I think the easiest way to compare this is arrivals into Waterloo:
6am - 7am was 2 now 1
7am - 8am was 5 now 4
8am - 9am was 6 now 5
9am - 10am was 4 now 4
3 trains, 2,100+ seats less per morning just on the Pompey Direct.
It’s actually worse than that because previously 3 trains skipped Woking, now it’s just one, so pulling passengers onto Pompey Direct trains which previously used something different.
It’s also worth noting that the proposed timetable changes would have put an additional service into Waterloo between 0645-0715.
Same in the evening:
4pm - 5pm was 4 now 3
5pm - 6pm was 5 now 4
6pm - 7pm was 5 now 4
7pm - 8pm was 4 now 4
Again, another 3 services missing, again a further proposal for a 6th service in one hour. Previously 5 services skipped Woking, now just 3.
Part of the issue is that SWR are not clear as to what market each Pompey Direct service is trying to serve. Fast services and stopping services used to be quite defined, now too many are semi-fast.
Taking the inclusion of Godalming on every service. Fine when a service is carrying fresh air, but now services arrive already full, squeeze a few more on, then trundle off to Guildford and Woking to take extra passengers again.
It’s why one service each way used to be non-stop Haslemere-Waterloo, as it was full and partially standing on leaving Haslemere (not that I vote for its re-introduction).
I’m under no illusion that the Pompey Direct is special, this problem exists all over the network. My big concern is that by the time you introduce the 701/5s, bring the suburban service back to pre-Covid levels, you won’t have any spare stock to displace, say, a 8x450 off an Alton, Basingstoke or Haslemere service onto a longer distance service.