Climate adaptation challenges facing a railway built for a very different world?

[minimann]

Moderator note: Split from

Lewes derailment thread - Thursday 13th August

Seeing early reports of a derailment in the Lewes area. 1F36 hasn't moved in some time Edited to comply with rules Sources: Company log Traksy

www.railforums.co.uk

From the suggestions above wasn't something similar experienced in the recent Spanish incident where the driver didn't realise/wasn't notified an incident had occured further back (most likely due to the light in that case). Naturally thoughts with all involved.

If, and it's a big if, this is climate related I do hope we consider a proportionate response and start to take seriously - with appropriate investment - the climate adaptation challenges facing a railway built for a very different world.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

If, and it's a big if, this is climate related I do hope we consider a proportionate response and start to take seriously - with appropriate investment - the climate adaptation challenges facing a railway built for a very different world.

And what would a proportionate response be?

 

[norbitonflyer]

From the suggestions above wasn't something similar experienced in the recent Spanish incident where the driver didn't realise/wasn't notified an incident had occured further back (most likely due to the light in that case). Naturally thoughts with all involved.

Wasnt there an incident in Manchester recently when a freight train ran derailed for some distance without the driver realising, yntil a coupling parted.

 

[deltic]

And what would a proportionate response be?

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Wasnt there an incident in Manchester recently when a freight train ran derailed for some distance without the driver realising, yntil a coupling parted.

Yes. September 2024. Audenshaw area. Track closed for around 8 weeks. Cause was reportedly due to a section of the track having widened after a number of retaining screws had failed.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

Sadly, I fear you are correct.

 

[SynthD]

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

To know how that counts as a proportionate response, what temperature do you have in mind, and how wide an area is closed for one temperature reading? How much must it lower to reopen the line?

 

[speedy1]

Great British Railways: let the train take the strain, but only in March, April#, May, September^ and October*

For everything else, there's the road network.

*Depending how many leaves fall
^After the kids are back at school
#If there isn't too much rain

 

[aaronspence]

For everything else, there's the road network.**

** if it hasnt melted

 

[HSTEd]

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

The way things are going those temperatures could easily continue for weeks a time.

If you start withdrawing services on mass for weeks a year, people will start to question why the taxpayer is providing a billion pounds a month in subsidies. The railway will lose the political argument - and if it does it is doomed.

The railway will have to learn to operate at least the existing level of passenger service, in what would today be considered extreme conditions, without serious increase in subsidy.
If it cannot do this, it is ultimately condemned to a long slow death.

Freight services do not have anything like the same level of political resonance in my view - and in any case aggregates shipments during extreme temperatures seem futile as noone will be building anything.

 

[Ashfordian6]

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

Much more likely the solution will be speed restrictions, and this happens already

Obviously this could lead to cancellations due to services running too far behind time.

 

[Annetts key]

So, if the issue is rails buckling, due to the expansion of the steel in the heat, there are things that can be done:

• Paint the rails with white paint, that helps to reflect some of the heat from the sun,
• Stress the rails more often (CWR/LWR has a stress free temperature, above this temperature, if the rails get hotter, this is when there is a risk of the rails buckling, but if you cut-out a small section and then weld up the rails again (to join them), you increase the stress free temperature, however, when the hot period ends, the rails need stressing again, to reduce the stress free temperature otherwise the risk of a broken rail increases as the weather gets colder and all of this work costs money).
• The position, inspection and maintenance of expansion joints will likely be needed,
• For jointed track, more management of the the gap in the joints may be needed,
• The ballast level may need to be better maintained, as a lack of ballast may in some cases increase the risks of the rails buckling,
• The metal anchors/plates (sorry, can't remember their proper name) fitted to sleepers to reduce the sideways movement may need to be fitted in more areas,
• Increased maintenance of the track formation may be needed,
• More frequent routine track inspections may be needed.

Then there are other measures that may be needed for structures, embankments, cuttings etc.

For wetter weather, other measures will be needed.

 

[devon_belle]

And all the above could be done, then we'd only have to deal with drainage, soil moisture deficit, flooding, foliage/wires/trampolines in storms, etc. I don't think the railway is ready for what is likely to be coming. If climate change brings a wider range of weather conditions to the UK then the railway will have to adapt (and cope) with increased levels of nearly every environmental challenge it currently faces.

 

[minimann]

And all the above could be done, then we'd only have to deal with drainage, soil moisture deficit, flooding, foliage/wires/trampolines in storms, etc. I don't think the railway is ready for what is likely to be coming. If climate change brings a wider range of weather conditions to the UK then the railway will have to adapt (and cope) with increased levels of nearly every environmental challenge it currently faces.

Agree. For the most part our network was built for a world that no longer exists. Being the first also means everyone else learns from our mistakes.

We will see greater extremes and shutting down UK plc when the wind blows, the rain falls or the sun shines clearly is not a sustainable response if we want a growing and thriving railway. That said the level of investment required is money the railway will never get, asset conditions are not the best anyway so adding this dimension is a challenge.

One suspects tactical interventions in high risk areas, more active management of the estate and sensible restrictions alongside possibly restressing the rails is where we will need to head but increased weather closures will be the short term response.

 

[Bikeman78]

** if it hasnt melted

I drove from Pwllheli to Cardiff today. Temperature in the 30s, no melted roads and air con working fine. Basically no different to driving the route on any other day.

 

[speedy1]

And all the above could be done, then we'd only have to deal with drainage, soil moisture deficit, flooding, foliage/wires/trampolines in storms, etc. I don't think the railway is ready for what is likely to be coming.

Agreed

...the railway will have to adapt (and cope) with increased levels of nearly every environmental challenge it currently faces.

But it won't. The UK likes to ignore problems for decades then drag its feet.

The gov knows tackling all the issues will result in a large expense and a more expensive railway going forward. It's already one of the most expensive railways in the world. What more can the treasury and the public take?

 

[Envoy]

I drove from Pwllheli to Cardiff today. Temperature in the 30s, no melted roads and air con working fine. Basically no different to driving the route on any other day.

Good job you did not use the trains as the entire Cambrian line got shut down - presumably because the Class 158 trains don't have working air con and only 4 small hopper windows per coach. Goodness knows when the new Class 197’s will take over the Cambrian routes?

 

[Bantamzen]

HIghly likely to be withdrawing services when the temperature exceeds a certain level just as happens now with storms. We dont have a resillent railway and no chance of investment to make it one.

Long term that simply isn't going to be economically viable. Even the odd day every year of shutting down large parts of the network can cause serious economic harm, but it becoming a regular go-to every time the temperature goes over a certain amount will have a massive & negative effect. If people can't get to work by train, many people don't get paid, many businesses don't make sales, tax revenue is lost, and money doesn't reach the parts of the economy that need it the most. Over a sustained period of time that would lead to more job losses as business call it a day, meaning even less people in employment, paying much less tax and relying more heavily on benefits.

So somewhere along the line the industry is going to have to decide how to best mitigate future issues, whilst continuing to provide some kind of service. But just giving up every time it gets a bit difficult is not an option.

 

[KevinTurvey]

I am speaking from a north of England perspective, but I recall the later 80's and earlier part of the 1990s we had a run of hot summers, much warmer than the early 80's. I recall 1984, 1990 and 1995 being particularly warm and sunny, 1981 to 1983 the exact opposite. From 2000 to 2006 we had a run of mild winters. From about 2007 to about 2015 some very disappointing summers with a lot of rain, and very cold winters. We have not had a summer like this since 1976 (without ladybirds, and also a new Prime Minister, and a Chancellor called Mr Healy!)

Can we really predict accurately the weather over the next 50 years, as there are so many organisations with vested interests on both sides of the climate debate.

 

[Zomboid]

It's not just the rail industry of course.

The roads might not be melting too much this year, but that does happen in extreme heat, and whilst there are many factors involved, the increased numbers of potholes are also influenced by the winter effects of climate change.

The schools infrastructure is also struggling, we had a week of early finishes in the July heatwave because the buildings aren't designed to cope with such conditions. Homes weren't designed for it...

When it eventually does rain, there will most likely be some serious damage caused by flash flooding, and we will have more serious winter storms to contend with.

Every single part of our national infrastructure is being taken beyond it's normal operating window and things are failing. Rail will have to make the adjustments it can, but I don't think anyone really grasps the scale of what we're staring down the barrel of.

 

[PartyOperator]

A few simple things - paint the rails white, increase the stress-free temperature (winter minimums are up too), get better at cutting back flammable vegetation.

Develop a hot weather timetable and try to announce it a couple of days in advance so people can make plans. Trying to run the best possible service that then falls apart is much worse. Obviously can't plan for a derailment or loss of power, but it would help to run fewer, slower, longer, air conditioned trains with sensible connections rather than fast frequent trains from everywhere to everywhere.

Long term - build HS2 in its entirety, to a modern standard that can cope with the temperature range (still much less than China and Japan experience every year). Ideally keep building. Then don't need to flog the conventional lines quite as hard.

 

[Magdalia]

Great British Railways: let the train take the strain, but only in March, April#, May, September^ and October*

For everything else, there's the road network.

*Depending how many leaves fall
^After the kids are back at school
#If there isn't too much rain

I have been restricting my travel by rail almost entirely to these months since Covid.

Some mild winters I have been able to travel in early November or late February. This year I haven't travelled by rail since 8 May because the summer heat started so early.

 

[devon_belle]

Can we really predict accurately the weather over the next 50 years, as there are so many organisations with vested interests on both sides of the climate debate.

The weather? No. Climate trends? With increasing certainty, yes. We are seeing more frequent, longer, and hotter heatwaves in the UK, with recent decades being hotter on average than all those back to when records began. There is consensus on that because of the available data. As for the future, we can only extrapolate what is a practically intractible problem, but for example wars over food, water, and fuel are considered to be a considerable threat to UK security in the future (e.g. this report). Globally, there's a lot going on with the emerging El Nino (related to above-average tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures) which is ramping up to historic levels meaning a very serious summer for Australia with poorly-understood effects for the rest of Europe. I know several climate scientists who expect 2027 to blow 2026 out of the water.

Issues on the railway are comparably minor compared to all that, but lots of people and businesses rely on rail and I agree with above posters that the railway just giving up every time it's very hot, very cold, very wet, or very dry is not a sustainable strategy. The fact that some (ex)-TOCs seem to handle the heat fine and others fall apart almost immediately with no chance of recovery should be seriously investigated. For unavoidable work reasons I have had to commute into London on every one of the hottest days so far this year, and I am fortunate not to have been disrupted so far (Southern). Other companies may have a lot to learn.

 

[yorksrob]

Presumably this will end up with the rails being tensioned for higher routine temperatures.

 

[bramling]

It's not just the rail industry of course.

The roads might not be melting too much this year, but that does happen in extreme heat, and whilst there are many factors involved, the increased numbers of potholes are also influenced by the winter effects of climate change.

The schools infrastructure is also struggling, we had a week of early finishes in the July heatwave because the buildings aren't designed to cope with such conditions. Homes weren't designed for it...

When it eventually does rain, there will most likely be some serious damage caused by flash flooding, and we will have more serious winter storms to contend with.

Every single part of our national infrastructure is being taken beyond it's normal operating window and things are failing. Rail will have to make the adjustments it can, but I don't think anyone really grasps the scale of what we're staring down the barrel of.

Presumably the next problem is going to be that we now have millions of stressed trees, so presumably can expect issues if/when we do get heavy rain or wind.

 

[HSTEd]

Well various slab track systems are reportedly much more resistant to these sorts of temperature-induced buckling events.

But I'm not sure we can fundamentally escape surface conditions whilst the railway remains in the open. As storms, heatwaves and (depending on what happens to AMOC) even coldsnaps become more extreme, surface conditions are going to just keep getting worse.

It'd be very expensive, but there are locations where relatively short sections of new railway (including in tunnels) could replace larger lengths of the older railway. Much of the old railway infrastructure predates modern standards and I'm not sure how much we can depend on it to hold up.
And then there are locations like Shap where the high altitude sections of the railway are very exposed to climatic events.

 

[Waterlemon]

I believe it was part of the HS2 rolling stock spec that passenger trains would be able to monitor track geometry to save them from needing a dedicated high speed track recording train. As GSM-R is replaced with a much higher bandwidth system I hope we see a large % of passenger fleets fitted with track recording devices.
That way track quality data can be captured and analysed at multiple points daily rather than once every 2 weeks or so when the yellow trains happen to cross over a particular section.
This would enable a much more proactive maintenance approach than currently as instead of getting a load of defects in every few weeks from the yellow train. Maintenance crews could see sections deteriorate in real time and triage/plan accordingly.

 

[eldomtom2]

I believe it was part of the HS2 rolling stock spec that passenger trains would be able to monitor track geometry to save them from needing a dedicated high speed track recording train.

I believe this is fairly normal for HSR today. I know Japan is retiring the dedicated monitoring trains for the Shinkansen.

 

[Annetts key]

I believe it was part of the HS2 rolling stock spec that passenger trains would be able to monitor track geometry to save them from needing a dedicated high speed track recording train. As GSM-R is replaced with a much higher bandwidth system I hope we see a large % of passenger fleets fitted with track recording devices.
That way track quality data can be captured and analysed at multiple points daily rather than once every 2 weeks or so when the yellow trains happen to cross over a particular section.
This would enable a much more proactive maintenance approach than currently as instead of getting a load of defects in every few weeks from the yellow train. Maintenance crews could see sections deteriorate in real time and triage/plan accordingly.

Already there is video recording and monitoring of the OHL from some regular passenger service trains. You don't need to wait for a higher bandwidth radio link, the recorded data can be downloaded when the train returns to the depot for overnight light maintenance / cleaning. Of course, the trains would need to be fitted with the required equipment.