Yes longer trains is the elephant in the room that no one has wanted to talk about but not in the way you think - it is the comparative lack of stock at GTR especially Southern resulting in shorter than max length trains on many routes. No platform work needed just more units!
So basically lost a net 184 vehicles, and now expected to carry thousands of extra airport users.
Not a direct correlation to services at Gatwick though.
It seems somewhat unlikely that they would be needed on day one in any case. Thameslink provides plenty of capacity through Gatwick that seens rarely to be full to standing capacity.
Equally, if Networker replacement included the 376s, they could release Southern Metro 377s to bolster coast services. Signs don't look promising for that though.
I had to go back and look at the Gatwick expansion strategy. If you read it and combine it with airlines aim to utilise planes, airlines often aim to do double out and back to destinations (maybe even third trip for shorter routes) then looks like could be quite a lumpy distribution during the day.
I agree a curve at Redhill would be more complex, but with the NDL there's a lot of potential for passenger growth that could benefit Gatwick by reducing congestion in the local area (especially as the local road network west of Gatwick is mostly poor quality single carriageways outside of the M25/M25) and inducing demand to fly from Gatwick with a better, more reliable rail connection from the west.
Are any of the stations on the Brighton Main Line currently able to accommodate 16 car trains? Or are capable of being extended to do so?
I have never encountered traffic on these roads, having used many of them at nearly all times of day except 1am-5am. The traffic is invariably in and around Gatwick (and Redhill and Crawley) itself.
Honestly, I haven't been on many trains east of Guildford that I would consider uncomfortably full. The main churn seems to be at Guildford then again at Redhill. I don't travel regularly but have covered a lot of times of day. In particular, Betchworth, Gomshall and Chilworth are very quiet and probably don't have much potential for additional Gatwick passengers. Guildford could be grown, but there's not much stopping it if the potential was there. From Reading is rather slow and not well served early and late in the day.
I can't think of any. None of the key stations look easy to extend either, but of course if there was enough of a will it could be done. I think the studies simply brought up the idea to demonstrate why it was unfavourable compared to unblocking capacity for more frequent trains. The crayonista gold standard for that is double-decking the line from East Croydon to Victoria.
All I know is that there has been issues in the Reigate area particularly - some of this may be unrelated to Gatwick, but Reigate is definitely somewhere where NDL improvements could help with airport access.
The potential for growth is partially limited by the rolling stock though. The 769s were designed to permit potential through services beyond Reading and a capacity increase to encourage growth.
Not currently
Yes in sense wouldn't need extra land, however it would mean moving junctions and signalling. Time consuming and hugely expensive, but theoretically possible. Although there would be better ways of spending a few billion pounds.
Afaik Reigate is a shortish platform, meaning that the half hourly Purley-Redhill service also has to be short. It has significant commuter traffic heading into London, and a large chunk of local traffic for the sixth form college. Not sure what, if anything, Gatwick has to do with it.
Yes Reigate is a relatively short platform, constrained by the level crossing to the west and sidings to the east on one side.
The LBSCR OHLE clearance to overhead structures was very low - you can still see the where they had to chip away the arches at the northern end of West Norwood station above the London bound track for example, complete with hook for the insulator to absolutely minimise clearance with no catenary wire!
Ahh, that makes more sense. I'm not sure how much difference it would make tbh, but I'm completely uninformed about the local road traffic
Unless significant volumes of traffic transitioned to rail + public transport/active travel, instead of driving to their destination?
The Raglan Road junction and the Zebra Crossing north of the railway don't help. Also the fact that there is no other practical route through the Reigate / Redhill area from the M25. A junction off the M23 on the east side of Redhill could help.
Really? You must have travelled at some very particular times of day. I'd be interested to know when. Certainly isn't full and standing all day.
Fair enough
Definitely not full and standing but have been using a lot recently and busier than I expected. Most trains have bays of seats with at least one person in all day - still not that much obvious Gatwick passengers but mostly local passengers.
Agree - my car crosses often as I still live here
Not to mention GTR's poor utilisation of the units they do have - of course a certain number of units need maintenance done during the day, but the number of units which only do one or two services and sit in the depot/sidings during the day is staggering.
To add to this excellent post, passenger numbers between Gatwick and pretty much every single location listed have increased since Covid.
Bit of a chicken and egg argument, has service continued at reduced level because passenger numbers down, or are passengers down because service is cut and not so attractive.
Yes, but the service level is roughly 80% of what it was pre-Covid (and the non-ScamEx service level is unchanged), while usage is at about 70% of pre-Covid, so the decrease is still disproportionately high compared to the service cut.
Absolutely. Just going through the lists in your posts, its clear just how many people are changing at Clapham Junction to/from Gatwick services - from those lists, I've listed the stations where passengers would most likely be changing to get to Gatwick:
Although Thameslink have the benefit of being able to soak up many more passengers on the 700s before people start getting left behind, and the option of taking a slightly slower service via Redhill which loads much lighter off-peak.
This should absolutely be the first intervention, as well as harmonizing fares (removing GatEx pricing)
The busiest times at Gatwick don't line up with the "commuter" peaks, so adding stops to those 3 peak extras wouldn't really achieve a lot.
Could these not be extended to off-peak times? Or alternatively repurpose the Bedford-Littlehampton paths in some way if extra core capacity is required.
Eastbourne is odd one, from the list #10 it's obvious it it is being used as a railhead for direct trains to the airport from those in that area, so maybe airport trains need to continue towards Hastings/Ore
But it's become obvious from this thread, (even if people hadn't appreciated it before) from station-station usage and percentage changes since pre-covid that the old patterns of services no longer optimised for demand.
