How will Gatwick station cope with a second runway?

[ianBR]

In the morning peak in summer there are endless tourists with cases who struggle to get onto Thameslink services coming up from Brighton that are already full and standing. The moment there is any disruption or a cancelled train it is even worse.

How do they propose handling the huge increase in passengers that will result once a second runway is in operation with an extra 100k flights a year predicted (and passenger numbers rising from 43 million to 75 million)

 

[SECR 65]

I understand that Gatwick Express shuttles from Victoria to the airport are being introduced, to provide a 4tph express to the capital.

 

[ianBR]

Huge numbers of tourists have now realised gatwick express is a total rip off though hence why many of their services are usually pretty empty.

 

[PGAT]

Huge numbers of tourists have now realised gatwick express is a total rip off though hence why many of their services are usually pretty empty.

Will this or has this changed given that GX has merged with Southern as part of GBR?

 

[takno]

Huge numbers of tourists have now realised gatwick express is a total rip off though hence why many of their services are usually pretty empty.

They could put luggage limits on the Thameslink services. Might make Gatwick Express seem like less of a rip off if it's the only way they can get their wardrobe and kitchen sink up to London

 

[London Trains]

Huge numbers of tourists have now realised gatwick express is a total rip off though hence why many of their services are usually pretty empty.

Indeed, its absolutely ridiculous that you have these "fresh air expresses" taking up valuable paths on the BML and using valuable units that GTR could deploy elsewhere, whilst so many other services across the network are rammed full and some even leaving people behind.

If it is going to continue to exist, then arguably it should actually be cheaper than the standard fare, as it would push a lot of Victoria to Gatwick passengers off the Eastbourne, Littlehampton and Portsmouth/Bognor Regis services, freeing up plenty of capacity on those services without a single penny of extra money having to be spent on running extra services/longer trains. And the lack of a direct Clapham Junction to Brighton service really needs to be sorted.

 

[Vexed]

In the morning peak in summer there are endless tourists with cases who struggle to get onto Thameslink services coming up from Brighton that are already full and standing. The moment there is any disruption or a cancelled train it is even worse.

They wait for the 4tp Thameslink services that will be emptier having started from Horsham or Three Bridges?

I'm not saying it's not an issue but they are other services. However, the Southern services can't cope with luggage well and while the GX had more racks the aisles are still narrow.

Extra services to London will be needed but I think the GX stock and brand restrictions aren't the way to do it.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I understand that Gatwick Express shuttles from Victoria to the airport are being introduced, to provide a 4tph express to the capital.

Like this? (launched on 10th May 1984)

Picture shows a Class 73 hauling specially converted Mk 2 stock passing East Croydon on a London Victoria - Gatwick express. Credit: Facebook

 

[John R]

They could put luggage limits on the Thameslink services. Might make Gatwick Express seem like less of a rip off if it's the only way they can get their wardrobe and kitchen sink up to London

How would that work for those travelling beyond London, for whom Thameslink offers a through service? Are you really going to make them go to Victoria, then on the tube, then on another service north?

Similarly those for whom the connection at Farringdon offers a one change onto the Elizabeth Line.

 

[Snow1964]

One of the problems that needs to be thought about is where do airport passengers travel to/from by train.

When look at Origin and destination, start to see places like Clapham Junction, East Croydon, Finsbury Park, West Hampstead Thameslink being popular. Are these real destinations (seems unlikely) or where people changed trains and tickets, possibly switching to PAYG or cheaper tickets (seems more likely).

Top destinations from Gatwick Airport station are :
London Victoria 2,727,742
London Bridge 1,084,056
East Croydon 955,931
London Blackfriars 570,213
Clapham Junction 557,459

(so 2-5 combined exceed Victoria, so is Gatwick Express a minority service to London, and actually Gatwick express is serving wrong part of London)

Brighton 352,748
Farringdon 317,224
London St Pancras International 298,967

(so another 600+k wanting different London station than Victoria, more evidence Gatwick Express might be serving wrong London station)

Three Bridges 132,875
Hayward Heath 112,589
Horley 79,470

(is this airport workers, or those dodging expensive airport parking)

Finsbury Park 74,325
Reading 69,600
City Thameslink 65,239
Eastbourne 61,147
West Hampstead Thameslink 60,863

(some of these suggest people are connecting or driving to get a direct train, I suspect part of these numbers are not actual other end of journey to/from airport, but simply place to pick up a direct train)

Horsham 58,920
Guildford 58,159
Redhill 56,665
Southampton Central 54,496
Balham 53,420

(only now do we get below 1000 journeys per week)

Hove 47,515
Purley 43,562
Cambridge 38,775
Wimbledon 38,054
St Albans City 35,426
Crawley 34,963
Chichester 32,505
Shepherd's Bush 32,364
Putney 31,246
Havant 29,820
Burgess Hill 28,930
Lewes 28,440
London Waterloo 27,907
Portsmouth Harbour 27,710
Vauxhall 27,702

(there's another 150k for London, but with journeys that require a change of train, so now got to start considering connections to trains serving the airport)

Polegate 27,412
Worthing 27,202
Fratton 27,118
Tottenham Court Road 26,239
Luton Airport Parkway 26,191

(will stop there at the 500 per week, in the list, if I had carried on as far down as 10,000 per year, would have got places like Oxford or Bournemouth included, places that require change of trains, or with journeys of over 2 hours)

So if anyone is serious about expanding capacity, have to start considering how the service should operate, it is looking like Thameslink destinations are more popular than Victoria, so should the airport trains be running to somewhere like West Hampstead or Finsbury Park, serving 3 or 4 London stations then running fast to the airport. Until now some of these have not really been thought of as important.

Maybe some others in the list (eg Southampton need to have a faster or more frequent service. Perhaps there is a case for diverting the service from Cardiff, Bristol Bath etc to Gatwick via Chichester, rather than Portsmouth. And if Oxford is important, why not combine Gatwick-Reading and Reading-Oxford services. To serve expansion, need to cater for the masses, not stay stuck continuing a service pattern from decades ago because do nothing change-wise is easy option.

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Gatwick+Airport+%5B5416%5D

 

[John R]

I agree that Oxford to Gatwick feels like an easy win. The connection to prevent any conflict at Reading was put in with the Reading remodelling. And Oxford is not on the Liz Line, so doesn’t even benefit from a quick one stop change at Farringdon.

 

[Bald Rick]

In the morning peak in summer there are endless tourists with cases who struggle to get onto Thameslink services coming up from Brighton that are already full and standing. The moment there is any disruption or a cancelled train it is even worse.

How do they propose handling the huge increase in passengers that will result once a second runway is in operation with an extra 100k flights a year predicted (and passenger numbers rising from 43 million to 75 million)

It’s reasonable to assume that the maximum one way flows to/from the airport won’t change much in any given hour. But that the maximum flow will be sustained over many more hours, in both directions.

 

[moogal]

They could put luggage limits on the Thameslink services. Might make Gatwick Express seem like less of a rip off if it's the only way they can get their wardrobe and kitchen sink up to London

How dare people travelling to/from an airport take luggage with them. Do we want people to use the railway or not?

As others have already pointed out, Thameslink provides a really useful way to get to stations the north side of London without having to struggle through the mostly-inaccessible tube network.

 

[rmHawk765]

When look at Origin and destination, start to see places like Clapham Junction, East Croydon, Finsbury Park, West Hampstead Thameslink being popular. Are these real destinations (seems unlikely) or where people changed trains and tickets, possibly switching to PAYG or cheaper tickets (seems more likely).

This is simply the effect of linking multiple mainlines together. People change at Clapham from suburban SWR, East Croydon fron suburban Southern, West Hampstead from inner London, and Finsbury Park from the ECML. Additionally London Bridge is useful for those coming from Southeastern lines, and Farringdon has the Eliz.

So if anyone is serious about expanding capacity, have to start considering how the service should operate, it is looking like Thameslink destinations are more popular than Victoria, so should the airport trains be running to somewhere like West Hampstead or Finsbury Park, serving 3 or 4 London stations then running fast to the airport. Until now some of these have not really been thought of as important.

Thameslink gets so close to this but unfortunately it all goes wrong due to GTR's almost non-existent management during disruption and the fact that long routes heavily rely on that to in turn be reliable to the passenger.

 

[JonathanH]

I agree that Oxford to Gatwick feels like an easy win. The connection to prevent any conflict at Reading was put in with the Reading remodelling. And Oxford is not on the Liz Line, so doesn’t even benefit from a quick one stop change at Farringdon.

It isn't that easy a win though. The track capacity between Reading, Didcot and Oxford only goes so far, and there is a desire for services from Paddington to Oxford and the Cotswolds, CrossCountry services, Bristol to Oxford, freight to Southampton, and the stopping services that all have a claim on that capacity.

Oxford has a one stop change at Reading for Gatwick and a direct coach service so doesn't do too badly for Gatwick connections.

Keeping services simple and making interchanges convenient is the best way of serving a growing customer base.

 

[mrmartin]

It isn't that easy a win though. The track capacity between Reading, Didcot and Oxford only goes so far, and there is a desire for services from Paddington to Oxford and the Cotswolds, CrossCountry services, Bristol to Oxford, freight to Southampton, and the stopping services that all have a claim on that capacity.

Oxford has a one stop change at Reading for Gatwick and a direct coach service so doesn't do too badly for Gatwick connections.

Keeping services simple and making interchanges convenient is the best way of serving a growing customer base.

Isn't there "space" after reading because Liz line terminates there, and it's quad tracked until Didcot, so they could run on the relief lines until then?

Or is it Didcot Oxford that's the issue?

 

[cle]

Isn't there "space" after reading because Liz line terminates there, and it's quad tracked until Didcot, so they could run on the relief lines until then?

Or is it Didcot Oxford that's the issue?

There are some shuttles in their place, not fully though. But reinstating those 2tph (if that stretch is ever wired) - would be the priority, being 8 car and electric - and adding much needed Oxford to Didcot and Reading capacity back. Also inbound commuting from the likes of Tilehurst/Pangbourne to Oxford, might be appealing. Many good jobs there.

I do think Oxford-Gatwick would be well used (also Guildford-Oxford maybe) and the conflicts are no longer - but if it was a 3 car diesel, hard to justify a highly in-demand path between Reading / Didcot and Oxford.

So if anyone is serious about expanding capacity, have to start considering how the service should operate, it is looking like Thameslink destinations are more popular than Victoria, so should the airport trains be running to somewhere like West Hampstead or Finsbury Park, serving 3 or 4 London stations then running fast to the airport. Until now some of these have not really been thought of as important.

Hmmm... you are excluding Clapham Junction from the GatEx/Victoria bashing... that is another 500k and adding those services into Southern with calls at CJ would be a great help. It far exceeds Thameslink in that estimation.

Also there is no 'wrong' part of London - Victoria is a massive hub for many things, including a much faster 'thameslink' line than Thameslink itself. If I was going from Gatwick or East Croydon to Euston, as surely many do - no brainer.

 

[boiledbeans2]

Indeed, its absolutely ridiculous that you have these "fresh air expresses" taking up valuable paths on the BML and using valuable units that GTR could deploy elsewhere, whilst so many other services across the network are rammed full and some even leaving people behind.

Here's a radical suggestion.

The Thameslink and Southern services run non-stop through Gatwick.

This would force the travellers to use GX.

The Thameslink and Southern could stop at Redhill instead, allowing changing between various GTR services (except GX), the North Downs, and Tonbridge lines.

 

[mickey]

Here's a radical suggestion.

The Thameslink and Southern services run non-stop through Gatwick.

This would force the travellers to use GX.

The Thameslink and Southern could stop at Redhill instead, allowing changing between various GTR services (except GX), the North Downs, and Tonbridge lines.

That won’t work, for multiple reasons… how do people from the south get to Gatwick, if those trains don’t stop there? It’s not just passengers but airport staff too who use them. And not everything goes through Redhill, a lot runs fast on the avoiding line.

As ever, the answer to the OP’s question is ‘in multiple ways’. Make more N-S trains 12 car, with improvements to infrastructure where necessary to allow this. Redesign access to platforms at Gatwick to encourage people to spread out more, including better signage to help signpost which trains are longer. Equalise fares to push more people onto GatEx instead of the through services, at which point it would also make sense to stop at CLJ as well.

The Downs line will definitely receive some investment concurrent with the airport development, it’s recognised that there’s a lot of untapped potential there. Ideally the third rail would go the whole way, but that would require Network Rail to eat some humble pie so maybe not likely.

In an ideal world you’d use the Express paths up to Thameslink instead of Victoria, but that’s unlikely to work in reality as there just aren’t the paths through the core. That’s a shame as they’d be more useful that way. It’s not impossible if you put some of the Horsham/Brighton/etc Thameslinks back into Victoria, but obviously that’s a political as well as operational decision.

Of course this all assumes the airport development goes ahead at all. In the airline world it’s an open secret that a third runway at Heathrow would majorly screw Gatwick for 15-20 years until demand catches up, so it’s really a race to see who can get digging first. Gatwick remains by far the most sensible of those two options though.

 

[mister-sparky]

What a stupid idea! So how are people who are travelling to the airport by train, but not from Victoria, supposed to get to the airport??? people from Brighton, Guildford, Tonbridge etc. idiotic.

 

[martin butler]

Where is the most likely destination for passengers from Gatwick? I would imagine most would catch a train to Victoria, and then onward to their designation, and what's greater, inward flow, or outward? inward, people catching a train, to connect with a flight, already know timings etc.time of arrival, check in etc,

I would argue it's the outward, or return leg, your flights landed, you've cleared customs, got your luggage, now you just want to catch a train, most likely to Victoria, then onto another station, for your journey home, so ideally you need services, with luggage space that are frequent and fast,

the only option is a dedicated Victoria to gatwick non stop running aside other services that do stop at places like redhill, Clapham junction so people can still access other lines.

 

[A S Leib]

Also there is no 'wrong' part of London - Victoria is a massive hub for many things, including a much faster 'thameslink' line than Thameslink itself. If I was going from Gatwick or East Croydon to Euston, as surely many do - no brainer

Victoria also has Southeastern, and is, just about, the fastest route between the Medway towns, if not elsewhere in Kent, and Gatwick. There's the coach station, although most people would likely get a direct coach to Gatwick instead if available.

I'd wonder if post-HS2 the current West London line Southern service could go back to Milton Keynes, but if there's no capacity on the Brighton Main Line, even with East Croydon being an easier change, WCML to Gatwick passengers will probably stick with Euston and Victoria or Thameslink.

 

[Snow1964]

This is simply the effect of linking multiple mainlines together. People change at Clapham from suburban SWR, East Croydon fron suburban Southern, West Hampstead from inner London, and Finsbury Park from the ECML. Additionally London Bridge is useful for those coming from Southeastern lines, and Farringdon has the Eliz.

That's my point, some people must be changing at these, not starting or finishing their journey there, but if the origin/destination matrix is seeing it as end of journey, they must also be changing ticket types there.

Maybe some change to PAYG, or getting buses, maybe some have season tickets so buying add ons to the airport. But I suspect there is an element of some ticketing quirks that is forcing a split, not even a split bought as one transaction, so data can't be linked.

Of course if there is limited capacity, should short formations like a 3car diesel set be taking up line capacity.

As ever, the answer to the OP’s question is ‘in multiple ways’. Make more N-S trains 12 car, with improvements to infrastructure where necessary to allow this. Redesign access to platforms at Gatwick to encourage people to spread out more, including better signage to help signpost which trains are longer.

Signage tends to be fixed, not displaying variable messages, platform displays might show how busy next train is, but really need this info needs to be on multiple displays for next few trains right back to gate line so people are directed to most suitable lift of stairway for where there is space. At the moment you only get the info when you have plonked yourself and your luggage near bottom of escalators on a platform. Nothing to enco spreading out along platform length until already on platform which undermines having multiple platform access points.

Equalise fares to push more people onto GatEx instead of the through services, at which point it would also make sense to stop at CLJ as well.

Agree this links to points above, why are destinations like Finsbury Park, Shepherd's Bush, London Bridge etc so high up on the list, is it a ticket pricing problem, causing people to rebook, rather than a final destination

 

[sh24]

I don't think it's a ticket pricing problem per se, more that people changing from tube to National Rail will be using two different ticket options. I do when heading to Heathrow or Gatwick, PAYG on the tube and then a suitable NR ticket onwards. Finsbury Park, West Hampstead, London Bridge are all logical interchange points to the tube.

 

[rmHawk765]

Maybe some change to PAYG

London residents definitely switch to PAYG at the latest here - but then again you can ask the question of why you'd need to do this when contactless and Oyster are both valid to Gatwick.

For those living further out it could be valid to say they do this in reverse, using PAYG for the 2nd leg to Gatwick instead.

 

[Snow1964]

I don't think it's a ticket pricing problem per se, more that people changing from tube to National Rail will be using two different ticket options. I do when heading to Heathrow or Gatwick, PAYG on the tube and then a suitable NR ticket onwards. Finsbury Park, West Hampstead, London Bridge are all logical interchange points to the tube.

But that comes back to simple basic question, if people to/from airport travel to 1000+ stations, why has the PAYG system been limited to selected stations. Why was airport added if so many of its journeys are outside, it's someone specifying half a job. Why some not none or all. Feels like a poorly designed transition.

Look at the geographic map of PAYG area and Gatwick is close to a boundary, can go north, but not towards Southampton or Lewes, or many other stations in top 50 destinations.

 

[sh24]

But that comes back to simple basic question, if people to/from airport travel travel to 1000+ stations, why has the PAYG system been limited to selected stations. Why was airport added if so many of its journeys are outside, it's someone specifying half a job.

Lack of knowledge that PAYG extends there, legacy Oyster users, Zip card users, using railcard discounts etc etc. Lots of valid reasons why.

 

[The exile]

One of the advantages of the “old” 4tph GEx was the fact that there was always a train waiting at the platform - so no trying to board or alight in about 10 seconds with a load of luggage. IIRC if you were on a through ticket from/to beyond the NSE area the premium was effectively included.

 

[Taunton]

Victoria is not a particularly convenient place in London to travel to from Gatwick, the range of points Thameslink serve are better. London Bridge for anywhere south-east. Farringdon for the Elizabeth Line. Kings Cross and St Pancras directly. Etc. The belief that any old point called London will do is misplaced, the whole idea of Thameslink was to distribute passengers to various useful points, which it does.

 

[Cricketer8for9]

One of the advantages of the “old” 4tph GEx was the fact that there was always a train waiting at the platform - so no trying to board or alight in about 10 seconds with a load of luggage. IIRC if you were on a through ticket from/to beyond the NSE area the premium was effectively included.

Completely agree. End the price differential, ensure there’s an 15 min Gatwick Express service, do not advertise Southern services from Victoria as stopping at Gatwick (and advertise Southern services as terminating at Clapham Jct). I know that this is creating a fake destination (a bete noir for some on this forum) but it will help spread the load and stop coastway services getting rammed at Gatwick. And it was obviously easier when trains had headcodes and not written destinations.

As has been said London is a big place. As an aside is one placed the centre of Manchester where Upminster is Heathrow would be at the centre of Liverpool). Acknowledging the size while trying to get passengers onto trains with space has to be key.