Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Bald Rick]

London can sustain it. Eurostar are charging £228+ for their cheapest single ticket tomorrow.

Not coincidentally, the cheapest direct one way flight Heathrow - Paris tomorrow is £232, and if you want to go after a normal 9-5 working day you’re looking at nearly £400. The cheapest from any London airport is £120 from Luton with EZY, and that is with only a small cabin bag (the size that Mrs BR can’t fit her stuff for one night away) Add in a bag and it’s north of £150, and you have to get to Luton. If you last London - Paris flight tomorrow, BA from Heathrow, have £611 pounds ready.

It is peak travel time as many schools have just broken up. Also London is absolutely awash with US tourists at present, and they do like a trip to Paris - the last two mornings have been more like NY Grand Central than St Pancras in terms of accents on the concourse!

 

[Sorcerer]

Don't count on that! There are an awful lot of UK expats in Northern and Central Italy.... possibly more than in the Dordogne!

But are they actually likely to take an over seven hour journey by train to London when a flight can be done in half that time? There's also the fact that not every British citizen in Italy will be from London.

 

[D6130]

But are they actually likely to take an over seven hour journey by train to London when a flight can be done in half that time? There's also the fact that not every British citizen in Italy will be from London.

Likewise not every British citizen in the South West of France will be from London!

 

[zwk500]

There has been (before Brexit) quite a few Eurostar headed out to the southern part of France, mostly winter (only if booked as part of a Travelski package holiday) but some Sun services have happened with a shuffle at either Marne la vallée (Disneyland) or Lille. Of course, since Brexit, services got quickly scrapped.

Of course, the south of France services also benefitted from an EU Subsidy to encourage international rail, ETICA. A 5-year subsidy is available for certain routes to allow operators to establish routes and generate the long-term market for it.

You can see some details on Getlink's page: https://www.getlinkgroup.com/en/our-group/eurotunnel/eurotunnel-railway-network/

The Marseille service's 5 years came up precisely as Covid hit, rather unfortunately...

 

[Snow1964]

Is it just me or is every Operator hedging their bets at the moment

Virgin ordered just 12 Avelia Stream, 300km/h but with tilt option, clearly don't really need tilt for London services, so is this a backup plan

Eurostar ordered 30 double deck Alstom 'Celestia' trains (Avelia Horizon type), and has 20 options. Without the options hasn't got enough to replace all the mid 1990s E300 and ex-Thayls red trains.

Trenitalia has added options to its ETR1000, initially adding 10, then more recently another 9, taking order to 74. It is committed to a base in Paris, having recently secured lease to develop depot, but of course could always use trains on other routes (not London)

Italio has just ordered 26 Velaro for Germany, but has 14 options which may or may not happen, and been no indication of where. They are all quad voltage so presumably could be extended to routes in multiple countries (and if intention was only to use them in Germany, why add all the complexity)

Renfe are trying to rush through an order to replace its original Madrid-Seville sets, but the quantity of 30 (with 10 options) suggests possibility of expansion. Apparently Siemens with Velaro and Hitachi with ETR1000 are only bidders for tight delivery timescale

SNCF ordered an additional 15 quad voltage Alstom Avelia Horizon earlier this year (taking total ordered from 115 to 130). That adds more capacity than the remaining older single deck TGV, so either there is expansion planned somewhere, or it allows number of older sets to pass to low cost divisions.

In May was announced that a Memorandum had been signed between Swiss Federal Railways, Eurostar and SNCF-voyageurs to develop Switzerland-London services, presumably this could potentially mean additional orders of Avelia Horizon trains for joint operation.

Sort of feels like Operators are targeting London (and if HS1-HS2 link goes ahead, maybe Birmingham or even Manchester), but making trains suitable for alternative services around Europe in case London isn't workable.

 

[signed]

Is it just me or is every Operator hedging their bets at the moment

Competition is incoming, so it smells like the incumbents are rushing to close the manufacturers' doors from the competition by mass ordering, and it's good PR to quote a London service.

Half of those London services won't ever see the light of day until serious station work is done at St Pancras and Gare du Nord anyways.

You also have Gemini, Claret, Illisto (Kevin Speed), that will be on the market (assuming they really have intentions to do so) in the near future for stock. If everyone orders at the same time, the new entrants will be in a proper pain situation

 

[Snow1964]

Competition is incoming, so it smells like the incumbents are rushing to close the manufacturers' doors from the competition by mass ordering, and it's good PR to quote a London service.

Half of those London services won't ever see the light of day until serious station work is done at St Pancras and Gare du Nord anyways.

You also have Gemini, Claret, Illisto (Kevin Speed), that will be on the market (assuming they really have intentions to do so) in the near future for stock. If everyone orders at the same time, the new entrants will be in a proper pain situation

Yes I agree, not clear if any of these will progress.

Gemini has partnered with Uber, and selected same Velaro train type as Italio (so is not really carrying any development risk), but to date hasn't ordered its proposed 10 sets. But if Siemens get the Renfe order (which of final two bidders is expected to be announced in September), then presumably will be more of a production queue.

Claret was looking at Paris-Lyon, but does have a former Eurostar head (Nicolas Petrovik) on its team. This one is more an aspiration for further South in France. I tend to think Illisto (Kevin Speed) is similar status.

There is of course Velvet which has ordered 12 trains from Alstom for Paris - Bordeaux region. But these aren't aiming at Channel tunnel routes either.

Another big scenario is that some will link up, or perhaps be taken over by another Operator, or services run as a partnership.

Also can't rule out one of these regional operators like Velvet, learning how best to be profitable, what works, what doesn't make money, then using that knowledge and experience to expand into other routes with little competition. At this stage can't rule out one of them taking on say London-Birmingham (and maybe later Manchester) in 10 years time.

If one of these operators do move onto HS2 nearer 2040, then that of course allows the service to be developed from other end. Effectively link two isolated services (if of course HS1-HS2 link is built) and get something like Manchester - Bordeaux or even Barcelona or Almeria. Might be pipe dream in 2026, but in a decades time when some of the low cost long distance operators have got experience, infrequent but cheapish long direct services might be normal. No guarantee all the low cost long distance airlines will survive if cheap long distance rail takes some of their passengers. Not everyone wants to change trains in London.

 

[Mikey C]

I can see a number of these slightly speculative, and slightly non standard, high speed trains being unwanted by the early 2030s.

 

[signed]

I can see a number of these slightly speculative, and slightly non standard, high speed trains being unwanted by the early 2030s.

All of that stock can easily be used on European services without any issues, and I see quite a few startup that would be rushing to collect the remains of failing startup at a bargain.

There is nothing non-standard about the Eurostar, Italo, Trenitalia and Velvet orders.

More stock delivered, even if by failing companies, is good for the future competition as the price would decrease

 

[martin2345uk]

The gradual fitment of ETCS to the Class 373s makes me indeed wonder about timescales for new eurostar channel-route stock

 

[signed]

The gradual fitment of ETCS to the Class 373s makes me indeed wonder about timescales for new eurostar channel-route stock

The new stock will magically pop up that fateful day in 2030

 

[Sorcerer]

Is it just me or is every Operator hedging their bets at the moment

Virgin ordered just 12 Avelia Stream, 300km/h but with tilt option, clearly don't really need tilt for London services, so is this a backup plan

Eurostar ordered 30 double deck Alstom 'Celestia' trains (Avelia Horizon type), and has 20 options. Without the options hasn't got enough to replace all the mid 1990s E300 and ex-Thayls red trains.

Trenitalia has added options to its ETR1000, initially adding 10, then more recently another 9, taking order to 74. It is committed to a base in Paris, having recently secured lease to develop depot, but of course could always use trains on other routes (not London)

Italio has just ordered 26 Velaro for Germany, but has 14 options which may or may not happen, and been no indication of where. They are all quad voltage so presumably could be extended to routes in multiple countries (and if intention was only to use them in Germany, why add all the complexity)

Renfe are trying to rush through an order to replace its original Madrid-Seville sets, but the quantity of 30 (with 10 options) suggests possibility of expansion. Apparently Siemens with Velaro and Hitachi with ETR1000 are only bidders for tight delivery timescale

SNCF ordered an additional 15 quad voltage Alstom Avelia Horizon earlier this year (taking total ordered from 115 to 130). That adds more capacity than the remaining older single deck TGV, so either there is expansion planned somewhere, or it allows number of older sets to pass to low cost divisions.

In May was announced that a Memorandum had been signed between Swiss Federal Railways, Eurostar and SNCF-voyageurs to develop Switzerland-London services, presumably this could potentially mean additional orders of Avelia Horizon trains for joint operation.

Sort of feels like Operators are targeting London (and if HS1-HS2 link goes ahead, maybe Birmingham or even Manchester), but making trains suitable for alternative services around Europe in case London isn't workable.

I don't see most of these operators seeing the light of day. The most likely in my opinion will be Virgin Trains Europe since they actually have a plan and depot access (though I don't recall the fleet order including tilt option since none of the routes justify it), and Trenitalia France. I can see SBB possibly getting new paths for future London to Switzerland services but these aren't likely to be as numerous as London to Paris or Brussels, and I also think Stadler might be eyeing up the chance for a international new high-speed train order.

 

[Bald Rick]

If one of these operators do move onto HS2 nearer 2040, then that of course allows the service to be developed from other end. Effectively link two isolated services (if of course HS1-HS2 link is built) and get something like Manchester - Bordeaux or even Barcelona or Almeria. Might be pipe dream in 2026, but in a decades time when some of the low cost long distance operators have got experience, infrequent but cheapish long direct services might be normal. No guarantee all the low cost long distance airlines will survive if cheap long distance rail takes some of their passengers. Not everyone wants to change trains in London.

As has been stated by me and others on here ad nauseam, services north of London are a pipe dream until the UK joins Schengen.

It costs a lot more to run a eurostar train on a c7hr one way journey of 900 miles than an A320neo on a2h journey of similar distance. You need the train to be nearly full throughout (as most A320neos are), and there is not the market to do those distances (and for those journeytimes) by rail from any group of UK regional cities to any part of Europe.

 

[Palmerston]

As has been stated by me and others on here ad nauseam, services north of London are a pipe dream until the UK joins Schengen.

It costs a lot more to run a eurostar train on a c7hr one way journey of 900 miles than an A320neo on a2h journey of similar distance. You need the train to be nearly full throughout (as most A320neos are), and there is not the market to do those distances (and for those journeytimes) by rail from any group of UK regional cities to any part of Europe.

I agree entirely without Schengen its a pipe dream, but I'd still have included an HS1-HS2 link to future proof. I'm assuming this would be considerably easier now than later. Probably moot as I think that ship sailed a long time ago.

 

[zwk500]

Probably moot as I think that ship sailed a long time ago.

Correct, HS2's design does not allow for the connection. Breaking into the OOC-Euston tunnels to facilitate it will be extremely technically challenging (i.e. expensive).

 

[Zomboid]

Correct, HS2's design does not allow for the connection. Breaking into the OOC-Euston tunnels to facilitate it will be extremely technically challenging (i.e. expensive).

Though they haven't actually dug the Euston tunnels yet have they?
Not that it's realistic to hope for additional HS2 scope at this point.

 

[JamesT]

Though they haven't actually dug the Euston tunnels yet have they?
Not that it's realistic to hope for additional HS2 scope at this point.

The TBMs have been going since January/March - https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hs2-tbm-progress.240683/page-24

 

[TheWierdOne]

Correct, HS2's design does not allow for the connection. Breaking into the OOC-Euston tunnels to facilitate it will be extremely technically challenging (i.e. expensive).

It’s a pity that we didn’t opt for that proposal that had HS2 going all the way under London with an additional stop near Canary Wharf and then joining HS1 out the other side. Expensive to the nines but fantastic for connectivity in the long run.

 

[zwk500]

Though they haven't actually dug the Euston tunnels yet have they?
Not that it's realistic to hope for additional HS2 scope at this point.

They've fully designed them to not have junctions in them.

The original plan for the HS1-HS2 link had, IIRC, an independent tunnel from HS1 to OOC itself so never interacted with the Euston tunnels. And AIUI when the link was dropped, OOC box was redesigned so there's no longer space for it (not to mention that you'd need to start boring it before the station reaches a certain completion level, like the Euston tunnels.

 

[Snow1964]

Correct, HS2's design does not allow for the connection. Breaking into the OOC-Euston tunnels to facilitate it will be extremely technically challenging (i.e. expensive).

It did have planned junctions, subsequently dropped, and that part of the tunnel is not being dug until 2027. From memory they were near King Henrys Road, Primrose Hill area (can't remember their exact location names)

So would still be possible to add junction step plate (even if rest of link isn't built at this stage) to future proof it.

There are precedents to allowing space for junctions, eg the Heathrow western loop step plates were added to allow T5 to T4 to T2/3 anti-clockwise loop, but tunnel has never been added

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s a pity that we didn’t opt for that proposal that had HS2 going all the way under London with an additional stop near Canary Wharf and then joining HS1 out the other side. Expensive to the nines but fantastic for connectivity in the long run.

That was never an HS2 proposal.

That was crayons by people who should know better.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jul 2026 ==

So would still be possible to add junction step plate (even if rest of link isn't built at this stage) to future proof it.

Not legally.

 

[rmHawk765]

If everyone tries to get into St Pancras no-one will end up getting in... the station only just about copes right now for Eurostar. The seating area past security is already full all the time. And do I even have to mention Gare du Nord? It's already a nightmare in terms of overcrowding when there is a whiff of disruption on Eurostar, and it physically cannot cope with a bunch of new operators.

 

[signed]

And do I even have to mention Gare du Nord? It's already a nightmare in terms of overcrowding when there is a whiff of disruption on Eurostar, and it physically cannot cope with a bunch of new operators.

I 1000% agree.

But at Gare du Nord, they could absolutely soften the blow if they actually strictly enforced their "do not arrive until 60min/75min" by putting someone down the escalators on ground level.

The issue is that people see massive queue, so, thinking they're going to miss their trains, they queue earlier and earlier. Which makes for more queues and more chaos (I am guilty of that anxiety when I should know better myself)

 

[TheWierdOne]

If everyone tries to get into St Pancras no-one will end up getting in... the station only just about copes right now for Eurostar. The seating area past security is already full all the time. And do I even have to mention Gare du Nord? It's already a nightmare in terms of overcrowding when there is a whiff of disruption on Eurostar, and it physically cannot cope with a bunch of new operators.

St Pancras is being renovated to cope with significantly higher numbers of international passengers. Gare du Nord is SNCF’s problem, although I suspect if SNCF did try to stall out expanding capacity it wouldn’t go down too well. What’s more likely is they will try and offload as much of the cost onto Eurostar’s competitors as they can without getting slapped by the EU for anti-competition activity.

 

[rmHawk765]

I 1000% agree, but at Gare du Nord, they could absolutely soften the blow if they actually strictly enforced their "do not arrive until 60min/75min" by putting someone down the escalators on ground level.

The issue is that people see queue, so they go earlier and earlier thinking they're going to miss their trains, which makes for more queues and more chaos (I am guilty of that anxiety)

I guess it works temporarily but it's not a permanent solution overall. If these new operators bring in thousands of additional passengers I doubt this would ultimately do anything. But to be honest, I don't even remember there being such a rule despite the fact that I was at Gare du Nord only a few months ago, which does prove your point.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jul 2026 ==

Gare du Nord is SNCF’s problem, although I suspect if SNCF did try to stall out expanding capacity it wouldn’t go down too well. What’s more likely is they will try and offload as much of the cost onto Eurostar’s competitors as they can without getting slapped by the EU for anti-competition activity.

Beyond making it suitable for use during Eurostar disruption I can't exactly blame SNCF if they do exactly this. Ultimately SNCF does not care whether Eurostar holds a monopoly or not over the Chunnel, they just care about the fact that a bunch of new operators want to use one of their stations which presently has no extra capacity, and as such SNCF can reasonably impose the upgrade costs on the operators in my view.

 

[signed]

St Pancras is being renovated to cope with significantly higher numbers of international passengers. Gare du Nord is SNCF’s problem, although I suspect if SNCF did try to stall out expanding capacity it wouldn’t go down too well. What’s more likely is they will try and offload as much of the cost onto Eurostar’s competitors as they can without getting slapped by the EU for anti-competition activity.

Note: SNCF Gares & Connexions is formally independent from SNCF Voyageurs and from the SNCF holding that owns Eurostar, so unless they are found to be colluding with SNCF Voyageurs/Eurostar (not saying they don't as I don't believe they don't collude already), they can drag their heels as much as they want.

And it would be surprising if they would be colluding anyways, as the lack of capacity would affect Eurostar more (due to ES running 12sth tpd) than whoever new operator that will likely only have a few tpd for the first few months/year. At the end of the day, both SNCF Réseau and SNCF Gares & Connexions would rather have more trains to pay for the bills but the state (through the private company SNCF Voyageurs) don't want to run more trains.

 

[rmHawk765]

St Pancras is being renovated to cope with significantly higher numbers of international passengers.

Ah, so that's why there's always something being done there! Well this is good to hear, the situation with the seating area is quite annoying when you show up with a good amount of time to your train.

 

[Snow1964]

Not legally.

As I understand it, could dig anything within the permitted deviation line that is authorised. There is provision to vary what is dug within this as required, so as not to stop work if problem occurs. If didn't have the extra legal power wouldn't even be able to bore a hole outside tunnel radius to inject grout legally if hit a wet spot.

Although when you consider how many of those underground Cold War bunkers and citadels were built (including those near St Paul's, London or centre of Manchester etc) off record. Or getting a Transport and Works order for extending a hole. Surmounting any legal problem is probably easier than financing the extra work.

 

[signed]

I guess it works temporarily but it's not a permanent solution overall. If these new operators bring in thousands of additional passengers I doubt this would ultimately do anything. But to be honest, I don't even remember there being such a rule despite the fact that I was at Gare du Nord only a few months ago, which does prove your point.

On every ticket it states when one should arrive, and it would be easy to have someone just stand there or just after the escalators before the queues checking that, sending people back down, and it would soften everyone's anxiety.

I wholly agree that Gare du Nord is wholly incompatible with more traffic but everything that can be done to help would be for the better.

 

[zwk500]

It did have planned junctions, subsequently dropped, and that part of the tunnel is not being dug until 2027. From memory they were near King Henrys Road, Primrose Hill area (can't remember their exact location names)

Interesting, that's not what these plans show. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-plan-and-profile-maps-great-western-main-line, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-plan-and-profile-maps-hs1-hs2-link
They show a completely independent single-track tunnel interfacing only at the OOC box. Unless I'm reading them wrong? Could well be, I'm not an engineer.

The tunnel not being dug until 2027 is a lot less relevant than the tunnel designs already being complete.