did see a confidential report some years ago around ticketing. One of the suggestions was that people would buy a ticket and then check in at the station and be allocated a seat on the next available train

This was basically what they did with the APT when they thought having two unconnected units (you couldn't walk through the power cars) was actually a problem.

That sort of approach is a bit dated, though. These days you'd probably mostly do it on your phone with a TVM option for the few remaining refuseniks. Or just not buy until you know which train you're using - if the capacity is very high the prices can't be high or you won't fill it.

 

[Krokodil]

When was the last time you didn't get a seat on an Avanti West Coast service?

Excluding single 805s mopping up TfW's messes, it's very rare. But I never bother with a reservation unless I've got a bike, I just head straight to Coach C. Which on a 45 minute, 3tph shuttle is exactly how things should be - there should be no need to book anything, just board the next train and sit down. Taking HS2 to Birmingham shouldn't be any more complicated than taking the Elizabeth Line to Ealing Broadway.