Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Bald Rick]

Interesting, that's not what these plans show. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-plan-and-profile-maps-great-western-main-line, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-plan-and-profile-maps-hs1-hs2-link
They show a completely independent single-track tunnel interfacing only at the OOC box. Unless I'm reading them wrong? Could well be, I'm not an engineer.

The tunnel not being dug until 2027 is a lot less relevant than the tunnel designs already being complete.

Those drawings are correct. Also 13 years old, and a lot has happened since then. Not least more freight and lots more passenger trains on the North London Line.

 

[NCT]

It’s a pity that we didn’t opt for that proposal that had HS2 going all the way under London with an additional stop near Canary Wharf and then joining HS1 out the other side. Expensive to the nines but fantastic for connectivity in the long run.

Why combining HS2 and HS1 into a through operation would be a bad idea:

Wien Hbf and through vs terminus stations

Mod note: split from this thread I can actually see 4 daily EC services in each direction - one of them runs only between Bratislava and Wien Westbahnhof. Good spot on the Marchegg (Gr), I can't see that on the Scotty App. They do take nearly an hour from arriving at Hbf to arriving at...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[TheWierdOne]

Why combining HS2 and HS1 into a through operation would be a bad idea:

Wien Hbf and through vs terminus stations

Mod note: split from this thread I can actually see 4 daily EC services in each direction - one of them runs only between Bratislava and Wien Westbahnhof. Good spot on the Marchegg (Gr), I can't see that on the Scotty App. They do take nearly an hour from arriving at Hbf to arriving at...

www.railforums.co.uk

Aside from regional Eurostar and the odd Kent-North England services (1tph Dover to Manchester?), I wouldn’t imagine all that much through running. But you could have consolidated the termini of HS1, HS2 and Eurostar into one purpose built high speed station to facilitate easy interchange and tube connections. Stick it all in one station deep under Bond Street and Oxford Circus (nobody said I had to go for realism, crayons galore) and hey presto you have a direct tube link to every conventional London terminus, except the special star Fenchurch Street.

 

[NCT]

Aside from regional Eurostar and the odd Kent-North England services (1tph Dover to Manchester?), I wouldn’t imagine all that much through running.

Good luck building a business case for expensive infrastructure for 1tph.

(nobody said I had to go for realism, crayons galore)

I rest my case.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think it's safe to say that any hope for a Regional Eurostar and/or HS1/HS2 connection is dead in the water (especially since HS2 originally had most of it's paths dedicated to domestic trains). For what it's worth I think Crossrail 2 would be a better investment since Euston St. Pancras could provide a long corridor or travellator for passengers arriving from the north and wanting to transfer without having to lug their luggage down Euston Road.

As for future services, I reiterate my belief that Virgin and Trenitalia will be the only new regulars on the route for the foreseeable future with possibly SBB having a few daily services to Switzerland. I think Eurostar will probably be able to get their new Celestial fleet approved for Channel Tunnel operations to replace the E300s. I think that the 30 ordered now will mostly be for the Red services and the option for an additional 20 rests on getting more London services.

 

[signed]

As for future services, I reiterate my belief that Virgin and Trenitalia will be the only new regulars on the route for the foreseeable future with possibly SBB having a few daily services to Switzerland. I think Eurostar will probably be able to get their new Celestial fleet approved for Channel Tunnel operations to replace the E300s. I think that the 30 ordered now will mostly be for the Red services and the option for an additional 20 rests on getting more London services.

SBB wants to partner with Eurostar, and the order for international trains is more linked to replacing the 610s to Italy, Stadler has not done any trains above 260kph, and I don't see them starting now.

As planned, Eurostar will operate the CH routes, at least until SBB and SNCF relationship deteriorates a la TI/Renfe.

 

[Sorcerer]

SBB wants to partner with Eurostar, and the order for international trains is more linked to replacing the 610s to Italy, Stadler has not done any trains above 260kph, and I don't see them starting now.

As planned, Eurostar will operate the CH routes, at least until SBB and SNCF relationship deteriorates a la TI/Renfe.

I didn't know that Eurostar and SBB were planning a partnership (a joint venture of some kind?) but I think for the most part the Stadler sets have already replaced the 610s into Italy via the Gotthard Base Tunnel (I think the Milan route via the Simplon are still 610s but as I understand it that's a more windy route anyway). But in either case I still don't see any near future competitors beyond Virgin and Trenitalia.

 

[signed]

I didn't know that Eurostar and SBB were planning a partnership (a joint venture of some kind?) but I think for the most part the Stadler sets have already replaced the 610s into Italy via the Gotthard Base Tunnel (I think the Milan route via the Simplon are still 610s but as I understand it that's a more windy route anyway). But in either case I still don't see any near future competitors beyond Virgin and Trenitalia.

I am much less optimistic about TI than you are, TI France has bled €69M for Fiscal Year 24 (we don't have FY25 results yet) and growing since 2021

I know FS has no issues eating that debt, but it's still a signal that it isn't working as well as they had hoped and overextending is deadly for most companies.

I would rather see them steer the French domestic business into stabilizing the bleed and ideally turning a profit, than overextending endlessly then inevitably collapsing.

 

[HSTEd]

I'd personally be very surprised if any competitor service actually starts.

I think a lot of this appears to have been political game-playing more than anything.

 

[Snow1964]

I think it's safe to say that any hope for a Regional Eurostar and/or HS1/HS2 connection is dead in the water (especially since HS2 originally had most of it's paths dedicated to domestic trains). For what it's worth I think Crossrail 2 would be a better investment since Euston St. Pancras could provide a long corridor or travellator for passengers arriving from the north and wanting to transfer without having to lug their luggage down Euston Road.

I think the longer HS1-HS2 link is definitely dead, but a short spur from Camden viaduct at end of HS1 to a subterranean junction with HS2 is still possible even if it is restricted to 50-100km/h. The low speeds aren't really a massive problem as trains will be close to London terminus, so all trains are unlikely to be doing more than about 120-180km/h.

Whilst Eurostar might not be interested, I still don't think anyone can rule out some of the potential low cost operators operating a token number of trains to Birmingham or Manchester.

My reasoning is that some are happy to block book parts of the train and sell to a holiday tour company, and of course some of the low cost airlines serving UK do the same, allowing holiday groups to book multiple seats on their flights. I know some people would say no one will want a 7 hour holiday journey, but how many people get up at 3am or stay in an airport hotel, because check in is about 4-5am for low cost flight, or the return gets back late evening, too late for public transport home. Is a long journey worse than these options if it avoids airport hotel ?

Also by Late 2030s or 2040s when line might be available, the low cost operators will also have access to many multi voltage trains that are being demoted from front line service. So could potentially be fares nearer €99 (say £85), not the expensive no competition prices there are now.

I totally agree won't be a business market for trains to continue north of London, but I disagree that a few through trains carrying holidaymakers from UK, or tour groups from Europe won't exist as token number of through trains, for convenience of travellers

 

[signed]

I'd personally be very surprised if any competitor service actually starts.

I think a lot of this appears to have been political game-playing more than anything.

They will start, everyone from the UK Gov to Getlink wants them to start, which ones, we don't know

 

[zwk500]

I think the longer HS1-HS2 link is definitely dead, but a short spur from Camden viaduct at end of HS1 to a subterranean junction with HS2 is still possible even if it is restricted to 50-100km/h.

1. There's no space left through Camden Road, so this spur will need to widen the viaduct.
2. Creating a subterranean junction will, at this point, require either a shutdown of the Euston HS2 tunneling to permit the redesign (with all the contractual costs), or delivery of the designed tunnels and then shutting down HS2 for a period to break into the tunnels at a later point.
Neither are impossible, but both are going to rather nuke the cost side of any BCR. And politically, delaying completion of HS2 to Euston for the sake of token services for a mythical low-cost rail package tour operate isn't going to be acceptable.

Whilst Eurostar might not be interested, I still don't think anyone can rule out some of the potential low cost operators operating a token number of trains to Birmingham or Manchester.

I think you can, because the cost base for operating trains requires the tickets to start at a point where a Low cost tour operate can't get a competitive price on a package deal to Amsterdam vs flying.

I totally agree won't be a business market for trains to continue north of London, but I disagree that a few through trains carrying holidaymakers from UK, or tour groups from Europe won't exist as token number of through trains, for convenience of travellers

A token number won't make any economic sense to staff juxtaposed borders. So your plan would require joining Schengen. I don't see that happening in the next 15 years (i.e. by 2040).

 

[Bald Rick]

I think the longer HS1-HS2 link is definitely dead, but a short spur from Camden viaduct at end of HS1 to a subterranean junction with HS2 is still possible even if it is restricted to 50-100km/h. The low speeds aren't really a massive problem as trains will be close to London terminus, so all trains are unlikely to be doing more than about 120-180km/h.

There is no provision for any such junction at Camden, and never has been. To create it needs new consents, new designs, and easily a 4-5 year delay to the tunnels where the TBMs are well on their way. Given what else is underground in the Camden / South Hampstead area, it may well not be possible, hence why the route linked to by @zwk500 was chosen.

 

[Sorcerer]

I am much less optimistic about TI than you are, TI France has bled €69M for Fiscal Year 24 (we don't have FY25 results yet) and growing since 2021

I know FS has no issues eating that debt, but it's still a signal that it isn't working as well as they had hoped and overextending is deadly for most companies.

I would rather see them steer the French domestic business into stabilizing the bleed and ideally turning a profit, than overextending endlessly then inevitably collapsing.

I think Trenitalia are more likely than Gemini just based on the fact that they have experience operating in other countries and have rolling stock that could easily meet the Channel Tunnel safety requirements. I think Virgin are the most likely just because they already have depot space allocated to them, but I still wouldn't rule out Trenitalia as the next big competitor.

I'd personally be very surprised if any competitor service actually starts.

I think a lot of this appears to have been political game-playing more than anything.

I think Virgin are quite likely to start operations soon since they have a depot and rolling stock selection. They just need to find paths and get them approved on all sides of the English Channel. By contrast I think Gemini are highly unlikely and are mostly just testing the waters with their ideas. I don't think the London-Continent market will be quite as competitive as the air market; I wouldn't bet on more than three at a time personally.

 

[martin2345uk]

I think there’s a lot of work to do at Temple Mills before it can accommodate a different type of train

 

[zwk500]

I think there’s a lot of work to do at Temple Mills before it can accommodate a different type of train

Although it presumably needed work for the e320 introduction, and will need it for the new Eurostar fleet if that is intended to operate to London.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think there’s a lot of work to do at Temple Mills before it can accommodate a different type of train

If that is the case I actually wouldn't put it past Virgin to be willing to front some of the cost for that if absolutely necessary. Given they were prepared to help finance a full fleet extension for the Pendolinos (which sadly didn't happen) I think there's a chance they would help pay for Temple Mills improvements if it means they can run profitable and prestigious services and pay it back in the long-term. I'd certainly hedge my bet on them doing that before reopening Ebbsfleet and Ashford.

 

[zwk500]

If that is the case I actually wouldn't put it past Virgin to be willing to front some of the cost for that if absolutely necessary. Given they were prepared to help finance a full fleet extension for the Pendolinos (which sadly didn't happen) I think there's a chance they would help pay for Temple Mills improvements if it means they can run profitable and prestigious services and pay it back in the long-term. I'd certainly hedge my bet on them doing that before reopening Ebbsfleet and Ashford.

If VTE don't pay it, who would? Eurostar are hardly likely to fund a competitor's operations.

2 very important lines from the ORR decision letter on Temple Mills (https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/2025-10-30-tmi-decision-letter-final.pdf)

3. ORR’s decision to approve the application from VTE [Virgin Trains Europe] will support VTE’s plan to provide passengers with significant additional opportunities for direct rail travel from London to Paris, Brussels and – later – Amsterdam. VTE plans to carry six million passengers a year, invest £700 million in its project, and create 400 new jobs in the UK.

7. As a result of our decision, VTE can now be confident of access to the light maintenance facilities it needs to deliver its planned operation. We now expect VTE and the facility owner, EIL [Eurostar International Limited], to work constructively on the detailed terms of access so that ORR can direct the formal contract promptly.

I suspect that how much of VTE's investment will be to in the depot itself is one of the items being discussed between themselves and EIL.

 

[Sorcerer]

If VTE don't pay it, who would? Eurostar are hardly likely to fund a competitor's operations.

2 very important lines from the ORR decision letter on Temple Mills (https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/2025-10-30-tmi-decision-letter-final.pdf)


I suspect that how much of VTE's investment will be to in the depot itself is one of the items being discussed between themselves and EIL.

I also suspect that if VTE invests into the depot improvements this would come with clauses such as guaranteed rights to the facilities it invests in which could make future competition a bit trickier. But honestly I don't see them not paying it forward since it's an enabling investment, and in this situation everybody wins. Virgin gets their depot and services without Eurostar footing the bill, and passengers get new options on the route. Eurostar might "lose" if you consider the loss of a monopoly but I think they'll still be in a strong position afterwards.

 

[TheWierdOne]

If VTE don't pay it, who would? Eurostar are hardly likely to fund a competitor's operations.

2 very important lines from the ORR decision letter on Temple Mills (https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/2025-10-30-tmi-decision-letter-final.pdf)


I suspect that how much of VTE's investment will be to in the depot itself is one of the items being discussed between themselves and EIL.

This does raise a point actually, where is Virgin doing heavy maintenance? The ORR decision does specify light maintenance. Presumably ECS moves to another UK depot are out, potentially they could use somewhere in Europe but I doubt Trenitalia or SNCF would be throwing open the gates.

 

[zwk500]

I also suspect that if VTE invests into the depot improvements this would come with clauses such as guaranteed rights to the facilities it invests in which could make future competition a bit trickier. But honestly I don't see them not paying it forward since it's an enabling investment, and in this situation everybody wins. Virgin gets their depot and services without Eurostar footing the bill, and passengers get new options on the route. Eurostar might "lose" if you consider the loss of a monopoly but I think they'll still be in a strong position afterwards.

Sorry, I perhaps should have been clearer - I believe VTE will pay for the required depot changes, mainly because nobody else will be putting up the money. VTE being given access to Temple Mills is effectively requiring Eurostar to invest in the depot for it's own operations if it wants to expand:
(from the ORR letter again)

13.Within its plans, EIL is correct to point out that significant new facilities will be needed for the second phase of its plans (the replacement of its fleet and possible new destinations). That it is why it has reached the conclusion that investing significant sums (up to £80 million) in a second maintenance shed at TMI is the most efficient way to support its new fleet from 2030. EIL’s incremental capacity needs for the first phase of its plans (an extra 8 services per day by 2030 leading to one further road per night being needed) would preclude other operators from being accommodated. This is consistent with our initial conclusion following IPEX’s report that capacity at TMI is only sufficient either to accommodate a maximum of one new entrant or for EIL to grow

So if EIL is putting up £80m for a new shed because VTE have taken the capacity they'd planned to use it, they're hardly going to put anything toward VTE.

This does raise a point actually, where is Virgin doing heavy maintenance? The ORR decision does specify light maintenance. Presumably ECS moves to another UK depot are out, potentially they could use somewhere in Europe but I doubt Trenitalia or SNCF would be throwing open the gates.

I'm fairly sure VTE talked about building their own depot, possibly on the continental side.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I'm fairly sure VTE talked about building their own depot, possibly on the continental side.

Wouldn’t surprise me. Given that they plan to go toe-to-toe with Eurostar on all of their routes a Lille location might be in the offing, as it would be central to all routes and provide some operational resilience.

 

[Sorcerer]

Sorry, I perhaps should have been clearer - I believe VTE will pay for the required depot changes, mainly because nobody else will be putting up the money. VTE being given access to Temple Mills is effectively requiring Eurostar to invest in the depot for it's own operations if it wants to expand:
(from the ORR letter again)

So if EIL is putting up £80m for a new shed because VTE have taken the capacity they'd planned to use it, they're hardly going to put anything toward VTE.

Interesting. I think both operators have a strong incentive to be investing in their depot facilities, but you're right to say they won't be putting anything towards each other.

Wouldn’t surprise me. Given that they plan to go toe-to-toe with Eurostar on all of their routes a Lille location might be in the offing, as it would be central to all routes and provide some operational resilience.

Lille would be interesting given it's central location, but would this be a heavy workshop depot or would it be a driver depot? I am lead to wonder if this would result in either a long empty stock movement to Paris/Brussels or if they would start a day with a Lille-London service.

 

[Bald Rick]

If that is the case I actually wouldn't put it past Virgin to be willing to front some of the cost for that if absolutely necessary.

I don’t. They don’t have that sort of money for risk.

Given they were prepared to help finance a full fleet extension for the Pendolinos

Finance is very different from funding. They were only prepared to finance it on the back of a guaranteed return.

 

[D6130]

What's the current situation with SNCF's Hellemes Works in Lille? I may be wrong, but I vaguely remember reading something - possibly in Today's Railways Europe? - that it was about to be rationalised, or closed altogether.

 

[Sorcerer]

I don’t. They don’t have that sort of money for risk.

It's not so much a risk as it is a capital expenditure to enable the business. If they don't have the appropriate depot facilities then they can't run trains, and it's not like Eurostar are going to graciously allow them to use their own facilities unless they are prepared to pay for it, at which point you've immediately put yourself at a disadvantage as the competitor.

Finance is very different from funding. They were only prepared to finance it on the back of a guaranteed return.

There was always going to be a return from a uniform fleet of eleven coaches. It brings maximum capacity to the network and allows more flexible diagramming and allocation. The DfT simply didn't want to incur the extra maintenance costs, but this is proving to be a mistake already due to capacity issues on nine-coach services (just look at some forum posts and threads).

 

[Bald Rick]

It's not so much a risk as it is a capital expenditure to enable the business.

Thats not how this type of operation works. Everything is oddsed off.

”Thinly capitalised ventures of the worst sort”, as some Civil Servant said of TOCs back in the 90s. (or sometimg similar).

 

[Snow1964]

Not actually a policy, but a briefing paper has been issued by Transport Environment regarding encouraging High Speed rail routes across EU. Includes policies about transferring short haul air to rail by tax changes etc.

Not strictly Channel Tunnel services, but might be relevant to way services develop and tax and emissions policies provides carrot and stick, so linking for background info (not going to quote it due to length)

https://uploads.transportenvironment.org/production/files/TE-_Position-Paper_High-Speed-Rail-Plan-INI_July-2026_Final.pdf?dm=1784887800

 

[Sorcerer]

Thats not how this type of operation works. Everything is oddsed off.

”Thinly capitalised ventures of the worst sort”, as some Civil Servant said of TOCs back in the 90s. (or sometimg similar).

I doubt anyone else will fund the necessary works unless London St Pancras High Speed or the DfT/ORR want competition badly enough that they'll pay for it. Otherwise Virgin probably won't be able to get any trains running, which after publicly announcing an intention to do so through flying banners at St Pancras would be quite the embarrassment for a brand where image is everything.

 

[CdBrux]

Presumably the infrastructure operator, including the tunnel, will get more revenue from extra services so should at least put some investment into enabling their business to grow?